Devers next deal

[moonslav59]

The MLBTR article about Bogaets signing with San Diego mentioned a 6 year $162mill offer…

 

Only reports that support his position count.

 

He even mentioned this report once and said it was not far from his $168M/6 position.

 

Now, he acts like Bloom was wildly off base.

[Old Red]

Only reports that support his position count.

 

He even mentioned this report once and said it was not far from his $168M/6 position.

 

Now, he acts like Bloom was wildly off base.

Any offer the Red Sox made to Bogey after he hit FA was to little to late, and you know that. We were talking about last offseason when an offer like this should have been made.

[moonslav59]

Why did Bloom not make a second offer? I’m still scratching my head why he made the first so called offer, and for you to say Bloom didn’t make a second counter offer, because he didn’t think Boris would accept it then why did he make the first offer. Did Bloom think Boris would leap at that one? That’s the wow.

 

You still won't answer the specific "wow."

 

Do you believe Bloom had an offer he liked and just chose not to offer it, because he misread the room and thought he could go lower, later?

 

Do you think Bloom thought there was an offer he liked AND felt BorA$$ would accept but for some reason did not even bother to make it?

 

To me, these seem like the only other options, and bot seem like bigger "Wows!" to me.

 

Tell me the Wow! I never said I thought Borass would leap at the first lowball offer. You can't explain where my position is wrong, except by inventing positions I never held or even implied.

 

[moonslav59]

Any offer the Red Sox made to Bogey after he hit FA was to little to late, and you know that. We were talking about last offseason when an offer like this should have been made.

 

Yes, I am talking about last offseason. I only mentioned this as a reply to you saying Bloom "never made another offer."

 

I actually agree with you on much of the whole Bogey situation. I don't agree with your wording or belief that the major mistake was "misreading the room," but I too, wish we had made an acceptable offer last offseason, or as you pointed out, before then too (even back to the DD years, which you seem to mostly shy away from.)

 

If BorA$$ and Bogey would have accepted $162M/6, alst offseason, I'm 100% with you and others that it was a big mistake by Bloom & JH. If we know JH would have agreed to that, I'm in on it b eing 100% Bloom's fault. I also realize that even $162M/6 might end up being a bad contract, but I doubt it. I think Bogey will earn more than that, even without inflation adjustments. I think it was a mistake not to offer that, then, yes.

 

I'm not sure he takes it, and I don't trust "reports" that say he would have, unless I hear it from Bogey or Borass, and actually, maybe not from Borass.

[Old Red]

You still won't answer the specific "wow."

 

Do you believe Bloom had an offer he liked and just chose not to offer it, because he misread the room and thought he could go lower, later?

 

Do you think Bloom thought there was an offer he liked AND felt BorA$$ would accept but for some reason did not even bother to make it?

 

To me, these seem like the only other options, and bot seem like bigger "Wows!" to me.

 

Tell me the Wow! I never said I thought Borass would leap at the first lowball offer. You can't explain where my position is wrong, except by inventing positions I never held or even implied.

 

You over analyze everything, and usually by doing so get it wrong. If Bloom wasn’t concerned about Boris rejecting the first offer why would he worry about Boris rejecting a counter off to that? That doesn’t make sense to me, but then again We’re talking about Bloom so maybe it does make sense to him.

[Old Red]

Yes, I am talking about last offseason. I only mentioned this as a reply to you saying Bloom "never made another offer."

 

I actually agree with you on much of the whole Bogey situation. I don't agree with your wording or belief that the major mistake was "misreading the room," but I too, wish we had made an acceptable offer last offseason, or as you pointed out, before then too (even back to the DD years, which you seem to mostly shy away from.)

 

If BorA$$ and Bogey would have accepted $162M/6, alst offseason, I'm 100% with you and others that it was a big mistake by Bloom & JH. If we know JH would have agreed to that, I'm in on it b eing 100% Bloom's fault. I also realize that even $162M/6 might end up being a bad contract, but I doubt it. I think Bogey will earn more than that, even without inflation adjustments. I think it was a mistake not to offer that, then, yes.

 

I'm not sure he takes it, and I don't trust "reports" that say he would have, unless I hear it from Bogey or Borass, and actually, maybe not from Borass.

Once again you are wrong. I never said Bloom never made another offer to Bogey. I said by reports he never made an offer to Bogey except for the 1 yr extension LAST OFFSEASON. I repeat LAST OFFSEASON.

[moonslav59]

You over analyze everything, and usually by doing so get it wrong. If Bloom wasn’t concerned about Boris rejecting the first offer why would he worry about Boris rejecting a counter off to that? That doesn’t make sense to me, but then again We’re talking about Bloom so maybe it does make sense to him.

 

What is the reason he did not make an other offer before that last gaps offer after he became a FA?

 

Tell me where I go wrong.

 

1. He did not think BorA$$ would accept a second offer based on what Bloom felt he was worth (maybe around $162M/6 last offseason or maybe even lower, then.)

2. He had an idea what BorA$$ would accept but did not think Bogey was worth what it would take to get to yes, and so never bothered to make a counter offer.

3. He thought going to free agency would show BorA$$ he was wrong about Bogey's FA market value and would end up settling on something around $162M/6- his final last gasp offer.

 

BTW, it is totally possible 2 or all three of these statements are true, and personally, I think #1 and #2 are likely true.

 

Again, you cannot or will not give specifics. It's no overanalyzing to give specificis to your position or where you think another poster is not only wrong, but wrong to the point where you call it a "conspiracy theory," whatever than means in the context of a contract negotiation. You throw words like "conspracy" and "Wow" around, like it's obvious what you mean, but then never explain it.

 

It's like debating a boulder.

 

[Old Red]

What is the reason he did not make an other offer before that last gaps offer after he became a FA?

 

Tell me where I go wrong.

 

1. He did not think BorA$$ would accept a second offer based on what Bloom felt he was worth (maybe around $162M/6 last offseason or maybe even lower, then.)

2. He had an idea what BorA$$ would accept but did not think Bogey was worth what it would take to get to yes, and so never bothered to make a counter offer.

3. He thought going to free agency would show BorA$$ he was wrong about Bogey's FA market value and would end up settling on something around $162M/6- his final last gasp offer.

 

BTW, it is totally possible 2 or all three of these statements are true, and personally, I think #1 and #2 are likely true.

 

Again, you cannot or will not give specifics. It's no overanalyzing to give specificis to your position or where you think another poster is not only wrong, but wrong to the point where you call it a "conspiracy theory," whatever than means in the context of a contract negotiation. You throw words like "conspracy" and "Wow" around, like it's obvious what you mean, but then never explain it.

 

It's like debating a boulder.

 

 

Totally misreading the room of what other publications are saying, and what other fans are saying, so by your analogy Bloom wasn’t needed at all.

Edited January 2, 2023 by Old Red

[notin]

Totally misreading the room of what other publications are saying, and what other fans are saying, so by your analogy Bloom wasn’t needed at all.

 

 

But all you’re doing is regurgitating the opinons of a bunch of other people who aren’t in the room, or other people quoting that same crowd.

 

This might be a shocking revelation, but sports talk shows that are at their core editorial opinions really are not established fact.

 

Not saying who is historically right, but if you’re entire counter argument rests on “but all these other people agree with me” is absolutely not establishing any facts that support your side…

[moonslav59]

Totally misreading the room of what other publications are saying, and what other fans are saying, so by your analogy Bloom wasn’t needed at all.

 

But your analysis was needed?

 

The fact that you won't or can't answer the most simple questions leads me to believe you have no answer other than the vague "misread the room."

 

You still have not explained why me thinking the Sox never wanted Bogey at a price he and BorA$$ would have ever accepted is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy of a "WOW!"

 

Again, I don't expect an answer that doesn't create a strawman or just further vagueries, but keep in tune with "other publications" that are not "social media" and your much wider exposure than old narrow-minded me.

[moonslav59]

But all you’re doing is regurgitating the opinons of a bunch of other people who aren’t in the room, or other people quoting that same crowd.

 

This might be a shocking revelation, but sports talk shows that are at their core editorial opinions really are not established fact.

 

Not saying who is historically right, but if you’re entire counter argument rests on “but all these other people agree with me” is absolutely not establishing any facts that support your side…

 

The fact is there are so few facts to explain anything that was done and not done in this whole Bogey situation.

 

We all agree the initial offer was a lowball and insulting one. We might not agree that it was all Bloom's doing or how much of an influence JH had on that offer.

 

We all agree no further offers or counteroffers were made, at least until that reported $162M/6 offer.

 

We are all trying to figure out why, and have come to a variety of conclusions based on what we know and beliefs or biases we held all along.

 

Nobody can claim they are right or the other is wrong until (and if) we ever get more specifics.

 

"Misreading the room" is certainly a viable opinion, although it is sort of nebulous and vague on what was actually misread. If they really thought they could have signed Bogey at $162M/6 and misread the market. Thats sounds totally plausible. It also does not negate what I believe happened along the way, or what others think happened.

 

My point all along is a pretty simple one, and IMO, not even close to "overanalyzing" as Red accuses me of doing. I think the Sox, whether it be Bloom only, half Bloom and half JH or mostly JH, felt they never wanted to pay Bogey what they thought he'd accept- whether that was near market value or not. I guess if they felt he was only worth $150M/6, last off season and $162M/6 a couple weeks ago, one could say that was "misreading the room," too, bjut in a much different way than the example above. That is one reason I keep asking Red, what exactly he means by "misreading the room," but maybe the "publications" never gave details, so Red has no foundation to explain. I'd be okay with calling this "misreading," too, but again, the final evaluation of that opinion is to be determined after we see what Bogey does, and it's merely opinions, right now.

 

I just want to know the specifics on where Bloom "misread the room," according to Red. I could be wrong, but I think he mentioned, one time, that Bloom misrepresented Bogey's value to JH, and JH went with Bloom's valuations of Bogey, and that Bloom misread Bogey's true value-making it NOT JH's fault. That is certainly a defensible position on the valuation aspect, but I'm not so sure about pulling the wool over JH and other upper management people on Bogey's value. I think the Sox have a set way to place value on players that the whole top brass involved in deciding who to sign or not knows about and likely trusts. Just my opinion, here.

 

I'm still not sure what is so crazy about believing the Sox never felt Bogey was worth offing a deal he'd accept all along the timeline. I'm not sure how it is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy on a nonspecific "WOW!" like I can't believe you actually still think this crazy idea.

 

[Old Red]

But your analysis was needed?

 

The fact that you won't or can't answer the most simple questions leads me to believe you have no answer other than the vague "misread the room."

 

You still have not explained why me thinking the Sox never wanted Bogey at a price he and BorA$$ would have ever accepted is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy of a "WOW!"

 

Again, I don't expect an answer that doesn't create a strawman or just further vagueries, but keep in tune with "other publications" that are not "social media" and your much wider exposure than old narrow-minded me.

 

I have answered you that the wow came from you saying Bloom didn’t make a counter to his 1 yr ext last offseason, because Boris wouldn’t accept it anyway, so I guess Bloom wasn’t even needed, and that would go for Raffy too. No need to make any offers, because Raffy won’t accept it anyways.

[notin]

But your analysis was needed?

 

The fact that you won't or can't answer the most simple questions leads me to believe you have no answer other than the vague "misread the room."

 

You still have not explained why me thinking the Sox never wanted Bogey at a price he and BorA$$ would have ever accepted is a "conspiracy theory" or worthy of a "WOW!"

 

Again, I don't expect an answer that doesn't create a strawman or just further vagueries, but keep in tune with "other publications" that are not "social media" and your much wider exposure than old narrow-minded me.

 

The bottom line is no one knows what went down and why behind the end result - Sox didn’t sign Bogaerts. Just about everything added on to that is nothing but speculation and dismissal of theories that introduce doubt…

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I am talking about last offseason. I only mentioned this as a reply to you saying Bloom "never made another offer."

 

I actually agree with you on much of the whole Bogey situation. I don't agree with your wording or belief that the major mistake was "misreading the room," but I too, wish we had made an acceptable offer last offseason, or as you pointed out, before then too (even back to the DD years, which you seem to mostly shy away from.)

 

If BorA$$ and Bogey would have accepted $162M/6, alst offseason, I'm 100% with you and others that it was a big mistake by Bloom & JH. If we know JH would have agreed to that, I'm in on it b eing 100% Bloom's fault. I also realize that even $162M/6 might end up being a bad contract, but I doubt it. I think Bogey will earn more than that, even without inflation adjustments. I think it was a mistake not to offer that, then, yes.

 

I'm not sure he takes it, and I don't trust "reports" that say he would have, unless I hear it from Bogey or Borass, and actually, maybe not from Borass.

 

But again, it seems exactly like what happened with Lester.

 

We don't "know" that Lester would have accepted $110 mill or thereabouts before the 2015 season, but that's what was reported, and most people seem to accept that's the case.

[moonslav59]

I have answered you that the wow came from you saying Bloom didn’t make a counter to his 1 yr ext last offseason, because Boris wouldn’t accept it anyway, so I guess Bloom wasn’t even needed, and that would go for Raffy too. No need to make any offers, because Raffy won’t accept it anyways.

 

I said that was one possibility for why another offer was never made. I never stated it as fact.

 

I also said another reason could be they never felt he was worth an offer that might be accepted. You don't make offer you don't want the other side to take, although I do think the late offer made to Lester may have been such an offer.

 

How does "misreading the room" explain why no further offers were made? To me, that response is a "wow." You won't give specifics, as always, and no this is not overanalyzing as my positions are a simple as can possibly be, while yours is as vague as anything.

[moonslav59]

But again, it seems exactly like what happened with Lester.

 

We don't "know" that Lester would have accepted $110 mill or thereabouts before the 2015 season, but that's what was reported, and most people seem to accept that's the case.

 

I've said I felt we never wanted Lester at market value, before during or even possibly with out last gasp offer that was short of the Cubs offer.

 

I'm thinking the two cases may be exactly alike and even that last $162M/6 offer was perhaps one we hoped he would not take, but IMO, I do think they wanted Bogey at $162M, it just came too late.

 

Before the market exploded, they likely did not think he was worth even $162M. but who knows. Certainly, I do not know or pretend to know. I'm just speculating like all of us are.

 

It would answer a lot of questions as to why we never offered it last season. We did not think he was worth that, then.

[Old Red]

I said that was one possibility for why another offer was never made. I never stated it as fact.

 

I also said another reason could be they never felt he was worth an offer that might be accepted. You don't make offer you don't want the other side to take, although I do think the late offer made to Lester may have been such an offer.

 

How does "misreading the room" explain why no further offers were made? To me, that response is a "wow." You won't give specifics, as always, and no this is not overanalyzing as my positions are a simple as can possibly be, while yours is as vague as anything.

 

I gave reasons the first time I made the Bloom misread the room some time ago. Why did Bloom make that first ridiculous offer last offseason. What did he expect would be the response, and the outcome?

[Bellhorn04]

I think the premise that Bogaerts would have accepted 6/162 before the season is a very plausible one. For one thing, he would be comparing it to what Story got. Bogaerts is a slightly better player who would be about one year older when the extension began. So 6/162 seems about right. And of course that's what the Sox finally did offer.

 

So the only real question is whether they bungled, or whether they got the actual result they wanted, and weren't being "totally candid" about it with the public...

[Old Red]

I think the premise that Bogaerts would have accepted 6/162 before the season is a very plausible one. For one thing, he would be comparing it to what Story got. Bogaerts is a slightly better player who would be about one year older when the extension began. So 6/162 seems about right. And of course that's what the Sox finally did offer.

 

So the only real question is whether they bungled, or whether they got the actual result they wanted, and weren't being "totally candid" about it with the public...

 

My opinion is well known, but I just don’t see why put on the big dog, and pony show if they didn’t want him. Most Red Sox fans I believe were already pissed at the lowball offer last offseason, so I don’t see any good reason to prolong that, and I don’t think it fooled to many.

[moonslav59]

I gave reasons the first time I made the Bloom misread the room some time ago. Why did Bloom make that first ridiculous offer last offseason. What did he expect would be the response, and the outcome?

 

All fair points and nothing anyone seems to disagree on, but in no way an opinion on what happened afterwards or suspected reasons for all the nonaction.

 

I gave my opinions on what I felt were the most likely reasons for all the non action. You called it "conspiracy theory" and commented with "WOW!" You regurgitate "misread the room" over and over, but give no speculation on why there were no further offers until it was too late and a mega dollar too low.

 

You don't have to give a reason, but you could specifically explain why you think other's speculations are "conspiracy" or "WOW-"ly wrong.

[moonslav59]

I think the premise that Bogaerts would have accepted 6/162 before the season is a very plausible one. For one thing, he would be comparing it to what Story got. Bogaerts is a slightly better player who would be about one year older when the extension began. So 6/162 seems about right. And of course that's what the Sox finally did offer.

 

So the only real question is whether they bungled, or whether they got the actual result they wanted, and weren't being "totally candid" about it with the public...

 

Exactly, and there is also a chance they did not think he was worth $162M/6 in March, but adjusted it to inflation and rising salaries and made the final offer that was higher than what they felt in March.

 

Is that "misreading the room" or doing what most GMs do- adjust their evaluations formulas with the times and new data?

 

Does it even matter if the reason was some sort of "misread" or a flaw in their value formula?

 

What matters most to the fans is it appears they did not value Bogey as much as we did.

[notin]

I gave reasons the first time I made the Bloom misread the room some time ago. Why did Bloom make that first ridiculous offer last offseason. What did he expect would be the response, and the outcome?

 

 

No one knows.

 

Maybe they bugged it. Maybe there were other factors…

[notin]

My opinion is well known, but I just don’t see why put on the big dog, and pony show if they didn’t want him. Most Red Sox fans I believe were already pissed at the lowball offer last offseason, so I don’t see any good reason to prolong that, and I don’t think it fooled to many.

 

One possibility is the Sox wanted Bogaerts, just not as a a shortstop. This is basically what they also did with Devers, per every report.

 

If Bogaerts was not open to changing positions, that means the Sox had 3 options:

 

1. Give in and let him play SS (or at least tell him he will and force him to change later)

2. Walk away

3. Change the years of the deal (since presumably the money would already align with his new position).

[moonslav59]

One possibility is the Sox wanted Bogaerts, just not as a a shortstop. This is basically what they also did with Devers, per every report.

 

If Bogaerts was not open to changing positions, that means the Sox had 3 options:

 

1. Give in and let him play SS (or at least tell him he will and force him to change later)

2. Walk away

3. Change the years of the deal (since presumably the money would already align with his new position).

 

It might have been a combination of that SS issue along with age projections and not wanting to go beyond 6 years.

 

I still think letting Betts go was a bigger let down, and because of Devers' age, letting him go would be worse.

 

The Lester fiasco got worse when they ended up signing Price to way more and longer than what Lester would have taken.

 

If they truly felt he was worth $162M/6 a couple weeks ago, that seems to be less than what most of us felt he was worth, even if he was mov es off SS in 1-2 years.

[notin]

It might have been a combination of that SS issue along with age projections and not wanting to go beyond 6 years.

 

I still think letting Betts go was a bigger let down, and because of Devers' age, letting him go would be worse.

 

The Lester fiasco got worse when they ended up signing Price to way more and longer than what Lester would have taken.

 

If they truly felt he was worth $162M/6 a couple weeks ago, that seems to be less than what most of us felt he was worth, even if he was mov es off SS in 1-2 years.

 

The whole thing was probably more complicated than we realize…

[moonslav59]

The whole thing was probably more complicated than we realize…

 

They do seem to have a way of placing value that differs from other teams.

 

If the Yoshida reports are true, it proves their formula is not short-changing everyone, and they did offer more for Turner, Jansen, Martin and Kluber than other GMs.

 

They've always seemed a bit tough on their own stars as they reach prime.

[Hugh2]

At this point, you're going to either have to grossly overpay for Devers or trade him. It's a lose-lose.

 

The lesson here should be.......now go out and extend guys like Casas/Bello within the next year.

[moonslav59]

At this point, you're going to either have to grossly overpay for Devers or trade him. It's a lose-lose.

 

The lesson here should be.......now go out and extend guys like Casas/Bello within the next year.

 

Indeed, and if you miss on a few, the misses will never be like Sale, HRam, Pablito, Crawford...

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, and if you miss on a few, the misses will never be like Sale, HRam, Pablito, Crawford...

 

Well, they might be.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Third baseman WAR 2019-22:

Arenado 20.8

Ramirez 18.3

Machado 17.6

Bregman 16.6

Chapman 16.0

Devers 14.0

Riley 12.0

 

Third baseman AAV (projected for '23 per bb-ref):

Rendon $38.6M

Arenado $35M

Machado $32M

Bregman $30.5M

 

Donaldson $21.8M

Moncada $17.8M (but appx. $25M for '24/25)

Devers $16.9M (projected by MLB.com)

Riley $15M (but appx. $22M through the next decade)

Ramirez $14M (increasing to $25M by '28)

Chapman $12.5M

Hayes $10M (then decreasing? through 2030)