Should the Sox extend Casas and Bello?

[notin]

I know it seems ridiculously early, but really, THIS was how the Rays did things back in the day (and Atlanta does things today). Give both contracts like 5-6 years for $20mill that wind up working out for the Sox even if the players don’t…

[mvp 78]

For Casas? No. His arb numbers will be awfully small at 1b. https://www.spotrac.com/spots/2022-mlb-arbitration-filings-1443/ He doesn't play a premium defensive position.

 

ATL extensions:

Acuna 8/100

Albies 7/35

Strider 6/75

Riley 10/212

Harris 8/72

 

Your extension $$$ is much smaller than anything the Braves put out there. I think it's something the Sox would want to sign after 2023, not prior to. Albies was signed after putting up 1.5 fWAR in half a season and it's now considered an insultingly bad contract.

[notin]

For Casas? No. His arb numbers will be awfully small at 1b. https://www.spotrac.com/spots/2022-mlb-arbitration-filings-1443/ He doesn't play a premium defensive position.

 

ATL extensions:

Acuna 8/100

Albies 7/35

Strider 6/75

Riley 10/212

Harris 8/72

 

Your extension $$$ is much smaller than anything the Braves put out there. I think it's something the Sox would want to sign after 2023, not prior to. Albies was signed after putting up 1.5 fWAR in half a season and it's now considered an insultingly bad contract.

 

I’m thinking more asking the lines of the extensions the Rays gave Longoria after 6 games and Matt Moore after 2 starts…

[Hugh2]

For Casas? No. His arb numbers will be awfully small at 1b. https://www.spotrac.com/spots/2022-mlb-arbitration-filings-1443/ He doesn't play a premium defensive position.

 

ATL extensions:

Acuna 8/100

Albies 7/35

Strider 6/75

Riley 10/212

Harris 8/72

 

Your extension $$$ is much smaller than anything the Braves put out there. I think it's something the Sox would want to sign after 2023, not prior to. Albies was signed after putting up 1.5 fWAR in half a season and it's now considered an insultingly bad contract.

 

Bad for Alvie’s right?

 

It’s an interesting concept, you never know if a guy who has performed well in a small sample will be your next Devers or Middlebrooks. But even if 1/2 those early contracts busted you’d probably still save money than buying those wins in FA.

 

There’s risk on both sides, Bogey might have been looking at another 100 million this off-season if he gambled on himself and hit FA a few years earlier (or several off seasons ago). Some players choose to gamble on themselves, which is why you see guys not get locked up early E.G. Devers, Betts.

[mvp 78]

I’m thinking more asking the lines of the extensions the Rays gave Longoria after 6 games and Matt Moore after 2 starts…

 

Longoria signed for 6/17.5, but MLB team payrolls increased 50% from 2008 to 2022, so a similar contract would be 6/27.

 

Y1: 2

Y2: 2

Y3: 3

Y4: 5

Y5: 7

Y6: 8

[mvp 78]

Bad for Alvie’s right?

 

Yes, Albies should retire very well, but could have made much much more money if he waited.

[notin]

Longoria signed for 6/17.5, but MLB team payrolls increased 50% from 2008 to 2022, so a similar contract would be 6/27.

 

Y1: 2

Y2: 2

Y3: 3

Y4: 5

Y5: 7

Y6: 8

 

Ok. Scale the offers accordingly..

[mvp 78]

Ok. Scale the offers accordingly..

 

Henry just called and the 4.5AAV is going to bust the luxury tax. El Cheapo won't let us do it this year, sorry.

[Nick]

No....

 

They are both under team control for another 6 years.

 

I would extending both after the third year, before their first arbitration year.

 

Buy out two years of arbitration. That gives the Sox 8 years of team control starting next year.

 

We have Xander, Devers and starting pitchers to worry about.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Nick

[notin]

Henry just called and the 4.5AAV is going to bust the luxury tax. El Cheapo won't let us do it this year, sorry.

 

 

Call him back and say “Notin cleared it.” Then just hang up.

 

You might need to use my personal passcode for authentication purposes. It’s “Draco kumquat weasel.” I didn’t choose it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Extending the identified young core of the next sustained contenders in Boston is definitely part of The Plan.

 

It wasn't invented by Bloom, even if he calls it something else ("a new calculus?"), though Longoria was one of the better-known guys to be extended by Tampa. The Astros with Bregman, Yankees with Severino, Braves with anyone good, have made the strategy more prevalent lately.

 

But didn't Cleveland seek to lock up everyone back in the 90s?

[Larry Cook]

Extending the identified young core of the next sustained contenders in Boston is definitely part of The Plan.

 

It wasn't invented by Bloom, even if he calls it something else ("a new calculus?"), though Longoria was one of the better-known guys to be extended by Tampa. The Astros with Bregman, Yankees with Severino, Braves with anyone good, have made the strategy more prevalent lately.

 

But didn't Cleveland seek to lock up everyone back in the 90s?

 

Atlanta is ahead of the curve.

 

Hang’em Chaim crashed and burned not knowing there was a curve!

[moonslav59]

Extending the identified young core of the next sustained contenders in Boston is definitely part of The Plan.

 

It wasn't invented by Bloom, even if he calls it something else ("a new calculus?"), though Longoria was one of the better-known guys to be extended by Tampa. The Astros with Bregman, Yankees with Severino, Braves with anyone good, have made the strategy more prevalent lately.

 

But didn't Cleveland seek to lock up everyone back in the 90s?

 

The Rays did extend Longoria in April of his rookie year, but I'm not sure the Guardians signed young players that early.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Rays did extend Longoria in April of his rookie year, but I'm not sure the Guardians signed young players that early.

 

It was when John Hart, now an MLB Channel analyst, was GM. I found an old article from 2014 when he was then advising the Braves, who were locking up young players like they're doing now.

 

"Here's the Hart Doctrine: if you're a baseball executive interested in keeping one eye on the present and the other on the future, and if you have a slew of young players with talent, then you should sign them to the longest contracts possible to drag them past the arbitration process."

 

"Hart had a tremendous nucleus -- Albert Belle. Carlos Baerga. Kenny Lofton. Jim Thome. Manny Ramirez. Sandy Alomar Jr. -- mostly kept intact with long-term contracts. Then he added free agents along the way such as Eddie Murray and Orel Hershiser."

 

Someone may point out no rings, but those clubs still won six division titles and two pennants... as sustained contenders. And they were fun to watch.

[moonslav59]

It was when John Hart, now an MLB Channel analyst, was GM. I found an old article from 2014 when he was then advising the Braves, who were locking up young players like they're doing now.

 

"Here's the Hart Doctrine: if you're a baseball executive interested in keeping one eye on the present and the other on the future, and if you have a slew of young players with talent, then you should sign them to the longest contracts possible to drag them past the arbitration process."

 

"Hart had a tremendous nucleus -- Albert Belle. Carlos Baerga. Kenny Lofton. Jim Thome. Manny Ramirez. Sandy Alomar Jr. -- mostly kept intact with long-term contracts. Then he added free agents along the way such as Eddie Murray and Orel Hershiser."

 

Someone may point out no rings, but those clubs still won six division titles and two pennants... as sustained contenders. And they were fun to watch.

 

Did they sign these guys to extensions while rookies?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did they sign these guys to extensions while rookies?

 

Not quite, but most had pre-arb years bought out where they doubled or tripled salaries by age 25 or 26. Payroll really increased for some stars in 1993, when Cleveland was still just a 76-win team. Then they finished first or second for the next eight years.

[Hugh2]

Yes, Albies should retire very well, but could have made much much more money if he waited.

 

There's a risk you take when you bet on yourself though, you could end up with nothing if you get hurt. To a very young man 35 million dollars is a LOT of money, and that's why some guys take it.

[Hugh2]

I'd dangle an 8/50 in front of Casas and see what he does. Bello I might be more inclined to wait until the end of 2023.

[mvp 78]

I'd dangle an 8/50 in front of Casas and see what he does. Bello I might be more inclined to wait until the end of 2023.

 

The Sox know these players and can project much better than we can. If they think Casas is a sure thing, I don't see the harm in offering him an extension, but they aren't typically done for 1b guys as it's a position that only the best of the best get paid a premium now. With pitchers, health can really derail a career. I think that's the biggest reason we haven't really seen those guys get early extensions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox know these players and can project much better than we can. If they think Casas is a sure thing, I don't see the harm in offering him an extension, but they aren't typically done for 1b guys as it's a position that only the best of the best get paid a premium now. With pitchers, health can really derail a career. I think that's the biggest reason we haven't really seen those guys get early extensions.

 

Severino signed one and has been hurt on and off ever since.

[mvp 78]

Severino signed one and has been hurt on and off ever since.

 

He signed 4/40, but after already being in the league for 4 years. At the time, that seemed like a pretty good deal. I don't remember if there were injury concerns prior to 2019.

[Hugh2]

The Sox know these players and can project much better than we can. If they think Casas is a sure thing, I don't see the harm in offering him an extension, but they aren't typically done for 1b guys as it's a position that only the best of the best get paid a premium now. With pitchers, health can really derail a career. I think that's the biggest reason we haven't really seen those guys get early extensions.

 

I think the biggest reason is if you're a young 1B and playing the majors odds are you can hit, and you can hit very well. The offense gets paid the big bucks in FA, and those guys often make bank, all things considered, an offensive bat playing up the middle will always get paid more but their value can drop more if their D takes a toll. Thats just my guess, but I think the Sox need to get back to doing that more, like at Atlanta, they pretty much have their entire starting lineup locked up. Some guys are always going to bet on themselves and take it to FA unless you drop Mookie money in front of them, but that's just the way it goes.

[Behindenemylines]

Give them a full season and then revisit the discussion next off season.

[notin]

Give them a full season and then revisit the discussion next off season.

 

That’s absolutely an option.

 

Smarter teams are locking up younger players when they’re in the first three years, before arbitration money kicks in…

[Bellhorn04]

It can also backfire, of course, as it may have with Tatis Jr.

 

And the Dodgers might be relieved they didn't do it with Bellinger.

 

As with just about everything there are benefits and risks.

[notin]

It can also backfire, of course, as it may have with Tatis Jr.

 

And the Dodgers might be relieved they didn't do it with Bellinger.

 

As with just about everything there are benefits and risks.

 

 

True.

 

Although bear in mind, Tatis is 23 years old and has 12 years left on that deal. Are we always labeling it a bust? Is that even an option being considered already?

[Bellhorn04]

True.

 

Although bear in mind, Tatis is 23 years old and has 12 years left on that deal. Are we always labeling it a bust? Is that even an option being considered already?

 

No, I'm not labeling it a bust. But his conduct is concerning to say the least.

[harmony]

On comp for Triston Casas might be Seattle first baseman Evan White, who in November 2019 signed a six-year, $24 million extension having never played above Double A.

 

White, who was 23 years old, was ranked in the 50-60 range on the following year's Top 100 prospect lists. Casas, who turns 23 in January, entered this season ranked No. 19, No. 16 and No. 44 at the major services.

 

White was coming off a season with a 132 wRC+ at Double A Arkansas while Casas is coming off a season of a 127 wRC+ at Triple A Worcester before his respectable debut with the Red Sox. Their career minor league lines:

 

EW 262 G, 1131 PA, .288/.356/.477/.833

TC 284 G, 1210 PA, .269/.374/.485/.858

 

White was the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college while Casas was the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school. White, at 6-3, 219 pounds, bats right but throws left while Casas, at 6-4, 252 pounds, bats left and throws right.

 

The White extension has not turned out well for the Mariners as the 2020 Gold Glove winner has posted a negative 0.6 fWAR/bWAR in 84 MLB games.

 

Therein lies the risk in signing a young player to an extension. Casas may have All Star potential but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

[notin]

On comp for Triston Casas might be Seattle first baseman Evan White, who in November 2019 signed a six-year, $24 million extension having never played above Double A.

 

White, who was 23 years old, was ranked in the 50-60 range on the following year's Top 100 prospect lists. Casas, who turns 23 in January, entered this season ranked No. 19, No. 16 and No. 44 at the major services.

 

White was coming off a season with a 132 wRC+ at Double A Arkansas while Casas is coming off a season of a 127 wRC+ at Triple A Worcester before his respectable debut with the Red Sox. Their career minor league lines:

 

EW 262 G, 1131 PA, .288/.356/.477/.833

TC 284 G, 1210 PA, .269/.374/.485/.858

 

White was the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college while Casas was the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school. White, at 6-3, 219 pounds, bats right but throws left while Casas, at 6-4, 252 pounds, bats left and throws right.

 

The White extension has not turned out well for the Mariners as the 2020 Gold Glove winner has posted a negative 0.6 fWAR/bWAR in 84 MLB games.

 

Therein lies the risk in signing a young player to an extension. Casas may have All Star potential but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

 

 

A 6 year $24mill extension hardly qualifies as a risk. If White continues to flop, how exactly is he impacting payroll? One less middle reliever? Maybe a homegrown backup catcher?

[moonslav59]

The Sox know these players and can project much better than we can. If they think Casas is a sure thing, I don't see the harm in offering him an extension, but they aren't typically done for 1b guys as it's a position that only the best of the best get paid a premium now. With pitchers, health can really derail a career. I think that's the biggest reason we haven't really seen those guys get early extensions.

 

To me, one of the hardest things to project for prospects coming to the bigs, is their OBP. I know the sample size is tiny for Casas, but I loved his plate discipline, late this year. I think he's a keeper. I'd offer him a long term deal and cross my fingers.

 

I think Bello is the real deal, and only injury can hold him back. I'd gamble on him, too, if he's willing.