A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[harmony]

SEA makes it to the playoffs once and he has delusions of grandeur.

The shtick never ends.

[moonslav59]

fWAR since 2019

Kluber 5

Wacha 2.3

 

bWAR since 2019:

 

Kluber 1.8 (91 ERA+)

Wacha 2.7 (91 ERA+)

 

I know Kluber used to be a bull, but 2018 was a long time ago. I think a recent 4 year sample size is more telling than what a pitcher did over 5 years ago.

 

Just my opinion.

[notin]

Myers is a platoon guy. Backs up at RF/1B/DH. Super-SUB guy like Kiké!

 

So he’s a less versatile but more expensive Dalbec?

[notin]

Also, I think a rotation of Sale, Kluber, Bassitt, Bello, Pivetta has the chance to be very, very good.

 

I think Sale and Bello probably occupy one rotation spot. Someone has to be demoted for both games Sale pitches next year…

[notin]

fWAR since 2019

Kluber 5

Wacha 2.3

 

But only one of them was soiled by pinstripes…

[moonslav59]

Myers is a platoon guy. Backs up at RF/1B/DH. Super-SUB guy like Kiké!

 

Yuck!

 

I wouldn't give him $10M/2.

[mvp 78]

The shtick never ends.

 

You're the one saying the Sox have nothing the Mariners would want for a guy with little trade value.

[mvp 78]

bWAR since 2019:

 

Kluber 1.8 (91 ERA+)

Wacha 2.7 (91 ERA+)

 

I know Kluber used to be a bull, but 2018 was a long time ago. I think a recent 4 year sample size is more telling than what a pitcher did over 5 years ago.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I throw babyWAR out with the bath water.

[mvp 78]

So he’s a less versatile but more expensive Dalbec?

 

How is that less versatile? Dalbec hasn't shown he can play OF. Myers can play all 3 OF positions.

[mvp 78]

But only one of them was soiled by pinstripes…

 

I didn't mind Mike Stanley when he was here.

[notin]

Yuck!

 

I wouldn't give him $10M/2.

 

For $1.2mill, the Sox can bring back Refsnyder …

[mvp 78]

I think Sale and Bello probably occupy one rotation spot. Someone has to be demoted for both games Sale pitches next year…

 

I did say "chance."

[mvp 78]

For $1.2mill, the Sox can bring back Refsnyder …

 

Myers is far better than Refsnyder. Refsnyder has a good chance of being DFA'd next season. Keep pumping him up, but he's a AAAA guy.

[harmony]

Any interest in one year of Seattle outfielder Jesse Winker at $8.25 million?

 

Winker may have fallen out of favor in Seattle:

 

https://twitter.com/MarinersSUR/status/1582397824209416192

 

Or not.

More detail on Seattle Times beat writer Ryan Divish's comments about Jesse Winker:

 

https://twitter.com/JoeVeyera/status/1582444432494047232/photo/1

[moonslav59]

Myers is far better than Refsnyder. Refsnyder has a good chance of being DFA'd next season. Keep pumping him up, but he's a AAAA guy.

 

Keep pumping up Myers, but he's a 1.2 per year WAR guy since 2019 and he's also 31, same as Ref.

[mvp 78]

Keep pumping up Myers, but he's a 1.2 per year WAR guy since 2019 and he's also 31, same as Ref.

 

Refsnyder has a career 0.2 fWAR.

 

Per fangraphs, 1 win is worth 8.3M in Free Agency. 8.3 * 1.2 = 9.96M, or 10M AAV which is the contract which I suggested.........................

[notin]

I didn't mind Mike Stanley when he was here.

 

The best thing Mike Stanley was get traded for Tony Armas Jr, who in turn became part of a much, much better trade…

[mvp 78]

The best thing Mike Stanley was get traded for Tony Armas Jr, who in turn became part of a much, much better trade…

 

Stanley with Sox

1996: 2.1 fWAR

1998: 0.7 fWAR (partial season)

1999: 2.2 fWAR

2000: 0.1 fWAR (partial season)

 

I'll carry a torch for Mike Stanley if you guys are going to carry one for Refsnyder.

[notin]

I throw babyWAR out with the bath water.

 

If you like Kluber’s 5.0 fWAR since 2019, what about Jose Quintana and his 8.1 fWAR in that same timeframe? Also he’s 3 years younger, coming off a better season, and didn’t move to the Boston area and then still snub the Red Sox for the Yankees…

[harmony]

You're the one saying the Sox have nothing the Mariners would want for a guy with little trade value.

The reference was to the repeated reminders over the years that the Seattle Mariners had not been to the postseason since 2001.

 

Trevor Story (with his underwater contract) was mentioned as a trade piece.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder has a career 0.2 fWAR.

 

Per fangraphs, 1 win is worth 8.3M in Free Agency. 8.3 * 1.2 = 9.96M, or 10M AAV which is the contract which I suggested.........................

 

I have hopes for Ref, but I'm not sold on him. He may just be a flash. He may be a late-bloomer. I do, however, think we have much greater needs than improving on our 4th OF'er- certainly not for $20M/2.

 

That kind of money can get you a good RP'er.

 

I'd be fine starting the season with Ref as our 4th OF'er and possible DH platoon/partner.

[mvp 78]

I have hopes for Ref, but I'm not sold on him. He may just be a flash. He may be a late-bloomer. I do, however, think we have much greater needs than improving on our 4th OF'er- certainly not for $20M/2.

 

That kind of money can get you a good RP'er.

 

I'd be fine starting the season with Ref as our 4th OF'er and possible DH platoon/partner.

 

I'm trying to right the wrongs of 2020, 2021 and 2022 by making the OF situation a bit stronger. I think adding a clear closer like Montero and having a full year of Whitlock and Houck in relief would make the pen pretty might.

 

It's more likely Whitlock is used as a cheaper SP option though.

[notin]

Stanley with Sox

1996: 2.1 fWAR

1998: 0.7 fWAR (partial season)

1999: 2.2 fWAR

2000: 0.1 fWAR (partial season)

 

I'll carry a torch for Mike Stanley if you guys are going to carry one for Refsnyder.

 

Am I supposed to be impressed that full time starter Mike Stanley accrued more fWAR than fourth OF Refsnyder?

 

Also why are we comparing the two? Is 59yo Mike Stanley a candidate for a Sox bench role?

[mvp 78]

If you like Kluber’s 5.0 fWAR since 2019, what about Jose Quintana and his 8.1 fWAR in that same timeframe? Also he’s 3 years younger, coming off a better season, and didn’t move to the Boston area and then still snub the Red Sox for the Yankees…

 

Quintana over Wacha? Ok. Quintana over Kluber? IDK. I feel like he's an NL guy. I know that's not really a thing anymore, but...

 

Excluding Kluber's CY-era, Statcast looks at them fairly similarly. Kluber is better with the bb rate. Hard to forecast if Kluber can replicate 2022 or even do better. I take a chance on him again though. Looking at Quintana's Statcast shows 2022 as his high water mark and an out of the ordinary season for him for advanced metrics (xISO, Brl, EV). I'd expect significant regression with Quintana in 2023.

[moonslav59]

I'm trying to right the wrongs of 2020, 2021 and 2022 by making the OF situation a bit stronger. I think adding a clear closer like Montero and having a full year of Whitlock and Houck in relief would make the pen pretty might.

 

It's more likely Whitlock is used as a cheaper SP option though.

 

I want to improve the OF, too, along with many other positions. I fully realize that Ref could easily have been a flash-in-the-pan and counting on Duran or Rafaela as OF depth in 2023 is not something I want to do.

 

We both agree we need an OF'er. I like Nimmo and have been warming up to a Beni return, just because there are so few other options out there, especially with decent OBPs. I just can't see placing the 4th OF'er/ part-time DH as a high enough priority to spend $20M/2 on. The more we have for the rotation, pen, SS, a starting OF'er and locking up Devers, the better.

[notin]

Quintana over Wacha? Ok. Quintana over Kluber? IDK. I feel like he's an NL guy. I know that's not really a thing anymore, but...

 

Excluding Kluber's CY-era, Statcast looks at them fairly similarly. Kluber is better with the bb rate. Hard to forecast if Kluber can replicate 2022 or even do better. I take a chance on him again though. Looking at Quintana's Statcast shows 2022 as his high water mark and an out of the ordinary season for him for advanced metrics (xISO, Brl, EV). I'd expect significant regression with Quintana in 2023.

 

Quintana over both.

 

But if they just sign Bassitt, that’s a good start. The Sox probably (against my wishes) move Whitlock to the rotation with Pivetta, Sale and Bello. And Paxton might exercise his $4mil player option and get in his 30-40 IP, too…

[mvp 78]

I want to improve the OF, too, along with many other positions. I fully realize that Ref could easily have been a flash-in-the-pan and counting on Duran or Rafaela as OF depth in 2023 is not something I want to do.

 

We both agree we need an OF'er. I like Nimmo and have been warming up to a Beni return, just because there are so few other options out there, especially with decent OBPs. I just can't see placing the 4th OF'er/ part-time DH as a high enough priority to spend $20M/2 on. The more we have for the rotation, pen, SS, a starting OF'er and locking up Devers, the better.

 

My plans already included re-siging Xander AND Beni, plus 2 starting pitchers and a closer.

[moonslav59]

My plans already included re-siging Xander AND Beni, plus 2 starting pitchers and a closer.

 

Yes, I saw that. I did not disagree with that. I disagreed with spending $20M/2 on a 4th OF'er.

 

1. I doubt we have enough to even move the money you have for Myers to the pen.

2. If we do spend as much as you suggested, I would not spend that amount on lower need area.

3. Spending that $20M on other positions, either by adding 1 or 2 more FAs or by upgrading on one or two slots is a better way to spend.

 

If we add Beni, our OF is not longer even close to a high need area.

 

I'd even rather bring Vaz back or sign another catcher than a 4th OF'er, let alone someone like Myers.

[moonslav59]

I'll bold the moves I think the Sox should actually do:

 

C - Vaz: 2/8

1B/DH - Mancini: 3/30

SS - Bogey: 6/150

OF - Myers: 2/20

OF - Beni: 4/50

SP - Bassitt: 3/60

SP - Kluber: 2/36

RP - Jansen: 1/16

RP - Montero: 1/12

RP - Fulmer: 1/10

 

If we can spend over $123M, like here, I might try something like this:

 

SS Bogey $25 x 6

OF Nimmo $23 x 5

SP Bassitt $20M x 3

SP Wacha $18 x 1 (QO)

RP Montero $12 x 1

RP Fulmer $10M x 1

SP R Hill $7M x 1

RP Strahm $5M x 1

[mvp 78]

Yes, I saw that. I did not disagree with that. I disagreed with spending $20M/2 on a 4th OF'er.

 

1. I doubt we have enough to even move the money you have for Myers to the pen.

2. If we do spend as much as you suggested, I would not spend that amount on lower need area.

3. Spending that $20M on other positions, either by adding 1 or 2 more FAs or by upgrading on one or two slots is a better way to spend.

 

If we add Beni, our OF is not longer even close to a high need area.

 

I'd even rather bring Vaz back or sign another catcher than a 4th OF'er, let alone someone like Myers.

 

Why not make the OF a STRENGTH rather than just NOT AT HIGH NEED AREA?