A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

I do agree that trading Verdugo makes some sense. But I'm of the opinion that Bloom will be looking to add, not subtract. This is much more like the 21 deadline than the 22 deadline.

 

Yeah! Austin Davis!

[Randy Red Sox]

like with Casas

Bloom signed Kike. Twice. Bloom did not sign a stopgap SS and left the door open for Kike at SS. Cora is a player's manager who gives players more than fair opportunities to play, even when they're struggling. In this case he went with Kike too long. I'd be willing to bet that he talked with Bloom a lot about the situation and Bloom was on board.

 

That approach of being "extra patient" pays off a lot too, IMHO.

[Dipre]

Why do you put your post above the quote?

[moonslav59]

We have 5 batters in the top 20 in MLB OPS since June 30th (70+ PAs)

Casas is #1 at 1.281

1.087 Duran

1.044 Devers

1.010 Yoshida

1.009 Turner

 

Wong is at .831 in 64 Pas

.814 Duvall in 61

.791 Refsnyder in 35

 

 

[moonslav59]

Why do you put your post above the quote?

 

He goes out of his way to make it more difficult for others to read.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah! Austin Davis!

 

Thinking more of Schwarbs, Iggy and Shaw.

[Bellhorn04]

Many trades are based on areas of depth.

 

It seems shocking, after last year's awful OF production, it is now one of our biggest and deepest areas of strength.

 

To a team like the Sox, the 2023 team might barely notice a "step down" from Dugo to Duvall/Refsnyder or from Duvall to Refsnyder and having to play a lefty OF'er vs a LHP more often. That is often the foundation of a trade.

 

We seem to r.eally want to hold any and all promising prospects, so I can see Bloom working out a 3 way trade involving Dugo or Duvall.

 

The player we get back, would in theory be a bigger step up at a position of higher need than any step down we may see in the OF.

 

For all we know, trading Dugo might allow Duvall and Ref to play more and do better than Dugo would have done. It's hard to know.

 

For the record, I would prefer seeing Dugo inn a Sox uniform for the next 1.3 years but show me the deal.

 

Offseason trades and deadline trades are completely different animals, though. Trade from a so-called surplus (Dugo) and part of your surplus (Duvall) gets injured, that's a problem hard to fix.

 

I think notin is probably on the right track thinking more of trading semi-scraps for a guy like Blackbyrd.

[Dipre]

Blackburn. Stop that.

[Maxbialystock]

Kike is NOT playing short for LA. Playing Kike after after announcing he would not play short was troubling shoeed his bias.

 

Yeah the whole planet is wrong except for Cora when it came to Kike.

 

I'm for one enjoying watching the Sox play without Kike.

 

The Sox won more games than they lost with Kike in the lineup. I think he got the starting SS job because two years ago his OPS was .786 (but just .629 last year) and Cora, like other Sox managers, wants good bats more than good gloves.

 

Kike's DWAR with the Sox this season, by the way, was +0.3. His overall WAR, however, was -0.7, mostly because his OPS was .599. Cora did recognize that both Reyes and Chang were more reliable SS's--primarily because Kike's throws from the SS position were erratic--but both have been on the IL this year and Kike has not.

 

I completely agree that Kike is better at 2b than SS, which is why that's where he played after Chang returned and where he is playing with the Dodgers.

 

I also agree it's good that he's gone now that both Chang and Reyes are back--plus Turner has shown some flair at 2b--but at the same time insist that the Dodgers would never have taken him back if he was the complete loser you paint him to be. You usually make a lot of sense, but your characterizations of both Kike and Cora are just wrong.

[notin]

So per Bloom, the Sox want a LHH middle infielder. I assume the plan is to platoon with Arroyo at 2b.

 

This raises some questions. The Sox have 4 bench spots on the roster. Refsnyder owns one. Alfaro is subletting another from Reese McGuire.

 

That leaves two bench roles for the LHH MI (we’ll count Arroyo as the starter), Chang, Duvall, and Reyes. Reyes Will get the DFA, and will most certainly be re-signed and optioned to Worcester if he clears waivers.

 

That leaves Chang and Duvall battling for the final spot. Both have played key roles this year. Who goes and how?

[notin]

Offseason trades and deadline trades are completely different animals, though. Trade from a so-called surplus (Dugo) and part of your surplus (Duvall) gets injured, that's a problem hard to fix.

 

I think notin is probably on the right track thinking more of trading semi-scraps for a guy like Blackbyrd.

 

It’s BlackBURN. He’s not singing in the dead of night…

[notin]

I do agree that trading Verdugo makes some sense. But I'm of the opinion that Bloom will be looking to add, not subtract. This is much more like the 21 deadline than the 22 deadline.

 

But haven’t we already sold off Kike?

[moonslav59]

Offseason trades and deadline trades are completely different animals, though. Trade from a so-called surplus (Dugo) and part of your surplus (Duvall) gets injured, that's a problem hard to fix.

 

I think notin is probably on the right track thinking more of trading semi-scraps for a guy like Blackbyrd.

 

If we trade Dugo or Duvall, we still have 4 OF'ers. An injury would force us to play Ref, everyday.

 

You do have to plan for these things, but right now, we have mega injuries to our staff, especially the rotation. That is known and needs to be fixed.

 

I'm not for handing Dugo or Duvall away. I'd want to see the deal, before I'd say, let's do it out of a positional surplus.

 

Other teams need OF help way more than we do.

Other teams are willing to trade pitching.

A third team may need to be involved to add prospects to the team trading away pitching, as not many contenders are trading away good pitchers.

 

If we can get a better and longer controlled pitcher by adding an OF'er, I'd consider it. I would not trade Dugo for a rental.

[moonslav59]

So per Bloom, the Sox want a LHH middle infielder. I assume the plan is to platoon with Arroyo at 2b.

 

This raises some questions. The Sox have 4 bench spots on the roster. Refsnyder owns one. Alfaro is subletting another from Reese McGuire.

 

That leaves two bench roles for the LHH MI (we’ll count Arroyo as the starter), Chang, Duvall, and Reyes. Reyes Will get the DFA, and will most certainly be re-signed and optioned to Worcester if he clears waivers.

 

That leaves Chang and Duvall battling for the final spot. Both have played key roles this year. Who goes and how?

 

I really like Duvall, but I think he will be the odd man out. (I said this weeks ago, too.)

 

That being said, when Story returns, there is not room on the 26 and maybe even 40 for...

 

Story

Chang

Arroyo

Reyes

LH'd trade addition

 

Maybe, we trade Arroyo. I'd rather play Chang than CA.

[notin]

If we trade Dugo or Duvall, we still have 4 OF'ers. An injury would force us to play Ref, everyday.

 

You do have to plan for these things, but right now, we have mega injuries to our staff, especially the rotation. That is known and needs to be fixed.

 

I'm not for handing Dugo or Duvall away. I'd want to see the deal, before I'd say, let's do it out of a positional surplus.

 

Other teams need OF help way more than we do.

Other teams are willing to trade pitching.

A third team may need to be involved to add prospects to the team trading away pitching, as not many contenders are trading away good pitchers.

 

If we can get a better and longer controlled pitcher by adding an OF'er, I'd consider it. I would not trade Dugo for a rental.

 

 

I’d like to deal Dugo for a SP controlled no next year. But I think with Rafaela and Abreu on the way up, he might not be a long term fix if he doesn’t extend…

 

But the Sox are going to face a bench crunch if they deal for a LHH MI (per Bloom’s quotes) and when Story comes back. At that point, Chang, Duvall and Reyes will be competing for one spot

[moonslav59]

I’d like to deal Dugo for a SP controlled no next year. But I think with Rafaela and Abreu on the way up, he might not be a long term fix if he doesn’t extend…

 

But the Sox are going to face a bench crunch if they deal for a LHH MI (per Bloom’s quotes) and when Story comes back. At that point, Chang, Duvall and Reyes will be competing for one spot

 

He may want to keep Chang with the lefty IF'er not Arroyo, but that would be much more likely if they played Story at 2B not SS, but that ain't happening.

[moonslav59]

I’d like to deal Dugo for a SP controlled no next year. But I think with Rafaela and Abreu on the way up, he might not be a long term fix if he doesn’t extend…

 

 

What "controlled pitcher" do you get for Dugo?

 

Not many teams are looking to trade good and controlled pitching for a 1.3 year good but not great OF'er.

[dgalehouse]

The " decimated " farm has produced Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Houck and more.

[Maxbialystock]

We have 5 batters in the top 20 in MLB OPS since June 30th (70+ PAs)

Casas is #1 at 1.281

1.087 Duran

1.044 Devers

1.010 Yoshida

1.009 Turner

 

Wong is at .831 in 64 Pas

.814 Duvall in 61

.791 Refsnyder in 35

 

 

 

Impressive numbers--and research.

[Maxbialystock]

Warren Buffett has always said no one can time the market. I think that principle applies to baseball players equally well.

 

Boy, is that true.

[moonslav59]

The " decimated " farm has produced Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Houck and more.

 

DD deserves credit, for sure, even if he barely knew who these guys were his last year here.

 

As it turned out, keeping Devers and these guys you listed look to be better than all the 20+ top prospects he traded away.

 

Thanks DD!!!

[Bellhorn04]

It’s BlackBURN. He’s not singing in the dead of night…

 

Sorry, the joke is based on him being a Paul Byrd type...

[Bellhorn04]

But haven’t we already sold off Kike?

 

Yes, but Kike was really sucking.

[notin]

The " decimated " farm has produced Duran, Casas, Bello, Crawford, Rafaela, Houck and more.

 

… all of whom were added after the decimation

Edited July 29, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

And from 2018-2020, it produced Houck and Dalbec. all of whom were added after the decimation

 

And none of the guys DD traded has done much, really.

[moonslav59]

And none of the guys DD traded has done much, really.

 

The only argument that is still valid might be, he could have gotten better returns, not “I wish we still had _____ instead of ______.”

[Larry Cook]

The trade for rosier was really smart

[notin]

What "controlled pitcher" do you get for Dugo?

 

Not many teams are looking to trade good and controlled pitching for a 1.3 year good but not great OF'er.

 

I imagine a 3 team trade with Verdugo going to Seattle or Cleveland.

 

As for pitchers, an oft-mentioned SP by me has 2.3 years left…

[notin]

Song DFAd

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/phillies-designate-noah-song-for-assignment.html

[moonslav59]

I imagine a 3 team trade with Verdugo going to Seattle or Cleveland.

 

As for pitchers, an oft-mentioned SP by me has 2.3 years left…

 

You better throw in Yorke to get a good one.