2023 Free Agents

[Bellhorn04]

Pivetta is an 'innings eater.' That's what starters are called when there isn't much else good to say about them. He's definitely a #5. If he's higher than that, the SOX starting staff is already in trouble.

 

Believe it or not, Pivetta has been an average pitcher, ERA-wise, with the Red Sox, with an ERA+ of 102.

 

An average starter is, by definition, a #3 starter, on an average team.

 

On a good team, probably a #4.

[moonslav59]

Pivetta is an 'innings eater.' That's what starters are called when there isn't much else good to say about them. He's definitely a #5. If he's higher than that, the SOX starting staff is already in trouble.

 

He compares very favorably against most team's number 3s and even some #2s. He's one of the best #4s in MLB over the past 2 years. There may be 3 or 4 teams with an equal or better 5 starter.

 

This might be a crude and flawed way of ranking SP'ers, but I think it is helpful when giving comparative value to SP'er. From 2021-2022, there have been 146 SP'er with 120+ IP. That's about 5 per team (30 teams x 5= 150.)

 

One could argue 1-30 ate #1s, 31-60 are #2s and so on.

Here is where Pivetta ranks in some key categories:

 

31. IP at 315

62. fWAR at 3.9

74. K-BB% at 15%

81. SIERA at 4.17

95. xFIP at 4.26

96. ERA- at 106

100. WHIP at 1.32

 

Ranked categories

1 in high #2 (IP)

3 in #3 (fWAR, K-BB% and SIERA)

3 in upper #4 (ERA-, WHIP and xFIP)

 

In terms of comparative analysis, he looks like a solid #3. If he ends up our #4, I'd be fine with him there and maybe Bello, Paxton, Houck or Whitlock (Mata?) as the #5. If he ends up our #5, he should b e one of the best #5s in MLB.

 

[notin]

And yet his 2022 OPS+ is exactly 2 points lower than his 2019 OPS+.

 

You have to keep in mind that the baseballs are not juiced now like they were a few years ago, and offense is down period.

 

Some numbers for Bogey for 2018-2022, leaving out the shortened 2020:

 

OPS+

2018 135

2019 139

2021 129

2022 137

 

wRC+

2018 133

2019 141

2021 130

2022 139

 

fWAR

2018 4.4

2019 5.9

2021 4.4

2022 5.9

 

Conclusion: amazingly consistent and not in decline.

 

 

There’s a difference in losing power and declining.

 

The problem with OPS and OPS+ here is Bogaerts has seen rises in OBP, due to a slight increase in BB% but also, this year especially, a huge bump in BABIP (.375!!).

 

Some of this is likely due to the fact that his last two seasons are his two highest for LD% per Fangraphs. (It’s hard to quantify that without knowing exactly what Fangraphs considers a line drive.)

[Bellhorn04]

There’s a difference in losing power and declining.

 

The problem with OPS and OPS+ here is Bogaerts has seen rises in OBP, due to a slight increase in BB% but also, this year especially, a huge bump in BABIP (.375!!).

 

Some of this is likely due to the fact that his last two seasons are his two highest for LD% per Fangraphs. (It’s hard to quantify that without knowing exactly what Fangraphs considers a line drive.)

 

It's quite possible he has lost some power.

 

But he has made up for it in every other way.

 

That's what the advanced stats say, anyway.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Believe it or not, Pivetta has been an average pitcher, ERA-wise, with the Red Sox, with an ERA+ of 102.

 

An average starter is, by definition, a #3 starter, on an average team.

 

On a good team, probably a #4.

 

Just another statistic that enforces the fact there's too many teams in MLB. But this is also true of the 3 other major sports.

[Bellhorn04]

Just another statistic that enforces the fact there's too many teams in MLB. But this is also true of the 3 other major sports.

 

Maybe so, but go back and look at some good Red Sox teams of the past, even World Series champs, and you'll find that the #3 starter usually did not have great numbers.

[moonslav59]

It's quite possible he has lost some power.

 

But he has made up for it in every other way.

 

That's what the advanced stats say, anyway.

 

True. That's the beauty in advanced stats like WAR. Bogey's D and OBP have made up for the declining power.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There’s a difference in losing power and declining.

 

The problem with OPS and OPS+ here is Bogaerts has seen rises in OBP, due to a slight increase in BB% but also, this year especially, a huge bump in BABIP (.375!!).

Some of this is likely due to the fact that his last two seasons are his two highest for LD% per Fangraphs. (It’s hard to quantify that without knowing exactly what Fangraphs considers a line drive.)

 

I have watched just about every game on TV, and remember more Bogie ground ball hits poked to the right side -- vacated by the shift -- then pulled through the left side. The league is basically offering X the batting crown, and now that the Sox are out of the race he has no reason to drive the ball and try to plate any baserunners.

 

Gotta wonder if the shift ban hurts Xander's batting average next year -- but probably not his attraction to potential suitors during free agency. Chances are, he adjusts and regains his power (if healthy).

[moonslav59]

Maybe so, but go back and look at some good Red Sox teams of the past, even World Series champs, and you'll find that the #3 starter usually did not have great numbers.

 

The usual winning formula was based on 2 aces and not much missed time by the top 4-5 starters.

 

2004: Pedro & Schill

(top 5 starters had 29+ GS'd)

 

2007: Beckett & Schill

(top 5 starters had 23+ GS'd and Lester had 11)

 

2013: Lester & Lackey

(top 4 starters had 29+ GS'd and Buch 16/Peavy 10)

 

2018: Sale & Price -plus Porcello 103 ERA+), ERod (116) and Nate (133)

(top 4 starters with 27 GS'd and Nate 11, Pom 11, BJohnson 13, Velazquez 8)

 

[moonslav59]

I have watched just about every game on TV, and remember more Bogie ground ball hits poked to the right side -- vacated by the shift -- then pulled through the left side. The league is basically offering X the batting crown, and now that the Sox are out of the race he has no reason to drive the ball and try to plate any baserunners.

 

Gotta wonder if the shift ban hurts Xander's batting average next year -- but probably not his attraction to potential suitors during free agency. Chances are, he adjusts and regains his power (if healthy).

 

I don't think the shift on RH'd batters will be any or much different, at all. The 2Bman can still shade far towards 2B under the new rule.

[mvp 78]

So MassLive has an article about going with the tandem of McGuire and Wong. Arbitration 1 guy and a league minimum guy.

 

So we have on the cheap

 

C Wong/McGuire

1B Casas (league minimum)

SS TBD

DH TBD

LF Pham ($6M)

CF Kike ($10M)

RF Verdugo (arb 2, earning $3.5M this year)

As fill ins , we have Hosmer, Arroyo, Refsnyder, Chang, Dalbec, Cordero.

 

If Xander is not resigned then we should have loads of money to "make the team, way better".

 

Yes, but who would you sign? There's not a bunch of guys available on the FA market this offseason. I think having the cheap guys just makes it easier to re-sign Bogey and extend Raffy.

[mvp 78]

True. That's the beauty in advanced stats like WAR. Bogey's D and OBP have made up for the declining power.

 

He's never been a high EV guy.

 

XWOBACON

2018 406

2019 391

2020 386

2021 404

2022 359

 

His 2022 Barrel % is 6.9, which is the lowest since 2017. His weak batted ball % is the lowest of his career. His whiff % on 4 seamers is the highest of his career. His overall whiff % is the highest of his career. His BABIP is inflated. He has been pretty lucky this year. Any team that is going to spend $30M on him is taking a decent risk. I think he's more of a $22.5-$25M guy. I'd offer him 6/150 as I believe he has more value to the Sox as a face of the franchise type player. If someone wants to pay him more, let him go.

[moonslav59]

He's never been a high EV guy.

 

XWOBACON

2018 406

2019 391

2020 386

2021 404

2022 359

 

His 2022 Barrel % is 6.9, which is the lowest since 2017. His weak batted ball % is the lowest of his career. His whiff % on 4 seamers is the highest of his career. His overall whiff % is the highest of his career. His BABIP is inflated. He has been pretty lucky this year. Any team that is going to spend $30M on him is taking a decent risk. I think he's more of a $22.5-$25M guy. I'd offer him 6/150 as I believe he has more value to the Sox as a face of the franchise type player. If someone wants to pay him more, let him go.

 

I agree. Offer him slightly more than Story got, and if he refuses give him the QO and wish him luck.

[mvp 78]

I agree. Offer him slightly more than Story got, and if he refuses give him the QO and wish him luck.

 

The season is basically over. They should be discussing this with him now.

[moonslav59]

The season is basically over. They should be discussing this with him now.

 

Maybe they are (with his agent.)

[notin]

It's quite possible he has lost some power.

 

But he has made up for it in every other way.

 

That's what the advanced stats say, anyway.

 

That’s why I originally said it looks like he’s lost power but I’m not sure it’s a bad thing

[notin]

He's never been a high EV guy.

 

XWOBACON

2018 406

2019 391

2020 386

2021 404

2022 359

 

His 2022 Barrel % is 6.9, which is the lowest since 2017. His weak batted ball % is the lowest of his career. His whiff % on 4 seamers is the highest of his career. His overall whiff % is the highest of his career. His BABIP is inflated. He has been pretty lucky this year. Any team that is going to spend $30M on him is taking a decent risk. I think he's more of a $22.5-$25M guy. I'd offer him 6/150 as I believe he has more value to the Sox as a face of the franchise type player. If someone wants to pay him more, let him go.

 

Finally come around to my valuation of Bogaerts…

[notin]

Prediction

 

The Sox will either trade one of Casas or Hosmer or DFA Hosmer.

 

I just don’t see this team dedicating two 40 man roster spots to 1b and trying to squeeze the protectables on to the same roster before the Rule 5 draft…

[jacksonianmarch]

Prediction

 

The Sox will either trade one of Casas or Hosmer or DFA Hosmer.

 

I just don’t see this team dedicating two 40 man roster spots to 1b and trying to squeeze the protectables on to the same roster before the Rule 5 draft…

 

Hosmer was there to delay Casas service clock. Once the clock didn't matter, Casas came up. Hosmer is likely to be DFA's. He's essentially useless

[moonslav59]

Hosmer was there to delay Casas service clock. Once the clock didn't matter, Casas came up. Hosmer is likely to be DFA's. He's essentially useless

 

He's likely better than Dalbec & Cordero, so my guess is, he stays around, at least until we find out more about Casas.

[mvp 78]

Finally come around to my valuation of Bogaerts…

 

Finally?

[mvp 78]

Prediction

 

The Sox will either trade one of Casas or Hosmer or DFA Hosmer.

 

I just don’t see this team dedicating two 40 man roster spots to 1b and trying to squeeze the protectables on to the same roster before the Rule 5 draft…

 

I think there's more than enough room to keep both.

[moonslav59]

Prediction

 

The Sox will either trade one of Casas or Hosmer or DFA Hosmer.

 

I just don’t see this team dedicating two 40 man roster spots to 1b and trying to squeeze the protectables on to the same roster before the Rule 5 draft…

 

I disagree. I think we keep Hosmer until May 2024, at the earliest.

 

We may trade Dalbec or Casas. (Cordero might be gone, too.)

[notin]

Hosmer was there to delay Casas service clock. Once the clock didn't matter, Casas came up. Hosmer is likely to be DFA's. He's essentially useless

 

His only attribute is someone else pays for him.

 

He doesn’t hit well enough to DH and doesn’t field well enough to push Casas to DH.

 

I suspect a low budget team looking for help at 1b (Milwaukee? Oakland? Pittsburgh?) may take a flier or maybe SD might realize they can’t afford Josh Bell and are paying for Hosmer anyway…

[moonslav59]

His only attribute is someone else pays for him.

 

He doesn’t hit well enough to DH and doesn’t field well enough to push Casas to DH.

 

I suspect a low budget team looking for help at 1b (Milwaukee? Oakland? Pittsburgh?) may take a flier or maybe SD might realize they can’t afford Josh Bell and are paying for Hosmer anyway…

 

We aren't spending a dime on 1B, this winter. We have too many higher needs.

 

Hosmer> Dalbec

Hosmer> Cordero.

 

That's all there is to the choice.

[notin]

I disagree. I think we keep Hosmer until May 2024, at the earliest.

 

We may trade Dalbec or Casas. (Cordero might be gone, too.)

 

Cordero is a DFA candidate. We know this because, despite having an option left, he has been DFAd before.

 

Dalbec could move as well, but the Sox are also trying to increase his versatility (and with some success).

 

Trading Casas was part of the prediction, although IMO the least likely option of the three…

[notin]

We aren't spending a dime on 1B, this winter. We have too many higher needs.

 

Hosmer> Dalbec

Hosmer> Cordero.

 

That's all there is to the choice.

 

If the Sox keep Casas and Dalbec, besides some growing pains, what’s the issue?

[moonslav59]

If the Sox keep Casas and Dalbec, besides some growing pains, what’s the issue?

 

Well, Hosmer is better than Dalbec on O and D and is as cheap as can be. Dalbec likely has more trade value due to his age and upside potential.

 

I actually think all 3 will be on the 40 on opening day.

[Behindenemylines]

1. Bogey decision / Plan B

2. Pitching

3. Pitching

4. OF who could hit for power

5. Pitching

6. Finally, more pitching

[moonslav59]

1. Bogey decision / Plan B

2. Pitching

3. Pitching

4. OF who could hit for power

5. Pitching

6. Finally, more pitching

 

Can't argue with this.