A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I'd feel better with Arroyo, EValdez and even Bobby Dee at 2B than Duran in CF.

 

We could also sign Andrus and trade for Wendle.

 

It can't be about the money with Andrus. It must be he wants 3 years or 2 with a hefty 3rd year option buy out.

 

I'd say give it to him, just don't have a no trade clause.

 

I haven’t seen any indication about how many years Andrus wants. Or money. But at some point, he might just want a contract…

[moonslav59]

I haven’t seen any indication about how many years Andrus wants. Or money. But at some point, he might just want a contract…

 

Now that Correa is actually signed, the SS options are not that great or plentiful on the FA market (Andrus, Iggy, Simmons,) but there seem to be a more than 3 SSs on the trading block. I think it's a matter of several teams looking at trade options while telling the Andrus camp to not sign, quickly, until they explore other options. He is going to sign, somewhere and will likely get more than what anyone projected.

 

I'd love to see us get him, even if for 3 years. We could trade him once Mayer wins the job. However, a trade might be the better option, anyway.

 

We could possibly trade for a guy like BCrawford, who is owed $16M/1. We probably could get him for Dalbec or maybe Duran or Murphy. We'd still be under the tax line enough to get a pitcher or 2Bman, now or at the deadline.

[moonslav59]

I think Bloom is just doing his signature move in trying to look for that third option in the fork in the road. It worked out so good last time.

 

I hate to ask for clarification, but what were some of the "3rd options" that have failed, before, and what makes them 3rd, as opposed to second options?

 

I'm not trying to bust your balls or overanalyze, but I'm curious about this "signature 3rd option in the fork in the road" comment.

 

I'm pretty sure he and many GMs have had to settle on 3rd, 4th and even lower options, but what makes this "signature."

 

If reports are true that Abreu was our first winter option, I'm glad we got our 2nd, 3rd or more choice, assuming it was Yoshida. But, that's just me.

[notin]

Now that Correa is actually signed, the SS options are not that great or plentiful on the FA market (Andrus, Iggy, Simmons,) but there seem to be a more than 3 SSs on the trading block. I think it's a matter of several teams looking at trade options while telling the Andrus camp to not sign, quickly, until they explore other options. He is going to sign, somewhere and will likely get more than what anyone projected.

 

I'd love to see us get him, even if for 3 years. We could trade him once Mayer wins the job. However, a trade might be the better option, anyway.

 

We could possibly trade for a guy like BCrawford, who is owed $16M/1. We probably could get him for Dalbec or maybe Duran or Murphy. We'd still be under the tax line enough to get a pitcher or 2Bman, now or at the deadline.

 

Why would the Sox trade anything to pay $16mill to 36yo Brandon Crawford and his 85OPS+ and -4 UZR/150? At some point, the hope appears to be to do anything to keep Duran off the field. Even paying tons and tons money to equally ineffective players who don’t even have the hope for turning things around thanks to Father Time.

 

To me, players like Crawford just aren’t worth that “upgrade”. Not in 2023…

[notin]

The Red Sox have more problems than worrying who’s on the back end of the 40 man.

 

That’s the mentality that creates the problems the Sox have…

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox trade anything to pay $16mill to 36yo Brandon Crawford and his 85OPS+ and -4 UZR/150? At some point, the hope appears to be to do anything to keep Duran off the field. Even paying tons and tons money to equally ineffective players who don’t even have the hope for turning things around thanks to Father Time.

 

To me, players like Crawford just aren’t worth that “upgrade”. Not in 2023…

 

I'd trade Dalbec or Duran for Crawford plus maybe $2-3M. I mentioned Crawford, because he'd be one year vs Andrus 2-3, and he would cost anything in return- other than someone close to DFA level, anyway.

 

He's just one SS of many out there. You mentioned DeJong, who has 3 years left. There is also Mateo, Mondesi and a couple others being dangled.

[Old Red]

That’s the mentality that creates the problems the Sox have…

 

I’m sure all losing last place teams worry about who’s on the tail end of the 40 man. Not!

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox trade anything to pay $16mill to 36yo Brandon Crawford and his 85OPS+ and -4 UZR/150? At some point, the hope appears to be to do anything to keep Duran off the field. Even paying tons and tons money to equally ineffective players who don’t even have the hope for turning things around thanks to Father Time.

 

To me, players like Crawford just aren’t worth that “upgrade”. Not in 2023…

 

He's a career +4.5 UZR/150, but has been up and down over the last 4 years.

 

He's +69 in DRS, career, but just +1 over the last 3 years, combined. That's not bad.

[moonslav59]

I’m sure all losing last place teams worry about who’s on the tail end of the 40 man. Not!

 

Every team "worries" about the bottom of their 40 man roster. It is often where their stars of the future are hanging out. Winning and losing teams pay an enormous amount of attention to those 38th, 39th and 40th slots.

[Bellhorn04]

If reports are true that Abreu was our first winter option, I'm glad we got our 2nd, 3rd or more choice, assuming it was Yoshida. But, that's just me.

 

I'd say the replacement for Abreu was Turner.

 

2023 AAV

Abreu 19.5

Turner 10.85

 

2022 WAR

Abreu fWAR 3.9 bWAR 4.2 FUBAR 4.05

Turner fWAR 2.4 bWAR 2.0 FUBAR 2.2

 

Yoshida was more like a wild card pick.

[Old Red]

I'd say the replacement for Abreu was Turner.

 

2023 AAV

Abreu 19.5

Turner 10.85

 

2022 WAR

Abreu fWAR 3.9 bWAR 4.2 FUBAR 4.05

Turner fWAR 2.4 bWAR 2.0 FUBAR 2.2

 

Yoshida was more like a wild card pick.

 

And Yoshida was signed after the botched Bogey fiasco.

[Bellhorn04]

And Yoshida was signed after the botched Bogey fiasco.

 

Bogey's deal with the Padres was actually announced within hours after the Yoshida signing.

 

But I think the Yoshida signing was going to happen regardless. They scouted this guy for years. Sure hope they were right!

[moonslav59]

I'd say the replacement for Abreu was Turner.

 

2023 AAV

Abreu 19.5

Turner 10.85

 

2022 WAR

Abreu fWAR 3.9 bWAR 4.2 FUBAR 4.05

Turner fWAR 2.4 bWAR 2.0 FUBAR 2.2

 

Yoshida was more like a wild card pick.

 

Abreu got $58.5M/3, which is about between Yoshida and Turner's deals.

 

I think Bloom was looking for a big addition to the offense and Abreu reportedly was his first choice. To me, Yoshida filled that desire more than Turner, but certainly Turner was signed to be the DH, like Abreu would have been.

 

To me, this was one of Bloom's biggest mistakes, and I find it interesting that those who seem to delight in blaming Bloom for everything and anything, raely bring this up.

 

Of all our winter priorities, why was DH number 1?

 

I know we lost JD, but we did have Dalbec, Arroyo, EValdez, Refsnyder and others that seemed more capable than our depth at SS, CF/RF, SP1/2, SP3/4, Closer, RP2, RP4, C...

 

Our biggest two signings were DH/LF (Yoshida) and DH/3B/1B (Turner).

 

Yes, we filled the closer and pen slots well enough. Yes, we ended up signing a decent 3/4 SP'er, but why 2 DHs over a SS, CF/RF and SP1/2?

 

We had a LF'er (Dugo.)

 

We had a 3Bman (Devers) and 1Bman (Casas).

 

We signed two guys best served at DH or LF/3B/1B. Talk about head scratching.

[moonslav59]

Bogey's deal with the Padres was actually announced within hours after the Yoshida signing.

 

But I think the Yoshida signing was going to happen regardless. They scouted this guy for years. Sure hope they were right!

 

The "Bogey Fiasco" was not made the day he signed with the Padres. It was made months or maybe even years earlier, or so it seems.

[Old Red]

Bogey's deal with the Padres was actually announced within hours after the Yoshida signing.

 

But I think the Yoshida signing was going to happen regardless. They scouted this guy for years. Sure hope they were right!

 

They were supposedly in on Suzuki last year too.

[Bellhorn04]

Abreu got $58.5M/3, which is about between Yoshida and Turner's deals.

 

I think Bloom was looking for a big addition to the offense and Abreu reportedly was his first choice. To me, Yoshida filled that desire more than Turner, but certainly Turner was signed to be the DH, like Abreu would have been.

 

To me, this was one of Bloom's biggest mistakes, and I find it interesting that those who seem to delight in blaming Bloom for everything and anything, raely bring this up.

 

Of all our winter priorities, why was DH number 1?

 

I know we lost JD, but we did have Dalbec, Arroyo, EValdez, Refsnyder and others that seemed more capable than our depth at SS, CF/RF, SP1/2, SP3/4, Closer, RP2, RP4, C...

 

Our biggest two signings were DH/LF (Yoshida) and DH/3B/1B (Turner).

 

Yes, we filled the closer and pen slots well enough. Yes, we ended up signing a decent 3/4 SP'er, but why 2 DHs over a SS, CF/RF and SP1/2?

 

We had a LF'er (Dugo.)

 

We had a 3Bman (Devers) and 1Bman (Casas).

 

We signed two guys best served at DH or LF/3B/1B. Talk about head scratching.

 

Personally I'm assuming that Bloom isn't done yet, but there's certainly a lot of potential for head-scratching alright.

[moonslav59]

Personally I'm assuming that Bloom isn't done yet, but there's certainly a lot of potential for head-scratching alright.

 

I'm sure he's not done, but even if he signs Andrus and trades for Wendle, he still spent the bulk of his winter spending, beyond the Devers extension that begins in 2024 on...

 

90M/5 on DH/LF Yoshida (+$15M posting fee)

32M/2 on a closer Jansen

22M/2 on DH/3B/1B Turner

18M/2 on RP2/3 Martin

10M/1 on SP3/4 Kluber (or $21M/2 w club option)

10M/1 on CF Kike (extended before the winter)

2M/1 Joely (or $6M/2 with club option)

 

$112M spent on DHs with their positions being ones way down on our needs list (LF, 3B/1B.) Not counting the $15M posting fee.

$72M spent on high priority areas (Closer, SO, RP, RP, CF)

 

Even if we spend the remaining $23-27M on high need areas (SS, now 2B or OF/P/C), we'll have spent more than half on low priority areas.

 

This, to me, is a major blunder by Bloom & Co., more so than not reaching some imaginary number that would have gotten BorA$$ and Bogey to accept or the Story signing based on faulty or accurate medical reports, which was actually not a "this winter" decision.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Personally I'm assuming that Bloom isn't done yet, but there's certainly a lot of potential for head-scratching alright.

 

Unlike the fable, our Boston tortoise has finished last twice and never first... but his club did pass some teams ahead of them one October.

 

And let's give credit where it's due: one trade that made it happen was getting Pivetta, used in relief because Bloom tortoised on better back-end arms. Pivetta did give up what should've been the game-losing, ALDS-changing hit to Kiermaier, but give credit to Bloom again for signing Renfroe, who strategically kicked the ball into the bullpen.

 

Bloom also traded Betts in time, because Mookie would never boot a ball out of the playing field, so that losing run would have counted.

 

See, no blame here. Just kudos.

[notin]

I’m sure all losing last place teams worry about who’s on the tail end of the 40 man. Not!

 

Of course they do.

 

Haven’t you read MLBTR this off-season and seen the slew of DFAs for Hoy Park and Lewin Davis? The reason teams keep claiming them and exposing them to waivers is they want to keep them, but not dedicate a 40 man roster spot? Know why? BECAUSE THEY CARE ABOUT ALL FORTY PLAYERS ON IT!

 

Really, only have 14 MLB-eligible players to call up doesn’t leave any team much wiggle room. Especially since most teams will need at least 10 spots just for pitching…

[moonslav59]

Unlike the fable, our Boston tortoise has finished last twice and never first... but his club did pass some teams ahead of them one October.

 

And let's give credit where it's due: one trade that made it happen was getting Pivetta, used in relief because Bloom tortoised on better back-end arms. Pivetta did give up what should've been the game-losing, ALDS-changing hit to Kiermaier, but give credit to Bloom again for signing Renfroe, who strategically kicked the ball into the bullpen.

 

Bloom also traded Betts in time, because Mookie would never boot a ball out of the playing field, so that losing run would have counted.

 

See, no blame here. Just kudos.

 

He also signed Kike, who had one of the best playoff seasons in Red Sox history.

 

.408 BA

.423 OBP

.837 SLG

1.260 OPS

 

49 AB in 11 games

5 HRs

4 2Bs

1 3B

9 RBI

9 Runs scored

 

I won't call him a "playoff hero," anymore. Apparently, that is only allowed for players on teams that win rings.

[notin]

And Yoshida was signed after the botched Bogey fiasco.

 

The signing was announced after. No idea when terms were agreed upon. But Yoshida was apparently a long term goal for the Sox…

[notin]

He also signed Kike, who had one of the best playoff seasons in Red Sox history.

 

I won't call him a "playoff hero," anymore. Apparently, that is only allowed for players on teams that win rings.

 

Who made up that rule?

 

Let me guess. Was it the same guy who thinks it’s wrong to acknowledge the Sox did win 78 games?

[moonslav59]

Of course they do.

 

Haven’t you read MLBTR this off-season and seen the slew of DFAs for Hoy Park and Lewin Davis? The reason teams keep claiming them and exposing them to waivers is they want to keep them, but not dedicate a 40 man roster spot? Know why? BECAUSE THEY CARE ABOUT ALL FORTY PLAYERS ON IT!

 

Really, only have 14 MLB-eligible players to call up doesn’t leave any team much wiggle room. Especially since most teams will need at least 10 spots just for pitching…

 

Almost every team, every year, uses over 40 players in a season. To think caring about #38, #39 and #40 is not important is a losing strategy. One big reason we sucked in 2020 was that our bottom 10-12 sucked.

 

In 2020, 19 players got a PA and 30 pitched to at least one batter.

 

In our one good season under Bloom, we saw 23 non pitchers get up to bat and 34 pitchers throw a pitch (not counting the 3 everyday players who pitched.) That's 57 different players. So, #38-40 out of 57 are not important?

[Bellhorn04]

I'm sure he's not done, but even if he signs Andrus and trades for Wendle, he still spent the bulk of his winter spending, beyond the Devers extension that begins in 2024 on...

 

90M/5 on DH/LF Yoshida (+$15M posting fee)

32M/2 on a closer Jansen

22M/2 on DH/3B/1B Turner

18M/2 on RP2/3 Martin

10M/1 on SP3/4 Kluber (or $21M/2 w club option)

10M/1 on CF Kike (extended before the winter)

2M/1 Joely (or $6M/2 with club option)

 

$112M spent on DHs with their positions being ones way down on our needs list (LF, 3B/1B.) Not counting the $15M posting fee.

$72M spent on high priority areas (Closer, SO, RP, RP, CF)

 

Even if we spend the remaining $23-27M on high need areas (SS, now 2B or OF/P/C), we'll have spent more than half on low priority areas.

 

This, to me, is a major blunder by Bloom & Co., more so than not reaching some imaginary number that would have gotten BorA$$ and Bogey to accept or the Story signing based on faulty or accurate medical reports, which was actually not a "this winter" decision.

 

Well, I completely disagree with the methodology you're using, of calculating percentages based on the total contract dollars. If it was me I would only use the 2023 AAV's.

[moonslav59]

Who made up that rule?

 

Let me guess. Was it the same guy who thinks it’s wrong to acknowledge the Sox did win 78 games?

 

I'm trying hard to not stir the pot.

 

I'll only say I was chided for calling him a playoff hero.

 

BTW, he was also a major factor getting us into the playoffs. He hit .809 after April 17th and .874 over his final 80 games of 2021 (363 PAs).

 

His per 162 game average after June 19th was...

 

.267 30 89 (79 XBHs and 107 Runs) 89 RBI was not bad for a lead off hitter. The team went 50-42 in that stretch as many other player struggled at the plate.

 

Kike hit .897 in the last 13 games, when the Sox needed every win and went 8-5.

 

Maybe "hero" is too strong a word, but he was an essential player in us making the playoffs and going as far as we did once in the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as Yoshida and Turner are concerned, if they both hit like Bloom is hoping, I have no problem with spending 29 mill in AAV on them. Run-scoring still matters...

[notin]

I'm trying hard to not stir the pot.

 

I'll only say I was chided for calling him a playoff hero.

 

BTW, he was also a major factor getting us into the playoffs. He hit .809 after April 17th and .874 over his final 80 games of 2021 (363 PAs).

 

His per 162 game average after June 19th was...

 

.267 30 89 (79 XBHs and 107 Runs) 89 RBI was not bad for a lead off hitter. The team went 50-42 in that stretch as many other player struggled at the plate.

 

Kike hit .897 in the last 13 games, when the Sox needed every win and went 8-5.

 

Maybe "hero" is too strong a word, but he was an essential player in us making the playoffs and going as far as we did once in the playoffs.

 

Kike is a good player. Not sure why anyone makes any kind of big deal about him…

[notin]

First rumors linking them!! At least as far as I’ve seen

 

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/mlb-rumors-red-sox-interested-173000250.html

[moonslav59]

Well, I completely disagree with the methodology you're using, of calculating percentages based on the total contract dollars. If it was me I would only use the 2023 AAV's.

 

Do we need a LF'er, 1Bman and 3Bman in 2024 or beyond?

 

Devers is locked up forevers.

Casas has 6 years.

DH is the easiest slot to fill.

 

Even going by just AAV, the percent is still way too high on positions far down my top priority list.

 

18 Yoshida (it would be 21, if the $15M posting fee was divided by 5 and added)

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Kluber

10 Kike

7.5 Martin

2.0 Rodriguez

 

Either way you slice and dice it, 2 of our top 5 signings were at positions of low priority needs.

 

$29M AAV out of $74.5, which is nearly 40% of the AAV spent. If you count the posting fee of $3M x 5 years, it's over 40%.

 

To me, and this is just my opinion, our top needs were:

 

Urgent

1. SS

2. Closer

3. SP #1 or #2

 

Semi Urgent

4. RF

5. RP 2/3

6. SP 3/4

 

Secondary Needs

7. DH

8. RP 4/5

9. C

 

LF, 3B and 1B were near the bottom of my list. Were they high on your list?

 

I can see DH being higher than #7, but in no way was LF/DH a top 5 need. We made it our number 1 signing. We made DH/3B/1B our 3rd highest signing.

 

How is this not an issue worthy of criticism or even harsh criticism?

 

 

Edited January 15, 2023 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Do we need a LF'er, 1Bman and 3Bman in 2024 or beyond?

 

Devers is locked up forevers.

Casas has 6 years.

DH is the easiest slot to fill.

 

Even going by just AAV, the percent is still way too high on positions far down my top priority list.

 

18 Yoshida (it would be 21, if the $15M posting fee was divided by 5 and added)

16 Jansen

11 Turner

10 Kluber

10 Kike

7.5 Martin

2.0 Rodriguez

 

Either way you slice and dice it, 2 of our top 5 signings were at positions of low priority needs.

 

$29M AAV out of $74.5, which is nearly 40% of the AAV spent. If you count the posting fee of $3M x 5 years, it's over 40%.

 

To me, and this is just my opinion, our top needs were:

 

Urgent

1. SS

2. Closer

3. SP #1 or #2

 

Semi Urgent

4. RF

5. RP 2/3

6. SP 3/4

 

Secondary Needs

7. DH

8. RP 4/5

9. C

 

LF, 3B and 1B were near the bottom of my list. Were they high on your list?

 

I can see DH being higher than #7, but in no way was LF/DH a top 5 need. We made it our number 1 signing. We made DH/3B/1B our 3rd highest signing.

 

How is this not an issue worthy of criticism or even harsh criticism?

9

 

 

Because run-scoring actually is important. Putting it as far down on the list of needs as you're doing seems totally arbitrary to me.

 

We lost Bogey and JD. We had to replace their offense. If we acquire a SS now, as hopefully we will, it won't be an offensive shortstop like Bogey, that much seems certain.