2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

We probably could have started this thread earlier in the season, but whatever.

 

What are the moves you are expecting? Is Xander going to re-sign? Is Bloom going to get a good corner OF? Who gets a QO? Which FA's are going to be targeted?

 

C - Sox are probably good with McGuire and Wong

1B - Sox stick with Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec, maybe one gets traded

2B - I think this is Story's position for the next few years

SS - I want to say that the Sox do the right thing and figure out a way to keep Xander, they can move him off position (3B/LF) if Mayer ever earns the spot

3B - Sox MUST extend Raffy this offseason

RF - Sox fans want Nimmo, I think Bloom targets Haniger

CF - Kiké

LF - Verdugo

DH - I don't think they replace JD with a fulltime DH, I think they rotate it with Dalbec/Hosmer/Arroyo/Refsnyder/et al

 

SP - Sale/Paxton(Sox pick up the 2 year option)/Pivetta/Whitlock/Hill/Bello

RP - High Leverage FA/Houck/Schreiber/Barnes/Kelly/FA/FA/German

 

So my assumption seems to be 3 RP's (one high leverage/late inning guy), Haniger in RF, re-sign Hill and pick up Paxton's option. The only thing I can't pin my finger on is whether of not they re-sign Xander. I think they should, but it's probably 50/50. If they don't re-sign him, they'll need to either sign Swanson for similar money or trade for a CF/SS. The remaining FA options are either out of their price range or just not interesting IMO.

[notin]

If the Sox go against my advice and keep Hosmer in the DH mix from the left side, Dalbec is certainly a viable RHH option. But a much better choice is Miami’s Garrett Cooper. A moderately down season combined with an expected arbitration raise certainly makes him available.

 

If Bogaerts doesn’t come back, which I suspect, I like the idea of targeting Ha-Seong Kim from San Diego. If Tatis returns, he moves to the bench and should also become available, since teams looking to extend Juan Soto printable cannot afford $7mill utility infielders.

 

I do hope Bloom avoids Miami’s Miguel Rojas as a starting shortstop option. I mention him because, much like Reese McGuire and Jacob Stallings before him, the defensive metrics this past year for Rojas are just flat out spectacular. Like Andreltin Simmons good. However his offending numbers are just a as equally unimpressive, and he’s like 34 years old, so he’s much more likely to lose a step defensively than he is to have any sort of offensive epiphany.

 

Haniger is the brew Rocco Baldelli. The guy can pull a quad while brushing his teeth…

[notin]

As for pitching:

 

Sign Wacha, Fulmer and Montero. I do think the Sox will still need another SP, however. Paxton is certainly an option. If the Padres do make Snell available, go for it. Or one of the Miami starters like Lopez, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, or Sanchez…

[mvp 78]

If the Sox go against my advice and keep Hosmer in the DH mix from the left side, Dalbec is certainly a viable RHH option. But a much better choice is Miami’s Garrett Cooper. A moderately down season combined with an expected arbitration raise certainly makes him available.

 

If Bogaerts doesn’t come back, which I suspect, I like the idea of targeting Ha-Seong Kim from San Diego. If Tatis returns, he moves to the bench and should also become available, since teams looking to extend Juan Soto printable cannot afford $7mill utility infielders.

 

I do hope Bloom avoids Miami’s Miguel Rojas as a starting shortstop option. I mention him because, much like Reese McGuire and Jacob Stallings before him, the defensive metrics this past year for Rojas are just flat out spectacular. Like Andreltin Simmons good. However his offending numbers are just a as equally unimpressive, and he’s like 34 years old, so he’s much more likely to lose a step defensively than he is to have any sort of offensive epiphany.

 

Haniger is the brew Rocco Baldelli. The guy can pull a quad while brushing his teeth…

 

I agree that Bloom would be better suited to be active in the trade market. It's just harder to project those types of acquisitions. A guy like Cooper would make sense. Miami could also use Hosmer at the vet minimum for a few years plus whatever else the Sox hand over.

 

Kim would be a nice addition. I think he'd cost more than the Sox would be willing to give up for only 2 years of service.

[mvp 78]

As for pitching:

 

Sign Wacha, Fulmer and Montero. I do think the Sox will still need another SP, however. Paxton is certainly an option. If the Padres do make Snell available, go for it. Or one of the Miami starters like Lopez, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, or Sanchez…

 

Personally, I'd rather they not rely on an oft-injured guy like Paxton. As we saw in 2022, there is value in just going out there and being able to take the mound every fifth day. Blake Snell is an interesting guy, but he usually misses a few weeks every year too. I'm all in on getting a young starter in here.

[notin]

Personally, I'd rather they not rely on an oft-injured guy like Paxton. As we saw in 2022, there is value in just going out there and being able to take the mound every fifth day. Blake Snell is an interesting guy, but he usually misses a few weeks every year too. I'm all in on getting a young starter in here.

 

So … any of the Miami guys not named Sixto?

[moonslav59]

So … any of the Miami guys not named Sixto?

 

I get the feeling over 15 teams will be knocking loudly on Miami's door.

 

We will have to match or exceed every other offer.

[mvp 78]

So … any of the Miami guys not named Sixto?

 

He's well rested!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So … any of the Miami guys not named Sixto?

 

Sox need at least a two Sixtos, which would be a twelve-pack... but just to be safe, make it a case of starters.

 

Pitching, pitching, bitching. I'm ready.

[notin]

He's well rested!

 

So is Lefty Grove. Should we sign him, too?

Edited October 7, 2022 by notin

[notin]

I get the feeling over 15 teams will be knocking loudly on Miami's door.

 

We will have to match or exceed every other offer.

 

The Marlins will probably just try to move Lopez, s as he has the least control left.

 

As other team that might have a pitching firesale is Milwaukee. Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Lauer and Lindblom are all arbitration-eligible. They’d probably like to hold on to Burnes and/or Woodruff, but the others will very likely be available.

 

They can keep Lindblom…

[mvp 78]

So is Lefty Grove. Shortly we sign him, too?

 

Sox would have been better off signing Lefty for 2022 than Paxton.

[notin]

Sox would have been better off signing Lefty for 2022 than Paxton.

 

 

True. Lefty probably would have settled for a $7,500 salary and a bucket of whiskey. Although I’m not so sure he can physically sign anything these days…

[mvp 78]

True. Lefty probably would have settled for a $7,500 salary and a bucket of whiskey. Although I’m not so sure he can physically sign anything these days…

 

Would probably have to find the executor of the executor of the executor of the executor's estate at this point. Legally binding? Probably not. Lefty would look about as a live as John Henry though.

[notin]

Would probably have to find the executor of the executor of the executor of the executor's estate at this point. Legally binding? Probably not. Lefty would look about as a live as John Henry though.

 

I would imagine he’s lost some up on his fastball in the 50 years since he died…

[Maxbialystock]

We probably could have started this thread earlier in the season, but whatever.

 

What are the moves you are expecting? Is Xander going to re-sign? Is Bloom going to get a good corner OF? Who gets a QO? Which FA's are going to be targeted?

 

C - Sox are probably good with McGuire and Wong

1B - Sox stick with Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec, maybe one gets traded

2B - I think this is Story's position for the next few years

SS - I want to say that the Sox do the right thing and figure out a way to keep Xander, they can move him off position (3B/LF) if Mayer ever earns the spot

3B - Sox MUST extend Raffy this offseason

RF - Sox fans want Nimmo, I think Bloom targets Haniger

CF - Kiké

LF - Verdugo

DH - I don't think they replace JD with a fulltime DH, I think they rotate it with Dalbec/Hosmer/Arroyo/Refsnyder/et al

 

SP - Sale/Paxton(Sox pick up the 2 year option)/Pivetta/Whitlock/Hill/Bello

RP - High Leverage FA/Houck/Schreiber/Barnes/Kelly/FA/FA/German

 

So my assumption seems to be 3 RP's (one high leverage/late inning guy), Haniger in RF, re-sign Hill and pick up Paxton's option. The only thing I can't pin my finger on is whether of not they re-sign Xander. I think they should, but it's probably 50/50. If they don't re-sign him, they'll need to either sign Swanson for similar money or trade for a CF/SS. The remaining FA options are either out of their price range or just not interesting IMO.

 

Great start to the thread. I would be tempted to keep Verdugo in RF, where he seems to play way better than he has in LF--but I do agree he starts in the OF. I also like Kike in CF. I think you are way too optimistic on Sale/Paxton leading the rotation. However, I like your apparent prejudice against shelling out big bucks--again--for a starter. Depending on his price, I would be tempted to return Eovaldi. Interesting that you put Whitlock in the rotation, which I have advocated in the past. He definitely has the repertoire for starting and maybe too much repertoire to be a good reliever.

[moonslav59]

The Marlins will probably just try to move Lopez, s as he has the least control left.

 

As other team that might have a pitching firesale is Milwaukee. Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Lauer and Lindblom are all arbitration-eligible. They’d probably like to hold on to Burnes and/or Woodruff, but the others will very likely be available.

 

They can keep Lindblom…

 

Unless the Sox can extend an ace with one year left, I would not trade top prospects for one. I'd rather just offer more. Even 2 years remaining is dicey.

[Maxbialystock]

As for pitching:

 

Sign Wacha, Fulmer and Montero. I do think the Sox will still need another SP, however. Paxton is certainly an option. If the Padres do make Snell available, go for it. Or one of the Miami starters like Lopez, Rogers, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, or Sanchez…

 

Wacha. I forgot Wacha! Of course, sign him.

[mvp 78]

I would imagine he’s lost some up on his fastball in the 50 years since he died…

 

I mean, I think we can use modern technology to get him up to speed.

 

[mvp 78]

Wacha. I forgot Wacha! Of course, sign him.

 

2/20? Is that too low? His largest annual contract was this year's 7M.

[Maxbialystock]

This is way off topic, but in fact it is not yet the offseason for--count 'em--twelve freaking MLB teams. And this year I like the format even though it lasts a month, including a likely full week in November. Today, tomorrow, and Sunday four games a day unless any of the 8 team playing win their series in the first two games. Beats the wild card. Plus it sort of penalizes the teams--Cleveland and Atlanta--who won weak divisions. They have to play 3 game wild card series.

 

5 game Division Series make sense, and I would do the same for the League Series--but I won't quibble too much about 7. It is, after all, all about the TV revenues.

 

I see the Dodgers and Astros--the two best pitching staffs in MLB--getting to the WS and the Dodgers winning it all. If I had to pick a surprise team, it would obviously be the Jays.

[notin]

2/20? Is that too low? His largest annual contract was this year's 7M.

 

3 years $30mill. Not one penny nor one second less.

 

Just putting my agent hat on…

[notin]

This is way off topic, but in fact it is not yet the offseason for--count 'em--twelve freaking MLB teams. And this year I like the format even though it lasts a month, including a likely full week in November. Today, tomorrow, and Sunday four games a day unless any of the 8 team playing win their series in the first two games. Beats the wild card. Plus it sort of penalizes the teams--Cleveland and Atlanta--who won weak divisions. They have to play 3 game wild card series.

 

5 game Division Series make sense, and I would do the same for the League Series--but I won't quibble too much about 7. It is, after all, all about the TV revenues.

 

I see the Dodgers and Astros--the two best pitching staffs in MLB--getting to the WS and the Dodgers winning it all. If I had to pick a surprise team, it would obviously be the Jays.

 

 

I won’t say Atlanta plays in a weak division.

 

I would also say this format favors teams from weak divisions, as they had 76 games against weak opponents to bulk their record. Cleveland and St. Louis just didn’t capitalize on that opportunity…

[mvp 78]

Great start to the thread. I would be tempted to keep Verdugo in RF, where he seems to play way better than he has in LF--but I do agree he starts in the OF. I also like Kike in CF. I think you are way too optimistic on Sale/Paxton leading the rotation. However, I like your apparent prejudice against shelling out big bucks--again--for a starter. Depending on his price, I would be tempted to return Eovaldi. Interesting that you put Whitlock in the rotation, which I have advocated in the past. He definitely has the repertoire for starting and maybe too much repertoire to be a good reliever.

 

If they right pitcher was available, I'd consider shelling out big bucks this offseason, but I don't think he exists. This year's class is Rodon (if he opts out), deGrom, Wainright, Eovaldi, Bassitt, Kershaw and Verlander (if he doesn't take the $25M player option). I like Bassitt, but he's not going to command a huge salary. If he does, it's just not worth it. I don't see Wainright, Kershaw or Verlander leaving their current teams. DeGrom is a great pitcher, but has a large injury risk attached to him (his results look pretty good since coming back, but his launch angle, barrel % and exit velocity are all up, which may not be an indicator of future success in the AL East - he may be good, but underperform the enormous contract he wants). Most likely the Mets don't let him leave either. I like Eovaldi, but year to year, some of those AAV's aren't worth it at what he was previously paid.

 

A lot of people like Whitlock in the pen because he was a lockdown guy in 2021. I think he has the right pitch mix to be a successful starter. I think Houck is more suited for the pen as a two pitch guy. Sure, Whitlock's ERA will go up by a run, but that's to be expected. It doesn't mean he's "worse" as a starter. I'd rather get 170 innings out of him in the rotation. However, if the Sox do start the season with Whitlock in the pen, they just need to leave him there. The constant shuffling is just dumb.

[mvp 78]

3 years $30mill. Not one penny nor one second less.

 

Just putting my agent hat on…

 

I mean, I'd probably sign him for that. Even as a back end starter, it's decent enough value. I think Wacha is probably better than Winckowski/Seabold/Crawford.

 

I'm a sucker for Rich Hill and would bring him back too.

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of Wacha, he was brutal his final two starts of the year. Wonder what that was about.

[Bellhorn04]

I mean, I'd probably sign him for that. Even as a back end starter, it's decent enough value. I think Wacha is probably better than Winckowski/Seabold/Crawford.

 

I'm a sucker for Rich Hill and would bring him back too.

 

And I'm a sucker for bringing Eovaldi back. Seems pretty unlikely though.

 

If Bloom passes on QO's for both Wacha and Eovaldi, he better have a darn good reason.

[notin]

Speaking of Wacha, he was brutal his final two starts of the year. Wonder what that was about.

 

Those were the true Wacha. The previous 21 starts were the outlier.

 

The real reason was probably simple fatigue from a long season. Happens to tons of pitchers…

[notin]

And I'm a sucker for bringing Eovaldi back. Seems pretty unlikely though.

 

If Bloom passes on QO's for both Wacha and Eovaldi, he better have a darn good reason.

 

If the Sox offer Eovaldi a QO and he comes back, that makes sense to me. But a long term deal (3 years or more on this case) is probably a bad idea…

[moonslav59]

If they right pitcher was available, I'd consider shelling out big bucks this offseason, but I don't think he exists. This year's class is Rodon (if he opts out), deGrom, Wainright, Eovaldi, Bassitt, Kershaw and Verlander (if he doesn't take the $25M player option). I like Bassitt, but he's not going to command a huge salary. If he does, it's just not worth it. I don't see Wainright, Kershaw or Verlander leaving their current teams. DeGrom is a great pitcher, but has a large injury risk attached to him (his results look pretty good since coming back, but his launch angle, barrel % and exit velocity are all up, which may not be an indicator of future success in the AL East - he may be good, but underperform the enormous contract he wants). Most likely the Mets don't let him leave either. I like Eovaldi, but year to year, some of those AAV's aren't worth it at what he was previously paid.

 

A lot of people like Whitlock in the pen because he was a lockdown guy in 2021. I think he has the right pitch mix to be a successful starter. I think Houck is more suited for the pen as a two pitch guy. Sure, Whitlock's ERA will go up by a run, but that's to be expected. It doesn't mean he's "worse" as a starter. I'd rather get 170 innings out of him in the rotation. However, if the Sox do start the season with Whitlock in the pen, they just need to leave him there. The constant shuffling is just dumb.

 

The shuffling sand piggy-backing needs to stop with Houck and Whitlock.

 

I share your views on which of the two is better suited for starting and relieving, but moving Whitlock to the rotation has to coincide with major additions to the pen, which I'm not so sure will happen, or if they do, will it mean we go with Dugo, Refsnyder and some scrub signing at corner OF or count on Arroyo to play FT in the middle IF, to save enough resources to pay for the pen upgrades?

 

This rotation looks okay, not great, to me:

 

Wacha

Sale

Whitlock

Pivetta

Bello

(Crawford, Wink, Mata, Walter)

 

The pen would then look like this:

 

___FA___

Houck

___FA___

Schreiber

___FA___

Barnes

Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish, Brasier, converted SP'er...