A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

He is one of the best players in the game today. Signing Story to play second base I think was a good move. Signing him to replace Bogaerts I think is just ridiculously sad.

 

As others have pointed out, Bogey has been hitting in the 3/4 slots all year and only has 7 HR and 39 RBI. How is he one of the best in the game with lousy old school numbers like those?

[cp176]

As others have pointed out, Bogey has been hitting in the 3/4 slots all year and only has 7 HR and 39 RBI. How is he one of the best in the game with lousy old school numbers like those?

 

Oh I don't know Bell, he just is. Also remember though I was very supportive of DD. Can you believe that? I believe that the trades he made were spot on. His longer range signings seem to have worked about as well as the great majority of Bloom's moves have to date. Obviously they didn't cost as much. I hope that they do get things straightened out because unlike some here I do happen to think that the fan base and ballpark revenue will drop greatly. Oh and it has nothing to do with anyone being spoiled. If I want to watch a AAA team compete I can find a much cheaper and more entertaining ballpark. I will say that I have been a fan since 1960 if not a few years before. In the dismal years, I always had at least one or two guys who could perform that I was able to get behind. HMMM - take Bogey and Devers out of this years mix and yup ok - I'll pay attention when Sale and Pivetta pitch.

[mvp 78]

Let's put it this way - given how flaccid the team has looked against the AL East, you have to consider being sellers to some degree.

 

1. The team has a ready made solution for SS next year on the roster already - and 2B seems like it should be easy enough to source.

2. If the Red Sox want to be aggressive sellers, they can offer the best pitcher (Eovaldi), hitter (JD) and overall player (Bogaerts) that would be available for the deadline.

3. I hope Devers gets figured out. I sort of feel the same way I did there as with Mookie (though to a lesser extent since Betts is a better player). Even fully acknowledging that it is a negotiation, if a big market team gets weak kneed about signing a superstar through a superstar's superstar prime, it's tough to see what we are doing here.

 

I'm not sure Story's arm fits SS anymore.

Will Eovaldi really be the best available arm?

If Devers leaves BOS, I hope he breaks the bank and gets to live like Scrooge McDuck.

[notin]

I'm not sure Story's arm fits SS anymore.

Will Eovaldi really be the best available arm?

If Devers leaves BOS, I hope he breaks the bank and gets to live like Scrooge McDuck.

 

Cleveland will reportedly listen on Plesac and Civale, both of whom are better options than Eovaldi. But they presumably will also be more difficult to acquire.

 

Per BTV, Civale and Plesac combined have the same surplus value as Jarren Duran. This actually isn’t so surprising as both starters are entering arbitration eligibility and going to get more expensive, whereas Duran will continue to both flyballs rather cheaply for a couple more years. Obviously Cleveland isn’t making this trade, but there may be framework involving Duran and one of these SPs…

[mvp 78]

Cleveland will reportedly listen on Plesac and Civale, both of whom are better options than Eovaldi. But they presumably will also be more difficult to acquire.

 

Per BTV, Civale and Plesac combined have the same surplus value as Jarren Duran. This actually isn’t so surprising as both starters are entering arbitration eligibility and going to get more expensive, whereas Duran will continue to both flyballs rather cheaply for a couple more years. Obviously Cleveland isn’t making this trade, but there may be framework involving Duran and one of these SPs…

 

I would listen to any and all offers involving Duran.

[notin]

I would listen to any and all offers involving Duran.

 

I am back to considering Duran a trade chip. He won’t get Soto, but a Duran-Civale deal would make me happier…

[mvp 78]

I am back to considering Duran a trade chip. He won’t get Soto, but a Duran-Civale deal would make me happier…

 

Sign me up. To get an MLB arm back for him would be big IMO.

[moonslav59]

Aside from 2 maybe 3 from that list it was a good choice to let them go.

Dodge a huge bullet with Ellsbury.

Pedro Is my all time favorite Sox pitcher but he was never the same after 2004. Would of love to kept him but the best was behind him. He only played one full season after 2004.

Manny - that was a good move to let go

 

They made a mistake on Damon and Lester.

Betts, only time will tell.

 

I know you're being sarcastic but if they lose Bogey it will hurt the fanbase. Specifically how they did it. Signing Story was a dick move. It was a slap in the face to XB. That's like your boss at work hiring a new person and saying oh here's the new guy that is capable of doing your job and we're going to put him working beside you.

 

Devers and XB are both going to get 30 Mil a year. There's no way the Sox have an infield of 80 Mil between 3 players. And they would still have a crap first basemen and s***** outfield.

 

IMO signing Story was a bad move and should have just worked something out with Bogey.

 

Claim will have to do miracle work this off season to get a contending team next year

 

My point was the fanbase was hurt on every loss listed, except Manny.

 

I wasn't trying to claim the choices were wrong, in fact I think almost all were the right calls, considering all the factors involved.

 

We'll get over losing Bogey. I already have.

[moonslav59]

LOL

 

Are you pretending the “take top offer no matter what” list is about anything more than replacing frustratingplayets with other frustrating players? Exactly what elite prospects do you think Hill and Strahm will return?

 

 

A far away prospect or two that maybe does not need to be on the 40, next year. Hell, we got Pivetta and Seabold for Workman and Hembree, so I'm holding out hope, Bloom can make 2-3 of his 9-11 deals work out.

[moonslav59]

LOL

 

Are you pretending the “take top offer no matter what” list is about anything more than replacing frustratingplayets with other frustrating players? Exactly what elite prospects do you think Hill and Strahm will return?

 

I wasn't joking.

 

The joke is holding onto 2 month players and getting nothing.

 

Anything is better than nothing. Bloom just needs to hit on a few of the deals he makes.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure Story's arm fits SS anymore.

Will Eovaldi really be the best available arm?

If Devers leaves BOS, I hope he breaks the bank and gets to live like Scrooge McDuck.

 

I think Eovaldi is clearly the best available "rental starter" for what its worth. There might be some names with more years of control.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox were to actually rebuild, Schreiber is an actual worthwhile trade piece. Bullpen needs are rampant and with fewer sellers he might be the best available name. That he’s clearly having the best year doesn’t hurt.

 

But if you’re giving up 2023, why keep Schreiber? He is having a career year, better than any since A ball. He’s 29, so not likely part of a rebuild.

 

So other than he’s not frustrating today, why keep him? You have younger players than him (and Refsnyder) like Irdero and Dalbec that you’re ready to throw in the towel on…

 

I'm fine with trading Ref & Schreib, if we can get something good.

 

I was hasty placing them on my firm keeper list, but I fell better about them, next year than many others on the 26, right now.

[JDavis76]

Let's put it this way - given how flaccid the team has looked against the AL East, you have to consider being sellers to some degree.

 

1. The team has a ready made solution for SS next year on the roster already - and 2B seems like it should be easy enough to source.

2. If the Red Sox want to be aggressive sellers, they can offer the best pitcher (Eovaldi), hitter (JD) and overall player (Bogaerts) that would be available for the deadline.

3. I hope Devers gets figured out. I sort of feel the same way I did there as with Mookie (though to a lesser extent since Betts is a better player). Even fully acknowledging that it is a negotiation, if a big market team gets weak kneed about signing a superstar through a superstar's superstar prime, it's tough to see what we are doing here.

 

That's not even remotely true.

[sk7326]

That's not even remotely true.

 

I question how avaiable Soto really is btw

[moonslav59]

As others have pointed out, Bogey has been hitting in the 3/4 slots all year and only has 7 HR and 39 RBI. How is he one of the best in the game with lousy old school numbers like those?

 

What surprises me is that it's the old school posters cheering most loudly to bring him back at whatever it might take to keep him, or for more than the metric guys seem to want to fork over.

[mvp 78]

What surprises me is that it's the old school posters cheering most loudly to bring him back at whatever it might take to keep him, or for more than the metric guys seem to want to fork over.

 

What amounts are we really talking about?

 

He's not getting a 10/250 deal.

[sk7326]

What surprises me is that it's the old school posters cheering most loudly to bring him back at whatever it might take to keep him, or for more than the metric guys seem to want to fork over.

 

I am actually lukewarm on keeping Bogaerts - I totally understand letting him get to FA. That said, I think fans might be using Bogaerts as a proxy for the very real question as to whether ownership will ever actually retain great players?

[JDavis76]

I question how avaiable Soto really is btw

 

Being available and whether someone will actually meet the asking price are two different things.

[moonslav59]

What amounts are we really talking about?

 

He's not getting a 10/250 deal.

 

Some have said “whatever it takes.” Others have said $150/6, which I’d be fine with, but I doubt he accepts.

 

I think he gets $200/8 or $170//6 but not with Boston.

[Bellhorn04]

I am actually lukewarm on keeping Bogaerts - I totally understand letting him get to FA. That said, I think fans might be using Bogaerts as a proxy for the very real question as to whether ownership will ever actually retain great players?

 

I think Devers will be the real litmus test on that.

[cp176]

I am actually lukewarm on keeping Bogaerts - I totally understand letting him get to FA. That said, I think fans might be using Bogaerts as a proxy for the very real question as to whether ownership will ever actually retain great players?

 

Once again i think that you are absolutely right.

[cp176]

What surprises me is that it's the old school posters cheering most loudly to bring him back at whatever it might take to keep him, or for more than the metric guys seem to want to fork over.

 

I'm cheering very loudly to bring him back but I haven't seen many "old schoolers" posting bringing him back at all costs. that would obviously be ridiculous. Did someone actually say that? I will agree though I might value him a lot more than the "metric guys". But we old schoolers can't figure out all of this new school metric stuff.

[moonslav59]

I think Devers will be the real litmus test on that.

 

3 is usually the charm, but in this case it might be the camel’s back.

[cp176]

I am actually lukewarm on keeping Bogaerts - I totally understand letting him get to FA. That said, I think fans might be using Bogaerts as a proxy for the very real question as to whether ownership will ever actually retain great players?

 

I certainly do and will continue to question ownerships desire to actually acquire and retain great talent. We shall see.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm cheering very loudly to bring him back but I haven't seen many "old schoolers" posting bringing him back at all costs. that would obviously be ridiculous. Did someone actually say that? I will agree though I might value him a lot more than the "metric guys". But we old schoolers can't figure out all of this new school metric stuff.

 

But you old schoolers usually don't think that 10-12 homers and 50-60 RBI is all that great for a guy looking for top dollar.

[sk7326]

I think Devers will be the real litmus test on that.

 

100%

[moonslav59]

But you old schoolers usually don't think that 10-12 homers and 50-60 RBI is all that great for a guy looking for top dollar.

 

Or even $150/6.

 

They balked at the Story signing at close to that.

[cp176]

But you old schoolers usually don't think that 10-12 homers and 50-60 RBI is all that great for a guy looking for top dollar.

 

Hey you young whippersnapper, you think I don't recollect Mr. Aparichio in his hay day? I like Bogaerts because he speaks at a minimum of 4 languages and is actually intelligent. Plus when it comes to considering what a player has done for us in the past during negotiations, I think that it should be considered. John Henry clearly gets a pass from many here because of what the team has done in the past. I'm very surprised that all things Fenway haven't been reduced in price. Aren't you? Loyalty = 2 way street.

[moonslav59]

Hey you young whippersnapper, you think I don't recollect Mr. Aparichio in his hay day? I like Bogaerts because he speaks at a minimum of 4 languages and is actually intelligent. Plus when it comes to considering what a player has done for us in the past during negotiations, I think that it should be considered. John Henry clearly gets a pass from many here because of what the team has done in the past. I'm very surprised that all things Fenway haven't been reduced in price. Aren't you? Loyalty = 2 way street.

 

More like disloyalty is a two way street, these days.

[moonslav59]

To revisit the 2023 budget framework:

 

Luxury Tax Dollars ($Millions) 31 Players on 40 Man, now

 

SP

25.6 Sale

8.5 Pivetta (Arb 2 of 3)

.72 Winckowski (pre Arb)

.72 Crawford (pre Arb)

.72 Mata (pre Arb)

.72 Bello (pre Arb)

minor Seabold (pre Arb)

minor Groome (pre Arb)

 

RP

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

3.5 Diekman (if we can't trade him, now or this winter)

1.5 Brasier (Arb 3 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

1.1 Taylor (Arb 2 of 4)

1.1 Davis (Arb 1 of 3- no options remaining)

.80 DHern (Arb 1 of 3)

.73 Houck (pre Arb)

.73 Schreiber (pre Arb)

minor Danish (pre Arb)

minor P Valdez (pre Arb)

minor K Ort (pre Arb)

 

C

.72 Wong (pre Arb)

.72 R Hernandez (pre Arb)

 

1B

~1.0 Cordero (Arb 2 of 3)

.73 Dalbec (pre Arb)

 

2B

23.3 Story

1.3 Arroyo (Arb 2 of 3, if he's not traded or DFA'd by '23)

 

3B

~25 Devers (Arb 3 of 3)

 

SS

.72 Downs (pre Arb)

 

LF

~6.0M Verdugo (Arb 2 of 3)

 

CF

.72 Duran (pre Arb)

 

RF

~1.5 Refsnyder (Arb 2 of 3)

 

 

That's about $122M for 31 players. Add a few $Million for the other 9M combined and $16M for player benefits, and we'll be around $140M before spending a dime on additions.

 

To get to the threshold, we could spend $92M.

 

For those who want us to extend or re-sign Bogey and Devers, here's how that might look, minimum:

 

$26 x 5 Bogey

$29 x 7 Devers (add $4M to projected arb cost)

 

That's $55M. If it's true we are re-setting after this season, then that leaves about $51M to fill all the rest of the slots not filled by in system players.

 

Let's play best case scenario and figure Casas can play 1B, next year, and one young starter can take Hill's 5 starter slot. We need to fill the 1/2 slot (Nate) and the 2/3 slot (Wacha), unless you think our 5 man rotation will be Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Winckowski and Crawford/Bello/Mata (or Whitlock). We also need a catcher and CF and RF, unless you want to go all year with Wong/RHern at catcher, or Refsnyder/Duran in RF and CF FT. And, who DH'es? Dalbec/Cordero? LOL!!!

 

How can $36M fill

 

SP1

SP2

C

1B

CF

RF

DH

 

Unless Henry opens the wallet, again, what good does it do to sign Bogey? We ain't winning by bringing the same team back minus JD, Nate, Wacha, Hill, Kike, Vaz and Strahm, or by filling all their shoes with $36M.

 

Edited July 28, 2022 by moonslav59