A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Go get Wil Myers.

 

Certainly not for $20M/2.

[mvp 78]

Certainly not for $20M/2.

 

Would you pay more to Mancini or Myers?

[moonslav59]

Would you pay more to Mancini or Myers?

 

Myers.

 

I'm not high on Mancini, anymore.

 

He's fallen off a cliff with HOU and can't play D, anymore.

[mvp 78]

Myers.

 

I'm not high on Mancini, anymore.

 

He's fallen off a cliff with HOU and can't play D, anymore.

 

I've just seen Mancini's name thrown around and I agree with you. He could come at a discount though. His name has more value than his production.

[notin]

I've just seen Mancini's name thrown around and I agree with you. He could come at a discount though. His name has more value than his production.

 

That’s the exact opposite of a discount…

[mvp 78]

That’s the exact opposite of a discount…

 

It is known.

[moonslav59]

If we are looking for a discount and possible upgrade at DH and possible back-up 1B or LF/RF, what about these FAs?

 

Y Gurriel (RHP) 38 y/o

.778 since 2019 (20 HR/162)

.747 since 2021 (108 OPS+)

.807 v LHP/ .763 RHP career splits

 

Vogelbach (LHB) 30 y/o

.769 OPS since 2019 (25 HR per 162 gams)

.762 OPS since 2020 (112 OPS+)

Career: .822 v RHPs (.485 v RHPs)

 

Naquin (LHP)

.756 since 2019 (20 HR/ 162)

.765 since 2020 (101 OPS+)

.794 career v R (.611 v L)

 

Pollack (RHB)

.794 since 2019 (27 HR/162)

.774 since 2021 (OPS+ 111)

 

Duvall (RHB) Just turned 34

.770 since 2019 (37 HRs/162)

.738 since 2021 (97 OPS+)

 

Brantley (LHB) will not be cheap, but he turns 36, next year and may not cost a lot.

.832 since 2019

.795 since 2021

.841 v RHP career (.693 v LHP)

 

Jose Abreu would liely be too expensive, as would B Belt.

[mvp 78]

Gurriel is already 38?

 

Pass on LHB Vogelbach as he's really a DH only guy now.

 

I know a certain CT poster who would love to have Pollack come to the Sox.

[notin]

Duvall’s best part of his game is his defense. Having him on a DH list is like making JBJ a DH candidate…

[moonslav59]

Duvall’s best part of his game is his defense. Having him on a DH list is like making JBJ a DH candidate…

 

Some might argue his power is his strength, but you are right. He would not DH. I guess, if we signed him, it might make Ref a platoon DH and 4th OF'er.

[mvp 78]

Some might argue his power is his strength, but you are right. He would not DH. I guess, if we signed him, it might make Ref a platoon DH and 4th OF'er.

 

Uh...

 

2018-2022 among all OFers

13.5 dWAR ranks 23rd

452 SLG ranks 47th

[moonslav59]

Uh...

 

2018-2022 among all OFers

13.5 dWAR ranks 23rd

452 SLG ranks 47th

 

Ok, but 40 HRs per 650 PAs since 2019 is something "some might argue" is his biggest strength.

[notin]

Ok, but 40 HRs per 650 PAs since 2019 is something "some might argue" is his biggest strength.

 

To be fair, he never said successfully argue.

 

I mean some people might argue Adam Duvall’s strength is his ability to infiltrate the minds of others and make them do his bidding subconsciously. But their argument doesn’t change reality. And the reality with Duvall is rather obvious; it’s defense first, then infiltrating minds is a distant second. Then power…

[notin]

Gurriel is already 38?

 

Pass on LHB Vogelbach as he's really a DH only guy now.

 

I know a certain CT poster who would love to have Pollack come to the Sox.

 

Why pass on “DH only” Vogelbach when the Sox do need a DH?

 

The Sox don’t need a DH to back up anywhere. It’s a nice luxury, but actually straight up offense should be the top (and possibly only) requirement…

[Bellhorn04]

Guesses on how much Vogelbach will get?

[harmony]

Guesses on how much Vogelbach will get?

Sportrac assigns Daniel Vogelbach a current market value of $15 million total over three years:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/

[notin]

Sportrac assigns Daniel Vogelbach a current market value of $15 million total over three years:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/

 

Career OPS vs RHP : .822

Career OPS vs LHP: .485

 

I have no issues with the Reverse Dalbec, especially since we still have the Original Dalbec, so it matches up nicely…

[moonslav59]

Career OPS vs RHP : .822

Career OPS vs LHP: .485

 

I have no issues with the Reverse Dalbec, especially since we still have the Original Dalbec, so it matches up nicely…

 

If career OPS v RHPs is everything, why not just play Hosmer at min pay? He has an .810 career split.

[moonslav59]

Assuming Bogey becomes a FA, here is my ranked priority list with who we have, now, listed:

 

SP (After Sale, Pivetta, Bello and maybe Whitlock or Houck)

Paxton?- Crawford, Wink, Seabold (Mata, Walter, Murphy)

.

SS Arroyo, Downs

 

RF Refsnyder, Dugo (Platoon: Duran in LF v R and Ref in RF v L))

 

P (RP/SP depending where Whitlock/Houck a re slotted) see SP above

 

RP (After Whitlock? Houck? Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor? Kelly)

Brasier, Danish, McGee, Reed, German, Ort, Dhern, Politi

 

RP (see above)

 

1B/DH Casas at 1B, Hosmer/Dalbec at DH & back-up 1B

Arroyo or Ref (AAA: E Valdez, Cordero)

 

RP (see above)

 

C McGuire, Wong (C Hamilton/RHern)

[notin]

If career OPS v RHPs is everything, why not just play Hosmer at min pay? He has an .810 career split.

 

Hosmer is very likely in play for the LHH DH role, by virtue of being in Boston with a full NTC and no salary against. Either he is part of some 1b/DH rotation, or he gets DFAd.

 

But I’m just keeping Vogelbach alive because some people have written him off for weird reasons.

[notin]

Assuming Bogey becomes a FA, here is my ranked priority list with who we have, now, listed:

 

SP (After Sale, Pivetta, Bello and maybe Whitlock or Houck)

Paxton?- Crawford, Wink, Seabold (Mata, Walter, Murphy)

.

SS Arroyo, Downs

 

RF Refsnyder, Dugo (Platoon: Duran in LF v R and Ref in RF v L))

 

P (RP/SP depending where Whitlock/Houck a re slotted) see SP above

 

RP (After Whitlock? Houck? Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor? Kelly)

Brasier, Danish, McGee, Reed, German, Ort, Dhern, Politi

 

RP (see above)

 

1B/DH Casas at 1B, Hosmer/Dalbec at DH & back-up 1B

Arroyo or Ref (AAA: E Valdez, Cordero)

 

RP (see above)

 

C McGuire, Wong (C Hamilton/RHern)

 

For SP, sign Syndergaard and Bassitt

For RP, sign Montero and Fulmer.

 

That’s probably about $50mill in AAV right there.

 

SS, RF and DH (and maybe C) still up in the air…

[moonslav59]

For SP, sign Syndergaard and Bassitt

For RP, sign Montero and Fulmer.

 

That’s probably about $50mill in AAV right there.

 

SS, RF and DH (and maybe C) still up in the air…

 

If we have $80M to spend, that's not much left over for 2 of our top 3-4 high need areas (SS and RF.) If Bogey gets $25M or Swanson gets $23M per, what kind of RF'er do we get for $5-7M? Then, nothing for DH and C.

 

To me, if we want be a top 4-5 contender in 2023, and I'm not sure that is a goal, we will need to trade for a solid pitcher, so we can spend more on SS, RF and the pen.

[notin]

If we have $80M to spend, that's not much left over for 2 of our top 3-4 high need areas (SS and RF.) If Bogey gets $25M or Swanson gets $23M per, what kind of RF'er do we get for $5-7M? Then, nothing for DH and C.

 

To me, if we want be a top 4-5 contender in 2023, and I'm not sure that is a goal, we will need to trade for a solid pitcher, so we can spend more on SS, RF and the pen.

 

Is the limit $80mill?

 

I thought $80mill was what the Sox had committed once Bogaerts opts out…

[notin]

If we have $80M to spend, that's not much left over for 2 of our top 3-4 high need areas (SS and RF.) If Bogey gets $25M or Swanson gets $23M per, what kind of RF'er do we get for $5-7M? Then, nothing for DH and C.

 

To me, if we want be a top 4-5 contender in 2023, and I'm not sure that is a goal, we will need to trade for a solid pitcher, so we can spend more on SS, RF and the pen.

 

Also as it stands now, a Hosmer / Dalbec platoon might be the solution for DH. Not my preference, but it does check a couple boxes.

 

That really just leaves SS and RF…

[moonslav59]

Hosmer is very likely in play for the LHH DH role, by virtue of being in Boston with a full NTC and no salary against. Either he is part of some 1b/DH rotation, or he gets DFAd.

 

But I’m just keeping Vogelbach alive because some people have written him off for weird reasons.

 

I brought up Vogelbach, but it would mean we trade Hosmer. He won't be DFA'd. He has value as a min wage guy, but he needs to okay any trade, so that might get tricky. I don't see Vogelbach as a big upgrade over Hosmer, but I do like him better. The cost of getting Vogelbach will not be worth the upgrade, IMO, and it would mean downscaling what we have to spend on the pen or rotation or SS & RF.

 

Until we trade Hosmer, Vogelbach is not on my list.

 

I'm actually okay with a Hosmer-Dalbec platoon to start 2023, but only if we do well replacing or bringing back Bogey, upgrading RF significantly and adding a solid SP and at least 2 solid pen arms.

 

To me, there are too many high need areas to spend big on all of them. That is one reason I am not sure 2023 will be or should be a semi all-in season. I think we will choose 4-6 of the 7-8 high need areas to address, this winter, but in ways that also help 2024 and beyond, either with a few longer term solid signings or with some more one year deals that help us reset and basically punt the decision to 2024, while keeping us competitive enough to placate most fans.

[moonslav59]

Is the limit $80mill?

 

I thought $80mill was what the Sox had committed once Bogaerts opts out…

 

Yes, about $80M without Bogey.

 

If you spend $50 of that as you indicated, we'll have $30M to spend on SS, RF, DH, C and more pen depth.

[moonslav59]

Also as it stands now, a Hosmer / Dalbec platoon might be the solution for DH. Not my preference, but it does check a couple boxes.

 

That really just leaves SS and RF…

 

What's the odds a Hosmer-Dalbec platoon at DH can match the .783 DH OPS we had, this year?

 

I'd say it's pretty close to 50-50, but likely less than 50%. It may be close enough that we decide to spend, elsewhere. Also, at the deadline, it's easier to find a cheap DH than a cheap pitcher, SS or RF'er.

[notin]

For SP, sign Syndergaard and Bassitt

For RP, sign Montero and Fulmer.

 

That’s probably about $50mill in AAV right there.

 

SS, RF and DH (and maybe C) still up in the air…

 

Running with this:

 

SP: Syndergaard, Bassitt, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello (with Crawford and Winckowski for AAA depth)

RP: Fulmer, Montero, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, LHRP (Taylor? Strahm? Darwinzon? Walter? Murphy?)

 

C: McGuire, Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Story

3b: Devers

SS: E Hernandez or ?

LF: Verdugo

CF: E Hernandez or ?

RF: ?

 

So with $50mill committed to pitching, that leaves $30mill with your limit for a RF and either a SS or a CF.

 

It’s doable although maybe Bogaerts and Swanson are not the answers…

[notin]

What's the odds a Hosmer-Dalbec platoon at DH can match the .783 DH OPS we had, this year?

 

I'd say it's pretty close to 50-50, but likely less than 50%. It may be close enough that we decide to spend, elsewhere. Also, at the deadline, it's easier to find a cheap DH than a cheap pitcher, SS or RF'er.

 

 

Exactly. So why overcommit for one now? Bloom can always dig up someone like Nelson Cruz to grab a bat…

[moonslav59]

Running with this:

 

SP: Syndergaard, Bassitt, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello (with Crawford and Winckowski for AAA depth)

RP: Fulmer, Montero, Houck, Whitlock, Schreiber, Barnes, Kelly, LHRP (Taylor? Strahm? Darwinzon? Walter? Murphy?)

 

C: McGuire, Wong

1b: Casas

2b: Story

3b: Devers

SS: E Hernandez or ?

LF: Verdugo

CF: E Hernandez or ?

RF: ?

 

So with $50mill committed to pitching, that leaves $30mill with your limit for a RF and either a SS or a CF.

 

It’s doable although maybe Bogaerts and Swanson are not the answers…

 

The pen looks better, but I'm not sure Syndergaard & Bassitt out pitch what we got from Wacha and Hill, so maybe we call that a slight upgrade while dreaming Sale and Bello deliver in '23.

 

$30M to replace Bogey at SS and upgrade RF is really pushing it, and is basically projecting a decline in overall offense. Our catchers will not likely match Vaz on O. Our DH will likely fall short of .783, but may get close. It's easy to improve on our pathetic RF offense, but not so much the D. It's not easy to replace Bogey's O, but we may improve the D.

 

Overall, you plan looks like a slight improvement that heavily depends on Sale, Bello, our current catchers, 1Bmen and DHs to perform well.

 

It might be enough to keep us in playoff contention, depending on who we get for SS/CF and RF, and how well the 4 guys you named do.

 

I'd like to bring back Bogey or another top SS or sign Nimmo for CF or RF, but I doubt we can do that after the 4 you'd have us sign.