A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Spotrac has $26.1M.

 

I've heard on both SoxProspects and Carrabis podcast it's closer to 9M. Since they have "inside" sources, I'll stick with that number.

[mvp 78]

I agree the Red Sox don’t look like a playoff contender, and in the process of looking that way after a losing last place in the Div finish the Red Sox raised ticket prices to watch, and to me also not being a playoff contender would be a waste of one of Raffy’s Prime years.

 

I disagree. They paid him a huge contract. The only year they truly wasted Raffy's prime was 2020 when they only had 3 rotation guys coming out of camp. When you are actively going for a top pick, you are wasting the year. They still have a shot at a playoff spot. Is it highly likely? No. Maybe like 25%? They aren't throwing away the season. They'll be an ok team. Should they be better? Yes.

 

He's only 26. If the plan is to be a playoff team from 24-28, then I don't see the problem. Ortiz was 27 in his first season here. They still have a long way to go.

[mvp 78]

Since I put your guesses for last year, I'll add mine for this year as well:

 

Fangraphs’ OPS Projections (ZIPS) & my over/under:

.887 Devers- significantly over 880

.861 Yoshida- about right 820

.805 Turner- about right 780

.794 Verdugo- about right 810

.793 Duvall- about right 750

.792 Casas- about right (maybe under) 800

.791 Story- slightly over N/A, out for the year

.765 Refsnyder- under 730

.742 Arroyo- under 750

.739 Wong- under 720

ERA

3.44 Whitlock- about right 4.00

3.60 Martin- over 3.25

3.62 Rodriguez- over 3.50

3.67 Schreiber- over 3.50

3.70 Jansen- under 3.75

3.85 Bleier- same 4.10

3.95 Sale- under 4.10

3.99 Bello- same 3.75

4.05 Paxton- over 4.50

4.14 Houck- under 4.25

4.50 Brasier- over 4.30

4.62 Kluber- significantly under 4.50

 

[Old Red]

I disagree. They paid him a huge contract. The only year they truly wasted Raffy's prime was 2020 when they only had 3 rotation guys coming out of camp. When you are actively going for a top pick, you are wasting the year. They still have a shot at a playoff spot. Is it highly likely? No. Maybe like 25%? They aren't throwing away the season. They'll be an ok team. Should they be better? Yes.

 

He's only 26. If the plan is to be a playoff team from 24-28, then I don't see the problem. Ortiz was 27 in his first season here. They still have a long way to go.

 

Any year they don’t make the postseason to me is a wasted year, and a failure like last year was.

[Maxbialystock]

Thanks for the discussion and updates everyone.

[mvp 78]

I'd really love to update my response to moon's projections where I add my own and fix the font to make it more clear what I wrote, but TalkSox doesn't want to let me edit that post. Sorry all.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I disagree. They paid him a huge contract. The only year they truly wasted Raffy's prime was 2020 when they only had 3 rotation guys coming out of camp. When you are actively going for a top pick, you are wasting the year. They still have a shot at a playoff spot. Is it highly likely? No. Maybe like 25%? They aren't throwing away the season. They'll be an ok team. Should they be better? Yes.

 

He's only 26. If the plan is to be a playoff team from 24-28, then I don't see the problem. Ortiz was 27 in his first season here. They still have a long way to go.

 

Ya, I'll never agree with the "wasting" of any years that include having a great player. I'm a fan, and get to watch Devers play for my team.

I'm also not the CBO who tried to justify signing Raffy by bragging about all the young talent that would soon be surrounding him. Talk about putting pressure on yourself...

 

Predictions aren't worth wasting money making bets -- but this year really looks more volatile than any in recent memory.

 

The ceiling might have an open skylight to the heavens. The floor sure looks like there's a hole in it that leads to the bowels of hades.

[moonslav59]

Honestly though, all the back and forth about the balanced schedule and what other teams added means very little to the Sox. The issue the Sox have is that the Offense struggled last season (Verdugo, Bogey and JD were all horrible at producing runs with guys on base https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1624818787684941824) but the names they have added seem to be lackluster. The Starting Rotation was injured on and off again all last season, but they are relying on Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock. The bullpen should be a strength, but those guys can be volatile year to year. As many have said, this team has a good ceiling and a bad floor. It's up to them to reach the ceiling. If the Sox don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the balanced schedule or because of the FA's other teams added.

 

I'm not sure Yoshiad is "lackluster," but he could end up being so.

 

Turner has been at .866 from 2014 (133 OPS+). He also hit .941 in his last 65 games in 2022 (271 PAs.) This guy can hit.

 

Duvall is rather pedestrian, but he did lead the league in RBIs in 2021. He also had an .802 OPS (107 OPS+) from 2019-2021. He his 1.101 in his last 42 PAs of 2022.

 

Mondesi and McGguire are highly questionable.

 

Casas could be a wild card.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure Yoshiad is "lackluster," but he could end up being so.

 

Turner has been at .866 from 2014 (133 OPS+). He also hit .941 in his last 65 games in 2022 (271 PAs.) This guy can hit.

 

Duvall is rather pedestrian, but he did lead the league in RBIs in 2021. He also had an .802 OPS (107 OPS+) from 2019-2021. He his 1.101 in his last 42 PAs of 2022.

 

Mondesi and McGguire are highly questionable.

 

Casas could be a wild card.

 

We have a lot of wild cards in our deck this year. Hopefully no jokers.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure Yoshiad is "lackluster," but he could end up being so.

 

Turner has been at .866 from 2014 (133 OPS+). He also hit .941 in his last 65 games in 2022 (271 PAs.) This guy can hit.

 

Duvall is rather pedestrian, but he did lead the league in RBIs in 2021. He also had an .802 OPS (107 OPS+) from 2019-2021. He his 1.101 in his last 42 PAs of 2022.

 

Mondesi and McGguire are highly questionable.

 

Casas could be a wild card.

 

The overall package of players acquired is lackluster. There is no ace for the rotation. I'm not sure there's a guy that we can all point to that is certain to be a #2.

 

The bullpen includes a few good additions.

 

The defense: up the middle is a cluster including C where Chaim said he was going to upgrade, but didn't.

 

The offense: the second best player left and the cleanup hitter left, but were replaced with a guy whose whole career has been overseas (but is interesting) and 38 year old Justin Turner who may just replicate what JD did in 2022, which isn't an upgrade. Turner's 2014-17 numbers have little relevancy due to his current age. It's going to be more similar to his '21 and '22 seasons. Duvall was added as an additional OF option, but has been over 1 fWAR once in the past 5 years. Turner and Duvall have played their entire careers for NL teams. The transition to the AL may be difficult for them. It wasn't easy for Story.

[mvp 78]

We have a lot of wild cards in our deck this year. Hopefully no jokers.

 

The jokers are all logged in here.

[Bellhorn04]

The overall package of players acquired is lackluster. There is no ace for the rotation. I'm not sure there's a guy that we can all point to that is certain to be a #2.

 

The bullpen includes a few good additions.

 

The defense: up the middle is a cluster including C where Chaim said he was going to upgrade, but didn't.

 

The offense: the second best player left and the cleanup hitter left, but were replaced with a guy whose whole career has been overseas (but is interesting) and 38 year old Justin Turner who may just replicate what JD did in 2022, which isn't an upgrade. Turner's 2014-17 numbers have little relevancy due to his current age. It's going to be more similar to his '21 and '22 seasons. Duvall was added as an additional OF option, but has been over 1 fWAR once in the past 5 years. Turner and Duvall have played their entire careers for NL teams. The transition to the AL may be difficult for them. It wasn't easy for Story.

 

Is changing leagues really a big deal any more? Especially with the increase in interleague games.

[moonslav59]

The jokers are all logged in here.

 

Including MVJ 78.

[mvp 78]

Is changing leagues really a big deal any more? Especially with the increase in interleague games.

 

Until Turner and Duvall can prove otherwise, I'm going to lean into yes.

[mvp 78]

Including MVJ 78.

 

I was including ALL of us.

[Bellhorn04]

Until Turner and Duvall can prove otherwise, I'm going to lean into yes.

 

Kike did fine in 2021.

 

You may be right, but I'd like to see a little statistical underpinning...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was including ALL of us.

 

Shirley, you jest.

[mvp 78]

Kike did fine in 2021.

 

You may be right, but I'd like to see a little statistical underpinning...

 

Actually, he came up with the Astros!

[mvp 78]

Don't take it from me though, take it from this ancient FanGraphs article.

 

https://plus.fangraphs.com/is-there-an-adjustment-time-for-players-changing-leagues/

 

Players perform worse when moving from the NL to the AL and better if going from the AL to the NL.

[moonslav59]

Good summation. I don’t think the new balance schedule will help the team at all, because they will be picking up more good teams that will offset not playing the Yankees, and Toronto as much. The FA the Sox picked up plus Yoshida are a big wish, and hope that they will do better than JD, and Bogey last year, and this year. Anything more than Sale even if healthy being more than a 500 pitcher will be a plus.

 

IMO, the schedule will be significantly easier, anyway you look at it.

 

W-L records from last year.

 

Projected W-L records for this year.

 

We drop 6 games from NYY, TOR & BAL and 6 from BAL, who is better than most team's 3rd and 4th place teams.

 

We add 24 games vs a mix of good and bad teams.

[moonslav59]

Don't take it from me though, take it from this ancient FanGraphs article.

 

https://plus.fangraphs.com/is-there-an-adjustment-time-for-players-changing-leagues/

 

Players perform worse when moving from the NL to the AL and better if going from the AL to the NL.

 

Makes sense, since the AL is better.

[Old Red]

IMO, the schedule will be significantly easier, anyway you look at it.

 

W-L records from last year.

 

Projected W-L records for this year.

 

We drop 6 games from NYY, TOR & BAL and 6 from BAL, who is better than most team's 3rd and 4th place teams.

 

We add 24 games vs a mix of good and bad teams.

 

Myself as a fan I don’t want to see an easier schedule. To me it’s pretty simple if you want to win more games Get Better. I would rather see the Red Sox, and Yankees play 19 times than 13 times. This is a lot different Red Sox team this year compared to last years team, and it doesn’t mean the Red Sox would have sucked against the Div again this year.

[moonslav59]

Myself as a fan I don’t want to see an easier schedule. To me it’s pretty simple if you want to win more games Get Better. I would rather see the Red Sox, and Yankees play 19 times than 13 times. This is a lot different Red Sox team this year compared to last years team, and it doesn’t mean the Red Sox would have sucked against the Div again this year.

 

I like a more balanced schedule.

 

Yes, it's all speculation, but I'd rather us be playing closer to our fair share of good teams than more than our fair share, and closer to our fair share of bad teams than less than our fair share.

 

I'm not sure why you prefer we play a harder schedule than any team in MLB.

[notin]

Myself as a fan I don’t want to see an easier schedule. To me it’s pretty simple if you want to win more games Get Better. I would rather see the Red Sox, and Yankees play 19 times than 13 times. This is a lot different Red Sox team this year compared to last years team, and it doesn’t mean the Red Sox would have sucked against the Div again this year.

 

Playing more games against the Yankees is better.

 

The “easier schedule” thing is a conditional bonus. The AL East is not going to be the toughest division every season.

 

But with more wild cards up for grabs, heavy division schedules make less sense. It just adds to the potential rewards teams can reap from playing in a weak division, and penalizes other teams for playing in a stronger one…

Edited February 13, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Playing more games against the Yankees is better.

 

The “easier schedule” thing is a conditional bonus. The AL East is not going to be the toughest division every season…

 

No, but they rate to be in 2023.

 

It is more fun watching us beat the Yanks than the Pirates, but I prefer watching as many wins as possible, and just about anything that helps that happen, I'm going to support.

[notin]

No, but they rate to be in 2023.

 

It is more fun watching us beat the Yanks than the Pirates, but I prefer watching as many wins as possible, and just about anything that helps that happen, I'm going to support.

 

The schedule should be in effect long after 2023. A long term change shouldn’t be evaluated using short term criteria…

[Old Red]

I like a more balanced schedule.

 

Yes, it's all speculation, but I'd rather us be playing closer to our fair share of good teams than more than our fair share, and closer to our fair share of bad teams than less than our fair share.

 

I'm not sure why you prefer we play a harder schedule than any team in MLB.

 

Have you always felt this way, or is it, because the Red Sox sucked big time against the Div last year, and I heard the gee if we played in a different Div we wouldn’t have been in last place. Well we don’t play in a different Div, and we did finish in last place. How did the Red Sox do against the Div in 2021 when I didn’t hear any complaints. Didn’t the Red Sox beat the Yankees head to head, and got the home playoff game, because of it? You don’t know why I would rather play the Yankees 19 games instead of 13 games? Like I said get better if you want to win more games. That’s how I see it.

[Old Red]

No, but they rate to be in 2023.

 

It is more fun watching us beat the Yanks than the Pirates, but I prefer watching as many wins as possible, and just about anything that helps that happen, I'm going to support.

 

Maybe a participation trophy next?

[mvp 78]

My preference is for increased divisional games and a balanced schedule, by getting rid of interleague play altogether.

[Old Red]

My preference is for increased divisional games and a balanced schedule, by getting rid of interleague play altogether.

 

I second the motion.