A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[MADSTORK]

A realistic view of 23 ?

 

Fire Bloom and call Epstein!

[mvp 78]

Some have said “whatever it takes.” Others have said $150/6, which I’d be fine with, but I doubt he accepts.

 

I think he gets $200/8 or $170//6 but not with Boston.

 

I don't think he gets 8 years. Those kind of deals aren't really that popular to give out.

[mvp 78]

To revisit the 2023 budget framework:

 

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now

 

SP

25.6 Sale

8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)

.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)

.72 Crawford (pre Arb)

.72 Mata (pre Arb)

.72 Bello (pre Arb)

minor Seabold (pre Arb)

minor Groome (pre Arb)

 

RP

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now or this winter)

1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)

1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining)

.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)

.73 Houck (pre Arb)

.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)

minor Danish (pre Arb)

minor P Valdez (pre Arb)

minor K Ort (pre Arb)

 

C

.72 Wong (pre Arb)

.72 R Hernandez (pre Arb)

 

1B

~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)

.73 Dalbec (pre Arb)

 

2B

23.3 Story

1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

 

3B

~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

 

SS

.72 Downs (pre Arb)

 

LF

~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

 

CF

.72 Duran (pre Arb)

 

RF

~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)

 

 

That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions.

 

To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M.

 

For those who want us to extend or re-sign Bogey and Devers, here's how that might look, minimum:

 

$26 x 5 Bogey

$29 x 7 Devers

 

That's $55M. If it's true we are re-setting after this season, then that leaves about $36M to fill all the rest of the slots not filled by in system players.

 

Let's play best case scenario and figure Casas can play 1B, next year, and one young starter can take Hill's 5 starter slot. We need to fill the 1/2 slot (Nate) and the 2/3 slot (Wacha), unless you think our 5 man rotation will be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski and Crawford/Bello/Mata (or Whitlock). We also need a catcher and CF and RF, unless you want to go all year with Wong/RHern at catcher, or Refsnyder/Duran in RF and CF FT. And, who DH'es? Dalbec/Cordero? LOL!!!

 

How can $36M fill

 

SP1

SP2

C

1B

CF

RF

DH

 

Unless Henry opens the wallet, again, what good does it do to sign Bogey? We ain't winning by bringing the same team back minus JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Kike, Vaz and Strahm, or by filling all their shoes with $36M.

 

 

Is your math counting Devers twice for some reason?

[oldtimer]

Is your math counting Devers twice for some reason?

 

Good question.

[moonslav59]

Is your math counting Devers twice for some reason?

 

My bad. Add $25M to the total available to spend, assuming we extend him this winter.

 

$51M is a lot more than $36M, but still makes filling 5-7 slots with high level talent pretty difficult. Not impossible, but not easy.

 

This was the area Bloom was supposed to excel at, so he better find some more gems in the rough.

[oldtimer]

To revisit the 2023 budget framework:

 

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now

 

SP

25.6 Sale

8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)

.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)

.72 Crawford (pre Arb)

.72 Mata (pre Arb)

.72 Bello (pre Arb)

minor Seabold (pre Arb)

minor Groome (pre Arb)

 

RP

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now or this winter)

1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)

1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining)

.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)

.73 Houck (pre Arb)

.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)

minor Danish (pre Arb)

minor P Valdez (pre Arb)

minor K Ort (pre Arb)

 

C

.72 Wong (pre Arb)

.72 R Hernandez (pre Arb)

 

1B

~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)

.73 Dalbec (pre Arb)

 

2B

23.3 Story

1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

 

3B

~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

 

SS

.72 Downs (pre Arb)

 

LF

~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

 

CF

.72 Duran (pre Arb)

 

RF

~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)

 

 

That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions.

 

To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M.

 

For those who want us to extend or re-sign Bogey and Devers, here's how that might look, minimum:

 

$26 x 5 Bogey

$29 x 7 Devers

 

That's $55M. If it's true we are re-setting after this season, then that leaves about $36M to fill all the rest of the slots not filled by in system players.

 

Let's play best case scenario and figure Casas can play 1B, next year, and one young starter can take Hill's 5 starter slot. We need to fill the 1/2 slot (Nate) and the 2/3 slot (Wacha), unless you think our 5 man rotation will be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski and Crawford/Bello/Mata (or Whitlock). We also need a catcher and CF and RF, unless you want to go all year with Wong/RHern at catcher, or Refsnyder/Duran in RF and CF FT. And, who DH'es? Dalbec/Cordero? LOL!!!

 

How can $36M fill

 

SP1

SP2

C

1B

CF

RF

DH

 

Unless Henry opens the wallet, again, what good does it do to sign Bogey? We ain't winning by bringing the same team back minus JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Kike, Vaz and Strahm, or by filling all their shoes with $36M.

 

 

MVP raised a question about your math. Did you count Devers twice?

 

If Casas can fill !st base with Dalbec as a backup and Franchy gone, there is no increase in expense.

 

Keeping Vazquez along with our best prospect solidifies our catcher

 

I advocate finishing the season by playing our best outfield prospects to see if one can stick. FA outfielders are available for one position unless Ref can hold one down.

 

A top class starting pitcher could be a major expense. Will we go after a top of the line or someone below. I can't see us affording two.

 

A lower cost DH for 2023 makes sense as I doubt we can become fully competitive in 2023. Just too many holes.

[moonslav59]

MVP raised a question about your math. Did you count Devers twice?

 

If Casas can fill !st base with Dalbec as a backup and Franchy gone, there is no increase in expense.

 

Keeping Vazquez along with our best prospect solidifies our catcher

 

I advocate finishing the season by playing our best outfield prospects to see if one can stick. FA outfielders are available for one position unless Ref can hold one down.

 

A top class starting pitcher could be a major expense. Will we go after a top of the line or someone below. I can't see us affording two.

 

A lower cost DH for 2023 makes sense as I doubt we can become fully competitive in 2023. Just too many holes.

 

Funny how Casas was the plan for this year and Bloom was bashed for it, and now the plan for 2023? (I’m okay with the idea, as we have to choose a few places to fill from within, again this year.)

 

I’m not for bringing Vaz back but if we do add $10+ M. Noting wants to offer him a QO, so maybe way more than $10M.

 

We have no ML ready OF prospects, unless you count Duran who should only play LF where we already have a guy who should only play LF.

 

Who DHs? Dalbec, Cordero and Northcut? Lol!!!

 

Then, we need 3-4 pitchers just to get us back to even, which is last place, if reminding is needed. Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm.

 

To many slots to fill with $50M to spend, IMO, and that’s why I am near certain Bogey walks. The only way he comes back is if no GM pays him more than what most expect his minimum is, maybe $150/6

[mvp 78]

My bad. Add $25M to the total available to spend, assuming we extend him this winter.

 

$51M is a lot more than $36M, but still makes filling 5-7 slots with high level talent pretty difficult. Not impossible, but not easy.

 

This was the area Bloom was supposed to excel at, so he better find some more gems in the rough.

 

Look at the FA market this season. Are there 5-7 slots you can even fill with it? Has Bloom shown that he'd be willing to fill the team that way? More likely it's a combination of trade for younger guys, farm development and FA signings.

[mvp 78]

Funny how Casas was the plan for this year and Bloom was bashed for it, and now the plan for 2023? (I’m okay with the idea, as we have to choose a few places to fill from within, again this year.)

 

I’m not for bringing Vaz back but if we do add $10+ M. Noting wants to offer him a QO, so maybe way more than $10M.

 

We have no ML ready OF prospects, unless you count Duran who should only play LF where we already have a guy who should only play LF.

 

Who DHs? Dalbec, Cordero and Northcut? Lol!!!

 

Then, we need 3-4 pitchers just to get us back to even, which is last place, if reminding is needed. Nate, Wacha, Hill and Strahm.

 

To many slots to fill with $50M to spend, IMO, and that’s why I am near certain Bogey walks. The only way he comes back is if no GM pays him more than what most expect his minimum is, maybe $150/6

Is the plan to sign 3-4 pitchers that are going to spend half the year on the IL again?

[Bellhorn04]

Is the plan to sign 3-4 pitchers that are going to spend half the year on the IL again?

 

You know it!

[mvp 78]

You know it!

 

Hmmm, sounds like a bad idea to me. We need to let them know!

[moonslav59]

Is the plan to sign 3-4 pitchers that are going to spend half the year on the IL again?

 

What did you guts really expect for...

 

$7M (Wacha)

 

$5M (Hill)

 

$8M/2 (Diemnan)

 

$3M (Strahm)

 

$700K (Schreiber)

 

OK, it's fine to say Bloom was wrong on spending $6M on Paxton and thinking beyond 2022. Yes, the JBJ money could have been used to upgrade. Yes, Bloom could have signed 2 better (healthier?) guys, instead of 5. He c ould have spread the Story wealth around more evenly. Lots of what ifs...

 

I'm not saying, you, MVP, are ignoring the budget context, but sometimes I think some posters forget that spending more on one area would ahve meant spending less in another. They bitch about not spending more on 1B and RF, and sure, it's easy, in hindsight, so say we should not have spent $8M on Diekman and $5M on Hill and spent on 1B and RF, instead, but look at all the pitchers on IL. One could also argue he should have signed 2 more pitchers for $13M or the $24M spent on Story and not on 1B and RF.

 

$

[moonslav59]

Look at the FA market this season. Are there 5-7 slots you can even fill with it? Has Bloom shown that he'd be willing to fill the team that way? More likely it's a combination of trade for younger guys, farm development and FA signings.

 

Yes, every year he has chosen to spend on 5-7 or more guys and not 1-3. The first 2 years, he had to. He started with about 20 holes on the 40 man roster and a precious little winter spending budget.

 

Before 2021, he signed a bunch of 1 year deals. Only Kike and Sawamura were more than 1 year. Not counting the trade for Ottavino's contract (+German):

 

1. Richards $10M

2. Kike $14M/2

3. Perez $5M

4. Renfroe $3.1M

5. Marwin $3M

6. Andriese $2.1M

7. Sawamura $3M/2

 

Last winter, he finally went somewhat large and long for his first time, but still signed 5+ players, not counting adding JBJ's bloated contract:

 

1. Story $140M/6

2. Paxton $10M

3. Wacha $7M

4. Hill $5M

5. Diekman $8M/2

6. Strahm $3M

 

We lose 9m players to free agency, next winter. 9 from the 26. How can he not fill 5-7 slots? He may fill 8+.

 

Yes, some may be and should be by trade, but I can't see less than 5 FA signings, this winter.

 

 

[moonslav59]

You know it!

 

It was wonderful, when he signed all year healthy Richards and Perez plus added Ottavino, last winter.

[Bellhorn04]

It was wonderful, when he signed all year healthy Richards and Perez plus added Ottavino, last winter.

 

Just trying to have some fun in the midst of misery, sir.

[mvp 78]

What did you guts really expect for...

 

$7M (Wacha)

 

$5M (Hill)

 

$8M/2 (Diemnan)

 

$3M (Strahm)

 

$700K (Schreiber)

 

OK, it's fine to say Bloom was wrong on spending $6M on Paxton and thinking beyond 2022. Yes, the JBJ money could have been used to upgrade. Yes, Bloom could have signed 2 better (healthier?) guys, instead of 5. He c ould have spread the Story wealth around more evenly. Lots of what ifs...

 

I'm not saying, you, MVP, are ignoring the budget context, but sometimes I think some posters forget that spending more on one area would ahve meant spending less in another. They bitch about not spending more on 1B and RF, and sure, it's easy, in hindsight, so say we should not have spent $8M on Diekman and $5M on Hill and spent on 1B and RF, instead, but look at all the pitchers on IL. One could also argue he should have signed 2 more pitchers for $13M or the $24M spent on Story and not on 1B and RF.

 

$

 

Conveniently ignoring the Paxton signing.

[moonslav59]

Conveniently ignoring the Paxton signing.

 

No. I mentioned it.

[moonslav59]

Just trying to have some fun in the midst of misery, sir.

 

Had Bloom signed Perez, instead of Hill, we'd be buyers.

[mvp 78]

Had Bloom signed Perez, instead of Hill, we'd be buyers.

 

If Perez signed here, Plawecki's CERA regression would have tanked Perez' career. He'd be pitching in Japan by now.

[Bellhorn04]

Had Bloom signed Perez, instead of Hill, we'd be buyers.

 

The saddest words of tongue and pen:

"What might have been."

[sk7326]

I think the season has come down to a few factors

 

1. Letting Schwarber walk was perfectly fine, but they have ended up getting exactly nothing from what is supposed to be one of the bedrock offensive positions in baseball

2. Their offense was predicated on the middle infield being superior and that has not happened

3. Injury risks getting injured. Indeed, Wacha has been good for them and the team has really missed him. Schreiber has been one of the best reliever in baseball.

4. The team was right to try Whitlock in the rotation, but it did hurt the bullpen and the ripple effect is what it was.

5. Really a lot of this hinged on Sale's health and a real sad trombone there. Really the last few seasons (2021 aside which was a nice surprise) feel like baseball cosmic punishment for that Sale extension, which looked like a car accident in slow motion at the time.

[mvp 78]

I think the season has come down to a few factors

 

1. Letting Schwarber walk was perfectly fine, but they have ended up getting exactly nothing from what is supposed to be one of the bedrock offensive positions in baseball

2. Their offense was predicated on the middle infield being superior and that has not happened

3. Injury risks getting injured. Indeed, Wacha has been good for them and the team has really missed him. Schreiber has been one of the best reliever in baseball.

4. The team was right to try Whitlock in the rotation, but it did hurt the bullpen and the ripple effect is what it was.

5. Really a lot of this hinged on Sale's health and a real sad trombone there. Really the last few seasons (2021 aside which was a nice surprise) feel like baseball cosmic punishment for that Sale extension, which looked like a car accident in slow motion at the time.

 

1. Yup, lack of production from 1b and OF really sealed the deal on this season. Kiké and Casas getting hurt really disrupted the plan.

2. Xander was good. Story was just ok. Maybe Story can bounce back next season? IDK. He's just a very volatile hitter.

3/5. Hoping on Wacha/Hill/Paxton/Sale was quite the role of the dice. Even Eovaldi comes with lots of health concerns. SP's had great health last year and the luck reversed this year.

4. I agree. The bullpen pieces just weren't there, especially early on in the season. RIP Barnes and Taylor.

[sk7326]

1. Yup, lack of production from 1b and OF really sealed the deal on this season. Kiké and Casas getting hurt really disrupted the plan.

2. Xander was good. Story was just ok. Maybe Story can bounce back next season? IDK. He's just a very volatile hitter.

3/5. Hoping on Wacha/Hill/Paxton/Sale was quite the role of the dice. Even Eovaldi comes with lots of health concerns. SP's had great health last year and the luck reversed this year.

4. I agree. The bullpen pieces just weren't there, especially early on in the season. RIP Barnes and Taylor.

 

Right - I am not saying Bogaerts and Story have been bad ... but the team's offensive expectations were built around them being excellent and that did not materialize, and particularly with the giant sucking sound at 1B and the OF corners it just made it all look worse.

 

I'd also add the Sox have also been a bad defensive team, and have to figure how much of that is talent vs their positioning algorithms

[JDavis76]

Had Bloom signed Perez, instead of Hill, we'd be buyers.

 

Had the bullet missed Lincoln, he would have enjoyed a nice night at the theatre....

[notin]

Had Bloom signed Perez, instead of Hill, we'd be buyers.

 

And then Perez’ inevitable second half collapse would have made us regret that decision…

[notin]

Had the bullet missed Lincoln, he would have enjoyed a nice night at the theatre....

 

Clearly you’ve never seen that play…

[notin]

1. Yup, lack of production from 1b and OF really sealed the deal on this season. Kiké and Casas getting hurt really disrupted the plan.

2. Xander was good. Story was just ok. Maybe Story can bounce back next season? IDK. He's just a very volatile hitter.

3/5. Hoping on Wacha/Hill/Paxton/Sale was quite the role of the dice. Even Eovaldi comes with lots of health concerns. SP's had great health last year and the luck reversed this year.

4. I agree. The bullpen pieces just weren't there, especially early on in the season. RIP Barnes and Taylor.

 

If Barnes had been able to recover from a 10 IP stretch that ended 2021, how would a bullpen of All Star Form Barnes, Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, Brasier, Sawamura, Davis, Strahm, Diekman strike you?

[mvp 78]

And then Perez’ inevitable second half collapse would have made us regret that decision…

 

Depends on how many more times he gets to face Oakland.

 

3 GS

20 IP

2 ER

17 K

6 BB

10 H

 

That's a cool 0.80 WHiP and a 0.90 ERA. It's like plugging a Game Genie into your Nintendo. Unfair.

[mvp 78]

If Barnes had been able to recover from a 10 IP stretch that ended 2021, how would a bullpen of All Star Form Barnes, Houck, Whitlock, Taylor, Brasier, Sawamura, Davis, Strahm, Diekman strike you?

 

Is Taylor healthy again too?

[vegasbob]

Is Taylor healthy again too?

 

Repeated setbacks with the back, halted 2 rehab starts, unknown if possible to return at all.