A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[harmony]

Columnist Jayson Stark at The Athletic surveyed "29 [anonymous] executives, former executives, coaches and scouts" about teams to watch as the offseason winds down:

 

https://theathletic.com/4213072/2023/02/17/2023-spring-training-mlb-insiders-predictions/

Subscription required.

 

The Red Sox received mention in the voting (voters could vote for more than one):

LEAST IMPROVED TEAMS (AL)

Tigers: 19

A’s: 16

White Sox: 12

Red Sox: 11

Royals: 10

Orioles: 6

WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING

Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox): 10

Jacob deGrom (Rangers): 9

Taijuan Walker (Phillies): 7

Xander Bogaerts (Padres): 5

Brandon Nimmo (Mets): 5

Andrew Benintendi (White Sox): 5

Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): 4

Mike Clevinger (White Sox): 4

 

MOST INTRIGUING SPRING STORIES (AL)

Ohtani/miscellaneous Angels subplots: 12

Yankees position battles/other Yankees: 5

Red Sox assorted dramas: 4

Rangers/deGrom/health intrigue: 4

 

The four most important spring injury comebacks

Fernando Tatis Jr.: 16

Chris Sale: 7

Michael Conforto: 5

Bryce Harper: 5

 

Chaim Bloom topped the voting on managers/executives "feeling the heat" on job security this year.

Edited February 17, 2023 by harmony

[moonslav59]

And Yu Chang is back, claiming the last 40 man roster spot vacated by Story

 

Yup. Middle IF'er it is.

[moonslav59]

How about the 13 game stretch to end August?

 

3 @ NYY

4 @ HOU

3 v LAD

3 v HOU

 

We end the season with 4 games at BAL.

 

Our west coast road trips are split into 3:

 

Mid May

3 @ SDP

3 @ LAA

(day off then 3@ AZ)

 

Mid July

(3 @CWS)

3 @ OAK

 

End July to early Aug.

3 @ SFG

3 @ SEA

 

[dgalehouse]

It is important for the Sox to get off to a good start. The MLB schedule makers have certainly cooperated in that regard.

[mvp 78]

Don't care. Yoshida is going to mash. Other former unnamed execs/scouts need to cry more.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Columnist Jayson Stark at The Athletic surveyed anonymous "29 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts" about teams to watch as the offseason winds down:

 

https://theathletic.com/4213072/2023/02/17/2023-spring-training-mlb-insiders-predictions/

Subscription required.

 

The Red Sox received mention in the voting (voters could vote for more than one):

 

 

Chaim Bloom topped the voting on managers/executives "feeling the heat" on job security this year.

 

Being Number One in two categories just goes to show how wrong the beat writers are about the Red Sox' "irrelevance."

 

Heat on Bloom just means his signings have been incendiary...

[jacksonianmarch]

I am still surprised Henry let the summer be dictated by the Bruins and Celtics. This iteration of the sox is embarrassing

[mvp 78]

I am still surprised Henry let the summer be dictated by the Bruins and Celtics. This iteration of the sox is embarrassing

 

The haven't even played a Spring Training game yet. Maybe not playoffs, but they'll have more wins than last year.

[Bellhorn04]

It's what can happen to a suspension bridge when cold March winds blow in New England.

 

2023 does feel like a suspension bridge season.

[Bellhorn04]

I am still surprised Henry let the summer be dictated by the Bruins and Celtics. This iteration of the sox is embarrassing

 

Read 'em and weep, Jax. Sox getting better, Yankees getting worse.

 

ZIPS Projected wins

 

91 NYY

89 TBR

88 TOR

82 BOS

78 BAL

[jacksonianmarch]

Read 'em and weep, Jax. Sox getting better, Yankees getting worse.

 

ZIPS Projected wins

 

91 NYY

89 TBR

88 TOR

82 BOS

78 BAL

 

Read them and weep? The sox are predicted to be 9 games worse than the yanks and you're happy?

[Hugh2]

Zips projections are garbage. And anyone would project the Yankees to win more games.

 

But the 2023 season is unwritten.

[notin]

I am still surprised Henry let the summer be dictated by the Bruins and Celtics. This iteration of the sox is embarrassing

 

Is it more or less embarrassing than a team that has spent roughly $2.875 billion on payroll over the past 13 seasons and not even played in a World Series?

 

Asking for a friend…

[Bellhorn04]

Is it more or less embarrassing than a team that has spent roughly $2.875 billion on payroll over the past 13 seasons and not even played in a World Series?

 

Asking for a friend…

 

Jax is the same guy who says Montas was a "luxury" this year.

[mvp 78]

Is it more or less embarrassing than a team that has spent roughly $2.875 billion on payroll over the past 13 seasons and not even played in a World Series?

 

Asking for a friend…

Same manager. Same GM. That franchise is treading water. Sad!

[moonslav59]

Same manager. Same GM. That franchise is treading water. Sad!

 

Keeping Cashman and Boone is the best thing that's happened for the Sox since JH took over control.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Keeping Cashman and Boone is the best thing that's happened for the Sox since JH took over control.

 

Can't believe there's so many posters making fun of the greatest team in the history of the first half of last season.

[moonslav59]

Are we all in agreement, that as of today, Chang will be the 26th man?

[harmony]

Columnist Jayson Stark at The Athletic surveyed "29 [anonymous] executives, former executives, coaches and scouts" about teams to watch as the offseason winds down:

 

https://theathletic.com/4213072/2023/02/17/2023-spring-training-mlb-insiders-predictions/

Subscription required.

 

The Red Sox received mention in the voting (voters could vote for more than one):

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chaim Bloom topped the voting on managers/executives "feeling the heat" on job security this year.

By another measure, MLB.com ranks the Red Sox in a tie for fifth among the most improved teams this offseason:

 

Teams that improved most in 2022 2023 offseason

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Who improved the most this offseason? It's a very different question than "who won the winter," which is largely, for lack of a better term, about vibes. We’re not saying improved since the last time you saw them on the field. We’re saying improved since the 2022-23 offseason officially began,

[notin]

Are we all in agreement, that as of today, Chang will be the 26th man?

 

Does it matter?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hearing a lot of speculation on who might be in next year's sweepstakes for Ohtani. Favorites are NY, NY, and all the West Coast teams.

 

Any combination of reasons for him coming to Boston are said to include (not necessarily in this order)... 1. improvement by the Red Sox, 2. New Balance incentives, 3. Yoshida and other potential recruits (Yamamoto, Sasaki, Murakami, or the next star of the WBC), 4. New GM encouraged by ownership to spend on #3 and Shohei.

 

What else you got?

[moonslav59]

Does it matter?

 

Trying to find one thing...

 

He's got a ML deal, so I guess there is noe real choice.

[moonslav59]

By another measure, MLB.com ranks the Red Sox in a tie for fifth among the most improved teams this offseason:

 

Teams that improved most in 2022 2023 offseason

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Who improved the most this offseason? It's a very different question than "who won the winter," which is largely, for lack of a better term, about vibes. We’re not saying improved since the last time you saw them on the field. We’re saying improved since the 2022-23 offseason officially began,

 

I pretty realistic take, although not too in depth.

 

Only Yoshida is a longer term deal other than the mega Devers extension, which begins, next season, but a lot more 2 year deal and 2nd year options than any other season under Bloom.

 

Jansen $32M/2

 

Martin $17.5M/2

 

Turner $22M/2 (player option for '24 included)

 

Kluber $10M (with incentives) + $11M club option (no buyout)

 

Bleier $3.5M + $3.75M option ($250K buyout)

 

J Rodriguez $1.5M+ $4.25M option ($500K buyout)

 

Chang $850K + 2 arbs

 

W Mills Pre-arb

 

(We added McGuire at the deadline: $1.25M + 2 arbs)

 

One year players added, or extended:

 

Kike $10M

Duvall $7M

Paxton $4M

Mondesi $3.1M

 

[notin]

Trying to find one thing...

 

He's got a ML deal, so I guess there is noe real choice.

 

$850K. He could be cut.

 

But it doesn’t matter who we agree is the 26th man. Heck, Chang might be further up the ladder than that with an injury or two…

[moonslav59]

Since this is the "realistic thread," I'm going to try and present the most optimistic, pink glasses look at the 2023 Red Sox, while still remaining as close to keeping it real, as possible. Just a start with the pitchers. I'll do the hitters, later.

 

Chris Sale: Why not start with the biggest swing/question mark on the roster? Although he turns 34 in March, it's not like pitchers have never had career or near career years at his age- surgeries and all. His first 2 seasons with the Sox were about as good or better than any other 2 year stretch by a Sox pitcher in history.

59 GS

29-12 2.56 (175 ERA+)

0.924 WHIP and 7.1 K/BB

If he can come anywhere near these numbers, watch out MLB!

 

Corey Kluber: Look at the same 2 years as Sale above ('17-'18)

62 GS

38-11 2.58 (172 ERA+)

0.932 WHIP and 7.0 K/BB

Kluber and Sale could be called the best pitchers from 2014-2018. We are far enough removed from then to have realistic hopes of repeating those numbers, but coming close might not be a total pipedream.

 

James Paxton: The forgotten one and for good reason. We all know the bad, but he did have 20+ GS from 2016-2019 and 24+ from '17-'19 with these numbers:

81 GS

38-17 3.54 (119 ERA+)

1.161 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB

 

Garrett Whitlock: A bit of wildcard as a starter, but he has awesome numbers, so far after 2 years of mostly long relief and spot starting:

152 IP in 77 games

12-6 2.73

1.062 WHIP and 5.1 K/BB

It's not a stretch to think this guy could be special in 2023.

 

Tanner Houck: He seems like the odd man out of the rotation, but he may fill in Whitlock's role as a high leverage long man in 2023 with some meaningful spot starts here and there. Like GW, he has some impressive numbers to start his career:

146 IP in 53 games (20 GS)

9-9 3.02

1.123 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB

 

Nick Pivetta: Since coming to the Sox, he's become perhaps one of baseball's best 5th starter, especially in terms of durability and dependability.

66 GS

21-20 4.47 ERA (99 ERA+)

1.343 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB

Is it a stretch to think he may put together a full season like some of his nice runs he's has in the last 2 years?

2021 first 11 GS: (team 9-2) 3.77 ERA (3.27 FIP and .657 OPSA)

2022 first 16 GS: (team 9-7) 3.23 ERA (3.67 FIP and .630 OPSA)

All he has to do is put these two stretches together and BAM!

 

Brayan Bello: He got his feet wet, and started to show signs he's going to stick around awhile. After his first 3 starts he went...

45 IP

3.18 ERA (2.69 FIP and .724 OPSA) All this with a .380 BAbip.

There is plenty of reason to be optimistic about him.

 

Kenley Jansen: He's 35, but he's been one of MLB's most consistent longtime closer since Mo. He is no Mo, but I'm not sure any MLB closer since Mo has gone 12 straight years with 50+ IP (except 2020) and an ERA under .372, every year. He's only had 3 seasons over 3.01. He's not the same guy as the 2011-2017 version (2.08 ERA/0.872 WHIP), but if he can just give us what he's done since then, we'll be getting a huge boost at a slot we have struggled with since the second half of 2018:

292 games/ 161 saves (4.3 seasons, counting 2020)

3.08 ERA/ 1.045 WHIP and 3.7 K/BB

 

Chris Martin: There are not many RP'ers around with less BB/9 than CM. (1.2 Career and 1.0 since 2019 with a 10.1 K/BB- one of MLB's best rates since '19)

173 IP 2019-2022 in 183 games

3.17 ERA (144 ERA+) 2.87 FIP and 1.029 WHIP

He turns 37 in June but seems to be aging well.

 

John Schreiber: Just give us something close to 2022, and we'll have solid set-up man:

65 IP in 64 games

2.22 ERA (190 ERA+) 2.50 FIP and 0.985 WHIP with a 3.9 K/BB

Career: 2.95 FIP, 1.16 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB

 

Richard Bleier: He will turn 36 in April but has aged pretty well, so far. His career numbers are pretty impressive:

3.06 ERA (3.49 FIP) 1.201 WHIP and 3.5 K/BB

His WHIP, FIP and K/BB has been better since 2020:

3.09 ERA (almost identical to career) 3.09 FIP, 1.18 WHIP and 4.4 K/BB

Just give us 45-50 solid IP.

 

Joely Rodriguez, Ryan Brasier, Wyatt Mills, Zack Kelly and Kaleb Ort, plus SP/RP'ers Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy offer 10 promising choices to fill any holes the above players may open up.

 

Sometimes quantity is a good thing. We certainly have plenty of pitchers with past records of quality.

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

$850K. He could be cut.

 

But it doesn’t matter who we agree is the 26th man. Heck, Chang might be further up the ladder than that with an injury or two…

 

Nothing we say matters, in terms of what the Sox do, but we keep spewing our thoughts.

[harmony]

Nick Pivetta has never slotted as the No. 5 starter for the Red Sox and is unlikely to slot as their No. 5 starter this year.

 

In terms of durability and dependability, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen, who will battle for the No. 5 slot in the Seattle rotation, last year posted 18 and nine quality starts in 32 and 22 starts (with ERA of 4.13 and 4.02).

 

Last year Pivetta posted 12 quality starts in 33 starts with an ERA of 4.56.

Edited February 18, 2023 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Nick Pivetta has never slotted as the No. 5 starter for the Red Sox and is unlikely to slot as their No. 5 starter this year.

 

In terms of durability and dependability, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen, who will battle for the No. 5 slot in the Seattle rotation, last year posted 18 and nine quality start in 32 and 22 starts (with ERA of 4.13 and 4.02).

 

Last year Pivetta posted 12 quality starts in 33 starts with an ERA of 4.56.

 

I have seen him as our 5th starter, but due to injuries, he's often been moved up the slots.

[moonslav59]

Here's an optimistic, yet realistic view at our hitters:

 

Rafael Devers: I got my Devers Forevers and at age 26, I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could be on the cusp of a career year. He’s had 2 seasons between .890 and .916, so I do not think it’s a stretch to get up to .950.

 

Masataka Yoshida: He's the wildcard in the line-up with the potential to be a real head-turner. It's hard to project from one league to another, but this guys has a great hitting approach. His last 5 season were fantastic and had an OBP over .400 in his last 4 seasons.

2020: .351/.453/.512/.966

2021: .336/.426/.557/.983

2022: .336/.449/.559/1.007

Is it unrealistic to think he might hit this in MLB?

.310/.400/.450/.850

 

 

Justin Turner: The guy is 38, so expecting an improvement of even no regression might be unrealistic, but the way he finished 2022 at age 37 offers hope for a nice 2023 season. Over his last 59 games and 246 PAs: .349 9 43 (.419/.549/.968). He also has way better stats after 32 than before:

2017-2022: .870 OPS

2009-2016: .787 OPS

I realize he hit .788, last year at age 37, but I do not think it’s unrealistic to think he may hit over .800 with the Sox in 2023- maybe even .850.

 

Adam Duvall: He’s 34, but he’s not too removed from his best career seasons:

.882 in 2019

.833 in 2020

.772 in 2021 (led the NL in rbi with 113 and had 38 HRs and 57 xbhs)

Maybe he can find the magic, again and come close to .800.

 

Alex Verdugo: His career has not followed the age curve progression bell curve. He was better at ages..

23-24: .300 18 59 (.827 OPS) 598 PAs

than

25-26: .284 24 137 (.754) 1248 PAs

I’m thinking .780-.820 is not too much to ask.

 

Enrique Hernandez: Kike has had some up and down seasons and ups and downs within some seasons, but his finish to 2021 was pretty freaking amazing.

1.260 in 50 playoff PAs

.876 last 334 PAs of 2021

His 2 best career years were .836 in 2015 and .806 in 2018. He’s had some memorable postseasons with the Dodgers, too. Is it too much to expect a .780-.820 season in 2023?

 

Christian Arroyo: He’s had a .747 OPS since 2020 (102 OPS+) which is not bad for a 2Bman. He just needs to stay healthy and maybe hit .750.

Adalberto Mondesi: He’s got a ton of potential but needs to stay healthy and put it all together in his “walk year.” He’s got 133 SBs in 358 games. He averages 60 SB per 162 games. He did hit .804 in 2018 and has some power (18 HRs per 650 PAs.) If we can just get a healthy season from him, we might not need great stats. Just get on base over his career .280 mark and play plus D at SS.

 

Tristan Casas: He showed some impressive plate discipline in his first 95 PAs of his MLB career. The .358 OBP is a nice sign. The 5 HRs projects to 30 per 162, so that’s nice, too. I’m thinking .780+ would be something reasonable, yet optimistic.

 

Reese McGuire: he started his career, nicely with Toronto (.882 in his first 138 PAs), hit .582 from 2020-2021 and then bounced back after the trade with the Sox to hit .877 in 108 PAs to end the season in ’22. I’m not expecting .800 in 2022, but maybe one could realistically expect .740 or better, or to lead the team to a better catcher Ops than 2022 (.694) while providing better defense and intangibles with the staff.

 

[moonslav59]

Here's an optimistic, yet realistic view at our hitters:

 

Rafael Devers: I got my Devers Forevers and at age 26, I don’t think it is unrealistic to think he could be on the cusp of a career year. He’s had 2 seasons between .890 and .916, so I do not think it’s a stretch to get up to .950.

 

Masataka Yoshida: He's the wildcard in the line-up with the potential to be a real head-turner. It's hard to project from one league to another, but this guys has a great hitting approach. His last 5 season were fantastic and had an OBP over .400 in his last 4 seasons.

2020: .351/.453/.512/.966

2021: .336/.426/.557/.983

2022: .336/.449/.559/1.007

Is it unrealistic to think he might hit this in MLB?

.310/.400/.450/.850

 

 

Justin Turner: The guy is 38, so expecting an improvement of even no regression might be unrealistic, but the way he finished 2022 at age 37 offers hope for a nice 2023 season. Over his last 59 games and 246 PAs: .349 9 43 (.419/.549/.968). He also has way better stats after 32 than before:

2017-2022: .870 OPS

2009-2016: .787 OPS

I realize he hit .788, last year at age 37, but I do not think it’s unrealistic to think he may hit over .800 with the Sox in 2023- maybe even .850.

 

Adam Duvall: He’s 34, but he’s not too removed from his best career seasons:

.882 in 2019

.833 in 2020

.772 in 2021 (led the NL in rbi with 113 and had 38 HRs and 57 xbhs)

Maybe he can find the magic, again and come close to .800.

 

Alex Verdugo: His career has not followed the age curve progression bell curve. He was better at ages..

23-24: .300 18 59 (.827 OPS) 598 PAs

than

25-26: .284 24 137 (.754) 1248 PAs

I’m thinking .780-.820 is not too much to ask.

 

Enrique Hernandez: Kike has had some up and down seasons and ups and downs within some seasons, but his finish to 2021 was pretty freaking amazing.

1.260 in 50 playoff PAs

.876 last 334 PAs of 2021

His 2 best career years were .836 in 2015 and .806 in 2018. He’s had some memorable postseasons with the Dodgers, too. Is it too much to expect a .780-.820 season in 2023?

 

Christian Arroyo: He’s had a .747 OPS since 2020 (102 OPS+) which is not bad for a 2Bman. He just needs to stay healthy and maybe hit .750.

 

Adalberto Mondesi: He’s got a ton of potential but needs to stay healthy and put it all together in his “walk year.” He’s got 133 SBs in 358 games. He averages 60 SB per 162 games. He did hit .804 in 2018 and has some power (18 HRs per 650 PAs.) If we can just get a healthy season from him, we might not need great stats. Just get on base over his career .280 mark and play plus D at SS.

 

Tristan Casas: He showed some impressive plate discipline in his first 95 PAs of his MLB career. The .358 OBP is a nice sign. The 5 HRs projects to 30 per 162, so that’s nice, too. I’m thinking .780+ would be something reasonable, yet optimistic.

 

Reese McGuire: he started his career, nicely with Toronto (.882 in his first 138 PAs), hit .582 from 2020-2021 and then bounced back after the trade with the Sox to hit .877 in 108 PAs to end the season in ’22. I’m not expecting .800 in 2022, but maybe one could realistically expect .740 or better, or to lead the team to a better catcher Ops than 2022 (.694) while providing better defense and intangibles with the staff.

 

The depth of Wong, Chang, Tapia, Alfaro, Dalbec, EValdez, Duran and maybe Rafaela and others may not be all that great, but the above list is 10 long.