How much would you offer Devers?

[notin]

As for Betts, since he signed in LA during the pandemic summer for around the same AAV he turned down in Boston, we'll never know if he wasn't traded if he'd still be here today.

 

Maybe Bloom and Co. are waiting to see Boras' demands for X and then what he has to settle for on the market, before making a legitimate offer that can keep Devers here.

 

In other words, if Bogey doesn't get his respect -- $30M AAV -- then that may be the ceiling the Sox can reasonably offer the younger Rafey.

 

Then again, if Bogey gets his $30, then the Sox may figure Devers will fetch at least $35... which they may decide is too rich, at which point they'll deal him.

 

And this is the issue

 

What are Devers’ and Bogaerts’ demands? Have they even hinted, beyond Devers’ (agent’s) comment that the Sox were about $100 mill short?

[Bellhorn04]

And this is the issue

 

What are Devers’ and Bogaerts’ demands? Have they even hinted, beyond Devers’ (agent’s) comment that the Sox were about $100 mill short?

 

A reasonable guess on Devers would be $200 mill vs. $300 mill.

[notin]

But none of us believe Boras won't demand at least that, comparing X to all the other guys that have exceeded that. That's why most of us know he's as good as gone.

 

And why Story was likely brought in.

 

While a lot of people found the 4 year $90mill offer insulting (and it was), how many think the Sox should concede even if Bogaerts wants 8 years $240mill?

[notin]

A reasonable guess on Devers would be $200 mill vs. $300 mill.

 

Any idea on years? Your guess is probably close on cash..

[Bellhorn04]

Any idea on years? Your guess is probably close on cash..

 

I'll play - 8 * $25 offered, 10 * $30 asked.

[moonslav59]

And why Story was likely brought in.

 

While a lot of people found the 4 year $90mill offer insulting (and it was), how many think the Sox should concede even if Bogaerts wants 8 years $240mill?

 

I'd cringe at $200M/8 for Bogey more than I'd cringe at $300M/10 for Devers.

 

I would never go $240M/8 for Bogey. I wouldn't even go $240M/10 for him, now that we have Story.

[moonslav59]

I'll play - 8 * $25 offered, 10 * $30 asked.

 

Sounds about right, but I think the Sox will be more willing to find a compromise number with Devers than Bogey. Maybe $27M x 9 for Devers. Maybe $25M x 6 for Bogey.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds about right, but I think the Sox will be more willing to find a compromise number with Devers than Bogey. Maybe $27M x 9 for Devers. Maybe $25M x 6 for Bogey.

 

And reality check says if both happen, we'll be paying 3 infielders a total of $75 mill a year, with one of them out of position. Does that make sense?

[notin]

I'll play - 8 * $25 offered, 10 * $30 asked.

 

 

That sounds more reasonable. And that’s the range I peg for Devers. With those numbers, hopefully something can get worked out..

[Old Red]

Renfroe was a better deal, but he didn’t outhit Betts using any metric…

 

More HR, and RBI is good enough for me. I don’t use metrics except if they are on paper in the bathroom.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sounds about right, but I think the Sox will be more willing to find a compromise number with Devers than Bogey. Maybe $27M x 9 for Devers. Maybe $25M x 6 for Bogey.

 

If the Sox don't offer X at least a higher AAV than Story... not only would that be insulting to a clearly better player and homegrown franchise face, but it would probably end any negotiations.

 

As for Rafey -- he knows, his agents know, and we all know he's worth at least top of the market Rendon rate for third basemen. Right now.

[Old Red]

If you are buying out his last arb year, Devers would be only 33 his last year of the deal. Do you really doubt his value at ages 34, 35 and maybe 36, so much that you would not pay him $20M a year for those 2 or 3 years. Why not add $40M and 2 years to your offer and make it $280M/10?

 

Age 35 is not all that past prime, and Devers is the kind of pure hitter that should age well, even if just as a DH or 1Bman at that point in his career.

 

IMO, I'd go even farther and try to get him to take max money while lowering the AVV. I might start at $300M/12, then offer $300M/11 and finally settle on $300M/10.

 

$300M/10 is certainly pushing the envelope on the last 2-3 years of the deal, but to me, he's worth more than $30M a year for the first 5-7 years of the deal. Hie improved defense has stepped up my plea...

 

Devers Forevers!

 

 

Since everyone like prospects/suspects so much Raffy should have been traded last year, and got some more since the theory on here is the Sox are not going all in to win this year. Once again wasting a year of Bogey, Raffy, and JD. Smart baseball sense.

[notin]

Since everyone like prospects/suspects so much Raffy should have been traded last year, and got some more since the theory on here is the Sox are not going all in to win this year. Once again wasting a year of Bogey, Raffy, and JD. Smart baseball sense.

 

The theory that the Sox are not trying this year is just that - a theory.

 

To me it looks like the Sox are playing a balancing act of trying to be competitive now and in the future…

[Bellhorn04]

More HR, and RBI is good enough for me. I don’t use metrics except if they are on paper in the bathroom.

 

All well and good, but you don't need metrics to see that Betts takes a lot more walks than Renfroe and has vastly more speed and baserunning skills, or that he is a vastly superior fielder.

[Bellhorn04]

Since everyone like prospects/suspects so much Raffy should have been traded last year, and got some more since the theory on here is the Sox are not going all in to win this year. Once again wasting a year of Bogey, Raffy, and JD. Smart baseball sense.

 

In reality, not one team in baseball goes as "all in to win" as they possibly could. Not even the Dodgers. They let Seager and Jansen go. Wouldn't they be an even better team with those two? Of course they would.

[Old Red]

All well and good, but you don't need metrics to see that Betts takes a lot more walks than Renfroe and has vastly more speed and baserunning skills, or that he is a vastly superior fielder.

 

I’m very well aware that Betts has more speed, and a great OF, but I still don’t think he was a $30M man last year, and would not want to pay him for 11 more years.

[notin]

More HR, and RBI is good enough for me. I don’t use metrics except if they are on paper in the bathroom.

 

So comparing RBI for a middle of the order hitter to a leadoff hitter makes sense to you?

 

Did you also think Joe Carter was a better hitter than Tony Gwynn?

[Old Red]

In reality, not one team in baseball goes as "all in to win" as they possibly could. Not even the Dodgers. They let Seager and Jansen go. Wouldn't they be an even better team with those two? Of course they would.

 

All I’m saying is that Raffy’s , and possibly Bogey’, JD’s, and Evo’s last years are just being wasted in the process. At the moment I could care less what happen to year, and beyond especially with Bloom in charge.

[Old Red]

So comparing RBI for a middle of the order hitter to a leadoff hitter makes sense to you?

 

Did you also think Joe Carter was a better hitter than Tony Gwynn?

 

You have your stats, and I have mine, and I don’t know why it bothers so many. I’m not into the nerd world of metrics, and it doesn’t bother me to those who are. I just don’t pay any attention to any of it, and that is not a bad thing to me. I don’t believe metrics has made the game better, and I can do without, but I accept the fact that some can’t.

[Old Red]

So comparing RBI for a middle of the order hitter to a leadoff hitter makes sense to you?

 

Did you also think Joe Carter was a better hitter than Tony Gwynn?

 

Do you want Boggs , or Yaz? I’ll take Yaz.

[notin]

Do you want Boggs , or Yaz? I’ll take Yaz.

 

Yaz was not a sub-.800 OPS guy like Renfroe. He had power, but he was also a complete hitter. Dave Kingman always had more RBIs than Rod Carew. Was Kingman better?

[notin]

You have your stats, and I have mine, and I don’t know why it bothers so many. I’m not into the nerd world of metrics, and it doesn’t bother me to those who are. I just don’t pay any attention to any of it, and that is not a bad thing to me. I don’t believe metrics has made the game better, and I can do without, but I accept the fact that some can’t.

 

 

But you also should accept the fact that RBIs are a lousy measure of a player’s talent since they depend heavily on someone else getting on base. Joe Carter was my first example. He was a lousy hitter who drove in 120 runs for the Padres one year. He didn’t drive in that many runs because of elite talent; he did it because he batted behind two Hall of Famers (Gwynn and Roberto Alomar) who were always on base. Put him behind two average hitters, and his RBIs could have easily been less than 70. Would that mean he was a less talented hitter? Because of who hit in front of him…

[Old Red]

But you also should accept the fact that RBIs are a lousy measure of a player’s talent since they depend heavily on someone else getting on base. Joe Carter was my first example. He was a lousy hitter who drove in 120 runs for the Padres one year. He didn’t drive in that many runs because of elite talent; he did it because he batted behind two Hall of Famers (Gwynn and Roberto Alomar) who were always on base. Put him behind two average hitters, and his RBIs could have easily been less than 70. Would that mean he was a less talented hitter? Because of who hit in front of him…

 

Lousy to you, and not to me, but I do know enough to go deeper than just an RBI to see who’s batting in front of somebody. Not everyone batting in Renfroe’s position last year still wouldn’t have had 96 RBI, or hit 30+ bombs. Some would have had more.

[Bellhorn04]

But you also should accept the fact that RBIs are a lousy measure of a player’s talent since they depend heavily on someone else getting on base. Joe Carter was my first example. He was a lousy hitter who drove in 120 runs for the Padres one year. He didn’t drive in that many runs because of elite talent; he did it because he batted behind two Hall of Famers (Gwynn and Roberto Alomar) who were always on base. Put him behind two average hitters, and his RBIs could have easily been less than 70. Would that mean he was a less talented hitter? Because of who hit in front of him…

 

You can't win against Ribbiemetrics.

[Jasonbay44]

Mookie and Renfroe aren’t even in the same universe of players. If you think RBI and Homers are all that matters, I really don’t know what to tell you. You just have loved Khris Davis and thought he was a perennial MVP candidate…

[Old Red]

Yaz was not a sub-.800 OPS guy like Renfroe. He had power, but he was also a complete hitter. Dave Kingman always had more RBIs than Rod Carew. Was Kingman better?

 

We can do this all day, but switch Kingman, and Carew in the batting order, and Carew wouldn’t have the same amount of RBI even if you had a Carew clone leading off. Different hitters do different things, but if Mookie career’s averages had been like last year I doubt he would have gotten the contract he got from the Dodgers.

[Bellhorn04]

Mookie and Renfroe aren’t even in the same universe of players. If you think RBI and Homers are all that matters, I really don’t know what to tell you. You just have loved Khris Davis and thought he was a perennial MVP candidate…

 

Looking at Davis's numbers, he had a great run from ages 27-30, and then completely lost it.

[Bellhorn04]

We can do this all day, but switch Kingman, and Carew in the batting order, and Carew wouldn’t have the same amount of RBI even if you had a Carew clone leading off. Different hitters do different things, but if Mookie career’s averages had been like last year I doubt he would have gotten the contract he got from the Dodgers.

 

Betts missed 40 games last year with an assortment of injuries. He still had 23 HR's and 29 doubles and an .854 OPS.

 

He looks right back on form this year.

[Old Red]

Mookie and Renfroe aren’t even in the same universe of players. If you think RBI and Homers are all that matters, I really don’t know what to tell you. You just have loved Khris Davis and thought he was a perennial MVP candidate…

 

Where did anyone say RBI, and HR are all that matters, but isn’t that’s what the big contracts are payed for? Over analyzing always gets someone to their opinion that might not be someone else’s.

[Bellhorn04]

Where did anyone say RBI, and HR are all that matters, but isn’t that’s what the big contracts are payed for? Over analyzing always gets someone to their opinion that might not be someone else’s.

 

Do you think Betts got his contract based on RBI's? He only had 80 in 2018 and 80 in 2019.