2023 Free Agents

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think whether or not it surprised them matters and I don’t think the roster was as full of holes as many claim.

 

One issue fans struggle to acknowledge is that the gap between the best and worst MLB teams is significantly closer than the equivalent gap in other sports. And that’s why teams can turn around fast and why trans can put together surprisingly stellar seasons despite being “full of holes”…

 

Or to look it at from another angle, baseball is a sport where a team can field what seems to be on paper identical teams two years in a row, like 2018 and 2019, and go from 108 wins to 84 wins, because of differences in performance by the same guys.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think whether or not it surprised them matters and I don’t think the roster was as full of holes as many claim.

 

 

Way less holes when compared to the winter before 2020, and the deadline trades of 2020 helped fill some, but we had some holes in the pen and rotation that are not hindsight observations. One can argue 1B and RF were not "holes," but we had nothing of note as back-up plans for those two slots.

 

My point was maybe not really "holes," per se, and yes I'm walking back my statement, but not really enough championship caliber players to realistically think we had a strong enough chance at a ring to make one or two more "splash" signings beyond Story, and maybe going $19M over the tax line.

 

I don't think upper management viewed 2022 as "the year." I don't think they viewed 2022 that way, either, but maybe the run by the Phillies, and to a lesser extent our run in 2021, might change that way of thinking.

[Hugh2]

I don’t think whether or not it surprised them matters and I don’t think the roster was as full of holes as many claim.

 

One issue fans struggle to acknowledge is that the gap between the best and worst MLB teams is significantly closer than the equivalent gap in other sports. And that’s why teams can turn around fast and why trans can put together surprisingly stellar seasons despite being “full of holes”…

 

If we should have learned one lesson from the last few years, and many won't, it's the margin between first and last is not as great as we think.

 

Yes, 2021 we overperformed, but it's also true that 2022 was and underperformance. It can certainly be true that many teams overperform and end up winning the world series. You just have to be good and stay healthy to have a chance.

[moonslav59]

One issue fans struggle to acknowledge is that the gap between the best and worst MLB teams is significantly closer than the equivalent gap in other sports. And that’s why teams can turn around fast and why trans can put together surprisingly stellar seasons despite being “full of holes”…

 

The NFL is probably better known for parity than MLB.

 

It seems like teams like the Yanks are no longer just throwing money at every "hole" or weaker slots- only the Dodgers seem to be doing that. Other "model" franchises like the Astros, Rays and Braves seem to have figured out how to keep the pipeline strong and deep to a level they rate to b e competitive for many years to come.

 

I sense the Sox are headed in that direction, but it's hard to know, until we start seeing results from our pipeline. I applaud Bloom for the effort, but the results time is here and now- maybe until 2024.

[moonslav59]

If we should have learned one lesson from the last few years, and many won't, it's the margin between first and last is not as great as we think.

 

Yes, 2021 we overperformed, but it's also true that 2022 was and underperformance. It can certainly be true that many teams overperform and end up winning the world series. You just have to be good and stay healthy to have a chance.

 

I don't disagree, but it seems like the very highly competitive teams are the ones winning the vast majority of rings. Even when a team like the Nats or Braves win it all, we can see that much effort and resources went into building up their rosters. While teams like the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies widen our eyes to hopes of miracle runs to rings, they are few and far between.

 

IMO, to win a ring, teams need to strategically plan for a window- somehow the Astros have created a 10 year window and then "POUNCE" in the year or two you think your chances are the highest. It's still no guarnatee, but to me, that seems like the best way to win a ring every 4-7 years.

[Hugh2]

I don't disagree, but it seems like the very highly competitive teams are the ones winning the vast majority of rings. Even when a team like the Nats or Braves win it all, we can see that much effort and resources went into building up their rosters. While teams like the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies widen our eyes to hopes of miracle runs to rings, they are few and far between.

 

IMO, to win a ring, teams need to strategically plan for a window- somehow the Astros have created a 10 year window and then "POUNCE" in the year or two you think your chances are the highest. It's still no guarnatee, but to me, that seems like the best way to win a ring every 4-7 years.

 

But in hindsight, if we won in 2021, it would have been with a payroll above the luxury tax line. You could say the same thing about the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't disagree, but it seems like the very highly competitive teams are the ones winning the vast majority of rings. Even when a team like the Nats or Braves win it all, we can see that much effort and resources went into building up their rosters. While teams like the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies widen our eyes to hopes of miracle runs to rings, they are few and far between.

 

IMO, to win a ring, teams need to strategically plan for a window- somehow the Astros have created a 10 year window and then "POUNCE" in the year or two you think your chances are the highest. It's still no guarnatee, but to me, that seems like the best way to win a ring every 4-7 years.

 

There's no magic formula, but the Astros sure seem to be the smartest guys in the room these days. Spotting talent, knowing when to let guys go, the whole package.

[mvp 78]

There's no magic formula, but the Astros sure seem to be the smartest guys in the room these days. Spotting talent, knowing when to let guys go, the whole package.

 

I think they are fighting their way through some disfunction. I think they have some brilliant guys, but the owner is really getting in the way.

[moonslav59]

But in hindsight, if we won in 2021, it would have been with a payroll above the luxury tax line. You could say the same thing about the Sox.

 

Agreed. I just think the Sox upper management did not think 2021 was "the year." They kind of started thinking that way at the deadline, but even then, they did not make any major prospect for stud trades.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. I just think the Sox upper management did not think 2021 was "the year." They kind of started thinking that way at the deadline, but even then, they did not make any major prospect for stud trades.

 

Well, they said they would be competitive. If they thought that way, they shouldn't have been too surprised.

[moonslav59]

Well, they said they would be competitive. If they thought that way, they shouldn't have been too surprised.

 

What are they going to say?

 

I do think they felt they could be competitive enough to compete for a playoff slot- just not a top ring contender, until maybe mid season, when they starting thinking, "Holy s***!"

 

I think, not going over the tax line in 2021 was a sign they did not think it was "the year." It wasn't even close to the tax level on opening day.

 

Just my opinion.

[mvp 78]

What are they going to say?

 

I do think they felt they could be competitive enough to compete for a playoff slot- just not a top ring contender, until maybe mid season, when they starting thinking, "Holy s***!"

 

I think, not going over the tax line in 2021 was a sign they did not think it was "the year." It wasn't even close to the tax level on opening day.

 

Just my opinion.

 

The only reason you think they shouldn't have been competitive is because you were endlessly banging the cliff narrative. The foundation of the team was still largely the same as the 2018 team. It had changed, but wasn't completely gutted. Post 2022, it now doesn't resemble 2018.

[moonslav59]

The only reason you think they shouldn't have been competitive is because you were endlessly banging the cliff narrative. The foundation of the team was still largely the same as the 2018 team. It had changed, but wasn't completely gutted. Post 2022, it now doesn't resemble 2018.

 

Of course my reasoning behind my seeing an approaching cliff had something to do with my thinking upper management had low expectations for a ring competitive team by 2021. The time frame iks close enough to be linked together.

 

I did not expect the downfall to begin in 2019. I actually said maybe we could extend the window to 2020, if we played our cards right and decided to spend.

 

The 2020 team did not resemble the 2018 team, and that was clearly a "cliff season." Whether we consider the cliff to be more than 1 year in length can be debated, but to me, the rebuild was obvious in 2020, and the 2021 was a continuation of the rebuild, although with hopes we could maybe squeak into the playoffs and give fans some excitement and hope. The sheer amount of one year deals supports the idea that 2021 was not part of some idea that a 3-4 year window was about to begin. It looked like a punt season with hopes of semi-competitiveness, in my opinion.

 

I'm not sure the success of 2021 changed the longer term plans all that much. The 2022 roster construction continued to fill many slots with short term additions, until the Story signing.

 

IMO, the 2023 season was always viewed as the season where major changes and additions would take place, with more on longer term deals, as farm infusions started becoming more meaningful and plentiful. I'm not sure they ever felt that even 2023 would be a top competitive team, since we are relying on several young prospects or recent grads to fill some very key roles to get to win a ring.

 

I realize my position is just speculation, but I think I have some supporting evidence, such as all the one year deals and only the Story signing and Whitlock extension as any meaningful long term decision made. No major prospects have been traded. Betts was traded. Bogey may be gone, soon. Devers is on the clock. So far, this does not look like a management team in win-now mode.

[Bellhorn04]

The bottom line is, there was no cliff. There was just a valley that a bridge had to be built across.

 

That's right folks, 2021 and 2022 have been Bridge Years.

[notin]

The bottom line is, there was no cliff. There was just a valley that a bridge had to be built across.

 

That's right folks, 2021 and 2022 have been Bridge Years.

 

I’d argue there was a cliff. And the Sox plummeted over the edge in 2020…

[mvp 78]

The bottom line is, there was no cliff. There was just a valley that a bridge had to be built across.

 

That's right folks, 2021 and 2022 have been Bridge Years.

 

Is there a toll at the end of it?

[mvp 78]

I’d argue there was a cliff. And the Sox plummeted over the edge in 2020…

 

Sale's injury and ERod's COVID diagnosis was preplanned?

[notin]

Sale's injury and ERod's COVID diagnosis was preplanned?

 

Sale wasn’t much in the last half of 2019. The Sox did drop 24 games in 2019 and ran into payroll issues that “top prospects” Houck and Dalbec were not able to alleviate.

 

The Cliff was all about the lack of prospects coming up being able to fill in while the high-priced veterans declined. Did that happen or not?

[notin]

So reportedly Verlander is looking for a contract similar to Max Scherzer’s 3 year $130mill deal with the Mets? At forty years old!

 

Would it be legal for a team to offer him an incentive-laden contract?

 

Something like a league minimum base salary plus $1.5million per start? The MLBPA only allows for incentives to be participation-based, which this is. If Verlander makes all 33 starts, he would earn $50mlion. He wouldn’t drop under $40mill unless he missed 7 or more starts. And the team would be protected somewhat in the event of injury.

 

Would this be legal? Would any team do this? Would Verlander hypothetically go for it?

[Hugh2]

So reportedly Verlander is looking for a contract similar to Max Scherzer’s 3 year $130mill deal with the Mets? At forty years old!

 

Would it be legal for a team to offer him an incentive-laden contract?

 

Something like a league minimum base salary plus $1.5million per start? The MLBPA only allows for incentives to be participation-based, which this is. If Verlander makes all 33 starts, he would earn $50mlion. He wouldn’t drop under $40mill unless he missed 7 or more starts. And the team would be protected somewhat in the event of injury.

 

Would this be legal? Would any team do this? Would Verlander hypothetically go for it?

 

I know mlb deals include incentives but I’m not sure about how involved they would be. But Verlander would never go for it because someone is giving him a ton of guaranteed money

[mvp 78]

Sale wasn’t much in the last half of 2019. The Sox did drop 24 games in 2019 and ran into payroll issues that “top prospects” Houck and Dalbec were not able to alleviate.

 

The Cliff was all about the lack of prospects coming up being able to fill in while the high-priced veterans declined. Did that happen or not?

 

They declined so horribly that Betts went off and is a superstar in LA, Benintendi was an All Star in 2022, JD was an All Star in 2022 and Bogey is going to make $200M.

[mvp 78]

So reportedly Verlander is looking for a contract similar to Max Scherzer’s 3 year $130mill deal with the Mets? At forty years old!

 

Would it be legal for a team to offer him an incentive-laden contract?

 

Something like a league minimum base salary plus $1.5million per start? The MLBPA only allows for incentives to be participation-based, which this is. If Verlander makes all 33 starts, he would earn $50mlion. He wouldn’t drop under $40mill unless he missed 7 or more starts. And the team would be protected somewhat in the event of injury.

 

Would this be legal? Would any team do this? Would Verlander hypothetically go for it?

 

If I'm Verlander, I'm holding out for guaranteed money.

[Old Red]

The only reason you think they shouldn't have been competitive is because you were endlessly banging the cliff narrative. The foundation of the team was still largely the same as the 2018 team. It had changed, but wasn't completely gutted. Post 2022, it now doesn't resemble 2018.

I’ve heard of kinds of talk about cliffs, and rebuilds on here, but not from the Red Sox Brass. When the Red Sox have had players like JD, Raffy, Bogey, Vaz, Evol, and others is that what you do a rebuild with. You’ve had Bogey, and Raffy in their prime years, and before this year JD had been productive too. It just seems like a big waste to me to have wasted prime years from the likes of Bogey, and Raffy to do any kind of rebuilds if that’s what it was.

[notin]

If I'm Verlander, I'm holding out for guaranteed money.

 

Ok.

 

But with such a contract be legal?

[notin]

They declined so horribly that Betts went off and is a superstar in LA, Benintendi was an All Star in 2022, JD was an All Star in 2022 and Bogey is going to make $200M.

 

Betts was worth fewer fWAR in 2021 and 2022 combined than he was in 2018. Benintendi disappeared completely in 2020, and has slowly rebounded over the past two years.

 

No mention of Sale? Kimbrel? Barnes? Martinez? They all maintained, right? And who stepped up from the farm to help out?

[Bellhorn04]

I’d argue there was a cliff. And the Sox plummeted over the edge in 2020…

 

2020 was a 60 game season in a global pandemic. If it had continued into 2021 then you might be able to call it a cliff. But it didn't.

[moonslav59]

I’d argue there was a cliff. And the Sox plummeted over the edge in 2020…

 

It may hav4e been shorter than many of us imagines it would be, and maybe that is one reason we have been more supportive of Bloom's work rebuilding the team from that horrific 2020 trench, cliff, valley or whatever you want to call it.

 

It was real. It happened.

[moonslav59]

Sale's injury and ERod's COVID diagnosis was preplanned?

 

Yes on 1- No on 2.

[Bellhorn04]

It may hav4e been shorter than many of us imagines it would be, and maybe that is one reason we have been more supportive of Bloom's work rebuilding the team from that horrific 2020 trench, cliff, valley or whatever you want to call it.

 

It was real. It happened.

 

2020 was just one of 5 last place finishes since 2012. We can't even call it an outlier.

[moonslav59]

They declined so horribly that Betts went off and is a superstar in LA, Benintendi was an All Star in 2022, JD was an All Star in 2022 and Bogey is going to make $200M.

 

Part of the whole idea of an impending cliff was over the budget situation, and dumping Betts and Price was part of the situation at hand after 2019. We cut about $60M from 2019. If that is not a re-write of the team, what is?