A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Agreed, and that would likely mean they were going "bananas."

 

There's a chance we see Lugo, Valdez, Abreu, Mata, Rafaela and Mayer all make their MLB debuts this season. Probably not all for BOS.

[mvp 78]

On paper I believe last year’s lineup was better to start the season. The BP looks to be improved, and the starting rotation has just as many questions as last years. How it works out is another story, and TBD.

 

On paper, yes. However, JD isn't what he once was. I think Vaz is overrated. Having a real SS and a healthy Story makes a big difference though. A lot of question marks right now.

[notin]

There's a chance we see Lugo, Valdez, Abreu, Mata, Rafaela and Mayer all make their MLB debuts this season. Probably not all for BOS.

 

MLB debuts this year? I’d say Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, Rafaela and maybe Feltman.

 

That list is very often pitcher-heavy…

[oldtimer]

I know many don't believe it, but we are better than last year, on paper, and likely a lot better.

 

We got worse at SS and now 2B with the Story surgery, but when compared to the 2022 team, we look better or even at just about every other slot on the 26 and maybe even the 40. We even have prospects not on the 40 that may be added during the season that look better than a few players on last year's 40.

 

This is a pretty good line-up:

 

1. L Yoshida LF

2. R Kike SS

3. L Devers 3B

4. R Turner DH

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Duvall CF

7. L Dugo RF

8. R Arroyo 2B (Maybe we add Andrus, Iggy, Harrison or trade for Wendle or the like.)

9. L McGuire

Bench: R Wong C, R Refsnyder OF, R Dalbec 1B, L Duran, EValdez or Tapia

 

The rotation may not match last year's level, but a bounce back from Sale or Paxton may be all we need to improve:

1. Sale

2. Kluber

3. Whitlock

4. Bello

5. Pivetta

6. Paxton (Houck)

 

Our pen is much better, even without Whitlock:

Closer: Jansen

RP2: Martin

RP3: Houck

RP4: Schreiber

RP5: Barnes

RP6: Rodriguez

RP7: Taylor

RP8: Brasier

 

The ML Ready farm depth is better than last year.

 

C: Alfaro, Hamilton, RHern, Scott

IF: Mayer, Rafaela, EValdez, Hamilton, Goodrum, Koss (weak area)

OF: Rafaela, Tapia, Duran, Allen, Crook, Abreu

SP: Mata, Walter, Santos, Drohan

SP/RP: Crawford, Winckowski, Murphy

RP: Kelly, German, Ort

 

 

As you had pointed out earlier, if my memory is correct, our lineup is full of question marks going into the season.

 

Yoshida and Casas are new and unproven in MLBB.

Turner and Duvall are older and while pros, may not be able to get even 1/2 of a season of healthy ball

Kike at SS is an experiment and he is coming off an injury

Arroyo is even more injury prone

 

I'd still like us to pick up a serviceable SS on a 1 year contract and would gladly trade Dalbec and/or Duran for one. Mayer isn't likely to make the 40 man until 2024

 

As you point out, our starting rotation is also a question mark.l

 

At least recent additions have been in the right direction and we do have some reinforcements in the wings.

[moonslav59]

On paper I believe last year’s lineup was better to start the season. The BP looks to be improved, and the starting rotation has just as many questions as last years. How it works out is another story, and TBD.

 

It's certainly a defendable position. You are not alone. IMO, when people think of us losing Bogey & JD, they are remembering more the accomplishments from 2018 and 2019 more than 2021 and 2022.

 

Last year's opening day line-up was: (All players with 200+ PAs are listed)

 

1. Kike .629

2. Devers .879

3. Bogey .833

4. JD .790

5. Verdugo .732 (Pham .672)

6. Story .737 (Arroyo .736)

7. Dalbec .652 (Cordero .697)

8. JBJ .578 (Duran .645)

9. Vaz .759 (Plawecki .574)

 

Lost by ranking in most PAs in 2022:

 

2. Bogey .833 in 631 PAs

4. JD M .790 in 596

6. Story .737 in 396

(This is over 1600 PAs and a major hit to the offense.)

 

But also...

7. Dalbec .652 in 353

8. Vaz .759 in 318

10. JBJ .578 in 290

11. Cordero .697 in 275

12. Pham .672 in 235

15. Plawecki .574 in 175

19. Hosmer .631 in 50

.322 from Sanchez in 44, .427 from Downs in 41, .596 from Chang in 26 and .000 fro Shaw + Arauz in 31 combined PAs

This list has more PAs than the list above of the 3 players lost.

 

Additions:

.788 Turner in 532 (.940 in last 289 PAs)

???? Yoshida

More from...

.766 Casas

.677 McGuire (.877 w Sox)

.651 Wong (career)

Kike & Arroyo?

 

It's certainly not a slam dunk to say we should be better, and maybe my hopes for Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Kike, Arroyo and others are misplaced, but I'm still thinking 2023 line-up will be better than 2022. You went on and on about us not replacing Renfroe's 98 RBIs from 2021, but how hard should it be to replace Bogey's 73, Story's 66 and JD's 62? And those are the big 3.

 

Turner had 81. Casas projected to 80. That means Yoshida just needs 40.

[Old Red]

It's certainly a defendable position. You are not alone. IMO, when people think of us losing Bogey & JD, they are remembering more the accomplishments from 2018 and 2019 more than 2021 and 2022.

 

Last year's opening day line-up was: (All players with 200+ PAs are listed)

 

1. Kike .629

2. Devers .879

3. Bogey .833

4. JD .790

5. Verdugo .732 (Pham .672)

6. Story .737 (Arroyo .736)

7. Dalbec .652 (Cordero .697)

8. JBJ .578 (Duran .645)

9. Vaz .759 (Plawecki .574)

 

Lost by ranking in most PAs in 2022:

 

2. Bogey .833 in 631 PAs

4. JD M .790 in 596

6. Story .737 in 396

(This is over 1600 PAs and a major hit to the offense.)

 

But also...

7. Dalbec .652 in 353

8. Vaz .759 in 318

10. JBJ .578 in 290

11. Cordero .697 in 275

12. Pham .672 in 235

15. Plawecki .574 in 175

19. Hosmer .631 in 50

.322 from Sanchez in 44, .427 from Downs in 41, .596 from Chang in 26 and .000 fro Shaw + Arauz in 31 combined PAs

This list has more PAs than the list above of the 3 players lost.

 

Additions:

.788 Turner in 532 (.940 in last 289 PAs)

???? Yoshida

More from...

.766 Casas

.677 McGuire (.877 w Sox)

.651 Wong (career)

Kike & Arroyo?

 

It's certainly not a slam dunk to say we should be better, and maybe my hopes for Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Kike, Arroyo and others are misplaced, but I'm still thinking 2023 line-up will be better than 2022. You went on and on about us not replacing Renfroe's 98 RBIs from 2021, but how hard should it be to replace Bogey's 73, Story's 66 and JD's 62? And those are the big 3.

 

Turner had 81. Casas projected to 80. That means Yoshida just needs 40.

I’m only talking strictly of where we are right now compared to where we were at this time last year, and we still hadn’t acquired Story yet.

[moonslav59]

On paper, yes. However, JD isn't what he once was. I think Vaz is overrated. Having a real SS and a healthy Story makes a big difference though. A lot of question marks right now.

 

Having Arroyo penciled into the line-up certainly hurts the outlook. Hopefully, we add a middle IF'er to push Christian to the bench. CF is still a question, too.

 

I do think we will be greatly improved at 1B on O and D.

I think devers improves as he reaches prime.

I'm hopeful Dugo's new workout regime improves his numbers.

I honestly think McGuire & Wong can equal the catcher O of 2022 and improve on the D.

I think Turner improves on JD's DH numbers.

Yoshida's plus on O helps lessen the blow of losing Bogey's O.

Kike has to make up for Story's loss, but Story wasn't great in 2022, so it's not a mountain needed to be climbed.

Duvall, Arroyo and whoever we add at middle IF could be keys.

[mvp 78]

MLB debuts this year? I’d say Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, Rafaela and maybe Feltman.

 

That list is very often pitcher-heavy…

 

I'm not sure about Feltman. He was horrible last season. He'd really have to turn it around and get his "stuff" back. He's just not the pitcher he was. I don't know what to think about Walter coming off that injury and not having much exposure at AAA. He'll have every opportunity to make the jump, but we'll see.

 

I'm high on Mayer for sure.

 

Lugo has really turned the afterburners since the start of last season. I think he's more of a September callup or injury callup or more likely guy that gets moved in a trade that appears for another MLB team.

 

Abreu has a shot just because he has a decent approach at the plate, is an OFer on the 40 man and the Sox have a lot of question marks in the OF.

[notin]

I'm not sure about Feltman. He was horrible last season. He'd really have to turn it around and get his "stuff" back. He's just not the pitcher he was. I don't know what to think about Walter coming off that injury and not having much exposure at AAA. He'll have every opportunity to make the jump, but we'll see.

 

I'm high on Mayer for sure.

 

Lugo has really turned the afterburners since the start of last season. I think he's more of a September callup or injury callup or more likely guy that gets moved in a trade that appears for another MLB team.

 

Abreu has a shot just because he has a decent approach at the plate, is an OFer on the 40 man and the Sox have a lot of question marks in the OF.

 

I probably should have added the caveat that not all will debut for Boston.

 

But either way, I needed a risky prediction. All the other ones I chose are likely to start in AAA and are on the 40 man roster

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jorge Alfaro is my darkhorse to be an impact player in any Red Sox renaissance. Just won a winter league MVP, and it's not like he has Fisk or Varitek in front of him on the depth chart. Alfaro is supposed to have a canon, which could also be a factor in the new running rules.

 

An injury to one of the other back-ups could open the door, hit a few Fenway bombs, get along with Cora, communicate with Bello -- and who knows?

 

All in all, it's just another... plank in a span of the bridge.

[notin]

Jorge Alfaro is my darkhorse to be an impact player in any Red Sox renaissance. Just won a winter league MVP, and it's not like he has Fisk or Varitek in front of him on the depth chart. Alfaro is supposed to have a canon, which could also be a factor in the new running rules.

 

An injury to one of the other back-ups could open the door, hit a few Fenway bombs, get along with Cora, communicate with Bello -- and who knows?

 

All in all, it's just another... plank in a span of the bridge.

 

I could see him added to the 40 man once Story can be placed on the 60 day IL…

[moonslav59]

I’m only talking strictly of where we are right now compared to where we were at this time last year, and we still hadn’t acquired Story yet.

 

OK. You said to "start the season," so I thought you meant April.

 

We are way better than the line-up pre-Story. We had JBJ, Dalbec and Arroyo as FT'ers this time, last year.

[moonslav59]

MLB debuts this year? I’d say Mata, Walter, Murphy, Valdez, Rafaela and maybe Feltman.

 

That list is very often pitcher-heavy…

 

I'd say Hamilton and Rafaela have a better chance than Feltman.

[notin]

I'd say Hamilton and Rafaela have a better chance than Feltman.

 

I listed Rafaela.

 

Hamilton? Maybe. But teams often go through more pitchers than pinch runners…

[moonslav59]

I listed Rafaela.

 

Hamilton? Maybe. But teams often go through more pitchers than pinch runners…

 

I listed Hamilton, because he is on the 40 and, right now, our middle IF depth is close to zero. We all know the over under on Arroyo's first IL stint in April 9th.

 

As for pitchers vs everyday players: last year 26 players got 1 PA or more- actually 12 or more.

28 non-everyday players pitched .1 IP (actually 3.1 or more). That's pretty close to even.

 

We currently have 23 pitchers on the 40 man roster. 17 are everyday players with 13 of them starting on the ML roster. That leaves 4 in AAA/AA- most likely Rafaela, Hamilton, Duran, Abreu and Tapia or Alfaro added once Story head to the 60 day IL.

 

As of now, our 4 man ML bench looks like: Wong C, Dalbec 1B/3B, EValdez 2B/1B & Refsnyder OF.

 

Once we add a middle IF'er, Hamilton's chances will diminish, greatly, but I'd still put him above Feltman. I might even put Santos, Shugart, Drohan or Ryan Fernandez above Feltman

 

[mvp 78]

I probably should have added the caveat that not all will debut for Boston.

 

But either way, I needed a risky prediction. All the other ones I chose are likely to start in AAA and are on the 40 man roster

 

I think that caveat is always assumed. Risky predictions are always appreciated anyway. What's fun in being boring?

[mvp 78]

Jorge Alfaro is my darkhorse to be an impact player in any Red Sox renaissance. Just won a winter league MVP, and it's not like he has Fisk or Varitek in front of him on the depth chart. Alfaro is supposed to have a canon, which could also be a factor in the new running rules.

 

An injury to one of the other back-ups could open the door, hit a few Fenway bombs, get along with Cora, communicate with Bello -- and who knows?

 

All in all, it's just another... plank in a span of the bridge.

 

Dude swings for the fences every at bat. I appreciate the grind. I don't believe he's a very good catcher TBH, but he could be ok for a mediocre team.

 

I think it's more likely that we see McGuire and Wong out there.

[Old Red]

OK. You said to "start the season," so I thought you meant April.

 

We are way better than the line-up pre-Story. We had JBJ, Dalbec and Arroyo as FT'ers this time, last year.

 

I did say to start the season, but I forgot Story was added late, but at any rate starting a lineup of Bogey, Raffy, JD, Story, Vaz, Kike, and Dugy based on past history was better going into the season last year than what they got now even with JBJ, Bobby D, and Arroyo. Turner is 38, and Yoshida is unproven, and Duvall is coming off a bad season injury, and all.

[mvp 78]

I listed Rafaela.

 

Hamilton? Maybe. But teams often go through more pitchers than pinch runners…

 

Hamilton is fast, plays a position of need (2b) behind a guy who is constantly getting injured and they are currently working him out in the OF. He could appear in BOS. I'm not sure I'd count on it as his bat is pretty bad.

[Old Red]

Dude swings for the fences every at bat. I appreciate the grind. I don't believe he's a very good catcher TBH, but he could be ok for a mediocre team.

 

I think it's more likely that we see McGuire and Wong out there.

 

An awfully lot of things would have to go right for this not to be a mediocre team. I don’t think Wong is as highly thought of as he is on here.

[notin]

An awfully lot of things would have to go right for this not to be a mediocre team. I don’t think Wong is as highly thought of as he is on here.

 

I’d bet he’s more highly regarded by the Sox than on here. They did acquire him in a trade after all. We on Talksox didn’t do that. (I wanted Graterol than and still do.)

[Old Red]

I’d bet he’s more highly regarded by the Sox than on here. They did acquire him in a trade after all. We on Talksox didn’t do that. (I wanted Graterol than and still do.)

 

They acquired Jeter in that same trade after all too. Graterol hasn’t been all that great either.

[moonslav59]

Dude swings for the fences every at bat. I appreciate the grind. I don't believe he's a very good catcher TBH, but he could be ok for a mediocre team.

 

I think it's more likely that we see McGuire and Wong out there.

 

Agreed, I think the catcher jobs are McGuire's and Wong's to lose, which of course, could happen. I like the added depth signing of Alfaro and along with the Duvall signing makes me think improving OBP is not really the number one or over-riding priority for the 2023 offense look.

 

Turner's .381 OBP since 2017 should be a big help.

Yoshida rates to have a super high OBP, but who knows?

Tapia's OBP since 2020 is .322- not bad for a 4th OF'er and better than our putrid OF OBP of .301, last year.

Hopefully, more PAs from these guys will bring up our team OBP from last year's .322 number:

.358 Casas

.322 Arroyo

.377 McGuire (w the Sox)

.313 Wongs (Plawecki's was .287)

 

Maybe steps up from ...

.358 Devers (his career high was .361 in 2019, so maybe asking for an uptick here is asking for too much.)

.328 Dugo (.355 '20-'21 and .341 career)

.291 Kike (.322 '18-'21 and .314 career)

 

[moonslav59]

I did say to start the season, but I forgot Story was added late, but at any rate starting a lineup of Bogey, Raffy, JD, Story, Vaz, Kike, and Dugy based on past history was better going into the season last year than what they got now even with JBJ, Bobby D, and Arroyo. Turner is 38, and Yoshida is unproven, and Duvall is coming off a bad season injury, and all.

 

Dugo started declining in 2021, but yes the expectation was better going into '22 than going into '21 and now '23.

Kike, too.

Bogey had 23 Hrs and 79 RBI in 2021. That's not all that great, but yes, expectations were higher than _____, this coming year.

JD had a nice 2021 season (.867 w 28 Hrs and 99 RBI), but did we really expect better in '22 than '21?

Vaz was coming off a .659 OPS season. I expect better than that from McGuire and Wong.

I know you had very low expectations for Dalbec and JBJ, so you should have much higher expectations for Casas and Yoshida.

Arroyo led all players in PAs at 2B with 181. Story promised to greatly improve on that, for sure.

Replacing Marwin's 271 PAs (9th on the '21 team" looked like a plus going into '22, but we were also without Schwarber .957, Iggy .915 and we knew Plawecki was not going to hiy .737 again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I did say to start the season, but I forgot Story was added late, but at any rate starting a lineup of Bogey, Raffy, JD, Story, Vaz, Kike, and Dugy based on past history was better going into the season last year than what they got now even with JBJ, Bobby D, and Arroyo. Turner is 38, and Yoshida is unproven, and Duvall is coming off a bad season injury, and all.

 

This is a fair assessment. The '22 regulars were missing Schwarber -- a big factor in the '21 stretch run -- and Renfroe -- a big factor in the '21 regular sked... but the great athleticism of Story was going to replace them (that's what posters kept telling me).

 

As far as the rotations go, I had no doubt that Hill and Wacha would spend time on the IL, but at least they had pitched in '21. Can't really say that for Sale or Paxton. I consider Kluber as the replacement for Eovaldi, because again, at least Kluber pitched all last year -- which makes him more of a sure thing this winter than his hurtwhile colleagues.

[notin]

They acquired Jeter in that same trade after all too. Graterol hasn’t been all that great either.

 

 

And they probably valued Downs more than we did…

[Old Red]

And they probably valued Downs more than we did…

 

The point being they were wrong.

[moonslav59]

An awfully lot of things would have to go right for this not to be a mediocre team. I don’t think Wong is as highly thought of as he is on here.

 

Who is high on Wong?

 

I think the bar being set at Plawecki makes a possible improvement not so far-fetched, but it's not about any great expectations for Wong.

[moonslav59]

The point being they were wrong.

 

Yes, that's always your point.

[Old Red]

Who is high on Wong?

 

I think the bar being set at Plawecki makes a possible improvement not so far-fetched, but it's not about any great expectations for Wong.

 

The point being Plawecki was just a backup to a #1 C. I know you didn’t think Vaz was good enough, and that’s fine, but now the Red Sox have no #1 C just a couple of backups.