Devers next deal

[Old Red]

So here we are once again, and I can’t see Raffy signing now, because I can’t see the Red Sox knocking Raffy over with a offer he can’t refuse, and even though he has 1 more year to go before FA it’s almost like he is already a FA, and Raffy will just wait till the time comes when he can field offers from other teams, and when that happens I can’t see the Red Sox outbidding anyone. Edited January 4, 2023 by Old Red

[Old Red]

And Devers was so annoyed by the comparison that he laughed away Speier when he asked about it. So why could we assume that he'd take any offer based on what Olson made? I think he wanted close to the Machado 10/300.

 

We would not assume he would take any offer based on Olson, but that is what Bloom offered, and as far as I know there was no counter offer.

[Bellhorn04]

We would not assume he would take any offer based on Olson, but that is what Bloom offered, and as far as I know there was no counter offer.

 

One more in our recent history of shunned offers...

[Old Red]

One more in our recent history of shunned offers...

 

I would call it partial offers.

[mvp 78]

One more in our recent history of shunned offers...

 

Lowball John.

[Bellhorn04]

Lowball John.

 

The Ballad of Johnny Lowball

[mvp 78]

@BOSSportsGordo

I don’t mean to alarm anybody because he’s been hit or miss before, but Carlos Baerga says the Red Sox are soon to announce an extension of Rafael Devers for 11 years $332M…

[moonslav59]

@BOSSportsGordo

I don’t mean to alarm anybody because he’s been hit or miss before, but Carlos Baerga says the Red Sox are soon to announce an extension of Rafael Devers for 11 years $332M…

 

Exactly what I predicted all along!

 

[mvp 78]

How can we doubt Red Sox Legend Carlos Baerga?

[moonslav59]

My prediction on mea culpas: zero.

[Hugh2]

Should the Sox resign Devers at any cost? Should they offer 350/10? And walk away if he wants more?

 

At this point, you either pay Devers price, or you're banking he gets less on the open market. That strategy failed miserably this year.

 

Teams that missed out big this offseason, and have money, will be competing for Devers next year. SF/LA and I'm sure others will push Devers contract much higher than we think.

 

 

Only off by $20 million

[Hugh2]

I’ve been so wrong this off-season I’m taking the victory lap on this one.

[moonslav59]

2 questions:

 

How many, here, thought we even had a 50% chance at extending Devers?

 

How many now view this winter's moves as a success, overall?

[Jasonbay44]

2 questions:

 

How many, here, thought we even had a 50% chance at extending Devers?

 

How many now view this winter's moves as a success, overall?

 

I would say I view it as less disappointing. Definitely don’t consider this a “success”. But we’ll see what happens

[moonslav59]

I would say I view it as less disappointing. Definitely don’t consider this a “success”. But we’ll see what happens

 

How about the first Q?

 

I went into this winter wondering, if we could extend Bogey or Devers, and I wished it was Devers: check.

 

I hoped we could replace Bogey's bat, elsewhere: check.

 

I hoped we'd add defense at SS as a bridge to mayer: unchecked.

 

I hoped we'd fix the pen and add a solid #2 SP'er. Half-checked.

[notin]

How about the first Q?

 

I went into this winter wondering, if we could extend Bogey or Devers, and I wished it was Devers: check.

 

I hoped we could replace Bogey's bat, elsewhere: check.

 

I hoped we'd add defense at SS as a bridge to mayer: unchecked.

 

I hoped we'd fix the pen and add a solid #2 SP'er. Half-checked.

 

 

If Yoshida can replace Bogaerts’ bat, this team could actually be better than last year’s…

[moonslav59]

If Yoshida can replace Bogaerts’ bat, this team could actually be better than last year’s…

 

And, IMO, Turner should outhit the 2022 JD.

 

Casas should easily out hit and defend our 1Bmen of 2022.

 

A healthy Kike and Story can gives a boost on O & D.

 

The pen is way better, even without Whitlock.

 

It will likely come down to the rotation and Yoshida.

Edited January 5, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

If Yoshida can replace Bogaerts’ bat, this team could actually be better than last year’s…

 

Xander 22:

134 wRC+

15 HR

377 OBP

456 SLG

9% BB

18.7% K

 

Yoshida 22 (119 games):

21 HR (probably regresses to 15 or less)

447 OBP (probably regresses to near where Bogey was last season)

561 SLG (probably regresses to less than Bogey last season)

16.9% BB (10%?)

8.1% K (15%?)

 

I think he'll be decent enough, but I'm not sure he's a one to one replacement. Bogey is a middle of the order bat. Yoshida really is a replacement for 2021 Kiké.

 

Kiké 21:

wRC+ 109

HR 20 HR

OBP 337

SLG 449

10.4% BB

18.8% K

[moonslav59]

Xander 22:

134 wRC+

15 HR

377 OBP

456 SLG

9% BB

18.7% K

 

Yoshida 22 (119 games):

21 HR (probably regresses to 15 or less)

447 OBP (probably regresses to near where Bogey was last season)

561 SLG (probably regresses to less than Bogey last season)

16.9% BB (10%?)

8.1% K (15%?)

 

I think he'll be decent enough, but I'm not sure he's a one to one replacement. Bogey is a middle of the order bat. Yoshida really is a replacement for 2021 Kiké.

 

Kiké 21:

wRC+ 109

HR 20 HR

OBP 337

SLG 449

10.4% BB

18.8% K

 

It certainly makes sense to ask if Yoshida can replace Bogey's bat, but we also have to think about how Bogey would have aged, and if the big RBI production drop was just some sort of fluke.

 

Last 1204 PAs: 38 HRs, 111 XBHs and 152 RBI.

 

2018-2019 in 1278 PAs: 56 HRs, 156 XBHs and 220 RBI.

 

Which Bogey would we see it 2023?

 

I'm not trying to bad mouth him out the door. I sincerely wish we had kept him around. He certainly is not the question mark on offense than Yoshida is, but I think between Yoshida and Turner, these two can match or exceed the 2022 production from Bogey and JD. The big question is, can they match anything close to the 2018-2019 versions of those two, and that is probably more like what we may need them to do.

[Hugh2]

It certainly makes sense to ask if Yoshida can replace Bogey's bat, but we also have to think about how Bogey would have aged, and if the big RBI production drop was just some sort of fluke.

 

Last 1204 PAs: 38 HRs, 111 XBHs and 152 RBI.

 

2018-2019 in 1278 PAs: 56 HRs, 156 XBHs and 220 RBI.

 

Which Bogey would we see it 2023?

 

I'm not trying to bad mouth him out the door. I sincerely wish we had kept him around. He certainly is not the question mark on offense than Yoshida is, but I think between Yoshida and Turner, these two can match or exceed the 2022 production from Bogey and JD. The big question is, can they match anything close to the 2018-2019 versions of those two, and that is probably more like what we may need them to do.

 

With me that's a possible big red flag with Bogaerts. Now he could have a monster year and quell some of those fears. But his power has declined, and his offense has been on a decline with his ISO dropping every year for the past 5 years. His offensive value was largely turned out by his ability to still draw walks and a BABIP .30 points higher than his career average last year.

 

A lot of his value last was also tied to his defense, which apparently was dramatically helped by the shift. He loses that advantage moving forward, and if he continues to lose a step he could soon be a corner infielder with fading power.

 

I would not be surprised if Bogaerts bounced back and had a great year, but he could just as easily be on the brink of a steep decline. Dont' get me wrong, Bogaerts offense is still elite for a short stop, but if he's not a short stop and/or that trend continues then thats a lot to think about for 11 years.

Edited January 5, 2023 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[moonslav59]

With me that's a possible big red flag with Bogaerts. Now he could have a monster year and quell some of those fears. But his power has declined, and his offense has been on a decline with his ISO dropping every year for the past 5 years. His offensive value was largely turned out by his ability to still draw walks and a BABIP .30 points higher than his career average last year.

 

A lot of his value last was also tied to his defense, which apparently was dramatically helped by the shift. He loses that advantage moving forward, and if he continues to lose a step he could soon be a corner infielder with fading power.

 

I would not be surprised if Bogaerts bounced back and had a great year, but he could just as easily be on the brink of a steep decline. That's a lot to think about for 11 years.

 

I would not be surprised, either. If he never regains his power, a higher OBP more than makes up for it.

 

To me, his full value will be tied to his defense and his age curve. As I have said, I think he will earn $170M/6 pretty easily. Anything beyond that is more speculative and expected.

 

Now, how much value ids translated to dollars has to do with the market rise rates, too, so we'll see.

 

I wish him well, and would have liked to have seen him stay, especially if we could have gotten him at $170M/6 or less, but with Devers under control, I'm fine with the the choices they made, overall.

[mvp 78]

It certainly makes sense to ask if Yoshida can replace Bogey's bat, but we also have to think about how Bogey would have aged, and if the big RBI production drop was just some sort of fluke.

 

RBI production is generally fluky year to year.

 

Hunter Renfroe:

2018 68

2019 64

2020 22

2021 96

2022 72

 

Bogaerts

2016 89

2017 62

2018 103

2019 117

2020 28

2021 79

2022 73

[moonslav59]

RBI production is generally fluky year to year.

 

Hunter Renfroe:

2018 68

2019 64

2020 22

2021 96

2022 72

 

Bogaerts

2016 89

2017 62

2018 103

2019 117

2020 28

2021 79

2022 73

 

Yes, and much of it was a result of a huge drop in XBHs (almost 30% from 2018-2019 to 2021-2022.)

 

Men on base and RISP play a big role, too.

 

I was impressed with Bogey's OBP and improved D numbers in 2022. He was still worth the deals we suggested. I'm just saying his power and run production number trends are concerning.

[Maxbialystock]

Before this season started I figured 250 to 275. Now with this crazy market I'd say 325 to 350

 

Nailed it!