2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[harmony]

For someone who complains about the many trade proposals Sox fans make, here, that one of his was about as lame as can be.

No trade was proposed. Only that "Baseball Trade Values accepts a trade of two years of Alex Verdugo for two years of Tom Murphy" to demonstrate that the BTV values cannot be viewed in a vacuum.

[harmony]

Well, the Sox can afford to deplete it a little.

 

For example, BTV also accepts a deal of Jarren Duran for Paul Sewald, in a move that makes sense for both teams. Except Seattle.

 

The thing is, should Boston really be trying to bolster their backup catcher corps. McGuire is already in Boston, is even cheaper than Murphy, is controlled longer, and was worth 0.9 bWAR in 36 games…

Seattle already released native son Reese McGuire to the Red Sox (by way of the Pirate farm system, Blue Jays and White Sox).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcguir001ree

[moonslav59]

Seattle already released native son Reese McGuire to the Red Sox (by way of the Pirate farm system, Blue Jays and White Sox).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mcguir001ree

 

How about Varitek for Murphy?

 

We could throw in D-Lowe.

[moonslav59]

Here is the list of the top valued SP'ers according to BTV:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

 

The ones listed as "high" availability:

 

30.2 Luis Castillo (6 yrs)

10.1 F Montas (1)

6.5 A Sampson (3)

 

"medium" availability:

45.6 Luis Garcia (4)

43.7 Brady Singer (3)

42.4 Triston McKenzie (4)

42.0 Christian Javier (3) - I suggested Bogey for javier, last winter, when they had identical values.

38.7 Pablo Lopez (2)

34.4 Garrett Whitlock (6)

27.1 Jesus Lazardo (3)

21.0 Matt Manning (5)

19.6 Braxton Garrett (5)

19.5 Bailey Ober (5)

17.5 Jeffrey Springs (2)

16.6 Jose Suarez (4)

15.4 Bryce Elder (5)

13.1 Adbert Alzolay

11.2 Tyler Mahle (1)

10.4 Brock Burke (4)

10.2 Cal Quantril (3)

9.4 Jordan Montgomery (1)

 

Notables:

8.8 Irvin Cole

7.4 JT Brubaker

 

[harmony]

How about Varitek for Murphy?

 

We could throw in D-Lowe.

The Mariners would need to throw in Darren Bragg.

 

In the deadline deals between the Red Sox and Mariners in 1996 and 1997, what player produced the highest WAR for his new team (by a safe margin)?

 

Win some, lose some.

[moonslav59]

The Mariners would need to throw in Darren Bragg.

 

In the deadline deals between the Red Sox and Mariners in 1996 and 1997, what player produced the highest WAR for his new team (by a safe margin)?

 

Win some, lose some.

 

Jamie Moyer?

[moonslav59]

Here is the list of the top valued SP'ers according to BTV:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/

 

The ones listed as "high" availability:

 

30.2 Luis Castillo (6 yrs)

10.1 F Montas (1)

6.5 A Sampson (3)

 

"medium" availability:

45.6 Luis Garcia (4)

43.7 Brady Singer (3)

42.4 Triston McKenzie (4)

42.0 Christian Javier (3) - I suggested Bogey for javier, last winter, when they had identical values.

38.7 Pablo Lopez (2)

34.4 Garrett Whitlock (6)

27.1 Jesus Lazardo (3)

21.0 Matt Manning (5)

19.6 Braxton Garrett (5)

19.5 Bailey Ober (5)

17.5 Jeffrey Springs (2)

16.6 Jose Suarez (4)

15.4 Bryce Elder (5)

13.1 Adbert Alzolay

11.2 Tyler Mahle (1)

10.4 Brock Burke (4)

10.2 Cal Quantril (3)

9.4 Jordan Montgomery (1)

 

Notables:

8.8 Irvin Cole

7.4 JT Brubaker

 

 

BTV accepts Casas & Wikelman for 4 years of Luis Garcia

 

Would anyone give up Mayer & Wikelman for 3 years of Singer & 2 years of Barlow?

 

Mayer & Wikelman for 4 years of McKenzie & 6 yrs of Oscar Gonzalez?

Edited October 12, 2022 by moonslav59

[cp176]

I would not trade Mayer

[moonslav59]

I would not trade Mayer

 

I'm torn between the idea or trading or not.

 

When have we ever had the consensus best pick of any draft?

 

I'm not one that thinks extending Bogey blocks him, either. By the time Mayer is ML ready, Bogey can be moved to 3B or 2B.

 

I'm thinking our best chance to win is not in 2023, so now is not the time to trade him.

 

Then, I think of what we might get for him, and if it's 5 years of a top pitcher, then I start wobbling.

[harmony]

I'm torn between the idea or trading or not.

 

When have we ever had the consensus best pick of any draft?

What? No love for Arizona shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar, who was drafted two slots behind Marcelo Mayer in the 2021 draft?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-lawlar/sa3017662/stats?position=SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS

 

Lawlar spent part of the 2022 season on the local minor league team while on my fantasy roster.

Edited October 13, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

What? No love for Arizona shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar, who was drafted two slots behind Marcelo Mayer in the 2021 draft?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-lawlar/sa3017662/stats?position=SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS

 

Lawlar spent part of the 2022 season on the local minor league team while on my fantasy roster.

 

I know Mayer was not drafted 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Maybe "consensus" was not all that accurate, but I recall reading some writers saying things like that.

 

Many services had him going #1. Have we ever drafted anyone like that before?

 

We've never had a draft pick with this hype. I'm certain of that- well since the early 70's when I started following the Sox, anyway.

Edited October 13, 2022 by moonslav59

[harmony]

I know Mayer was not drafted 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Maybe "consensus" was not all that accurate, but I recall reading some writers saying things like that.

 

Many services had him going #1. Have we ever drafted anyone like that before?

 

We've never had a draft pick with this hype. I'm certain of that- well since the early 70's when I started following the Sox, anyway.

Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Garciaparra come to mind.

[moonslav59]

Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Garciaparra come to mind.

 

Maybe the closest but still not close, IMO.

 

I don't think anyone had either of those two in the top 2 or 3, let alone 4.

 

Our highest draft picks:

3. Mike Garman '67

4. Mayer '21

4. Ken Brett '66

5. Billy Conigliaro '65

7. Beni '15

7. Trot Nixon '93

7. Trey Ball '13

 

12. Nomar '94

12. Adam Everett '98

12. Jay Groome '16

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The case for signing Judge: homers, rightfielder, stick it to Yankees.

The case against spending $300+ million on a 30-year old: tons of strikeouts -- 202 per 162-game average; Sox fans happy to no longer see JD flail at sliders down-and-away be careful what you wish for, because Martinez never fanned more than 150 times in Boston... plus, Story is here for four more years... Schwarber, another all-or-nothing whiffer, is not, but his contract was only for four -- imagine Boston watching Judge the next decade as his bat slows. Then there are the injuries: Judge has only played two entire seasons without missing time with physical issues... does anyone think his muscle tissue will become less brittle as he ages?

 

A competent CBO can certainly find better ways to invest $300M on more players plural for less years committed, especially in the middle of a rebuild to contention. Or just extend Devers, who is five years younger.

[Bellhorn04]

The case for signing Judge: homers, rightfielder, stick it to Yankees.

The case against spending $300+ million on a 30-year old: tons of strikeouts -- 202 per 162-game average; Sox fans happy to no longer see JD flail at sliders down-and-away be careful what you wish for, because Martinez never fanned more than 150 times in Boston... plus, Story is here for four more years... Schwarber, another all-or-nothing whiffer, is not, but his contract was only for four -- imagine Boston watching Judge the next decade as his bat slows. Then there are the injuries: Judge has only played two entire seasons without missing time with physical issues... does anyone think his muscle tissue will become less brittle as he ages?

 

A competent CBO can certainly find better ways to invest $300M on more players plural for less years committed, especially in the middle of a rebuild to contention. Or just extend Devers, who is five years younger.

 

I'm pretty sure Bloom isn't even thinking about Judge as an option for the Red Sox. It'd be fun to see the Yanks and maybe the SF Giants get in a little bidding war for him, though.

[notin]

I'm pretty sure Bloom isn't even thinking about Judge as an option for the Red Sox. It'd be fun to see the Yanks and maybe the SF Giants get in a little bidding war for him, though.

 

Don’t forget the Mets!

[notin]

The case for signing Judge: homers, rightfielder, stick it to Yankees.

The case against spending $300+ million on a 30-year old: tons of strikeouts -- 202 per 162-game average; Sox fans happy to no longer see JD flail at sliders down-and-away be careful what you wish for, because Martinez never fanned more than 150 times in Boston... plus, Story is here for four more years... Schwarber, another all-or-nothing whiffer, is not, but his contract was only for four -- imagine Boston watching Judge the next decade as his bat slows. Then there are the injuries: Judge has only played two entire seasons without missing time with physical issues... does anyone think his muscle tissue will become less brittle as he ages?

 

A competent CBO can certainly find better ways to invest $300M on more players plural for less years committed, especially in the middle of a rebuild to contention. Or just extend Devers, who is five years younger.

 

Me, personally, thinks “stick it to the Yankees” is a bad reason to sign a player. And I mean “shouldn’t be on the list of reasons why” bad.

 

Sticking it to the Yankees should come with continuing our newfound dominance in titles this millennia…

[Hugh2]

I know Mayer was not drafted 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Maybe "consensus" was not all that accurate, but I recall reading some writers saying things like that.

 

Many services had him going #1. Have we ever drafted anyone like that before?

 

We've never had a draft pick with this hype. I'm certain of that- well since the early 70's when I started following the Sox, anyway.

 

I know people love to say you draft BPA, which is generally true, but at the same time not at all. Teams love to cut deals and spread their money around, especially when they have a large pool at the top of the draft. Teams also put a lot of work and effort into guys who they think will be there and when someone is on the board you didn't expect to be there sometimes you keep the deal you had.

 

Pittsburgh took Davis first because they were able to cut a deal with him and saved 1.9 million dollars. The Rangers went slightly over for Jack Leiter, so who knows if they really thought he was better than Mayer, it might have been that they favored pitching (which they often do). Detroit took Jobe, who absolutely nobody had as a top 3 guy, the Tigers did go under slot with him not much but it had been reported that they were working out a deal with him before the draft.

 

I don't want to depict Hollywood and a different sport as an accurate picture of what happens in real life but I almost kind of think it's like the situation in the movie draft day when the Browns shocked everyone by not picking Bo Callahan overall. Then everyone went with the picks they had thinking he wouldn't be there instead of freaking out. I wonder if this is why Groome fell to us in 2016.

 

Mayer was widely regarded as the top prospect in the draft, and we were very lucky to have picked him AND got him to sign for slot. But, lets remember, Groome was also the best player in 2016 and we all saw how that worked out. Still, in one year Mayer has showed more promise than J-Groome ever did. I think this kid is going to be special.

[notin]

I know people love to say you draft BPA, which is generally true, but at the same time not at all. Teams love to cut deals and spread their money around, especially when they have a large pool at the top of the draft. Teams also put a lot of work and effort into guys who they think will be there and when someone is on the board you didn't expect to be there sometimes you keep the deal you had.

 

Pittsburgh took Davis first because they were able to cut a deal with him and saved 1.9 million dollars. The Rangers went slightly over for Jack Leiter, so who knows if they really thought he was better than Mayer, it might have been that they favored pitching (which they often do). Detroit took Jobe, who absolutely nobody had as a top 3 guy, the Tigers did go under slot with him not much but it had been reported that they were working out a deal with him before the draft.

 

I don't want to depict hollywood and a different sport as an accurate picture of what happens in real life but I almost kind of think it's like the situation in the movie draft day when the Browns shocked everyone by not picking Bo Jackson overall. Then everyone went with the picks they had thinking he wouldn't be there.

 

Mayer was widely regarded as the top prospect in the draft, and we were very lucky to have picked him AND got him to sign for slot. But, lets remember, Groome was also the best player in 2016 and we all saw how that worked out. Still, in one year Mayer has showed more promise than J-Groome ever did. I think this kid is going to be special.

 

The money and signability is a big reason always. Carlos Correa was taken number one overall but much of the pre-draft hype was all around Mark Appel and Kevin Gausman. (Correa was somewhat hyped as well, but proved to be more singable,) Or Matt Bush taken first ahead of much, much more hype around Jared Weaver and Stephen Drew.

[moonslav59]

I know people love to say you draft BPA, which is generally true, but at the same time not at all. Teams love to cut deals and spread their money around, especially when they have a large pool at the top of the draft. Teams also put a lot of work and effort into guys who they think will be there and when someone is on the board you didn't expect to be there sometimes you keep the deal you had.

 

Pittsburgh took Davis first because they were able to cut a deal with him and saved 1.9 million dollars. The Rangers went slightly over for Jack Leiter, so who knows if they really thought he was better than Mayer, it might have been that they favored pitching (which they often do). Detroit took Jobe, who absolutely nobody had as a top 3 guy, the Tigers did go under slot with him not much but it had been reported that they were working out a deal with him before the draft.

 

I don't want to depict Hollywood and a different sport as an accurate picture of what happens in real life but I almost kind of think it's like the situation in the movie draft day when the Browns shocked everyone by not picking Bo Callahan overall. Then everyone went with the picks they had thinking he wouldn't be there instead of freaking out. I wonder if this is why Groome fell to us in 2016.

 

Mayer was widely regarded as the top prospect in the draft, and we were very lucky to have picked him AND got him to sign for slot. But, lets remember, Groome was also the best player in 2016 and we all saw how that worked out. Still, in one year Mayer has showed more promise than J-Groome ever did. I think this kid is going to be special.

 

I don't recall all the hype about Groome being the best in the draft.

 

IMO, on draft day, Mayer was the best draft pick the Sox have ever had. Personally, I don't think Groome, Beni, Nomar or Billy C were close.

[Hugh2]

I don't recall all the hype about Groome being the best in the draft.

 

IMO, on draft day, Mayer was the best draft pick the Sox have ever had. Personally, I don't think Groome, Beni, Nomar or Billy C were close.

 

 

Pre-Draft Mayer was ranked by MLB, Baseball American and Perfect Game 1, 2, and 1 respectively. Groome was ranked 1, 3, and 1. That's pretty damn close, effectively the same hype.

[Hugh2]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/04/28/mlb-draft-top-prospects-order-jason-groome

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/5/12800880/2016-mlb-draft-review-boston-red-sox

 

I'm just going to stop there because it's all the same. You can go back and see for yourself, but PG, BA, MLB, Keith Law, and others all had Groome either #1 or top 3 and #1 at some point leading up to the draft. He fell apparently to signability/makeup issues.

 

Not trying to stain the Mayer pick, because "hey if Groome failed can Mayer fail" the answer is YES, but Mayer is off to a much better start than J-Groome ever got off to and appears to have no "makeup" issues. Maybe there's a little hindsight in the judgment here and add seven years into the equation then it gets easy to forget how highly Groome was regarded.

 

It's ok, I can barely remember what I had for dinner last night.

[moonslav59]

Pre-Draft Mayer was ranked by MLB, Baseball American and Perfect Game 1, 2, and 1 respectively. Groome was ranked 1, 3, and 1. That's pretty damn close, effectively the same hype.

 

I guess I wasn't paying that close attention back when we drafted Groome.

[Hugh2]

I guess I wasn't paying that close attention back when we drafted Groome.

 

I mean in hindsight, the hype around Groome fell quickly after he was drafted because he never really performed, he battled so many injuries too. Mayer, to date, has looked great.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Me, personally, thinks “stick it to the Yankees” is a bad reason to sign a player. And I mean “shouldn’t be on the list of reasons why” bad.

 

Sticking it to the Yankees should come with continuing our newfound dominance in titles this millennia…

 

Just a phrase; what it really means for Judge to play for the enemy is that the Yankees would no longer have him on their side. That would weaken New York considerably, but Boston would also have to anticipate a slip in production since he'd no longer get to feast off Red Sox meatballers.

 

In regards to the former: back when Steinbrenner signed Luis Tiant, even with his career winding down, there was definitely a demoralizing effect in the Sox' clubhouse and throughout the Nation.

 

I'd still rather Bloom spend on Rodon, Diaz and Haniger on 5-year deals.

[moonslav59]

I mean in hindsight, the hype around Groome fell quickly after he was drafted because he never really performed, he battled so many injuries too. Mayer, to date, has looked great.

 

For the longest time, the Sox hardly ever got a top 10 pick, so maybe I just wasn't all that into reading about the top players in the draft. I'm not doubting what was written, but I honestly don't ever remember hearing Groome was so highly regarded.

 

It's interesting we just traded Groome for Hosmer, a ton of cash, Ferguson and Rosier.

[moonslav59]

Just a phrase; what it really means for Judge to play for the enemy is that the Yankees would no longer have him on their side. That would weaken New York considerably, but Boston would also have to anticipate a slip in production since he'd no longer get to feast off Red Sox meatballers.

 

In regards to the former: back when Steinbrenner signed Luis Tiant, even with his career winding down, there was definitely a demoralizing effect in the Sox' clubhouse and throughout the Nation.

 

I'd still rather Bloom spend on Rodon, Diaz and Haniger on 5-year deals.

 

Boggs in NY was demoralizing, too.

 

I'm actually hoping some GM forces Cashman to wildly overpay for Judge. His contract will cripple them for years to come.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boggs in NY was demoralizing, too.

 

I'm actually hoping some GM forces Cashman to wildly overpay for Judge. His contract will cripple them for years to come.

 

Agreed, and even though a 5-year contract for a pitcher usually ends up as an albatross, let's face it: there's no way the Sox are going to get an ace to sign in Boston unless they offer the same years or more from other contenders. Let the trades begin.

 

One issue: Bloom's history is he takes forever to swing a swap, but maybe it's time to identify targets and get them, before someone else does.

[mvp 78]

What? No love for Arizona shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar, who was drafted two slots behind Marcelo Mayer in the 2021 draft?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jordan-lawlar/sa3017662/stats?position=SS

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/sa3017114/stats?position=SS

 

Lawlar spent part of the 2022 season on the local minor league team while on my fantasy roster.

 

Lawlar was highly rated at the time, but was behind Mayer. It was kind of a shock that Mayer didn't go 1/1.

[mvp 78]

Andrew Benintendi and Nomar Garciaparra come to mind.

 

Beni was a college guy. People liked him, but he wasn't really seen as a sure thing. Nomar was taken 12th, so that hype was definitely further behind. The hype for those guys developed after they started hitting in the minors.