A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[moonslav59]

Maybe Darwinzon Hernandez to 60 Day IL?

 

This is most likely, even if he doesn't need 60 days on the IL. He's not going to be called up in the next 60 days.

[Bellhorn04]

Patience with Bobby D. seems to be paying off again.

[moonslav59]

Patience with Bobby D. seems to be paying off again.

 

Maybe he's just more of a warm weather batter.

[notin]

Maybe Darwinzon Hernandez to 60 Day IL?

 

Arauz has been DFAd

[notin]

Maybe he's just more of a warm weather batter.

 

 

Well, college ball in Arizona…

[harmony]

Well, college ball in Arizona…

... where Seattle native Bobby Dalbec said his favorite professional teams were the Seattle Mariners, Seattle Seahawks and Oklahoma City (Seattle Supersonic) Thunder:

 

https://arizonawildcats.com/sports/baseball/roster/bobby-dalbec/2353

[Nick]

Pivoting a bit. If Xander extension doesn't work out, how about going for Cubs' Contreras during off season?

 

Is he too good of offensive catcher to pass on? Here's our chance to grab one.

 

We need several of our young guns to latch onto starting rotation so that we can spend money elsewhere.

 

Budget, budget, budget.....

 

I'm dreaming.......

 

JD resigns for $18M, saving $4M that will be used to pay Whitlock's new contract.

 

Xander signs for $200M/6 years, average annual pay of $33.333M (should make him happy). His increase is covered by Wacha/Hill contracts. (2 starters need to be replaced)

 

Sign Contreras for $20M, $9M coming from our current catchers and other $11M from expiration of Price's $16M dead contract. ($5M left over).

 

Dever's year three arbitration raise, I'm guess $12M raise to be covered by Eovaldi's $17M. ($5M left over).

 

Use $10M left over to cover other arbitration raises.

 

Position Players

C. Contreras

1B Dalbec

2B Story

3B Devers

SS Xander

LF Verdugo

CF Kike/Duran

RF JBJ/Cordero

DH JD

 

Starting Pitching

1 Eovaldi

2 Pivetta

3 Whitlock

4 Paxton

5. Winckowski/Seabold/Matta/Bello/

 

We just need additional $10M-$12M to sign Devers to a long term deal to take effect for 2024 season.

 

I'm dreaming.......

[Larry Cook]

Story has been doing really well at second base. If bogey leaves, maybe we sign turner or Swanson as the starting shortstop.

[moonslav59]

Pivoting a bit. If Xander extension doesn't work out, how about going for Cubs' Contreras during off season?

 

Is he too good of offensive catcher to pass on? Here's our chance to grab one.

 

We need several of our young guns to latch onto starting rotation so that we can spend money elsewhere.

 

Budget, budget, budget.....

 

I'm dreaming.......

 

JD resigns for $18M, saving $4M that will be used to pay Whitlock's new contract.

 

Xander signs for $200M/6 years, average annual pay of $33.333M (should make him happy). His increase is covered by Wacha/Hill contracts. (2 starters need to be replaced)

 

Sign Contreras for $20M, $9M coming from our current catchers and other $11M from expiration of Price's $16M dead contract. ($5M left over).

 

Dever's year three arbitration raise, I'm guess $12M raise to be covered by Eovaldi's $17M. ($5M left over).

 

Use $10M left over to cover other arbitration raises.

 

Position Players

C. Contreras

1B Dalbec

2B Story

3B Devers

SS Xander

LF Verdugo

CF Kike/Duran

RF JBJ/Cordero

DH JD

 

Starting Pitching

1 Eovaldi

2 Pivetta

3 Whitlock

4 Paxton

5. Winckowski/Seabold/Matta/Bello/

 

We just need additional $10M-$12M to sign Devers to a long term deal to take effect for 2024 season.

 

I'm dreaming.......

 

I'm not sure we spend a big chunk of our winter spending budget on a catcher. (I think we'll trade for one- like we tried to do on Stallings.)

 

Contreras turns 31, next season. Most catchers do not age well, but enough do. Hard to know if Contreras is in the age well category.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not sure we spend a big chunk of our winter spending budget on a catcher. (I think we'll trade for one- like we tried to do on Stallings.)

 

Contreras turns 31, next season. Most catchers do not age well, but enough do. Hard to know if Contreras is in the age well category.

 

 

Stallings, BTW, has a .526 OPS and a bWAR of -0.5.

[notin]

Stallings, BTW, has a .526 OPS and a bWAR of -0.5.

 

He was not being pursued for his bat…

[notin]

I'm not sure we spend a big chunk of our winter spending budget on a catcher. (I think we'll trade for one- like we tried to do on Stallings.)

 

Contreras turns 31, next season. Most catchers do not age well, but enough do. Hard to know if Contreras is in the age well category.

 

 

 

If there’s nowhere for him to play, they’ll probably just trade Duran for a catcher…

[moonslav59]

Stallings, BTW, has a .526 OPS and a bWAR of -0.5.

 

Yes, I know, but he's supposed to be one of baseball's best defensive catchers and "pitcher whisperer."

 

Oakland is loaded with young catchers.

 

I'd love to see us trade for Montas & Langeliers, but I doubt they agree to these BTV approved trades:

 

37.0 Montas (1.6 yrs)

27.9 Langeliers (6 yrs)

-5.0 Picotty (0.6 yrs) salary dump/RH'd OF'er

(59.9 Total)

 

for

 

48.8 Casas

6.8 Downs

4.6 Winckowski

(60.4 Total)

 

or

37.7 Yorke

14.5 Duran

6.6 Gonzalez

1.1 Ward

(59.9 Total)

Edited June 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If there’s nowhere for him to play, they’ll probably just trade Duran for a catcher…

 

We could also stash Duran in LF and trade Verdugo, since they don't seem to want him in CF or RF, and his arbs will start becoming more costly.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

We could also stash Duran in LF and trade Verdugo, since they don't seem to want him in CF or RF, and his arbs will start becoming more costly.

 

Verdugo just doesn't fit here anymore with Duran coming up and needing to play LF. Duran will be cheaper, this is a way for the Red Sox to save some money. Verdugo has been so bad--is it possible they could simply not offer him a contract? Or do they pay his arbitration cost and trade him? If he doesn't start hitting this year, how many teams will even want Verdugo for his arbitration price?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Story has been doing really well at second base. If bogey leaves, maybe we sign turner or Swanson as the starting shortstop.

 

Signing Swanson to replace Bogaerts would be a great idea. Save money and improve the defense.

[a700hitter]

Signing Swanson to replace Bogaerts would be a great idea. Save money and improve the defense.

It would be a huge step down from Bogaerts in every other way.

[Nick]

We could also stash Duran in LF and trade Verdugo, since they don't seem to want him in CF or RF, and his arbs will start becoming more costly.

 

Verdugo has not 'stepped up' to another level as some of us hoped for......he's a good trade candidate. Recycling him with Duran gets my vote. I love seeing Duran's speed on the field. He just needs to make contact and stay away from fly balls.

[moonslav59]

It would be a huge step down from Bogaerts in every other way.

 

Agreed, but I guess the hope would be to use the savings to upgrade the OF and pen.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo has not 'stepped up' to another level as some of us hoped for......he's a good trade candidate. Recycling him with Duran gets my vote. I love seeing Duran's speed on the field. He just needs to make contact and stay away from fly balls.

 

His trade value has taken a hit, too, though, so trading when his stock is low might be a mistake. Trading Duran might net a better return.

 

There is still time for Verdugo to bring his value back up.

[notin]

Signing Swanson to replace Bogaerts would be a great idea. Save money and improve the defense.

 

If the Sox don’t bring back Bogaerts, we already know who the starting shortstop will be…

[notin]

Verdugo just doesn't fit here anymore with Duran coming up and needing to play LF. Duran will be cheaper, this is a way for the Red Sox to save some money. Verdugo has been so bad--is it possible they could simply not offer him a contract? Or do they pay his arbitration cost and trade him? If he doesn't start hitting this year, how many teams will even want Verdugo for his arbitration price?

 

 

Verdugo is in apparently among the top quarter for all MLB hitters for numerous metrics, but he hasn’t been lucky. Technically, he’s been Shift-Bitten. This means next season - if he continues to make this type of contact - he should be much improved in the numbers we all look at…

[moonslav59]

If the Sox don’t bring back Bogaerts, we already know who the starting shortstop will be…

 

I'm not so sure, anymore, but if Story's arm is fine, I don't see why we'd not use him at SS.

 

I guess it might depend on who is the best signing or addition to the middle IF. I could see us signing Swanson or a 2Bman.

 

I still feel Bogey is as good as gone, and no, that does not make me happy, but in the context of what this team has going forward, and what we need, and how much we might have tp spend, this coming winter on numerous gaping holes, I just don't see us spending $27+M a year on a SS who is not a plus defender.

 

I think Bloom and Cora (rightfully) value defense, especially at key positions. It's why they signed Story and traded for JBJ. It's why Duran has not been given a longer look. It's why Verdugo has rarely played anywhere but LF. It's why we tried to trade for Stalling at catcher. It's why we added Iggy and Shaw, last summer. Since the Renfroe signing over a year ago, it's hard to find any choices or moves we've made that made our defense worse, except maybe playing Cordero at 1B and bring Vaz back at $7M.

 

I hope we keep Devers, but if $300M/10 is what it takes, I doubt Henry and Bloom do it.

 

I think we will spend big, this winter, but maybe nothing larger or longer than what Story got. That will limit the quality of players we get, but we can stll get some fine players, and maybe more of them, instead of relying on just 2-4 top studs.

 

I'm not sure it's a winning strategy. It seems like the 4 winning Sox teams of the past always relied on 2-3 mega stud hitters and 2-3 solid SP'ers and a closer.

 

Again, this winter will be Bloom's defining moment.

[moonslav59]

Verdugo is in apparently among the top quarter for all MLB hitters for numerous metrics, but he hasn’t been lucky. Technically, he’s been Shift-Bitten. This means next season - if he continues to make this type of contact - he should be much improved in the numbers we all look at…

 

Good points, and I'm sure Bloom & Cora are aware of this.

 

I've always felt Duran would be traded, due to the organizations focus on defense. If we can trade Renfroe for JBJ and prospects, why hold onto Duran?

 

I'm not sure what Duran's trade value is, right now. I'm not sure anyone knows, but I have to think one GM values him enough to offer us a useful piece. Maybe a larger package can get us a solid piece at an area we need more than LF/DH.

[notin]

Good points, and I'm sure Bloom & Cora are aware of this.

 

I've always felt Duran would be traded, due to the organizations focus on defense. If we can trade Renfroe for JBJ and prospects, why hold onto Duran?

 

I'm not sure what Duran's trade value is, right now. I'm not sure anyone knows, but I have to think one GM values him enough to offer us a useful piece. Maybe a larger package can get us a solid piece at an area we need more than LF/DH.

 

I’m calling it now. Duran to SD for C Luis Campusano.

 

Campusano - won the Sox reportedly wanted in the Betts talks a couple years back - is sort of in the same boat as Duran. Both have rankings in their past, success at all levels, and are buried behind vets neither team wants to move. Plus the Sox need a catcher and the Padres need OF help (and position players who aren’t shortstops).

 

BTV has Campusano with a surplus value of $17.5 mill and Duran with $14.8 mill. So is not ridiculous by their standards.

 

It makes so much sense it will clearly never happen…

[moonslav59]

I’m calling it now. Duran to SD for C Luis Campusano.

 

Campusano - won the Sox reportedly wanted in the Betts talks a couple years back - is sort of in the same boat as Duran. Both have rankings in their past, success at all levels, and are buried behind vets neither team wants to move. Plus the Sox need a catcher and the Padres need OF help (and position players who aren’t shortstops).

 

BTV has Campusano with a surplus value of $17.5 mill and Duran with $14.8 mill. So is not ridiculous by their standards.

 

It makes so much sense it will clearly never happen…

 

I see BTV has Campusano at +29.1. I think we could also throw in someone like Downs and Seabold/Winckowski, and maybe that gets SD to agree.

 

I know we've talked about Oakland as a possible source of young catching talent, but they are no necessarily looking at someone like Duran as an immediate need.

 

BTV accepted this trade:

 

Duran, Downs & Ward

 

for

 

Campusano, Myers & $4M cash

[notin]

I see BTV has Campusano at +29.1. I think we could also throw in someone like Downs and Seabold/Winckowski, and maybe that gets SD to agree.

 

I know we've talked about Oakland as a possible source of young catching talent, but they are no necessarily looking at someone like Duran as an immediate need.

 

BTV accepted this trade:

 

Duran, Downs & Ward

 

for

 

Campusano, Myers & $4M cash

 

Wow he got bumped back up in value. Last I looked he was at 17.5, but back then his OPS was also .345. He must have started hitting, but I do think that should have been expected to some degree…

[moonslav59]

A Campusano trade would most likely be made next winter, unless other useful players are included.

 

Now, if SD really wanted Duran for the OF, now, maybe they'd be more likely to make the trade, soon.

 

[Larry Cook]

Albies got hurt. Maybe we could move arroyo to atlanta for a decent prospect.

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Red Sox pitchers own an MLB-best 1.79 ERA since May 31. In the last 75 years, that is the team’s 5th-lowest ERA over any 14-game stretch.

 

Apr. 8-25, 1988 (1.57)

Aug. 22-31, 1967 (1.74)

July 29-Aug. 12, 1962 (1.76)

Apr. 4-18, 2001 (1.78)

May 31-June 15, 2022 (1.79)