A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

No one is revising history, just commenting on Bloom's explanation of why he didn't bet big on Mookie.

 

I'm just not buying the excuse that the time is now right to build around Raffy but not Betts, who is still great and better than Devers, and just might be for the next half decade.

 

And what fans consider it a waste to watch their favorite players star for their team in any year? Or would rather have a top pick four levels down still trying to someday make the majors? There may even be some Yankee fans who don't think Judge's '22 season was a waste...

 

There are posters who blame Bloom for not building up the roster- like it was his choice to slash $60M from the year 1 budget and have next to nothing from the farm in a 5 year stretch. Had we kept Betts, even at the Dodger amount (doubtful) and Price, we not only could not have added players around them, we'd have had to subtract players from what we had- maybe Bogey, Nate, or Sale or 2 of the 3.

 

Now, it is different. We have some promising farm help here, already and expected 10+ more, this year and next. We have enough budget space to add Yoshida, Jansen, Martin, Turner and Duvall "around Devers."

 

I get your point about Betts being here now, but we'd have basically wasted 3 years paying Betts to get to this year, and now he's over 30- still very good but the next 5 years don't look the same as the 5 years starting from 2020 on Betts.

 

The "Time is now" three years ago was light years different from now.

[Bellhorn04]

I can't even express how much better I feel about the Red Sox after the Devers extension. It would have been horrible if they lost him too.

[moonslav59]

So were you opposed to extending any of Betts, Bogaerts or Raffy?

 

I'd have kept Betts, but seeing what out budget was set at over the past 3 years makes me see it differently.

 

I'm not sure keeping Betts would have allowed us to keep Devers. Of the 3, I'd keep Betts, then Devers, then Bogey. No way we keep all 3.

 

If we kept Betts and Devers and the same budget, we'd be without Kluber, Martin and Jansen going into 2023.

[notin]

Raffy didn't look so good playing on a bad hammy in the second half of '22.

 

Did Betts look better in 2021?

 

He missed more games and was very far from being himself…

[Bellhorn04]

Did Betts look better in 2021?

 

He missed more games and was very far from being himself…

 

True, but he bounced back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did Betts look better in 2021?

 

He missed more games and was very far from being himself…

 

Stats say he did: 6.4 WAR, 35 HRs, led the league in runs scored, Gold Glove, 5th in MVP.

 

Isn't that the kind of guy you build a team around?

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Raffy and am glad he'll be here for the next decade (and hope I am, too, to watch him). I just couldn't stomach Bloom defending the Mookie trade by saying it freed up "resources to sign Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards."

 

I realize Chaim was scrambling on stage, but it's notable the last three names, whether you like them or not, were all one-and-done in Boston. Not the kind of players diehard baseball fans look forward to rooting for...

[moonslav59]

Betts is the clear better player today.

 

Betts is signed through 2032. Devers through 2033. Both are owed roughly $300mill between now and then (Devers is owed more due to the extra year.)

 

Which one do you think will be better between now and the end of the deal?

 

My guess is Betts will be better for the next 2-3 years- maybe 4, then the age differential kicks into Devers' favor. Body types may be a big factor, but sometimes big guys age pretty well, as in Papi.

 

OPS+ (Granted, Betts blows Devers away on D)

Betts

186 age 25 w BOS

134 at 26 BOS

147 at 27 LAD

126 at 28 LAD

136 at 29 LAD

? 30

? 31

? 32

? 33

? 34

? 35

? 36

? 37

? 38

? 39 (2032)

 

Devers

141 at age 25

? at 26 (2023)

? 27 (extension begins)

? 28

? 29

? 30

? 31

? 32

? 33

? 34

? 35

? 36 (2033)

 

Even though Devers is under control one year beyond Betts, he'll be just 36 in his last season. That's what Betts will be with 3 more years to go in his deal.

 

I hope we are all around to discuss which deal was better.

 

[notin]

Stats say he did: 6.4 WAR, 35 HRs, led the league in runs scored, Gold Glove, 5th in MVP.

 

Isn't that the kind of guy you build a team around?

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Raffy and am glad he'll be here for the next decade (and hope I am, too, to watch him). I just couldn't stomach Bloom defending the Mookie trade by saying it freed up "resources to sign Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards."

 

I realize Chaim was scrambling on stage, but it's notable the last three names, whether you like them or not, were all one-and-done in Boston. Not the kind of players diehard baseball fans look forward to rooting for...

 

You’re either responding to the wrong post or supporting your point with the wrong year from Mookie. In 2021, Betts posted 3.8fWAR/4.2bWAR. In 2022, he got back up over 6 WAR on both scales…

Edited January 29, 2023 by notin

[notin]

True, but he bounced back.

 

He did. Probably because he was no longer injured.

 

But I’m not sure why Devers is suddenly “more susceptible to injury” beyond Recency Effect. Betts missed more time in 2021 than Devers did in 2021 and 2022 combined, and his play suffered for it…

[moonslav59]

Stats say he did: 6.4 WAR, 35 HRs, led the league in runs scored, Gold Glove, 5th in MVP.

 

Isn't that the kind of guy you build a team around?

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Raffy and am glad he'll be here for the next decade (and hope I am, too, to watch him). I just couldn't stomach Bloom defending the Mookie trade by saying it freed up "resources to sign Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards."

 

I realize Chaim was scrambling on stage, but it's notable the last three names, whether you like them or not, were all one-and-done in Boston. Not the kind of players diehard baseball fans look forward to rooting for...

 

I wish we did build around Betts, even if it meant trading Bogey or Sale or Nate, assuming we could have dumped 1/2 Price with one or two of them.

 

We'd have still not won for the last 3 years with the budget we had and minus Bogey or Nate.

 

We'd be looking somewhat better off, this year, but maybe we'd be seeing Devers off, next year.

 

I think I'd prefer to build around 27-36 year old Devers than a 30-39 year old Betts, but it's not a clear no-brainer choice, for sure.

[Old Red]

Stats say he did: 6.4 WAR, 35 HRs, led the league in runs scored, Gold Glove, 5th in MVP.

 

Isn't that the kind of guy you build a team around?

 

Don't get me wrong, I love Raffy and am glad he'll be here for the next decade (and hope I am, too, to watch him). I just couldn't stomach Bloom defending the Mookie trade by saying it freed up "resources to sign Kike, Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards."

 

I realize Chaim was scrambling on stage, but it's notable the last three names, whether you like them or not, were all one-and-done in Boston. Not the kind of players diehard baseball fans look forward to rooting for...

Bloom was talking out his ass, and looking like an ass in doing it trying to shout down the boo birds. I believe the reason that Raffy was resigned out of the three was because he was the last one standing. At least two of the three could have, and should have been resigned, and would have if Bloom hadn’t botched the Bogey contract so bad. Some are putting all their chips on the suspects who have hype, and promise, but at this point that’s all that is, and that includes Bello, Casas, and Mayer, and if they don’t turn out as good as the hype the Red Sox will be set back for years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You’re either responding to the wrong post or supporting your point with the wrong year from Mookie. In 2021, Betts posted 3.8fWAR/4.2bWAR. In 2022, he got back up over 6 WAR on both scales…

 

My bad -- but in '21, Betts' 4.2 WAR was still better than Devers' 3.5. Granted, Raffy was swinging -- and dealing -- with one good arm down the stretch. Maybe that's the point, though -- Raffy is already banged up a lot more at a younger age.

 

I'd still rather have either instead of Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards.

[moonslav59]

Bloom was talking out his ass, and looking like an ass in doing it trying to shout down the boo birds. I believe the reason that Raffy was resigned out of the three was because he was the last one standing. At least two of the three could have, and should have been resigned, and would have if Bloom hadn’t botched the Bogey contract so bad. Some are putting all their chips on the suspects who have hype, and promise, but at this point that’s all that is, and that includes Bello, Casas, and Mayer, and if they don’t turn out as good as the hype the Red Sox will be set back for years.

 

Had we kept Betts, Bogey and Devers, we'd have close to no free agents added to the roster around them and would still have to put all our faith into "the suspects," as you like to call them.

 

We might have had a better record in 2020 and no Mayer, too.

[notin]

My bad -- but in '21, Betts' 4.2 WAR was still better than Devers' 3.5. Granted, Raffy was swinging -- and dealing -- with one good arm down the stretch. Maybe that's the point, though -- Raffy is already banged up a lot more at a younger age.

 

I'd still rather have either instead of Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards.

 

I do it think the choice was ever Betts vs. Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards. The Sox are always going to have a few short term journeymen filling roster spots…

[notin]

Bloom was talking out his ass, and looking like an ass in doing it trying to shout down the boo birds. I believe the reason that Raffy was resigned out of the three was because he was the last one standing. At least two of the three could have, and should have been resigned, and would have if Bloom hadn’t botched the Bogey contract so bad. Some are putting all their chips on the suspects who have hype, and promise, but at this point that’s all that is, and that includes Bello, Casas, and Mayer, and if they don’t turn out as good as the hype the Red Sox will be set back for years.

 

If you’re going to sign two of the three, you think Betts should be the one to go?

 

If so, that’s on abloom predecessor, who had 4 years to make it happen…

[Old Red]

Had we kept Betts, Bogey and Devers, we'd have close to no free agents added to the roster around them and would still have to put all our faith into "the suspects," as you like to call them.

 

We might have had a better record in 2020 and no Mayer, too.

 

I’ll go with the known Super Stars instead of a bunch of hyped suspects who may never turnout as good as they’re hyped, and like I said earlier if that happens the Red Sox will get set back for years to come.

[Old Red]

If you’re going to sign two of the three, you think Betts should be the one to go?

 

If so, that’s on abloom predecessor, who had 4 years to make it happen…

 

Ok so now we agree that Both DD, and Bloom BOTCHED things up, but at least DD had 4 winning seasons, and a WS championship.

[moonslav59]

I do NOT it think the choice was ever Betts vs. Renfroe, Ottavino and Richards. The Sox are always going to have a few short term journeymen filling roster spots…

 

Those 3 cost about $20M. Betts + half price was close to $45M.

[moonslav59]

I’ll go with the known Super Stars instead of a bunch of hyped suspects who may never turnout as good as they’re hyped, and like I said earlier if that happens the Red Sox will get set back for years to come.

 

Again, you respond to a point I did not make.

 

Had we kept all 3, we'd have no money for players to sign as FAs to support them.

 

We'd still have to rely on farm help to create a winning team... actually, even more so.

[moonslav59]

If you’re going to sign two of the three, you think Betts should be the one to go?

 

If so, that’s on abloom predecessor, who had 4 years to make it happen…

 

Had we kept 2 of the three, we have to acknowledge, someone else goes or would not have been signed.

 

Of course, in hindsight, we could pick and choose only the bad signings and maybe come close to robbing Peter to pay Paul, but we'd still be left with gaping holes in the roster with no money to fill them and no farm infusions, either.

 

Betts, Bogey and Devers plus a bunch of guys like Brice, Weber, Marwin, Dalbec, Darwin, Chavis ...

 

There is a good chance the guys who would have taken the slots filled by Richards, Perez I & II, Ottavino and others would have done worse, since they'd all be min wage guys.

[moonslav59]

Ok so now we agree that Both DD, and Bloom BOTCHED things up, but at least DD had 4 winning seasons, and a WS championship.

 

how you interpret other people's posts never ceases to amaze me.

[Old Red]

how you interpret other people's posts never ceases to amaze me.

 

Facts are that DD had a winning record all 4 years, and a WS championship. I’m willing to concede that DD botched the Mookie negotiations, and I still state Bloom BOTCHED the Bogey negotiations, so call it what you want.

[Old Red]

Again, you respond to a point I did not make.

 

Had we kept all 3, we'd have no money for players to sign as FAs to support them.

 

We'd still have to rely on farm help to create a winning team... actually, even more so.

 

I said at least 2 of the three could have, and should have been retained, and all three could have been retained if JH wanted to, and still could have signed other players too. What you won’t admit is that the Red Sox will be set back for years if all your eggs in a basket hyped suspects don’t pan out.

[moonslav59]

Facts are that DD had a winning record all 4 years, and a WS championship. I’m willing to concede that DD botched the Mookie negotiations, and I still state Bloom BOTCHED the Bogey negotiations, so call it what you want.

 

You also said notin agrees. That was what I was addressing, but missin g the point is your M.O.

 

Only a strawman is disagreeing on us having a winning record for 4 years, but continue battling against it.

[moonslav59]

I said at least 2 of the three could have, and should have been retained, and all three could have been retained if JH wanted to, and still could have signed other players too. What you won’t admit is that the Red Sox will be set back for years if all your eggs in a basket hyped suspects don’t pan out.

 

The argument that JH could have should have is moot. He didn't and wouldn't have upped the budget had he kept 2 or 3.

 

Nobody argues we would not have been better had we kept 2 or 3 and greatly increased our budget over the last 3 years. NOBODY.

 

Newsflash: we'd have been better than we have been the last 3 years with just Devers and $60M more on the budget, year one, $40M more year 2 and $20M more year 3.

 

Of course I admit that this set the Sox b ack for years. That's been my point all along- that and the fact our farm has given us next to nothing since devers in 2017.

 

When the budget is cut, the only hope is in the farm and finding gems for low costs.

 

Had JH agreed to spend wildly over the last 3 years, we would not have sucked.

 

BTW, yes, I agree, if the nprospec ts don't pan out, we will suck for a few more years. Why you think I won't admit this is puzzling. It's a no-brainer.

 

I happen to choose to be optimistic about our farm. You choose to call them "suspects"not "prospects." This is not the same as me thinking it is a certainty they lead us out of this doom and gloom we've seen in 2 of the last 3 years.

 

Nuance is something you don't understand.

[moonslav59]

Facts are that DD had a winning record all 4 years, and a WS championship. I’m willing to concede that DD botched the Mookie negotiations, and I still state Bloom BOTCHED the Bogey negotiations, so call it what you want.

 

I've never said Bloom did not "botch" the Bogey negotiations. I'd still like to know the amount and years Bogey would have accepted 2 years ago, 1 year ago and a few months ago. I'd also like to know, if he might have accepted more, and exactly how much more, back when DD extended him but without the opt out. Until I know those numbers, it might not matter that Bloom botched the negotiations, if the number was never going to be accepted by JH & Co. I am fully aware, it might very easily have mattered, too.

 

I wish we had all 3, today, but only if what I see as an impossible wish accompanied this one: that JH would have spent way, way, way more than he did over the last 3 years and would continue to do so, despite the penalties to drafts that would come with it.

 

This whole "we could have kept 2 or 3, if JH would have..." rings hollow to me. It's a valid thing to discuss, but it should not be tied to judging DD and Bloom. DD saw what happened when the money was cut off, too. He wasn't too happy about the winter before 2019 and the deadline of 2019. I'm sure he would not have liked JH telling him to cut $60M off the 2019 budget going into 2020, either.

 

We can wish history had been different, but tying that wish to why Bloom has not been successful seems unfair, to me.

[notin]

Those 3 cost about $20M. Betts + half price was close to $45M.

 

Years matter…

[notin]

Facts are that DD had a winning record all 4 years, and a WS championship. I’m willing to concede that DD botched the Mookie negotiations, and I still state Bloom BOTCHED the Bogey negotiations, so call it what you want.

 

I don’t think he botched them at all. Bloom just preferred Story over Bogaerts. I don’t, but I also don’t think it’s a ridiculous substitute.

 

After Bloom got his shortstop, he was probably fine with Bogaerts if X met his price. But if X didn’t, he had already moved on…

[Nick]

I don’t think he botched them at all. Bloom just preferred Story over Bogaerts. I don’t, but I also don’t think it’s a ridiculous substitute.

 

After Bloom got his shortstop, he was probably fine with Bogaerts if X met his price. But if X didn’t, he had already moved on…

 

What notin just said!!!!

[moonslav59]

In my opinion, our 40 man roster depth and farm promise has come a long way since 2019-2020. It remains to be seen, if it will be a difference maker, but we went from having maybe 20 (or more) weak spots on our 40 in 2020 to maybe 3-5, now.

 

Personally, I would not have counted Barnes in that bottom 3-5, but clearly Bloom & Co. value some players much differently than I and others on this site.

 

As of now, I'd say these are our weakest 5 slots- in order from weakest to less weak:

 

1. Ort (2 options remaining)

2. Brasier (no options)

3. Hamilton (3)

4. Duran (2)

5. Abreu (3)

Contenders: Paxton (0), Mondesi (0), Mills (1) and Wink (2)

 

Note: this is not a projected DFA list.

 

One could say the list is 9 long and not much of an improvement, but I'd disagree.

 

I'm also optimistic about some players on the farm that may be added to the 40, this year or in 2024:

1. Mayer (Rule 5 after '25, but will be added earlier)

5. Yorke (Rule 5 after '24)

14. Lugo (Rule 5 after '23)

20. Kavadas (Rule 5 after '24)

23. Drohan (Rule 5 after '23)

29. Uberstine (Rule 5 after '24)

 

Other Rule 5's after 2023, besides Lugo & Drohan that might be close to protecting. perhaps depending on what they do in 2023 on the farm:

10. Luis Perales (projected 2026 arrival)

11. Eddison Paulino (projected '25 arrival)

12. Wikelman Gonzalez (projected '25 arrival)

16. Brainer Bonaci ('25)

33. Christian Koss

37. Ryan Fernandez

40. Gilberto Jimenez

41. Stephen Scott

44. Juan Encarnacion