A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

He's not much of a fielder, either, but he's better than Dalbec-Cordero, and as a platoon, actually pretty decent.

 

I would not DH him. I don't think wasting 2 roster spots on a Dalbec-Cordero DH platoon should even be considered. Throw Arroyo into the mix at 1B and DH, and I still don't want 4 roster slots going to Hosmer, Dalbec, Cordero (who can try to play OF, too) and Arroyo (who can play other IF slots when healthy.)

 

I really like Casas, and do see a big need for him at 1B. BTW, he's currently not a great and maybe not even a good defensive 1Bman. Read between the normally rose-colored soxprospects.coms assessment of his defense:

 

Confident picking out throws in the dirt. Soft hands and surprisingly fluid actions. Moves well enough for first base. Potential solid-average defender there. Drafted as a third baseman, but footwork was choppy, he lacked range, and looked awkward fielding the ball there given his size.

 

I fully expect Casas to be our cost-controlled, capable 1Bman for the next few years. He won't be platooned, unless he proves to need it. We may go "light" at DH, or sign someone to play RF with Refsnyder, who can also DH. We may keep one from Dalbec and Cordero on the 26, but not both, and I think both still have options remaining. I think Arroyo has earned a 26 man slot, if healthy and maybe Enmanuel Valdez might bump Dalbec or Cordero off the 26.

 

Our need in CF is the clearest.

 

To me, 2B or SS is second among everyday player needs.

 

RF/DH might be third.

 

I think we may stay put at catcher.

 

1B is the last possible need area without Casas, but with him is not a n eed area at all. I would not sign a 1B/DH type. I'd sign a RF/DF type.

 

From the anticipated roster (meaning only those in the org after FAs declare):

 

C: McGuire, Wong

1b/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

2b: Arroyo? Valdez?

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Cordero? Duran?

CF: Refsnyder?

RF: Verdugo?

 

SP: Sale

SP: Paxton

SP: Pivetta

SP: Bello

SP: ?

 

CL: Houck?

RP: Schreiber

RP: Whitlock

RP: Crawford

RP: Winckowski

RP: German

RP: Kelly?

RP: LHP? D Hernandez? Taylor?

 

Now some extensions or new deals or QOs will fill some slots from within, possibly with Eovaldi and/or Wacha.

 

The INF is probably all already here, especially if they extend/bring back Bogaerts.

 

The OF? Beyond Verdugo, there isn’t much.

 

So basically 2 OF and a 2b or SS.

Edited September 5, 2022 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now some extensions or new deals or QOs will fill some slots from within, possibly with Eovaldi and/or Wacha.

 

 

It makes sense to land at least one of two starting pitchers who have already proven they can thrive in Boston.

 

Let's see how/if Nate rebounds this month; if not, doesn't someone (foolishly?) pay Wacha more this winter?

[Bellhorn04]

It makes sense to land at least one of two starting pitchers who have already proven they can thrive in Boston.

 

Let's see how/if Nate rebounds this month; if not, doesn't someone (foolishly?) pay Wacha more this winter?

 

Wacha has probably earned himself offers like 3 years for $35 million or thereabouts I'm guessing?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wacha has probably earned himself offers like 3 years for $35 million or thereabouts I'm guessing?

 

Sounds great for Wacha, but where does that leave Eovaldi on the market? At a couple years older, can he realistically expect at least his previous AAV of $17M... say 3 for $51? Gotta expect any good agent to ask 3 for $60, right? At what point does Bloom walk away -- or has he already (remember, he didn't trade Nate at the deadline)?

 

edit: Bassitt is actually older than Eovaldi, and Spotrac's 2023 MLB Free Agent Tracker projects his AAV at just over $20, with Nate just under $20

Edited September 5, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

From the anticipated roster (meaning only those in the org after FAs declare):

 

C: McGuire, Wong

1b/DH: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

2b: Arroyo? Valdez?

SS: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Cordero? Duran?

CF: Refsnyder?

RF: Verdugo?

 

SP: Sale

SP: Paxton

SP: Pivetta

SP: Bello

SP: ?

 

CL: Houck?

RP: Schreiber

RP: Whitlock

RP: Crawford

RP: Winckowski

RP: German

RP: Kelly?

RP: LHP? D Hernandez? Taylor?

 

Now some extensions or new deals or QOs will fill some slots from within, possibly with Eovaldi and/or Wacha.

 

The INF is probably all already here, especially if they extend/bring back Bogaerts.

 

The OF? Beyond Verdugo, there isn’t much.

 

So basically 2 OF and a 2b or SS.

 

Barnes will be slotted right behind Whitlock on your list, assuming Whitlock is not starting.

 

The 5th starter, assuming it's not Whitlock or an addition might be one from Mata, Crawford, Wink, TWard, Walter, Seabold.

[moonslav59]

Wacha has probably earned himself offers like 3 years for $35 million or thereabouts I'm guessing?

 

These days, maybe $40-45M/3.

 

I'd offer him the one year QO.

[moonslav59]

Sounds great for Wacha, but where does that leave Eovaldi on the market? At a couple years older, can he realistically expect at least his previous AAV of $17M... say 3 for $51? Gotta expect any good agent to ask 3 for $60, right? At what point does Bloom walk away -- or has he already (remember, he didn't trade Nate at the deadline)?

 

edit: Bassitt is actually older than Eovaldi, and Spotrac's 2023 MLB Free Agent Tracker projects his AAV at just over $20, with Nate just under $20

 

Why would Eovaldi get paid more per year than his last deal?

 

I would not bring him back at his age, and with injuries always seeming to be right around the corner. (We have Paxton & Sale for those slots.)

[Nick]

Big ??? mark on Paxton.

 

He can chose to play for $4M for Sox in 2023 if Sox does not pick up the option.

 

It will cost Sox 2 year $26M to pick up Paxton's option.

 

It seems pretty large for a guy that never pitched in 2022.

[notin]

Barnes will be slotted right behind Whitlock on your list, assuming Whitlock is not starting.

 

The 5th starter, assuming it's not Whitlock or an addition might be one from Mata, Crawford, Wink, TWard, Walter, Seabold.

 

I forgot about Barnes.

 

I assume the fifth starter to be Wacha or Eovaldi…

[notin]

Big ??? mark on Paxton.

 

He can chose to play for $4M for Sox in 2023 if Sox does not pick up the option.

 

It will cost Sox 2 year $26M to pick up Paxton's option.

 

It seems pretty large for a guy that never pitched in 2022.

 

I think they pick the option up. They knew the risks when they signed him and the bulk of moves last off-season always felt like they were more about 2023…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Why would Eovaldi get paid more per year than his last deal?

 

I would not bring him back at his age, and with injuries always seeming to be right around the corner. (We have Paxton & Sale for those slots.)

 

Current market value. I didn't create Spotrac, just citing it. I'm not saying I agree with all their numbers: Verlander and deGromm over $40 AAV, Wainwright over $35, Kershaw and Rodon $31 AAV.

 

A sustained contender might like to add Eovaldi to its staff -- an All-Star last year who led the league in FIP, and knocked off the Yankees in two different postseasons.

[notin]

Why would Eovaldi get paid more per year than his last deal?

 

I would not bring him back at his age, and with injuries always seeming to be right around the corner. (We have Paxton & Sale for those slots.)

 

 

Because the only way Eovaldi should return is by accepting a QO.

 

While he was actually relatively healthy during his 4 years with Boston - at least compared to the rest of his career - he shouldn’t come back on anything longer than a one year deal. Especially given how he’s pitched this year.

 

He’s 32, coming off a bad year, and has a past plagued with injuries. He isn’t going to get healthier and more effective in his 30s.

 

One year max on a Qualifying Offer…

[moonslav59]

Current market value. I didn't create Spotrac, just citing it. I'm not saying I agree with all their numbers: Verlander and deGromm over $40 AAV, Wainwright over $35, Kershaw and Rodon $31 AAV.

 

A sustained contender might like to add Eovaldi to its staff -- an All-Star last year who led the league in FIP, and knocked off the Yankees in two different postseasons.

 

He might get $40M/3 or $30M/2.

 

I would not even offer him a QO, but it wouldn't be a crazy idea.

 

I'd rather offer one to Wacha. It would be interesting to see us offer both one. (They'd probably bot accept.)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I’d trade his (moon’s) dog…

 

 

MOON would have to assign his dog a BTV.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He might get $40M/3 or $30M/2.

 

I would not even offer him a QO, but it wouldn't be a crazy idea.

 

I'd rather offer one to Wacha. It would be interesting to see us offer both one. (They'd probably bot accept.)

 

And he might get more. No posters establish the market.

 

Remember when some here were convinced there was "no way possible" Bradley could ever make what the Sox paid him in free agency? And then Milwaukee paid him more.

[moonslav59]

Current market value. I didn't create Spotrac, just citing it. I'm not saying I agree with all their numbers: Verlander and deGromm over $40 AAV, Wainwright over $35, Kershaw and Rodon $31 AAV.

 

A sustained contender might like to add Eovaldi to its staff -- an All-Star last year who led the league in FIP, and knocked off the Yankees in two different postseasons.

 

That site is very generous. For example: JD is worth $23.3M? LOL!

 

Here are some... (They don't list Kike or Bogey)

 

SP

43 Verlander

41 deGrom

32 Kershaw

31 Rodon

21 Bassitt

20 Manaea

20 Nate

16 Syndergaard

 

Closer

15 Diaz

10 Jansen

9 Kimbrel

7 Chapman

 

SS/2B.

29 T Turner

22 Swanson

 

CF/RF

32 Judge

20 Gallo (what a joke!)

13 Nimmo (worth way more)

 

RF/DH

20 Mancini (1B)

 

1B or DH

19 Bell

9 Abreu

 

[moonslav59]

And he might get more. No posters establish the market.

 

Remember when some here were convinced there was "no way possible" Bradley could ever make what the Sox paid him in free agency? And then Milwaukee paid him more.

 

I realize I am just posting my opinions.

[moonslav59]

MOON would have to assign his dog a BTV.

 

Daisy is 30.8

Kiza is 16.3 (due to her silliness and lack of focus.)

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Daisy is 30.8

Kiza is 16.3 (due to her silliness and lack of focus.)

 

Daisy should get the SOX a TOTR starter and Kiza should get an excellent closer in return.

[notin]

That site is very generous. For example: JD is worth $23.3M? LOL!

 

Here are some... (They don't list Kike or Bogey)

 

SP

43 Verlander

41 deGrom

32 Kershaw

31 Rodon

21 Bassitt

20 Manaea

20 Nate

16 Syndergaard

 

Closer

15 Diaz

10 Jansen

9 Kimbrel

7 Chapman

 

SS/2B.

29 T Turner

22 Swanson

 

CF/RF

32 Judge

20 Gallo (what a joke!)

13 Nimmo (worth way more)

 

RF/DH

20 Mancini (1B)

 

1B or DH

19 Bell

9 Abreu

 

 

Who runs this site? Scott Boras?

 

The only thing I know for sure is Nimmo’s agent doesn’t…

[moonslav59]

Daisy should get the SOX a TOTR starter and Kiza should get an excellent closer in return.

 

They are the only untouchables on the roster.

[Nick]

Staying on the topic...how to spend $79M with Pham in fold in left field ($6M mutual option seems will be exercised)

 

Notin had Sox picking up Paxton's 2 year, $26M option.

 

So our starters are now Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello and Whitlock (my pick).

 

Notin however had Xander gone, saving $20M + $10M raise I used. That takes us up to $96M to improve the team. Why not sign Kike for $10M to play centerfield/shortstop, splitting time with Arroyo and Duran?

 

You can buy lot of pitching for $86M that's leftover, if we can live without both JD and Xander and duplicate this year's run total.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Staying on the topic...how to spend $79M with Pham in fold in left field ($6M mutual option seems will be exercised)

 

Notin had Sox picking up Paxton's 2 year, $26M option.

 

So our starters are now Sale, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello and Whitlock (my pick).

 

Notin however had Xander gone, saving $20M + $10M raise I used. That takes us up to $96M to improve the team. Why not sign Kike for $10M to play centerfield/shortstop, splitting time with Arroyo and Duran?

 

You can buy lot of pitching for $86M that's leftover, if we can live without both JD and Xander and duplicate this year's run total.

 

I don't think anything Paxton has done or not done, this year will deter us from taking his option.

 

I think we take the Pham option, too.

 

If we plan on going over the tax line, we may have $80-100M to spend on these slots:

 

CF

Ace

2B/SS

Closer

RF/DH

RP

 

At an average of $15M per player, if we sign 6 and close to $20M, if we sign only 5. That could be some huge improvement!

 

We could go with Arroyo/Valdez at 2B, Dugo/Pham/Refsnyder at corner OF/DH or sign 3 cheaper RP'er than 2 major ones and then go $25M x 4. (I doubt it, but we can.)

 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

They are the only untouchables on the roster.

 

So you're saying you love your dogs more than the SOX?

[Maxbialystock]

It’s hard to envision the Sox extending both.

 

Devers is younger and the better hitter, but also will be much more expensive.

 

Bogaerts plays the more premium position. But should be significantly cheaper.

 

Both figure to sign until at least age 36. Devers probably becomes a 1b/DH in a few years. Bogaerts figures to move off SS in a couple years, possibly to 3b but it could be anywhere from 1b to LF.

 

I imagine most people sign Devers, given the choice. But is that the right way to go?

 

Also well written--and with which I have no quarrel.

[moonslav59]

So you're saying you love your dogs more than the SOX?

 

More than any single Sox player is my answer to that gotcha question.

[jacksonianmarch]

There's no way they're extending both. Xander's loss of power makes it even more guaranteed. Xander may be hurt or that may have been a smokescreen. If he loses his power and is a slap hitting, high average, awful defensive SS, you dont want him on your roster well beyond his mid 30s. Story is the better defender and the better power hitter who will likely be better in the long run. For Devers, I would look at what you can get for him. He's good, but he's not Juan Soto. His biggest asset financially is the age he will hit FA, and that doesn't benefit the Red Sox. Sox have too many holes right now to commit 12 years and stupid money to. Might be better off filling multiple holes by offloading him, and if he's dead set on hitting FA, outbid others for his services 24 and beyond

[Maxbialystock]

This has become an excellent thread, including everyone I disagree with (and who probably know more than I).

 

Keep it up!!!!

 

Spotrac is nuts even though I entirely agree owners/GMs can do looney tunes stuff--like that JBJ contract. And, lo and behold, he's now playing for the Jays for free (the Sox DFA'd him). His September OPS is .200, and August 12-31 was .456. But he's still pretty good in the field.

[moonslav59]

The Seager contract looks just as bad.

[Maxbialystock]

There's no way they're extending both. Xander's loss of power makes it even more guaranteed. Xander may be hurt or that may have been a smokescreen. If he loses his power and is a slap hitting, high average, awful defensive SS, you dont want him on your roster well beyond his mid 30s. Story is the better defender and the better power hitter who will likely be better in the long run. For Devers, I would look at what you can get for him. He's good, but he's not Juan Soto. His biggest asset financially is the age he will hit FA, and that doesn't benefit the Red Sox. Sox have too many holes right now to commit 12 years and stupid money to. Might be better off filling multiple holes by offloading him, and if he's dead set on hitting FA, outbid others for his services 24 and beyond

 

Xander's WAR is 5.3, 9th best in MLB and highest among MLB shortstops, so you judgment is seriously flawed.

 

I agree renewing Bogaerts and Devers is really hard given all the other things to fix, most notably pitching.

 

Another issue for Devers is he will want at least 10 years, and I don't see John Henry signing up for that.