A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[jad]

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nbcsports/chris-sale-delivers-confident-message-about-red-sox-pitching-staff/2975014/

 

Wow. What are the over/unders on how many of those will still be in the rotation at season's end?

[moonslav59]

Our highest ranked pitching prospects since 2003 on soxprospects.com:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm

 

1

Jay Groome (17)

Casey Kelly (10) Traded for AGon

Clay Buchholz (07)

Jonathan Papelbon (05)

Jon Lester (04)

Jorge de la Rosa (03) Traded for Schilling

 

2

Brian Mata (18)

D Hern (18)

Henry Owens (14)

Anthony Ranaudo (12) traded for R Ross

Michael Bowden (07)

Craig Hansen (06) traded w Manny for J Bay

 

3

Brayan Bello (22)

Tanner Houck (18)

Anderson Espinoza (16) Traded for Pomeranz

Allen Webster (13) Traded w R DLR for Miley

Felix Doubront (11)

Daniel Bard (09)

Abe Alavarez (04)

 

4

Whitlock (21)

Noah Song (20)

Drake Britton (11)

 

5

Brandon Walter (22)

Michael Kopech (16) Traded w others for Sale

Brian Johnson (15)

Manny Delcarmen (06)

Phil Dumatrait (03)

 

Note: I may have missed 1 or 2.

 

[moonslav59]

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nbcsports/chris-sale-delivers-confident-message-about-red-sox-pitching-staff/2975014/

 

Wow. What are the over/unders on how many of those will still be in the rotation at season's end?

 

I like hearing him talk. He's getting me pumped up.

 

What's the chances 5 of the 6 SP'ers will still be on the mound at season's end? Maybe 40%.

 

We may just need 4, and I put those odds at 66%.

 

What are the over-unders on GS totals? I'll take a stab:

 

29 Pivetta

26 Whitlock

25 Bello

24 Kluber

16 Sale

12 Paxton

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Of course we "don't know," but we can speculate, and that is largely what this site is for.

 

When there are massive differences in strength of schedule, it's worthy of mentioning. Maybe I say it too often for your liking, but to me it's a major point, so I repeat it like many here do with their points.

 

I'm not sure why you don't tell Deja Doh that "We don't know...," so my guess is you agree more with his take than mine- which is fine.

 

I've tried to point out that my takes on what slots got better or worse are "only on paper," and yes, we could get worse at several positions I called even or improved, especially if an injury occurs.

 

I think it's easy to think, "we lost Bogey, JD and Nate plus some players that did well in '22 for us, like Wacha, Hill and Strahm, but I think, and this is just my opinion, guys like JD, Nate and Bogey are maybe thought of in their 2018 forms- not their 2022 form and even some other off or less than expected seasons.

 

Nate was great for 2 months at the end of 2018. he sucked in 2019 and did well in the short 2020 season and very well in 2021. @022 was good, but he missed more than a third of the season. Which Nate did we lose?

 

JD has been a great signing by us- no doubt. He turns 36, this year and had a bad 2020 short season and saw his OPS+ drop from 173 in 2018 to 139in '19, 128 in '21 and 117 in '23 (.790.) Which JD did we lose?

 

Bogey was a fantastic player for us. As you know, I have questioned his defense at a very important position, but he has always been a clear major plus player, every year. That being said, his OPS+ dropped from 2019, but stayed level at a very nice level: 135 ('18)> 139 ('19)> 128 ('20)> 129 ('21)> [131 ('22.) I'm not one to use RBIs to make points, but it was concerning to see his RBI totals drop, so much. 220 ('18-'19) to 152 ('21-'22.) Which Bogey did we lose?

 

Also, Vaz has been a yo-yo at the plate over his time, here. One good hitting year- then bad, then good... I've questioned his handling of the staff many times, but it certainly remains to be seen, if McGuire and Wong can do better.

 

Two of our biggest weaknesses were addressed: OF offense and the pen. Both could end up being better than average- maybe not. 1B was our worst position, in terms of O and D. It might be a big plus on both sides, but maybe not.

 

The games will show, if Bloom's remake worked, or not. I like our chances- others don't. I can understand their position and they have a lot of facts and evidence on their side, too.

 

Pretty good post, moon. I feel good about the OF offense, Casas and middle relief. I'm not ultra-confident that our closer adapting to new rules, new league, and old age will be lights-out.

 

The key to the season that I don't hear or read is how important it will be for either Turner or Duvall to get hot and strike fear into opposing pitchers. Otherwise, Raffy may never see a good pitch to hit -- in which case he'll become a walking machine or flail at balls and become a whiffing target for boo-birds.

[moonslav59]

Pretty good post, moon. I feel good about the OF offense, Casas and middle relief. I'm not ultra-confident that our closer adapting to new rules, new league, and old age will be lights-out.

 

The key to the season that I don't hear or read is how important it will be for either Turner or Duvall to get hot and strike fear into opposing pitchers. Otherwise, Raffy may never see a good pitch to hit -- in which case he'll become a walking machine or flail at balls and become a whiffing target for boo-birds.

 

The good thing about Raffy is he can hit "bad pitches," too. Turner's gae is concerning, but he was red hot to end the 2022 season, so I think he'll be fine. I'm more worried about Duvall's defense in CF, as well as croner OF D,) but his hitting may not ever reach a good enough level, again.

 

I think Casas may off some middle order "protection."

 

If Yoshida can get on base over 38 or 39% of the time, they can't pitch around the next batter, too much.

 

We could also see some sort of break-out season from Dugo, Arroyo, Kike and even McGuire.

 

I've always been one to admire quality over quantity, but I just see so many what ifs that have serious upside, that I think we just need a few to go right- not all of them. Hell, we may be better if just half of these things go right:

 

Sale starts 20+ games.

Paxton starts 20+.

Whitlock starts 25+

Bello starts 25+

Kluber starts 25+

Pivetta starts 30+

One out of Mata, Crawford, Walter and Wink do well.

Jansen does well

Houck does well

Martin or Schreiber do well

One out of Joely, Brasier, Bleier or Mills/Kelly do well

 

McGuire and Wong equal Vaz and Plawecki

Casas improves on our horrific 2020 numbers at 1B on O & D

Arroyo + Mondesi play 160+ games and don't miss time together.

Kike gets 500+ PAs and hits over .720.

Devers improves on 2022.

Yoshida gets on base over .385.

Duvall does not embarrass us.

Dugo does okay on D and improves a little on O.

Turner goes over JD's .790 OPS from '22

 

That's 20 ifs. Is it wishful thinking 10-12 might be answered in the positive?

 

Is 10-12 enough to improve?

 

Can we get 13-15 positive answers?

 

Could someone off the charts, like Rafaela, Mata, EValdez or Kelly explode on the scene? Could Mayer show up late in 2023?

 

We tend to focus on all that can go wrong, but I see a lot that can go right, too. A whole lot!

[moonslav59]

How about looking at the line-up of 2022 and how 2023 might compare:

 

By batting slot #:

 

2022 OBP/SLG/OPS (Most PAs in 2022)> possible 2023

1 .295/.370/.665 (Kike/Pham/Duran) > Yoshida

2 .347/.496/.843 (Devers & Verdugo)> Kike

3 .375/.461/.836 (Bogaerts & JD M)> Devers

4 .344/.437/.781 (Bogey, Dugo & JD)> Turner

5 .324/.407/.732 (Verdugo & JD M) > Casas

6 .314/.410/.724 (Story, Arroyo, others)> Duvall

7 .317/.434/.751 (Cordero, Dalbec, others)> Dugo

8 .272/.298/.570 (JBJ, Dalbec, Vaz, others)> Arroyo/Mondesi

9 .291/.352/.642 (JBJ, Plaw/Wong, others)> McGuire/Wong

 

How many of these 9 slots do you see as getting worse?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How about looking at the line-up of 2022 and how 2023 might compare:

 

By batting slot #:

 

2022 OBP/SLG/OPS (Most PAs in 2022)> possible 2023

1 .295/.370/.665 (Kike/Pham/Duran) > Yoshida

2 .347/.496/.843 (Devers & Verdugo)> Kike

3 .375/.461/.836 (Bogaerts & JD M)> Devers

4 .344/.437/.781 (Bogey, Dugo & JD)> Turner

5 .324/.407/.732 (Verdugo & JD M) > Casas

6 .314/.410/.724 (Story, Arroyo, others)> Duvall

7 .317/.434/.751 (Cordero, Dalbec, others)> Dugo

8 .272/.298/.570 (JBJ, Dalbec, Vaz, others)> Arroyo/Mondesi

9 .291/.352/.642 (JBJ, Plaw/Wong, others)> McGuire/Wong

 

How many of these 9 slots do you see as getting worse?

 

 

Probably slot #2 -- Kike has never had an .843 OPS in his career. Plus, I don't see him as a classic batter to hit behind the runner (the old job of a #2 hitter). Check out career BAs for opposite-field: Kike .255, Arroyo .280, Turner .313... Devers .413

 

Then again, here are career BAs for pulled pitches: Kike .389, Arroyo .472 (SSS?), Turner .427, Devers .355; the latter is bound to improve with no shift, right?

[Old Red]

Of course we "don't know," but we can speculate, and that is largely what this site is for.

 

When there are massive differences in strength of schedule, it's worthy of mentioning. Maybe I say it too often for your liking, but to me it's a major point, so I repeat it like many here do with their points.

 

I'm not sure why you don't tell Deja Doh that "We don't know...," so my guess is you agree more with his take than mine- which is fine.

 

I've tried to point out that my takes on what slots got better or worse are "only on paper," and yes, we could get worse at several positions I called even or improved, especially if an injury occurs.

 

I think it's easy to think, "we lost Bogey, JD and Nate plus some players that did well in '22 for us, like Wacha, Hill and Strahm, but I think, and this is just my opinion, guys like JD, Nate and Bogey are maybe thought of in their 2018 forms- not their 2022 form and even some other off or less than expected seasons.

 

Nate was great for 2 months at the end of 2018. he sucked in 2019 and did well in the short 2020 season and very well in 2021. @022 was good, but he missed more than a third of the season. Which Nate did we lose?

 

JD has been a great signing by us- no doubt. He turns 36, this year and had a bad 2020 short season and saw his OPS+ drop from 173 in 2018 to 139in '19, 128 in '21 and 117 in '23 (.790.) Which JD did we lose?

 

Bogey was a fantastic player for us. As you know, I have questioned his defense at a very important position, but he has always been a clear major plus player, every year. That being said, his OPS+ dropped from 2019, but stayed level at a very nice level: 135 ('18)> 139 ('19)> 128 ('20)> 129 ('21)> [131 ('22.) I'm not one to use RBIs to make points, but it was concerning to see his RBI totals drop, so much. 220 ('18-'19) to 152 ('21-'22.) Which Bogey did we lose?

 

Also, Vaz has been a yo-yo at the plate over his time, here. One good hitting year- then bad, then good... I've questioned his handling of the staff many times, but it certainly remains to be seen, if McGuire and Wong can do better.

 

Two of our biggest weaknesses were addressed: OF offense and the pen. Both could end up being better than average- maybe not. 1B was our worst position, in terms of O and D. It might be a big plus on both sides, but maybe not.

 

The games will show, if Bloom's remake worked, or not. I like our chances- others don't. I can understand their position and they have a lot of facts and evidence on their side, too.

 

It’s just funny how you’ve mentioned strength of schedule, and playing in a tough Div so many times, but I didn’t hear the same two mentioned after the 2021 season when the Red Sox played in the same Div with a similar schedule that’s all. The Red Sox had the record they did in 2022, because they sucked, and the reasons have been mentioned time, and time again. Injuries, lack of production from key players, and Bloom’s moves, and non moves. If you want to blame the strength of schedule fine, but I don’t. The Red Sox beat the Yankees head to head in 2021, and every year is different. The Red Sox will be playing ALL the good teams in the NL this year, so I don’t know if the schedule will be any easier this year, because of that. We’ll see. I’ve already said I expect the Red Sox to be better this year, but how good remains to be seen. I can’t believe the injury bug will bite them as hard as last year.

[dgalehouse]

The 2022 schedule could have been tougher than it was. In interleague play , the Sox faced the N.L. Central. Certainly easier than the N.L. East or West.

[Old Red]

The 2022 schedule could have been tougher than it was. In interleague play , the Sox faced the N.L. Central. Certainly easier than the N.L. East or West.

 

Exactly, and some of those 12 less games the Red Sox will be playing the Yankees, and Toronto this year will be made up of good NL teams.

[moonslav59]

Probably slot #2 -- Kike has never had an .843 OPS in his career. Plus, I don't see him as a classic batter to hit behind the runner (the old job of a #2 hitter). Check out career BAs for opposite-field: Kike .255, Arroyo .280, Turner .313... Devers .413

 

Then again, here are career BAs for pulled pitches: Kike .389, Arroyo .472 (SSS?), Turner .427, Devers .355; the latter is bound to improve with no shift, right?

 

I was thinking maybe ONLY #2 looks like a (near) certain drop off. The rest may show increases and might even be odds on to show a plus.

 

If they slot Devers second, then the 3 slot will be a near certain minus.

[moonslav59]

It’s just funny how you’ve mentioned strength of schedule, and playing in a tough Div so many times, but I didn’t hear the same two mentioned after the 2021 season when the Red Sox played in the same Div with a similar schedule that’s all. The Red Sox had the record they did in 2022, because they sucked, and the reasons have been mentioned time, and time again. Injuries, lack of production from key players, and Bloom’s moves, and non moves. If you want to blame the strength of schedule fine, but I don’t. The Red Sox beat the Yankees head to head in 2021, and every year is different. The Red Sox will be playing ALL the good teams in the NL this year, so I don’t know if the schedule will be any easier this year, because of that. We’ll see. I’ve already said I expect the Red Sox to be better this year, but how good remains to be seen. I can’t believe the injury bug will bite them as hard as last year.

 

Not mentioning it in 2021 does not mean it was unimportant.

 

The other difference was the records in the division- not outside (see below).

 

You are right, though, what happened last year does not mean it will in '23. The stark difference between '21 and '22 shines a light on that fact.

 

2021:

41-35 v AL East

51-35 v others

 

2022:

26-50 v AL East

52-34 v others

 

The non ALE records were almost identical between '22 and '23. If we play more games vs "others," it should help. Note the emphasis on should. If we play less vs the ALE, that should help, too.

 

It might not, but I think it is worth pointing out as a factor that may help us win more games, this year. 12 games is 15% of the schedule. Winning more due to the schedule does not mean we are any better of a team, and there is no guarantee had we not been in the ALE, last year, we'd have ended up with a .600 win %, but I do think it is an indicator that we were not quite as bad as our record indicated. I know this matters little to you, but I don't think we were as bad as many think we were in 2022. (Note: we likely weren't as good as our record showed in 2021, either.)

[moonslav59]

The 2022 schedule could have been tougher than it was. In interleague play , the Sox faced the N.L. Central. Certainly easier than the N.L. East or West.

 

We had the toughest schedule in MLB. It almost rises to the level of college football.

[moonslav59]

Exactly, and some of those 12 less games the Red Sox will be playing the Yankees, and Toronto this year will be made up of good NL teams.

 

It's 6 games vs

 

.611 NYY #5

.568 TOR #8

.531 TBR #13

.512 BAL #14

 

24 games vs top half teams replaced by an average of teams at .500.

 

It's fine to think it might not matter, but let's not gloss over facts. We will be playing more games vs more teams with lower winning percentages, this year. We will be playing less games vs teams that won more in 2022. It might not matter or matter much, but it looks helpful, to me.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

We had the toughest schedule in MLB. It almost rises to the level of college football.

 

The second sentence seems like a wee bit of an overstatement.

[moonslav59]

The second sentence seems like a wee bit of an overstatement.

 

It might have been by a tiny bit, but we did. We didn't get to play us, all year!

[Old Red]

The second sentence seems like a wee bit of an overstatement.

 

I hope the ranking committee takes it into account when the rankings come out.

[mvp 78]

What if Sale is the ace of the rotation?

[moonslav59]

What if Sale is the ace of the rotation?

 

That could be a great thing or a bad thing.

[jad]

College FB schedules are the worst. My epitome of that was when USC was beating Nebraska by 70, the announcers (obviously from mid-west) said, "Well, if Nebraska can just keep it within 20, then they can get back to business with the Toledo's and Alcorn States, and they should be fine."

[moonslav59]

The second sentence seems like a wee bit of an overstatement.

 

Avg Rank of Opponent in 2022:

 

13.2 Red Sox

13.4 Oakland

13.7 Washington

13.8 Baltimore

14.3 Miami

14.4 LAA

14.6 TOR

[harmony]

College FB schedules are the worst. My epitome of that was when USC was beating Nebraska by 70, the announcers (obviously from mid-west) said, "Well, if Nebraska can just keep it within 20, then they can get back to business with the Toledo's and Alcorn States, and they should be fine."

A more accurate example is needed:

 

https://usctrojans.com/sports/football/opponent-history/university-of-nebraska/124

[harmony]

FanGraphs has posted its playoff odds:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs has posted its playoff odds:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

31% chance to make the WC seems a bit low but understandable.

 

They project us going 81-81 and finishing 5 games ahead of BAL- firmly in 4th place.

 

6 games behind TOR & TBR.

Edited February 17, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs has posted its playoff odds:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

Did you notice, in terms of wins projected, the ALE vs ALW:

 

1. NYY>HOU (+0.3)

2. TOR> SEA (+3.6)

3. TBR>LAA (+4.7)

4. BOS

5. BAL>OAK (+7.5)

 

Net: ALE +15.6

 

[notin]

It might have been by a tiny bit, but we did. We didn't get to play us, all year!

 

And yet we still managed to beat ourselves…

[moonslav59]

And yet we still managed to beat ourselves…

 

Ain't that the truth!

 

Something we can all agree on.

[Bellhorn04]

Avg Rank of Opponent in 2022:

 

13.2 Red Sox

13.4 Oakland

13.7 Washington

13.8 Baltimore

14.3 Miami

14.4 LAA

14.6 TOR

 

In case anyone's wondering, the "average average" rank would be 15.5 ((1+30)/2).

[moonslav59]

In case anyone's wondering, the "average average" rank would be 15.5 ((1+30)/2).

 

Our strength of schedule, this year is tough, too- one of the worst, but it should be a little easier than 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

And yet we still managed to beat ourselves…

 

I thought we were done with those jokes...

 

(I know that's not what you meant. Just bored.)