A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Who can argue with such objective statements supported by such rigorous analysis?

 

Is Kyle Gibson (35) somehow better than Kluber? He's the guy the O's signed to replace Jordan Lyles. Is Cole Irvin better than Bello and Whitlock? They signed big stud Adam Frazier and who else? James MCCann & Michael Givens? lmao!

 

This is the team that traded away their best pen arm (Jorge Lopez) and club house leader Trey Mancini, last deadline. Mancini had the 3rd best OPS+ on the team.

 

Now, the O's are stacked with young talent who should be improving, but they got worse.

 

How did the Rays get better?

 

The Jays added some and subtracted some.

 

The Yanks lost their closer!!! LOL

[Hugh2]

There might be few teams that can compete with the Red Sox when it comes to range of outcomes for the 2023 season. The Sox have a lot of talent in this team, but much of it is a combination of unproven, age and injury risk.

 

Just think how good Sale/Paxton/Kluber will be with a clean bill of health for example? Not going to go up/down the whole 40 man but that’s a reoccurring theme on this team.

 

I won’t be surprised if the win 90+ games next year, conversely I also won’t be surprised if they only win 75 and everything goes horribly wrong.

[moonslav59]

There are various ways to look at and compare the 2023 Sox rotation and the 2022 rotation, and even the 2021 one.

 

I like to look at GS'd and what is returning vs being replaced. With so many moving parts there are a number of ways to mix and match the comps.

 

Matching pitchers to come to 33 GS'd method:

 

2022> 2023

33 Pivetta 4.56> 33 Pivetta (equal)

26 RHill 4.27+5 Seabold 11.29 + 3 Davis 5.47 > 33 Kluber (???)

23 Wacha 3.32 + 9 Whitlock> 32 Whitlock 3.45 (???)

20 Nate 3.87 + 11 Bello 4.71> 31 Bello (???)

14 Wink 5.89+ 4 Houck 3.15 + 2 Sale 3.18? 31 Sale+ Paxton + others (???)

 

Or like this:

69 GS (Nate, Wacha, Hill= 2 FT SP'er) > 29 Kluber and Bello/Whitlock 20GS to 50GS

34 GS (Wink, Craw, Seabold, Davis= horrible!)? 34 Sale, Paxton, Mata, Walter, Murphy (Wink/Craw)

 

Any way you shake it, I don't see a worse rotation, unless Sale and Paxton give us close to nothing and Mata, Walter, Murphy and second year men, Wink & Crawford, all suck. Pivetta should be about the same. Bello, Whitlock and Kluber need to produce, but is that really asking much? Are they bigger question marks than pitchers on other teams?

 

It's easy to look at the ERAs of Wacha, Nate and Hill and say, that will b e hard to replace, but they only started 69 games, last year. Wink, Craw, Seabold and Davis started 34. Our SP'er ERA of 4.49 was just 0.10 better than our horrific pen (4.59.)

WHIP:

1.352 SP

1.356 RP

OPSA

.763 SP

.722 RP

 

I'm not sure showing how bad our rotation was last year helps make the 2023 one look good, but I do think it can and will be better in 2023. I realize there are some major what ifs, but there was last year, too, and this year we have added Mata, Walter and Murphy to Wink and Crawford and removed Seabold and Davis from the mix. In a sense, we also added Sale & Paxton to the mix, too.

 

It sucks having so many questions, but we only need 3 to 4 out of 10 to come through.

 

Pivetta is our solid #5.

 

We need 3-4 from this list to do well:

 

Sale

Kluber

Whitlock

Bello

Paxton

Mata

Crawford

Walter

Winckowski

Murphy

(We could even add Houck to make this list 11.)

 

Those odds do not look bad, to me.

[moonslav59]

Let's compare 2021's rotation to 2023's:

 

GS 2021 ERA> 2023

32 Nate 3.75> Kluber

31 ERod 4.74> Whitlock

30 Pivetta 4.53 >Pivetta

22 Richards 4.87+13 Houck 3.52> Bello

22 Perez 4.74+9 Sale 3.16+ 3 Peacock/Seabold/Crawford> Sale + Paxton + others

 

Note how 4 of the 5 rotation slots from 2021 had ERAs over 4.50.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Could they really be saving all that wiggle room for deadline trades?

 

I don't see anything to spend it on, now, except Andrus, and he'd not even eat up half of what we have.

 

There's still the possibility of a trade, which might involve another team that's cutting salary.

[Bellhorn04]

There might be few teams that can compete with the Red Sox when it comes to range of outcomes for the 2023 season. The Sox have a lot of talent in this team, but much of it is a combination of unproven, age and injury risk.

 

Just think how good Sale/Paxton/Kluber will be with a clean bill of health for example? Not going to go up/down the whole 40 man but that’s a reoccurring theme on this team.

 

Yep, and Whitlock and Bello have quite a range of outcomes too.

[harmony]

Is Kyle Gibson (35) somehow better than Kluber? He's the guy the O's signed to replace Jordan Lyles. Is Cole Irvin better than Bello and Whitlock? They signed big stud Adam Frazier and who else? James MCCann & Michael Givens? lmao!

 

This is the team that traded away their best pen arm (Jorge Lopez) and club house leader Trey Mancini, last deadline. Mancini had the 3rd best OPS+ on the team.

 

Now, the O's are stacked with young talent who should be improving, but they got worse.

 

How did the Rays get better?

 

The Jays added some and subtracted some.

 

The Yanks lost their closer!!! LOL

MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince lists the Blue Jays and Yankees among 10 offseason winners:

 

Teams that made the best offseason moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Let’s embark upon an annual tradition by puckering up our lips and applying the kiss of death. That’s right. It’s time to name the Winter Winners! You know how this so often goes. A team wins the winter and loses the season. That’s of course not always the case, but

 

The Red Sox did not make the cut coming off their last-place finish.

 

The Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and presumably Michael Wacha (not to mention the projected late start of Trevor Story).

 

Will the additions of Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Richard Bleier (and the shaky returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton) be enough to compensate for the losses?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

[harmony]

Let's compare 2021's rotation to 2023's:

 

GS 2021 ERA> 2023

32 Nate 3.75> Kluber

31 ERod 4.74> Whitlock

30 Pivetta 4.53 >Pivetta

22 Richards 4.87+13 Houck 3.52> Bello

22 Perez 4.74+9 Sale 3.16+ 3 Peacock/Seabold/Crawford> Sale + Paxton + others

 

Note how 4 of the 5 rotation slots from 2021 had ERAs over 4.50.

Garrett Whitlock has never tossed more than 82.1 innings in a season. Expecting 31 starts from the 26-year-old righthander is highly optimistic.

 

Brayan Bello on the other hand threw 153.1 innings last year.

[dgalehouse]

After a thorough analysis, I feel confident in saying this : The Sox may actually be an improved team this season, but on the other hand, they may not be. Much depends on the health and productivity of the players. No matter what happens, I will be able to say, " that is what I predicted. "

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince lists the Blue Jays and Yankees among 10 offseason winners:

 

Teams that made the best offseason moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Let’s embark upon an annual tradition by puckering up our lips and applying the kiss of death. That’s right. It’s time to name the Winter Winners! You know how this so often goes. A team wins the winter and loses the season. That’s of course not always the case, but

 

The Red Sox did not make the cut coming off their last-place finish.

 

The Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and presumably Michael Wacha (not to mention the projected late start of Trevor Story).

 

Will the additions of Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Richard Bleier (and the shaky returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton) be enough to compensate for the losses?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

Compensate? Why not.

 

Improve? I dunno... maybe Bogey, JD and Nate will have better years in a change of scenery, just like Yoshida, Turner and Duvall will.

 

The shaky returns of Sale and Paxton may be the closest to sure bets. Sale isn't build like Verlander, coming back from Tommy John. He'll have a repaired elbow, but the same Sale delivery that bends and rends joints and tissue, only on an older body. He might have another good season one of these years, but success may not be sustainable... unless he turns into Frank Tanana (look him up for a lesson in adaptability).

[moonslav59]

There's still the possibility of a trade, which might involve another team that's cutting salary.

 

True. Not many trades are done around this time, but maybe one has been on the burner for a while, but one team is waiting something else out.

 

Some big contracts that are near zero on BTV at positions we need:

 

Salary (BTV) Player (Some are very likely not trade bait)

SS

$120M (-14.4) Javier Baez

$150M (-7.2) Marcus Semien

$10M (-5.9) Nick Ahmed

$16M (-0.7) Brandon Crawford

2B

$46M (-11.7) Yoan Moncada

$10.5 (-9.1) David Bote

$73M (-1.8) Ketel Marte (OF)

$20M (-1.8) David Fletcher (SS)

$10M (+0.1) Kolten Wong

$7.3M (+2.0) Whit Merrifield (OF)

$5.2M (+3.9) Jorge Mateo (OF)

P

$46M (-4.9) Marcus Stroman

$14M (-4.7) Carlos Carrasco

 

I'm sure there are more.

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince lists the Blue Jays and Yankees among 10 offseason winners:

 

Teams that made the best offseason moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Let’s embark upon an annual tradition by puckering up our lips and applying the kiss of death. That’s right. It’s time to name the Winter Winners! You know how this so often goes. A team wins the winter and loses the season. That’s of course not always the case, but

 

The Red Sox did not make the cut coming off their last-place finish.

 

The Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and presumably Michael Wacha (not to mention the projected late start of Trevor Story).

 

Will the additions of Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Richard Bleier (and the shaky returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton) be enough to compensate for the losses?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

Story missed a bunch of 2022, too.

Kike should be healthy.

Add Casas.

Add more from Whitlock and Bello.

 

Don't forget addition by subtraction on JBJ (.578) Diekman, Plawecki (5.74), Pham (.672), Cordero (.697). Hosmer (.631), Davis (5.47), Sawamura, Seabold (11.29), Robles (5.84) and more, plus projected less playing time to...

 

.652 Dalbec

.645 Duran

5.47 Crawford

5.89 Wink

5.78 Brasier

 

More time from...

3.45 Whitlock

3.15 Houck

2.22 Schreiber

4.71 Bello

.766 Casas

.629 Kike (should be over .725)

.736 Arroyo

.877 McGuire

.

,

[moonslav59]

Garrett Whitlock has never tossed more than 82.1 innings in a season. Expecting 31 starts from the 26-year-old righthander is highly optimistic.

 

Brayan Bello on the other hand threw 153.1 innings last year.

 

Whitlock was in the pen. Several SP'ers start 30-33 games and have 150-165 IP.

 

If they don't start as many as I put together, here, plugging in Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter & Murphy is at least equal to last year's guys and the scrubs from 2021.)

 

I'm not saying that many starts is not being optimistic, but unless they get hurt, I'm expecting 26-32 GS'd with maybe some quick hooks to keep their IP down. We now have a pen that can allow for that.

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince lists the Blue Jays and Yankees among 10 offseason winners:

 

Teams that made the best offseason moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Let’s embark upon an annual tradition by puckering up our lips and applying the kiss of death. That’s right. It’s time to name the Winter Winners! You know how this so often goes. A team wins the winter and loses the season. That’s of course not always the case, but

 

The Red Sox did not make the cut coming off their last-place finish.

 

The Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and presumably Michael Wacha (not to mention the projected late start of Trevor Story).

 

Will the additions of Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Richard Bleier (and the shaky returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton) be enough to compensate for the losses?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

Using your source:

 

Projected OPS for 2023

.868 Yoshida> .767 Bogey (4.5 fWAR)

.763 Turner> .750 JD Martinez

.683 Duvall> (way better than JBJ/Duran/Pham)

.663 Mondesi (1.3 fWAR- better D than Bogey)

.652 McGuire (1.5 fWAR) .674 Vaz (1.8 proj fWAR)

.770 Casas>> (way better than Dalbec/Cordero/Hosmer)

.703 Kike >(way better than 2022 Kike)

0.8 fWAR Wong >(-0.4 Plawecki in 2022) ass this to McGuire and our catchers will be better by projections.

 

 

[harmony]

Whitlock was in the pen. Several SP'ers start 30-33 games and have 150-165 IP.

 

If they don't start as many as I put together, here, plugging in Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter & Murphy is at least equal to last year's guys and the scrubs from 2021.)

 

I'm not saying that many starts is not being optimistic, but unless they get hurt, I'm expecting 26-32 GS'd with maybe some quick hooks to keep their IP down. We now have a pen that can allow for that.

 

Overlooked were the 120.2 innings Garrett Whitlock pitched as a starter five years ago across three lower minor league levels. Other than 2018 Whitlock has never pitched more than 82.2 innings in a professional season.

[moonslav59]

Overlooked were the 120.2 innings Garrett Whitlock pitched as a starter five years ago across three lower minor league levels. Other than 2018 Whitlock has never pitched more than 82.2 innings in a professional season.

 

You act like this means he never can.

 

Even if he just goes 80-100, the ones taking his place are equal (the same guys as 2022 like Crawford or Winckowski) or possibly better (Mata, Walter or Murphy.)

 

Okay, maybe I'm optimistic about more than 80 or 100 IP from Whitlock, but he was used in the pen for 2 years, and that's a reason it didn't happen.

 

You do know Logan Gilbert never pitched more than 135 IP and that was his only time over 112, until he went 186, last year. It does happen, you know.

[harmony]

You act like this means he never can.

 

Even if he just goes 80-100, the ones taking his place are equal (the same guys as 2022 like Crawford or Winckowski) or possibly better (Mata, Walter or Murphy.)

 

Okay, maybe I'm optimistic about more than 80 or 100 IP from Whitlock, but he was used in the pen for 2 years, and that's a reason it didn't happen.

 

You do know Logan Gilbert never pitched more than 135 IP and that was his only time over 112, until he went 186, last year. It does happen, you know.

Another example to support your position would be Seattle righthander George Kirby, who as a rookie last year tossed 130 MLB innings* after pitching only 117.1 minor league innings since being drafted in 2019.

* plus 26.2 minor league innings and eight high-pressure shutout innings in the postseason

Edited February 13, 2023 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Cots has our estimated Luxury Tax budget at $211M. That leaves us $22M under the first line.

 

I'm not sure Cots is reliable anymore. I've heard a few times that we are closer to 9M under.

[mvp 78]

For the time and effort you put into this you should be commended, but the team just looks like another $211 million cellar dweller

 

Theoretically, they could be 81-81 and in the cellar, so sure...

[mvp 78]

You undersell it.

 

This forum is a free-for-all mishmash of Dunning-Kruger, Recency Effect and Backfire Effect, coated lightly with the Bias Blind Spot.

 

I’d admit I’m just as guilty as the rest of you, but that would violate the Bias Blind Spot. So clearly, this applies to everyone else…

 

Everyone here is equally great at knowing jack s***. Nobody on here is an expert nor should we be expected to be.

[mvp 78]

I find it interesting that the Sox are still sitting on some cash (below the tax line). I believe it means Chaim isn't quite done yet.

 

1. Saving room for a late season addition in case they are still in the chase.

2. MAYBE leaving room for a guy like Iggy to be added if Mondesi gets injured in his first week back?

[mvp 78]

MLB.com columnist Anthony Castrovince lists the Blue Jays and Yankees among 10 offseason winners:

 

Teams that made the best offseason moves

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Let’s embark upon an annual tradition by puckering up our lips and applying the kiss of death. That’s right. It’s time to name the Winter Winners! You know how this so often goes. A team wins the winter and loses the season. That’s of course not always the case, but

 

The Red Sox did not make the cut coming off their last-place finish.

 

The Sox lost Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and presumably Michael Wacha (not to mention the projected late start of Trevor Story).

 

Will the additions of Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Corey Kluber, Adam Duvall, Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Richard Bleier (and the shaky returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton) be enough to compensate for the losses?

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2023-start-of-spring-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

 

The teams that win the offseason aren't typically the teams that are hoisting the trophy at the end of the year from what I remember.

[Hugh2]

Yep, and Whitlock and Bello have quite a range of outcomes too.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if those two pitched like a #2 starter all year or not. Bello could be mediocre his first year, Whitlock might not take to a full season as a starter. But the team doesn't lack talent, not to be confused with a talented roster that instills confidence in the team.

[mvp 78]

After a thorough analysis, I feel confident in saying this : The Sox may actually be an improved team this season, but on the other hand, they may not be. Much depends on the health and productivity of the players. No matter what happens, I will be able to say, " that is what I predicted. "

 

Honestly though, all the back and forth about the balanced schedule and what other teams added means very little to the Sox. The issue the Sox have is that the Offense struggled last season (Verdugo, Bogey and JD were all horrible at producing runs with guys on base https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1624818787684941824) but the names they have added seem to be lackluster. The Starting Rotation was injured on and off again all last season, but they are relying on Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock. The bullpen should be a strength, but those guys can be volatile year to year. As many have said, this team has a good ceiling and a bad floor. It's up to them to reach the ceiling. If the Sox don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the balanced schedule or because of the FA's other teams added.

[mvp 78]

Don't forget addition by subtraction on JBJ (.578) Diekman, Plawecki (5.74), Pham (.672), Cordero (.697). Hosmer (.631), Davis (5.47), Sawamura, Seabold (11.29), Robles (5.84) and more, plus projected less playing time to...

 

.652 Dalbec

.645 Duran

5.47 Crawford

5.89 Wink

5.78 Brasier

,

 

Sox are going to rely on guys like Goodrum, Allen, Tapia, et al that will also perform at a AAAA level at various points in the year. You can't really play the addition by subtraction game.

 

Brasier? He's probably going to have as many innings this year as last year unless he's injured.

 

Duran? He may be on the Opening Day roster.

 

Crawford and Wink have an inside track on bulk innings in the pen and a shot at the rotation once one of the oft injured starters goes down.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't be surprised if those two pitched like a #2 starter all year or not. Bello could be mediocre his first year, Whitlock might not take to a full season as a starter. But the team doesn't lack talent, not to be confused with a talented roster that instills confidence in the team.

 

The Sox need to give Whitlock a full season to see if he can stick as a starter. I don't think they are a real playoff contender, so it's a good year to "experiment." If it doesn't work, push him back to the pen.

[Old Red]

Honestly though, all the back and forth about the balanced schedule and what other teams added means very little to the Sox. The issue the Sox have is that the Offense struggled last season (Verdugo, Bogey and JD were all horrible at producing runs with guys on base https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1624818787684941824) but the names they have added seem to be lackluster. The Starting Rotation was injured on and off again all last season, but they are relying on Sale/Paxton/Kluber/Whitlock. The bullpen should be a strength, but those guys can be volatile year to year. As many have said, this team has a good ceiling and a bad floor. It's up to them to reach the ceiling. If the Sox don't make the playoffs, it won't be because of the balanced schedule or because of the FA's other teams added.

 

Good summation. I don’t think the new balance schedule will help the team at all, because they will be picking up more good teams that will offset not playing the Yankees, and Toronto as much. The FA the Sox picked up plus Yoshida are a big wish, and hope that they will do better than JD, and Bogey last year, and this year. Anything more than Sale even if healthy being more than a 500 pitcher will be a plus.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Cots is reliable anymore. I've heard a few times that we are closer to 9M under.

 

Spotrac has $26.1M.

[Old Red]

The Sox need to give Whitlock a full season to see if he can stick as a starter. I don't think they are a real playoff contender, so it's a good year to "experiment." If it doesn't work, push him back to the pen.

 

I agree the Red Sox don’t look like a playoff contender, and in the process of looking that way after a losing last place in the Div finish the Red Sox raised ticket prices to watch, and to me also not being a playoff contender would be a waste of one of Raffy’s Prime years.

[mvp 78]

As for last year's realistic predictions:

 

I'm projecting the AL East as such:

 

94 TOR close 92

92 BOS nope

90 NYY nope 99

86 TBR on the money 86

60 BAL nope 83

 

Here's an optimistic view, but within the range of "realism:"

 

My 2022 Projections (based on good health) LOL on the good health qualifier

PA Player OPS

650 Devers .900 879

650 Bogey .880 833

650 Story .850 737

625 JD M .840 789

650 Verdugo .800 733

650 Kike .800 629

550 Dalbec .790 652

450 Vaz .760 759

350 Arroyo .750 736

350 Duran .740 646

175 Plawecki .700 574

550 Shaw, Casas, Wong, Arauz & others .650 Wong 586, Casas 766 the only batter who overperformed per moon projections

 

IP Pitcher ERA

180 Eovaldi 3.90 109, 3.87

170 Pivetta 4.30 180, 4.56

150 Sale 3.20 0, N/A

130 Wacha 127

120 Houck 3.40 60, 3.15

110 Hill 124

100 Whitlock 3.40 78, 3.45

60 Barnes 40

50 Taylor 0

50 Brasier 62

50 Diekman 38

50 Strahm 45

50 Sawamura 51

130+ DHern, Davis, Valdez and others 5.00