2023 Prospects

[moonslav59]

Grads in '22: Bello, Crawford, Winckowski, Wong, Ort & Duran

 

Experience in '22:

2. Casas

23. Kelly

 

2023:

4. Rafaela

6. Mata

5. Yorke

9. Walter

13. Murphy

17. E Valdez

26. Hamilton

27. Fernandez

(33. C Koss, 38. RHern, 41. T Broadway, 48. O Mosqueda, 57. C Shugart)

 

2024:

1. Mayer (late '23???)

14. Lugo

20. Kavadas

22. Drohan

24. Abreu

(35. Binelas, 39. Jimenez, 40. S Scott, 46. T Denlinger)

 

2025:

11. Paulina

12. Gonzalez

15. Jordan

16. Bonaci

18. Hickey

29. Guerrero

30. McDonough

(37. J Salazar, C Meidroth, A Bastardo, J Encarnacion)

 

2026:

3. Bleis

7. Romero

10. Perales

19. E R-C

21. Coffey

25. Brannon

28. Paez

(31. M Alcantara, 32. F Encarnacion)

[moonslav59]

#51-55 on Soxprospects.com:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/2023-countdown-to-spring-training-55-51.html

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

#51-55 on Soxprospects.com:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/2023-countdown-to-spring-training-55-51.html

 

 

Wow, three more potential relievers. It's nice to grow a farm full of arms, but it would be helpful if a few of them were grafted to starters.

[Hugh2]

Wow, three more potential relievers. It's nice to grow a farm full of arms, but it would be helpful if a few of them were grafted to starters.

 

I mean, you're not wrong on the Sox system not having a ton of high-caliber starter types BUT, these are also prospects ranked below 50. I don't think anyone's system has ever projected someone that low to be a starter.

[moonslav59]

I mean, you're not wrong on the Sox system not having a ton of high-caliber starter types BUT, these are also prospects ranked below 50. I don't think anyone's system has ever projected someone that low to be a starter.

 

Also, most over 50, or even over 40 (and 30 in some systems) are never expected to sniff the bigs.

[Hugh2]

Also, most over 50, or even over 40 (and 30 in some systems) are never expected to sniff the bigs.

 

There's also so much fluidity between the rankings too the further you go down. There's not nearly as much of a difference between 20 and 60 as there is 19 and 1.

 

Guys in that range are either career Milbers or maybe emergency depth types. Or they're are very young and raw and just breaking into the list.

[moonslav59]

There's also so much fluidity between the rankings too the further you go down. There's not nearly as much of a difference between 20 and 60 as there is 19 and 1.

 

Guys in that range are either career Milbers or maybe emergency depth types. Or they're are very young and raw and just breaking into the list.

 

True, we do know some top 10 players did start off between 20 and 60.

[mvp 78]

True, we do know some top 10 players did start off between 20 and 60.

 

Most FCL guys start off low in the rankings. Rafaela, Bonaci, Paulino weren't all top 20 guys. Bleis was kind of an exception as he got a big bonus up front and there were lots of people high on his potential from day one.

 

The highest ranked INTL signing from 2023 started off at 49. None of the others are ranked at all. You have to give those guys a little bit to develop.

 

I believe even Kavadas' first ranking was 40 or higher.

[moonslav59]

 

I believe even Kavadas' first ranking was 40 or higher.

 

I know he is 24 and projects as a DH type, but why is he still only ranked 20th?

[mvp 78]

I know he is 24 and projects as a DH type, but why is he still only ranked 20th?

 

He hasn’t hit well at AA. Slow bat. No position. That limits his outlook.

[moonslav59]

He hasn’t hit well at AA. Slow bat. No position. That limits his outlook.

 

He only had 81 ABs at AA and still managed a .370 OBP, but I get your point.

[mvp 78]

He only had 81 ABs at AA and still managed a .370 OBP, but I get your point.

 

His bat needs to carry him at every level. There are some questions about it. We’ll see if he struggles with the cold weather early on or if he pushes to WOO.

[moonslav59]

His bat needs to carry him at every level. There are some questions about it. We’ll see if he struggles with the cold weather early on or if he pushes to WOO.

 

What kind of odds do you give him for making a meaningful ML contribution at 1B or DH?

[mvp 78]

What kind of odds do you give him for making a meaningful ML contribution at 1B or DH?

 

For BOS? Less than 25%. Maybe a platoon bat? IDK.

[moonslav59]

For BOS? Less than 25%. Maybe a platoon bat? IDK.

 

We may need a DH in 2 years, but 25% seems about right.

 

Maybe he's trade bait.

[moonslav59]

The list is getting more interesting and promising as we head into the top 50:

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/02/2023-sox-prospects-countdown-to-spring.html

[moonslav59]

#49 Yoeilin Cespedes

Highly-regarded international signing. Quick wrists, compact swing, above-average raw power. Good approach for his age. Will start at shortstop but may need to move to second or third base eventually. Average arm, average speed. Solid makeup.

 

48. Oddanier Mosqueda

Projects as organizational bullpen depth. Ceiling of an up-and-down reliever. Has improved year after year and shown bat-missing ability. Secondary pitches and command and control need refinement. Will show intriguing spin rates on fastball and slider. Comes from a very tough angle for left-handed hitters and has excelled against them so far in the high minors.

 

47. Noah Dean

Will transition to the starting rotation in pro ball, but could always fall back to the bullpen, where his fastball will definitely play. Intriguing raw stuff with untapped potential. Needs to work on secondaries and command and control, but lefties who get up to the high-90s and miss bats are not that easy to find, so presents a really intriguing package for a pitching prospect.

 

46. Theo Denlinger (Traded F German)

Potential solid organizational depth reliever with the chance to develop into at least an emergency up-and-down arm. Ceiling of a middle reliever. Fastball is his best pitch and shows promising characteristics, but needs to find consistent command and a secondary pitch.

[mvp 78]

@jaketodonnell

BA is releasing updated org Top 30s. Red Sox list is out now. Notable:

 

Perales up to 17 on their list.

Wong is still a prospect by their criteria at 20th.

They're high on Cespedes, he's already 24th.

2022 draftees Brannon, Meidroth and Rogers are 25th, 27th and 29th respectively

 

BA pre-season top 30:

 

1. Mayer SP1

2. Casas SP2

3. Rafaela SP4

4. Yoshida SPUNRANKED

5. Bleis SP3

6. Romero SP7

7. Yorke SP5

8. Mata SP6

9. Anthony SP9

10. Walter SP8

11. Paulino SP11

12. Gonzalez SP12

13. Murphy SP13

14. Jordan SP15

15. Hickey SP18

16. Bonaci SP16

17. Perales SP10

18. Lugo SP14

19. Valdez SP17

20. Wong SPGRADUATED

21. Coffey SP21

22. Abreu SP24

23. Kavadas SP20

24. Cespedes SP49

25. Brannon SP25

26. Rodriguez-Cruz SP19

27. Meidroth SP36

28. Kelly SP23

29. Rogers SP53

30. Ravelo SP45

 

The Cespedes ranking is high, but he was the big bonus paid out this year. Really don't know much about him TBH.

 

I remember Ravelo being a pretty slick defensive player, but his bat hasn't really played at all in DSL, FCL or low A.

 

Rogers is just a left handed relief profile and far away. Not sure I'd put him in the top 30 at this point.

 

On the other hand, Meidroth hit very well after being drafted. I'm interested in seeing if he can continue it this year. He'll start at Salem, but should finish the year in Greenville. Good OBP guy, but low power potential for now. Probably 2B only profile. He's not the most athletic guy you can dream on, but that hit tool is something that the Sox are really looking at and it could fly through the minors if he keeps the k's down and bb's up.

[moonslav59]

#41 to #45 on soxprospects.com:

 

45 Luis Ravelo Defense-first profile right now, with future upside tied up in how he physically matures and how his bat develops. At the moment, he is raw with a wide gap between what he is and what he could be.

 

44 Allan Castro Intriguing young bat who has shown a solid swing and ability to drive the ball. Has platoon concerns, but has some upside at the plate. Needs to get stronger and has a long way to go, but scouts identified him as one of the more interesting hitters on a loaded 2022 FCL team.

 

43 Juan Daniel Encarnacion Potential minor league depth arm. Ceiling of an organizational arm. Shows the early makings of a three-pitch mix, but does not have stand-out stuff and lacks a major league-quality pitch. Velocity has improved already. Has some deception in his delivery and already shows some feel. Has a way to go developmentally and future potential depends on him maturing physically and his stuff improving.

 

42 Angel Bastardo Intriguing arm who likely profiles best in the bullpen unless third pitch and command/control profile take a step forward. Is still more of a thrower than a pitcher, but flashes a potential three-pitch mix. Needs to refine command and control.

 

41 Taylor Broadway Intriguing arm with a power three-pitch mix that could profile in a major league bullpen role. Has shown premium bat-missing ability, but also been hit very hard. Developing command and consistency are key for him to reach his potential.

[a700hitter]

So Casas will be painting finger nails during the season. That should be interesting.

 

[Bellhorn04]

So Casas will be painting finger nails during the season. That should be interesting.

 

 

Well, at least it's a team-oriented fashion statement, I guess...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, at least it's a team-oriented fashion statement, I guess...

 

I'm just dreading City Connect weekend.

[mvp 78]

A unique ranking of the Sox Prospects. Has a good breakdown for 30+ guys above DSL. If you want to read more about Philip Sikes than you have before, give it a shot.

 

https://samfederman.medium.com/2023-boston-red-sox-top-30-prospects-245637cce08d

 

Also of note, I do not rank players who have only appeared in the Dominican Summer League, as there’s simply too little information. Freili Encarnacion would likely find his way into the top 15 if he were being ranked. Ages are listed as of July 1st, 2023.

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs Top 100:

Mayer 18

Bleis 20

Casas 29

Rafaela 49

Yorke 102

[Bellhorn04]

FanGraphs Top 100:

Mayer 18

Bleis 20

Casas 29

Rafaela 49

Yorke 102

 

4 in the top 50 seems like a good score.

[mvp 78]

4 in the top 50 seems like a good score.

 

Yorke could go up with a bounce back year too.

[moonslav59]

4 in the top 50 seems like a good score.

Yup. 1.7 would be the average per 30 teams.

[moonslav59]

Some interesting points about fangraphs' top 100 list:

 

1. While Mayer is ranked 18th and Bleis 20th, Arizona has 4 prospects in the top 16. Baltimore has 3 in the top 17.

 

2. Jordan Lawlar is ranked 12th. He was drafted 6th (2 slots below Mayer.)

 

3. The number one pick in 2021, Henry Davis is ranked 38th.

 

4. #3 pick, Jackson Jobe is ranked #110, and #2 pick Jack Leiter is ranked #111.

 

5. Besides us having 2 in the top 20, we have 3 in the top 29 (Mayer, Bleis & Casas), 4 in the top 49 (Rafaela), and 5 in the top 102 (Yorke).

 

6. BAL has 6 in the top 66.

 

7. The Yanks have 2 in the top 40 and 3 in the top 50. (No more in top 112)

 

8. TOR & TBR have none in the top 23. TOr has 1 in top 50/ TBR 3 in top 50. TOR 2 in top 112/ TBR 4.

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I find it interesting that Bleis is top 20 in fangraphs and on not top 100 on bleacher report or MLB.

[mvp 78]

I find it interesting that Bleis is top 20 in fangraphs and on not top 100 on bleacher report or MLB.

 

He's 93 on MLB. Bleacher Report isn't generally a great resource IMO.