A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

One pitch pitcher. Probably trade bait though. However, it gives the Sox little leverage if he's already been DFA'd.

 

He does have some promising secondary pitches, but nothing that seems ML level, yet.

 

Ort does have a slider, but I'm not sure it will be a secondary pitch that can get ML'er out, either.

[mvp 78]

He does have some promising secondary pitches, but nothing that seems ML level, yet.

 

Ort does have a slider, but I'm not sure it will be a secondary pitch that can get ML'er out, either.

 

His secondary pitches aren't even MiLB level. His only pitch is his heater. That's good enough at lower levels. It won't make the MLB jump. The whiff rate on German's vaunted velo was just 16%. The whiff rate on his slider was a measley 9%. He just couldn't miss any bats. It's not that he simply couldn't put away a guy. He wasn't getting close. Maybe just a small sample size, but I'm not so sure. There's just no movement to his slider. That's what statcast says anyway. Could he still develop it? Maybe.

 

Is there a better return in a trade for German than just DFA'ing Ort? Probably. That's probably the consideration. However, I think there's a good chance that German just isn't as good as some of you projected.

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty soon he'll be the new King of TalkSox per post count thanks to it.

 

moon will have to settle for being the Count of TalkSox.

[moonslav59]

What is German's second pitch? It's not 1987. Lots of guys through hard now. You need other pitches to get quality hitters out too.

 

Socxprospects.com says...

 

Fastball: 95-97 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Control has improved and now grades as average. Command is a work in progress, but is creeping towards fringe-average. Velocity has increased in pro ball. Sat in the low-to-mid-90s as a starter, but velocity jumped considerably after moving to the bullpen. Potential plus offering if command continues to improve like it did in 2022, but for now plays below that.

 

Split-Finger Fastball: 84-86 mph. Shows solid feel for the offering and the confidence to throw it both in and out of the zone. Especially effective against left-handed hitters. Has improved since he got into pro ball and provides a nice complement to his fastball. Still needs improved consistency. Potential average offering.

 

Slider: 83-86 mph. Will vary shape and add or subtract velocity from the pitch. Some have a more vertical shape, while others are more horizontal. Primary out-pitch against right-handed hitters, but has also shown the ability to bury it down-and-in to left-handed hitters. Will flash similar potential to his splitter, but does not have the same consistency. Potential average offering.

 

It also says this in the summary...

 

Lacks a plus secondary pitch right now. Has shown bat-missing ability with both splitter and slider against minor league competition, but there are questions about how they will translate against MLB competition due to a lack of consistency and command. If one of his secondaries takes a step forward along with his command, has a better chance to carve out a full-time role in a major league bullpen.

[moonslav59]

They aren't slipping German through waivers. Not at this point in the offseason anyway.

 

He's going to be traded- no doubt.

[moonslav59]

moon will have to settle for being the Count of TalkSox.

 

Only if 700 is the countess.

 

[mvp 78]

Socxprospects.com says...

 

Fastball: 95-97 mph. Tops out at 99 mph. Control has improved and now grades as average. Command is a work in progress, but is creeping towards fringe-average. Velocity has increased in pro ball. Sat in the low-to-mid-90s as a starter, but velocity jumped considerably after moving to the bullpen. Potential plus offering if command continues to improve like it did in 2022, but for now plays below that.

 

Split-Finger Fastball: 84-86 mph. Shows solid feel for the offering and the confidence to throw it both in and out of the zone. Especially effective against left-handed hitters. Has improved since he got into pro ball and provides a nice complement to his fastball. Still needs improved consistency. Potential average offering.

 

Slider: 83-86 mph. Will vary shape and add or subtract velocity from the pitch. Some have a more vertical shape, while others are more horizontal. Primary out-pitch against right-handed hitters, but has also shown the ability to bury it down-and-in to left-handed hitters. Will flash similar potential to his splitter, but does not have the same consistency. Potential average offering.

 

It also says this in the summary...

 

Lacks a plus secondary pitch right now. Has shown bat-missing ability with both splitter and slider against minor league competition, but there are questions about how they will translate against MLB competition due to a lack of consistency and command. If one of his secondaries takes a step forward along with his command, has a better chance to carve out a full-time role in a major league bullpen.

 

Let me highlight the important part that hasn't remotely happened so far.

[mvp 78]

Only if 700 is the countess.

 

 

Is this an indecent proposal towards the King? Gross.

[mvp 78]

When TalkSox says your pitch is a "potential average offering," but then goes on to say it has a long way to go to get hitters out that means it's a well below average pitch currently. Like I said, the movement shown on Statcast and the whiff %'s are not good for the time he spent in MLB. Maybe he can be better going forward? I think he was a little overrated on here.

[moonslav59]

Let me highlight the important part that hasn't remotely happened so far.

 

I saw that but think it kind of contradicts what it says earlier about his slit finger fastball and slider, although it does say his slider only has the "potential" of being "average." (Average is not bad, though.)

[moonslav59]

When TalkSox says your pitch is a "potential average offering," but then goes on to say it has a long way to go to get hitters out that means it's a well below average pitch currently. Like I said, the movement shown on Statcast and the whiff %'s are not good for the time he spent in MLB. Maybe he can be better going forward? I think he was a little overrated on here.

 

Agreed.

 

So, basically, he only reached the .492 OPS against with just fastballs, last season?

 

(I'm not doubting that is possible, but that must be some fastball!)

[moonslav59]

Is this an indecent proposal towards the King? Gross.

 

Not my countess.

 

[Old Red]

When TalkSox says your pitch is a "potential average offering," but then goes on to say it has a long way to go to get hitters out that means it's a well below average pitch currently. Like I said, the movement shown on Statcast and the whiff %'s are not good for the time he spent in MLB. Maybe he can be better going forward? I think he was a little overrated on here.

 

Overrated on here? Say it ain’t so. Seabold, Stinkin Winkin are a couple of others.

[mvp 78]

I saw that but think it kind of contradicts what it says earlier about his slit finger fastball and slider, although it does say his slider only has the "potential" of being "average." (Average is not bad, though.)

 

It has the potential to get there and isn't there right now. We saw what happened when he appeared in BOS at the end of the season.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

So, basically, he only reached the .492 OPS against with just fastballs, last season?

 

(I'm not doubting that is possible, but that must be some fastball!)

 

No, his below average secondary pitches can also work against MiLB hitters. TalkSox has also said a lot recently that the jump from AAA to MLB is wider than it's ever been since 2020. For whatever reason, the gap in talent is just huge now. What works in AAA, doesn't always play in MLB. As an example, we've seen that in our system with Jarren Duran. He hits in WOO and then looks like a deer in headlights in BOS.

[moonslav59]

No, his below average secondary pitches can also work against MiLB hitters. TalkSox has also said a lot recently that the jump from AAA to MLB is wider than it's ever been since 2020. For whatever reason, the gap in talent is just huge now. What works in AAA, doesn't always play in MLB. As an example, we've seen that in our system with Jarren Duran. He hits in WOO and then looks like a deer in headlights in BOS.

 

Not all players who do well in AAA bomb in MLB, in fact some who have been so-so in AAA do pretty well in MLB.

 

It's hard to know which one each player will be.

 

Houck:

4.24 in A+

4.25 in AA

4.11 in AAA

3.02 in MLB

[mvp 78]

Overrated on here? Say it ain’t so. Seabold, Stinkin Winkin are a couple of others.

 

I don't think many people overrated Winckowski. He's a backend starter at best, but probably a bullpen arm. If he went from being a 5 pitch pitcher to a 3 pitch pitcher in short outings, he'd probably be more successful.

 

Seabold was a really good prospect, but his best pitch died on the vine after his injury. The pitch just never came back. He's a AAAA guy unless that changeup comes back. I said for a while that his numbers looked good in AAA, but he had no business pitching for BOS.

[notin]

It has the potential to get there and isn't there right now. We saw what happened when he appeared in BOS at the end of the season.

 

But also only 4IP.

 

At some point, the untried younger pitchers with track records of minor league success should be considered over players with track records full major league question marks like Dalbec or Duran…

[mvp 78]

Winckowski as a reliever in 2022 SSS alert:

 

2.11 FIP

13.3% k-bb

545 BABIP

63.6% GB

 

I don't think he's a late inning arm, but he could end up being a decent middle reliever or bulk innings guy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

TalkSox has also said a lot recently that the jump from AAA to MLB is wider than it's ever been since 2020. For whatever reason, the gap in talent is just huge now. What works in AAA, doesn't always play in MLB.

 

Good point. One thing I remember from the backs of Red Sox baseball cards as a kid: just about every regular led some minor league level as a batting champ or in another "important" stat that led to promotion. Of course, there were only 20 MLB teams back then, instead of 30... maybe talent has been diluted just a bit?

[mvp 78]

But also only 4IP.

 

At some point, the untried younger pitchers with track records of minor league success should be considered over players with track records full major league question marks like Dalbec or Duran…

 

Dalbec and Duran are on the other side of the ball. You need to fill the entire 40 man roster, not just the pitching side of it.

 

A pitch is a pitch. The Sox can see if a pitch has movement or not. Should we trust their judgement on the progress of German off the field in practice?

 

1. German has trade value. Ort does not.

2. German's stuff probably isn't advanced enough to sit on the 40 man for another year unless he can be called upon if they really want to compete.

[notin]

Dalbec and Duran are on the other side of the ball. You need to fill the entire 40 man roster, not just the pitching side of it.

 

A pitch is a pitch. The Sox can see if a pitch has movement or not. Should we trust their judgement on the progress of German off the field in practice?

 

1. German has trade value. Ort does not.

2. German's stuff probably isn't advanced enough to sit on the 40 man for another year unless he can be called upon if they really want to compete.

 

On BTV, Dalbec has as much value as German and Duran has significantly more.

 

While the Sox do need an entire 40 man roster, it still needs to be pitcher-heavy, especially early on.

 

Even you have called Duran DFA material. If he is not worthy of a 40 man spot, does it matter who replaces him as long as that player is worthy?

[mvp 78]

Not all players who do well in AAA bomb in MLB, in fact some who have been so-so in AAA do pretty well in MLB.

 

It's hard to know which one each player will be.

 

Houck:

4.24 in A+

4.25 in AA

4.11 in AAA

3.02 in MLB

 

Why are you using Houck's 2021 AAA numbers? They seem irrelevant. He had a 3.24 ERA in 2019 in AAA. The issue there was that it was mostly out of the pen.

 

Do you remember why he had previous struggles and why he "suddenly" improved in MLB? When he first got into the organization, they messed with his delivery multiple times instead of just letting him throw the way he always had. Through 2019, he still struggled get LHB out. As an RP, it's not a big deal, but they still hoped he could at least be a spot starter. Thanks to COVID, they left Houck at the Alternate Training Site and intentionally stacked LHB lineups against him to get him to work through it and learn to be a better pitcher. Because of that, he had to learn a splitter. Without that experience, he may not be the MLB pitcher he is today.

[notin]

Dalbec and Duran are on the other side of the ball. You need to fill the entire 40 man roster, not just the pitching side of it.

 

A pitch is a pitch. The Sox can see if a pitch has movement or not. Should we trust their judgement on the progress of German off the field in practice?

 

1. German has trade value. Ort does not.

2. German's stuff probably isn't advanced enough to sit on the 40 man for another year unless he can be called upon if they really want to compete.

 

And if German is truly not worthy of a 40 man roster spot, it’s safe to assume that he was not worthy of one in December when he was protected over Thad Ward…

[mvp 78]

On BTV, Dalbec has as much value as German and Duran has significantly more.

 

While the Sox do need an entire 40 man roster, it still needs to be pitcher-heavy, especially early on.

 

Even you have called Duran DFA material. If he is not worthy of a 40 man spot, does it matter who replaces him as long as that player is worthy?

 

He is DFA material if they are replacing him with OF depth. Greg Allen? Tapia? Not for a pitcher IMO.

 

I think Dalbec has a bench role possibly, but also could be traded. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

Yes, Ort and Brasier get a lot of hate as they seemingly should have been the first out of the door. I would have DFA'd Ort a long time ago. I just don't think moving on from German is a big deal. With Brasier, I at least understand why they believe his low bb% and late season uptick could show future value for this season. I don't really believe it, but I understand their reasoning.

 

Other pitchers I could see DFA'd or traded for minimal return:

 

Murphy

Mills

[mvp 78]

And if German is truly not worthy of a 40 man roster spot, it’s safe to assume that he was not worthy of one in December when he was protected over Thad Ward…

 

And I guess that's how little they thought of Thaddeus Ward. Still one of the weirdest decisions they have made. At least trade the guy...

[notin]

He is DFA material if they are replacing him with OF depth. Greg Allen? Tapia? Not for a pitcher IMO.

 

I think Dalbec has a bench role possibly, but also could be traded. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

Yes, Ort and Brasier get a lot of hate as they seemingly should have been the first out of the door. I would have DFA'd Ort a long time ago. I just don't think moving on from German is a big deal. With Brasier, I at least understand why they believe his low bb% and late season uptick could show future value for this season. I don't really believe it, but I understand their reasoning.

 

Other pitchers I could see DFA'd or traded for minimal return:

 

Murphy

Mills

 

The Sox also have a freebie add to the 40 man roster once Story goes on the 60 day IL. Candidates include Tapia, Allen, Crook, Diaz and Alfaro. At least that’s who I think the candidates are…

[notin]

He is DFA material if they are replacing him with OF depth. Greg Allen? Tapia? Not for a pitcher IMO.

 

I think Dalbec has a bench role possibly, but also could be traded. I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

Yes, Ort and Brasier get a lot of hate as they seemingly should have been the first out of the door. I would have DFA'd Ort a long time ago. I just don't think moving on from German is a big deal. With Brasier, I at least understand why they believe his low bb% and late season uptick could show future value for this season. I don't really believe it, but I understand their reasoning.

 

Other pitchers I could see DFA'd or traded for minimal return:

 

Murphy

Mills

 

And Bloom must have serious faith in former Tampa draftee Mills since he traded a non-40 man player to get him. Granted, he only had to DFA Hosmer to squeeze him onto the roster…

[moonslav59]

Why are you using Houck's 2021 AAA numbers? They seem irrelevant. He had a 3.24 ERA in 2019 in AAA. The issue there was that it was mostly out of the pen.

 

 

I used his career numbers in AAA not 2021.

 

Reason: to make a point out of how some players do better than they did in AAA. Many do worse.

[moonslav59]

Do you remember why he had previous struggles and why he "suddenly" improved in MLB? When he first got into the organization, they messed with his delivery multiple times instead of just letting him throw the way he always had. Through 2019, he still struggled get LHB out. As an RP, it's not a big deal, but they still hoped he could at least be a spot starter. Thanks to COVID, they left Houck at the Alternate Training Site and intentionally stacked LHB lineups against him to get him to work through it and learn to be a better pitcher. Because of that, he had to learn a splitter. Without that experience, he may not be the MLB pitcher he is today.

 

Do you remember how Duran messed with his approach?