A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

@BeyondtheMnstr

Red Sox sign outfielder Greg Allen to minors deal

[Bellhorn04]

The Manny contract, which came with the team sold to JH was likely the best "large and long" deal the teams of the 2000's had. (Papi's 4 year deal is not really "long," and even that great deal that lead to 2 rings, ended very bitterly.

 

Take away the 4 year deals and how many deals were good to great start to finish?

 

How many were good for more than half the years?

 

Had AGon stayed with us and put up the same numbers, would that contract be called a good one?

 

While many of these deals were essential pieces to ring years, and that is a huge plus, not many really could be called clear winning deals. One might begin to understand why JH is reluctant about repeating the same mistakes over and over. Great business men are often known for not doing just that. They learn from their mistakes and try hard not to repeat them.

 

Had we extended Lester, large and long, that would have been in the "win column." Had we extended Jake, ERod and some others, not at all.

 

 

I disagree about avoiding repeating mistakes.

 

Henry knows how risky these contracts are. Raffy's is the riskiest one yet.

 

As I said, a lot of our "bad contracts" helped win championships, so were they really bad?

[Bellhorn04]

Reasons he's still on the team today:

'22 xFIP 3.49

'22 bb/9 1.88

'22 k/bb 4.92

'22 SIERA 3.12

 

Reasons he should be DFA'd

'22 Hard Hit 46.5%

'22 LOB 56.2%

Projected ARB salary 2.5M

 

Seems to illustrate the confusing disparities in stats for pitchers more than anything.

 

Bloom decided he was worth keeping, to me that kinda tips the balance in Brasier's favor...

[Old Red]

MLB offseason grades are in per CBS. The Red Sox got a ringing endorsement with a C-, which was brought up from an F with the Raffy signing. The good news is the O’s got a D, so there is still hope.

[mvp 78]

Seems to illustrate the confusing disparities in stats for pitchers more than anything.

 

Bloom decided he was worth keeping, to me that kinda tips the balance in Brasier's favor...

 

They said they are focusing on reducing the amount of walks given up. If Brasier can keep that bb rate low, he sticks around UNFORTUNATELY.

[moonslav59]

I disagree about avoiding repeating mistakes.

 

Henry knows how risky these contracts are. Raffy's is the riskiest one yet.

 

As I said, a lot of our "bad contracts" helped win championships, so were they really bad?

 

From JH's perspective? Who knows?

 

I doubt he was or is happy about the Price signing, because maybe we win a ring without him, and $217M for 1 rings blows the other equations away.

 

The Sale extension looks bad.

 

Look at the top 6 contracts: 1 ring- total.

 

$217M/7 Price

$154M/7 Agon

$145M/5 Sale

$142M/7 Crawford

$140M/6 Story

$120M/6 Bogey (opt out after $60M/3)

 

I don't count the 2018 Bogey ring, because the contract really just added 2022 to his control years.

 

It's the very large and long contracts that probably scare JH the most.

[moonslav59]

MLB offseason grades are in per CBS. The Red Sox got a ringing endorsement with a C-, which was brought up from an F with the Raffy signing. The good news is the O’s got a D, so there is still hope.

 

I gave this winter a D, but if we sign Andrus or trade for a decent SS, I'd maybe go to C-.

[Bellhorn04]

From JH's perspective? Who knows?

 

I doubt he was or is happy about the Price signing, because maybe we win a ring without him, and $217M for 1 rings blows the other equations away.

 

The Sale extension looks bad.

 

Look at the top 6 contracts: 1 ring- total.

 

$217M/7 Price

$154M/7 Agon

$145M/5 Sale

$142M/7 Crawford

$140M/6 Story

$120M/6 Bogey (opt out after $60M/3)

 

I don't count the 2018 Bogey ring, because the contract really just added 2022 to his control years.

 

It's the very large and long contracts that probably scare JH the most.

 

Those contracts scare anyone.

 

But the Story and Devers signings prove he hasn't sworn them off.

 

They're a cost of doing business.

 

He's got 4 rings and a franchise worth about $4 billion and those big contracts played a big role.

[moonslav59]

Those contracts scare anyone.

 

But the Story and Devers signings prove he hasn't sworn them off...

 

They're a cost of doing business.

 

He's got 4 rings and a franchise worth about $4 billion and those big contracts played a big role.

 

He seems to be very strategic about his largest and longest signings. They usually come right before a window looks to be opening, and when a big hole seems to be a major stumbling block. Only the Sale extension does not really fit that model, but one could argue Price's pending decline pointed towards the need to have a bonafide ace from 2020 to 2024.

 

I think the Devers deal was needed to keep fans from an all out revolt... not that this is the only reason he was extended.

[Bellhorn04]

He seems to be very strategic about his largest and longest signings. They usually come right before a window looks to be opening, and when a big hole seems to be a major stumbling block. Only the Sale extension does not really fit that model, but one could argue Price's pending decline pointed towards the need to have a bonafide ace from 2020 to 2024.

 

I think the Devers deal was needed to keep fans from an all out revolt... not that this is the only reason he was extended.

 

My point is he knows they have to be done, in spite of how much pain he might experience from what looks like a lousy rate of success, which just got even worse with the news on Story...

[Old Red]

Josh Taylor, and Red Sox avoid arbitration on a $1.025 deal. Meah.

[mvp 78]

Josh Taylor, and Red Sox avoid arbitration on a $1.025 deal. Meah.

 

What were you expecting? Wait until the Brasier $$$ comes out! This will sound like a steal.

[moonslav59]

What were you expecting? Wait until the Brasier $$$ comes out! This will sound like a steal.

 

I just don't get why he's worth even the min wage, let alone what he'll get in arb or in a pre-arb agreement.

[mvp 78]

I just don't get why he's worth even the min wage, let alone what he'll get in arb or in a pre-arb agreement.

 

I laid out the reasoning previously (low BB rate, bad luck on balls in play). However, I'm not a believer that he's going to turn it around or that he's better value than a few of the arms they have in the system already. At least use that 13th spot to churn guys in and out of the system to find the next Schreiber?

[notin]

Josh Taylor, and Red Sox avoid arbitration on a $1.025 deal. Meah.

 

Taylor is a terrific reliever when healthy…

[Bellhorn04]

Taylor is a terrific reliever when healthy…

 

That's like saying you're a great poster when you don't use ellipses...

 

(notin-like injury joke)

[mvp 78]

Found a Brasier-stan on Twitter:

 

@RRyanmedeiros

Batted-ball data shows that Brasier was incredibly unlucky in ‘22.

 

He had the 8th-highest differential in MLB (1.80) between ERA and xERA (3.97).

 

But the Sox aren’t keeping just him around to show sympathy for his poor luck

 

Brasier's slider was the 10th most effective pitch on Boston’s staff (-5 run value) and the best offering in his arsenal by far (.262 xWOBA).

 

But he couldn't establish a strong secondary pitch - fastball was 8th worst pitch by a Sox P (+8 RV) and sinker wasn’t far behind (+7).

 

Brasier's 4-seam actually amassed a much better run value than his slider from 2018 until 2022 (4SM (-12) / SLD (-4)).

 

He entered the '22 season throwing 50% 4-seamers, but the early results were so poor (.385 BA / .692 SLG) that he began to mix in the aforementioned sinker.

 

In September, Brasier started throwing his fastball more often again (46%) and the results were excellent (.162 xWOBA on 73 deliveries).

 

Brasier had a 1.80 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in 11 September appearances.

 

The Red Sox front office recognizes the value he can bring if he continues to combine good fastball location with his plus slider.

 

Now you might too.

 

Per Cotillo, the other DFA's so far have been: Almonte, Reed, Bazardo, McGee, Hamilton, Reed, Cordero, Chang, Park, Downs, Hosmer, Darwinzon, Seabold. Not exactly a list of guys that still need to be around.

[notin]

Still don’t get Ort’s survival. I’d have DFAd him over Darwinzon, Bazardo, Seabold, Hosmer, and Downs…

[Old Red]

What were you expecting? Wait until the Brasier $$$ comes out! This will sound like a steal.

 

No. I’m still looking for SS/2B.

[mvp 78]

Still don’t get Ort’s survival. I’d have DFAd him over Darwinzon, Bazardo, Seabold, Hosmer, and Downs…

 

I get it, but the total list of names are all DFA'able.

[mvp 78]

No. I’m still looking for SS/2B.

 

We already know that he's never going to stop everything to do the one thing we want.

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Sox outfield

 

-20 defensive runs saved - 26th

 

Duran -7 DRS - tied for 104th of 115 outfielders (minimum 450 innings)

 

Verdugo -5 DRS - tied for 93rd

 

Kiké was at +14 DRS in 2021 - tied for 6th (minimum 750 innings)

 

*The problem with moving Kiké is you are losing an elite OF

 

Yoshida LF

Duran CF

Verdugo RF

 

That would just be horrible for the pitchers.

[Old Red]

@itsbrianbarrett

Sox outfield

 

-20 defensive runs saved - 26th

 

Duran -7 DRS - tied for 104th of 115 outfielders (minimum 450 innings)

 

Verdugo -5 DRS - tied for 93rd

 

Kiké was at +14 DRS in 2021 - tied for 6th (minimum 750 innings)

 

*The problem with moving Kiké is you are losing an elite OF

 

Yoshida LF

Duran CF

Verdugo RF

 

That would just be horrible for the pitchers.

I would even play the Ref Man full time over Duran.

[moonslav59]

 

Per Cotillo, the other DFA's so far have been: Almonte, Reed, Bazardo, McGee, Hamilton, Reed, Cordero, Chang, Park, Downs, Hosmer, Darwinzon, Seabold. Not exactly a list of guys that still need to be around.

 

I have no beef with him being above all these guys, and even Seabold is not someone I'd go to bat over. I think I'd prefer Seabold over Brasier due to age and options remaining, but the point you brought up about Sebold's stuff just not playing up to the ML level makes sense.

 

It's pretty close between Ort and Brasier, and if we add a SS, we may see Ort go.

[mvp 78]

I would even play the Ref Man full time over Duran.

 

Maybe, but he's a bad defender as well.

[notin]

I would even play the Ref Man full time over Duran.

 

Defensively? Yes. Vs LHP? Yes.

 

But Duran might have some offensive usefulness, especially with the rule changes…

[Old Red]

Maybe, but he's a bad defender as well.

 

Unfortunately there isn’t much options for next man up. Duran was supposed to be next man up, and maybe a couple of years ago Jeter Downs would have been looked at as a next man up by now. The cupboard is pretty bare right now for position players that are ready.

[notin]

There seems to have been a massive shift in team philosophy in just one year's time. We went from feeling so strongly about the need to upgrade OF, and particularly RF defense that we traded away a 98 RBI guy for a known offensive blackhole but great defender to play RF in 2022. Now, we seem okay with playing Dugo in RF, despite not playing him there, at all in 2022, until we dumped JBJ and traded for Pham. We even played Duran and Cordero in RF over Dugo.

 

Then, we replace Dugo in RF with someone maybe better suited to DH.

 

Duran may now be our CF'er? Good GOD!

 

Sign Andrus and trade for Michael A Taylor. Maybe trade for Wendle, too.

 

I like Andrus and Taylor as options.

 

Profar also makes a ton of sense. And maybe even Adam Duvall, who has shown defensive skills and certainly has power…

[moonslav59]

@itsbrianbarrett

Sox outfield

 

-20 defensive runs saved - 26th

 

Duran -7 DRS - tied for 104th of 115 outfielders (minimum 450 innings)

 

Verdugo -5 DRS - tied for 93rd

 

Kiké was at +14 DRS in 2021 - tied for 6th (minimum 750 innings)

 

*The problem with moving Kiké is you are losing an elite OF

 

Yoshida LF

Duran CF

Verdugo RF

 

That would just be horrible for the pitchers.

 

There seems to have been a massive shift in team philosophy in just one year's time. We went from feeling so strongly about the need to upgrade OF Defense, and particularly RF defense that we traded away a 98 RBI guy for a known offensive blackhole but great defender to play RF in 2022. Now, we seem okay with playing Dugo in RF, despite not playing him there, at all in 2022, until we dumped JBJ and traded for Pham. We even played Duran and Cordero in RF over Dugo.

 

Then, we replace Dugo in RF with someone maybe better suited to DH.

 

Duran may now be our CF'er? Good GOD!

 

Sign Andrus and trade for Michael A Taylor. Maybe trade for Wendle, too.

[Old Red]

And to think this offseason started off with Bloom making good additions to the BP. That looks like so long ago now, and maybe even less impressive, or important.