A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

The roster seems about set for the start of the season. We could probably add another pitcher, SS or OF depth, but I doubt we do. Here is my guess on the opening day roster, assuming 100% health, except Story (60 Day IL projected.)

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Hernandez 2B

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. S Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Arroyo IF, L Duran OF (Maybe EValdez)

SP

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

RP

1. Jansen

2. Martin

3. Houck

4. Schreiber

5. Rodriguez

6. Bleier

 

The rest of the 40 (Story on 60 Day IL makes 41.)

SP/RP: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, Ort

1B/3B: Dalbec

2B/1B: Valdez

IF: Hamilton

OF/IF: Rafaela, Abreu

Add to 40? Goodrum, Tapia, Alfaro, Allen, Crook, Sogard

 

Fangraphs’ OPS Projections (ZIPS) & my over/under:

.887 Devers- significantly over

.861 Yoshida- about right

.805 Turner- about right

.794 Verdugo- about right

.793 Duvall- about right

.792 Casas- about right (maybe under)

.791 Story- slightly over

.765 Refsnyder- under

.742 Arroyo- under

.739 Wong- under

ERA

3.44 Whitlock- about right

3.60 Martin- over

3.62 Rodriguez- over

3.67 Schreiber- over

3.70 Jansen- under

3.85 Bleier- same

3.95 Sale- under

3.99 Bello- same

4.05 Paxton- over

4.14 Houck- under

4.50 Brasier- over

4.62 Kluber- significantly under

 

Cots has our estimated Luxury Tax budget at $211M. That leaves us $22M under the first line.

 

Here is the link to Part 1:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20473-A-Realistic-View-at-2023-Part-I

[harmony]

The roster seems about set for the start of the season. We could probably add another pitcher, SS or OF depth, but I doubt we do. Here is my guess on the opening day roster, assuming 100% health, except Story (60 Day IL projected.)

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Hernandez 2B

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. S Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Arroyo IF, L Duran OF (Maybe EValdez)

SP

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

RP

1. Jansen

2. Martin

3. Houck

4. Schreiber

5. Rodriguez

6. Bleier

 

The rest of the 40 (Story on 60 Day IL makes 41.)

SP/RP: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, Ort

1B/3B: Dalbec

2B/1B: Valdez

IF: Hamilton

OF/IF: Rafaela, Abreu

Add to 40? Goodrum, Tapia, Alfaro, Allen, Crook, Sogard

 

Fangraphs’ OPS Projections (ZIPS) & my over/under:

.887 Devers- significantly over

.861 Yoshida- about right

.805 Turner- about right

.794 Verdugo- about right

.793 Duvall- about right

.792 Casas- about right (maybe under)

.791 Story- slightly over

.765 Refsnyder- under

.742 Arroyo- under

.739 Wong- under

ERA

3.44 Whitlock- about right

3.60 Martin- over

3.62 Rodriguez- over

3.67 Schreiber- over

3.70 Jansen- under

3.85 Bleier- same

3.95 Sale- under

3.99 Bello- same

4.05 Paxton- over

4.14 Houck- under

4.50 Brasier- over

4.62 Kluber- significantly under

 

Cots has our estimated Luxury Tax budget at $211M. That leaves us $22M under the first line.

 

Here is the link to Part 1:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20473-A-Realistic-View-at-2023-Part-I

Rafael Devers has a career OPS+ of .854, including an OPS+ of .885 over the past two seasons.

 

Is this a realistic thread?

[moonslav59]

Rafael Devers has a career OPS+ of .854, including an OPS+ of .885 over the past two seasons.

 

Is this a realistic thread?

 

Ummm, yes, very. Ever heard of bell curve into prime years?

 

Here is a beginner's guide:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-aging-curves/

 

Devers is 26 years old and in the meat of peak prime.

 

He played hurt for a month, last year. I'm thinking he'll be closer to .950 than .887.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The roster seems about set for the start of the season. We could probably add another pitcher, SS or OF depth, but I doubt we do. Here is my guess on the opening day roster, assuming 100% health, except Story (60 Day IL projected.)

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Hernandez 2B

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. S Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Arroyo IF, L Duran OF (Maybe EValdez)

SP

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

RP

1. Jansen

2. Martin

3. Houck

4. Schreiber

5. Rodriguez

6. Bleier

 

The rest of the 40 (Story on 60 Day IL makes 41.)

SP/RP: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, Ort

1B/3B: Dalbec

2B/1B: Valdez

IF: Hamilton

OF/IF: Rafaela, Abreu

Add to 40? Goodrum, Tapia, Alfaro, Allen, Crook, Sogard

 

Fangraphs’ OPS Projections (ZIPS) & my over/under:

.887 Devers- significantly over

.861 Yoshida- about right

.805 Turner- about right

.794 Verdugo- about right

.793 Duvall- about right

.792 Casas- about right (maybe under)

.791 Story- slightly over

.765 Refsnyder- under

.742 Arroyo- under

.739 Wong- under

ERA

3.44 Whitlock- about right

3.60 Martin- over

3.62 Rodriguez- over

3.67 Schreiber- over

3.70 Jansen- under

3.85 Bleier- same

3.95 Sale- under

3.99 Bello- same

4.05 Paxton- over

4.14 Houck- under

4.50 Brasier- over

4.62 Kluber- significantly under

 

Cots has our estimated Luxury Tax budget at $211M. That leaves us $22M under the first line.

 

Here is the link to Part 1:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20473-A-Realistic-View-at-2023-Part-I

 

With Fangraphs on most. Overs: Casas -- where's Alfaro? Unders: Turner, but still a solid contributor; Story -- too much time away from live, in-game pitching (he's not Joe DiMaggio). Unders on the mound: Martin, unless the infield betrays him... but few walks means few inherited runners for others to let score; Bello -- has dominated at every level but one so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Ummm, yes, very. Ever heard of bell curve into prime years?

 

Here is a beginner's guide:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-aging-curves/

 

Devers is 26 years old and in the meat of peak prime.

 

He played hurt for a month, last year. I'm thinking he'll be closer to .950 than .887.

 

He was at .992 on August 2 last year, so your over play is well founded.

[moonslav59]

He was at .992 on August 2 last year, so your over play is well founded.

 

He also finished with a 1.003 in his last 9 games (35 PAs) and .953 the last 15 games and 64 PAs.

 

Yes, many players would have much better yearly OPS if you took away their worst 4-6 week stretch, but Devers was playing hurt.

 

I don't expect him to have 38 game stretch of .586 like 2022. BTW, he still managed 22 RBIs in those 38 games.

[Bobe2]

For the time and effort you put into this you should be commended, but the team just looks like another $211 million cellar dweller

[Bobe2]

The roster seems about set for the start of the season. We could probably add another pitcher, SS or OF depth, but I doubt we do. Here is my guess on the opening day roster, assuming 100% health, except Story (60 Day IL projected.)

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Hernandez 2B

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Verdugo RF

8. S Mondesi SS

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Arroyo IF, L Duran OF (Maybe EValdez)

SP

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton

RP

1. Jansen

2. Martin

3. Houck

4. Schreiber

5. Rodriguez

6. Bleier

 

The rest of the 40 (Story on 60 Day IL makes 41.)

SP/RP: Mata, Crawford, Walter, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Mills, Kelly, Ort

1B/3B: Dalbec

2B/1B: Valdez

IF: Hamilton

OF/IF: Rafaela, Abreu

Add to 40? Goodrum, Tapia, Alfaro, Allen, Crook, Sogard

 

Fangraphs’ OPS Projections (ZIPS) & my over/under:

.887 Devers- significantly over

.861 Yoshida- about right

.805 Turner- about right

.794 Verdugo- about right

.793 Duvall- about right

.792 Casas- about right (maybe under)

.791 Story- slightly over

.765 Refsnyder- under

.742 Arroyo- under

.739 Wong- under

ERA

3.44 Whitlock- about right

3.60 Martin- over

3.62 Rodriguez- over

3.67 Schreiber- over

3.70 Jansen- under

3.85 Bleier- same

3.95 Sale- under

3.99 Bello- same

4.05 Paxton- over

4.14 Houck- under

4.50 Brasier- over

4.62 Kluber- significantly under

 

Cots has our estimated Luxury Tax budget at $211M. That leaves us $22M under the first line.

 

Here is the link to Part 1:

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20473-A-Realistic-View-at-2023-Part-I

My comment was for moons post

[moonslav59]

For the time and effort you put into this you should be commended, but the team just looks like another $211 million cellar dweller

 

It hurts that $27M of that $211M is being paid to a pitcher who never pitches, but still think a $185M budget should not be a cellar-dweller, either. I share in your concerns and fears that this team might fail, badly, but I see some serious upside in a lot of the players on the 26 and 40 man roster.

 

As I've said before, I prefer quality to quantity, in a general sense, but having so many promising players has its benefits, too.

 

It sucks we play in the hardest division, but that is what it is, and now, we play them way less with the new schedule. We still need to do better than one or two to not finish last or to make the playoffs, but I'm not seeing any of the other 4 getting any stronger over 2022.

 

One thing that could very well happen: Turner, Yoshida, Duvall, McGuire/Wong, Mondesi and Casas could outplay the 2023 Bogey, JD, Vaz, JBJ/PHam and Hosmer and we could still finish last. Kluber, Whitlock and Bello could knock the socks off the 2023 Nate, Wacha and Hill and our rotation might still get worse. Our 2023 pen could blow away our 2022 pen, and we may still suck. All three could happen and we could still finish last! That's the pessimist view, but certainly possible.

 

Right now, I'm pretty optimistic, and I'm not forcing myself to be so. Honestly, I'm trying to be as objective as I can be. I truly believe all of the following things have a better chance at happening than not- not all will, but most should, and we don't need more than maybe half to happen to get over .500 and out of the cellar:

 

McGuire/Wong to do better than the 2020-2022 Vax/Plawecki

Casas > Dalbec/Hosmer

'23 Devers? 2020-2022 Devers

Yoshida> Pham/Cordero

Duvall > JBJ

Turner> 2020-2022 JD

2023 RF> 2022 RF

(Only 2B and SS look like significant losses.)

 

Sale/Paxton pitch more than 2020-2022 combined

Kluber > 2019-2022 Nate

Whitlock> Wacha/Wink

Bello> 2022 Bello/Crawford/Seabold

(Pivetta= 2021-2022 Pivetta)

 

2023 pen> any Sox pen since the first half of 2018.

 

That's the rosy view, and all certainly possible, as well, right?

[moonslav59]

My comment was for moons post

 

The O's have many very good young, ML players- more than us, but have you checked out their rotation and pen? We should also have a better offense than they will.

 

RS Projections

4.7 TOR

4.6 BOS

4.4 NYY

4.3 BAL

4.3 TBR

 

RA

3.8 NYY

3.9 TBR

4.3 TOR

4.4 BOS

4.5 BAL

 

Run Differential

0.59 NYY

0.43 TOR

0.40 TBR

0.10 BOS

-0.20 BAL

 

I'm not celebrating being projected at 4th place, and some services have us projected last, but I like our chances at finishing 3rd or 2nd. I may be in a small minority, but it's almost spring!

 

.

[notin]

Rafael Devers has a career OPS+ of .854, including an OPS+ of .885 over the past two seasons.

 

Is this a realistic thread?

 

Are career numbers really relevant here?

 

Career numbers treat Devers’ 2017 (age 20) and 2018 (age 21) as equal to his 2022 season. Is he really the same player as he was in 2017?

[notin]

The O's have many very good young, ML players- more than us, but have you checked out their rotation and pen? We should also have a better offense than they will.

 

RS Projections

4.7 TOR

4.6 BOS

4.4 NYY

4.3 BAL

4.3 TBR

 

RA

3.8 NYY

3.9 TBR

4.3 TOR

4.4 BOS

4.5 BAL

 

Run Differential

0.59 NYY

0.43 TOR

0.40 TBR

0.10 BOS

-0.20 BAL

 

I'm not celebrating being projected at 4th place, and some services have us projected last, but I like our chances at finishing 3rd or 2nd. I may be in a small minority, but it's almost spring!

 

.

 

If Sale and Paxton are both healthy, the Sox could and should be in the postseason hunt. However, as conditional statements go, I think that might be on par with “if I just flap my arms hard enough”…

[harmony]

Ummm, yes, very. Ever heard of bell curve into prime years?

 

Here is a beginner's guide:

 

https://library.fangraphs.com/the-beginners-guide-to-aging-curves/

 

Devers is 26 years old and in the meat of peak prime.

 

He played hurt for a month, last year. I'm thinking he'll be closer to .950 than .887.

FanGraphs, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel are likely familiar with the “bell curve into prime years” in projecting Rafael Devers with 2023 OPS of .871, .854, .888 and .851, respectively.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism … or an optimistic thread.

Edited February 11, 2023 by harmony

[Bellhorn04]

FanGraphs, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel are likely familiar with the “bell curve into prime years” in projecting Rafael Devers with 2023 OPS+ of .871, .854, .888 and .851, respectively.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism … or an optimistic thread.

 

What's with the + signs?

[moonslav59]

Are career numbers really relevant here?

 

Career numbers treat Devers’ 2017 (age 20) and 2018 (age 21) as equal to his 2022 season. Is he really the same player as he was in 2017?

 

harmony is usually very consistent with his criteria (almost always fWAR and fangraphs' projections,) but he often cherry-picks the time frame to suit his case. (I do, too.)

 

Devers is just now reaching peak prime. 2023 and 2024 should be his best seasons, although not everyone follows the bell curve.

 

He was at .992 on Aug 2nd and hot over .950 the last 15 games of the season. In between, he played hurt.

 

I'm expecting .950 or more, but .925 could be a good projection. .887 is low, and I think most would agree.

[harmony]

What's with the + signs?

Corrected. Thank you.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel are likely familiar with the “bell curve into prime years” in projecting Rafael Devers with 2023 OPS+ of .871, .854, .888 and .851, respectively.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism … or an optimistic thread.

 

You know better than most, these services always guess low. Honestly, you really think Devers will end up under .887 or even .900?

 

BTW, I don't think it's being "optimistic" for you and I to think Julio Rodrigues will finish over .823 or Teoscar Hernandez to finish above .764.

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs, Steamer, ZiPS and Marcel are likely familiar with the “bell curve into prime years” in projecting Rafael Devers with 2023 OPS of .871, .854, .888 and .851, respectively.

 

Nothing wrong with optimism … or an optimistic thread.

 

The fact is any personal projection within .50-75 points of these services falls within "realism" and does not have to be "optimistic" or "pessimistic."

 

Are you projecting .870 for Devers? (about the avg of those you listed?)

 

Throw out the shortened 2020 season:

 

.916 at age 22 (2019)

.890 at age 24 (2021)

.879 at age 25 (2022, including injury stretch)

 

At age 26, they are projecting .870, so you have to believe them?

[harmony]

harmony is usually very consistent with his criteria (almost always fWAR and fangraphs' projections,) but he often cherry-picks the time frame to suit his case. (I do, too.)

 

Devers is just now reaching peak prime. 2023 and 2024 should be his best seasons, although not everyone follows the bell curve.

 

He was at .992 on Aug 2nd and hot over .950 the last 15 games of the season. In between, he played hurt.

 

I'm expecting .950 or more, but .925 could be a good projection. .887 is low, and I think most would agree.

Who is cherry-picking in this thread?

 

A first post cited Rafael Devers’ career OPS and his significantly higher OPS over the past two seasons.

 

Not all agree. The ZiPS projection of an .887 OPS

is higher than the OPS projections from FanGraphs, Steamer and Marcel.

[moonslav59]

Who is cherry-picking in this thread?

 

A first post cited Rafael Devers’ career OPS and his significantly higher OPS over the past two seasons.

 

Not all agree. The ZiPS projection of an .887 OPS

is higher than the OPS projections from FanGraphs, Steamer and Marcel.

 

You almost always use last year's fWAR or projected fWAR, not career. You also hardly ever use OPS.

 

It's no big deal. I appreciate you input on this site.

 

I disagree that it being optimistic or as I inferred from your "optimistic thread" comment was out of the realm of realism to think Devers will be significantly higher than .887.

[harmony]

The fact is any personal projection within .50-75 points of these services falls within "realism" and does not have to be "optimistic" or "pessimistic."

 

Are you projecting .870 for Devers? (about the avg of those you listed?)

 

Throw out the shortened 2020 season:

 

.916 at age 22 (2019)

.890 at age 24 (2021)

.879 at age 25 (2022, including injury stretch)

 

At age 26, they are projecting .870, so you have to believe them?

Would a projection be realistic if it fell 50-75 points lower than those from the established publicly available services?

 

Reliance on those services helps avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

[Bellhorn04]

moon was just betting the over on Devers, that's all. We know some actual results will be over and some will be under. That's very realistic.

[moonslav59]

Would a projection be realistic if it fell 50-75 points lower than those from the established publicly available services?

 

Reliance on those services helps avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

 

Yes, I did say "within 50-75," so that means below, too. In reality, since I think these guys guess low more often than not, maybe a 50-75 range above and 25-50 below might be more to my liking for anybody, not just Devers.

 

Also, one boost Devers will be seeing is no shift.

[moonslav59]

moon was just betting the over on Devers, that's all. We know some actual results will be over and some will be under. That's very realistic.

 

In all fairness, he's the only guy I said "significantly over," but I don't think over .925 or even .950 should be called unrealistic, which I inferred harmony implied.

[Hugh2]

Well even Zips projections have Devers with a higher OPS than his last two years. So everyone is betting on a career year from a 26 year old on the right side of his prime.

 

The over is .900 low .900 OPS. I don’t think that’s unrealistic at all.

[Nick]

I am looking forward to 2023.

 

Chris Sale has another 3 years with us.

 

Hopefully, Casas and Bello will join Devers as a part of our 'core' group in search of next championship.

 

Good luck to Betts and Xander and that is ALL I'm going to say about THAT.

 

We're tied for 1st place (I'm sure many of you will argue that we're tied for last place)

[Bellhorn04]

I am looking forward to 2023.

 

Chris Sale has another 3 years with us.

 

Sale's contract actually ends after 2024, but contains a vesting option for 2025, he has to finish in the top 10 for CYA voting in 2024 and be healthy.

[dgalehouse]

Would a projection be realistic if it fell 50-75 points lower than those from the established publicly available services?

 

Reliance on those services helps avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

 

Harm, This entire forum is an example of the Dunning- Kruger effect. Without it, there wouldn't be much activity at all.

[notin]

Harm, This entire forum is an example of the Dunning- Kruger effect. Without it, there wouldn't be much activity at all.

 

You undersell it.

 

This forum is a free-for-all mishmash of Dunning-Kruger, Recency Effect and Backfire Effect, coated lightly with the Bias Blind Spot.

 

I’d admit I’m just as guilty as the rest of you, but that would violate the Bias Blind Spot. So clearly, this applies to everyone else…

[harmony]

Harm, This entire forum is an example of the Dunning- Kruger effect. Without it, there wouldn't be much activity at all.

Agreed.

 

On another baseball forum an analogy was drawn between forum contributors and those who still play beer league softball or baseball.

 

Those still playing in the beer leagues harbor no delusions about competing at the MLB level. Fans who question front office decisions face a similar disparity of knowledge and expertise.

 

Metaphorically we forum fans are trying to hit big league pitching when we question front office decisions.

 

Beer league softball is a worthwhile pastime even if the players can't compete at the MLB level. Likewise, fan discussion of baseball decisions is a worthwhile pastime even if the contributors lack the information and expertise of their front office counterparts.

 

Of course front office personnel were not born with their current knowledge and expertise. At some point they probably had no more knowledge and expertise than the average contributor to this forum. But those persons kept asking questions and seeking information. In a high competitive field those persons eventually landed a job in an MLB front office.

 

No shame in what we do on this forum.

Edited February 11, 2023 by harmony