A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[notin]

I'd do Groome and Downs for Bell.

 

I'd do Groome, Downs and Decker for Abreu

 

I like my Downs/Decker trade for Cron better

 

Brandon Walter for Bell…

[Kimmi]

I'm not convinced this team has totally sworn off large and long deals, forever.

 

I see the logic in that philosophy, but sometimes biting the bullet is needed.

 

To me, if it's not for Devers, I can't see it being anyone else, at least for a while.

 

I'm wondering if the Story deal is as large and long as they dare go.

 

The Sox might go for a longer deal than the Story deal. Heck, they might even bite the bullet and sign Devers to a $300M, 10 year deal, though I would be strongly against that. If the Sox are going to make a big commitment to any player, it should be Devers, IMO.

[Kimmi]

I was just asking for thrice: Devers/Xander/Betts. I guess Xander/Devers is the compromise. I'll shut up forever about Betts if they keep both.

 

The only way we sign either one (perhaps both) is if they are willing to leave some money on the table. The Sox won't pay them what they are likely to get in FA. I'm hoping that both players want to stay in Boston badly enough to take a discount. I'm not saying that either one should be disrespected or take a low ball offer, but they have to be willing to take less money than what the highest FA offer will likely be.

[Kimmi]

Why? They are the Boston Red Sox. They should be able to keep both of them. They aren't hurting for cash. It's whether they want to or not. It's not if they are "able to."

 

The Sox are "able" to keep whoever they want. They could afford a $500M payroll if they wanted. That's not the way things work though, no matter how much money an owner has.

[Kimmi]

He was brought in to turn the Red Sox into the Dodgers, a sustainable top of the line organization that has a large budget and great farm system. When you have a high budget, you still have room for large contracts. You just use your farm to supplement your other holes rather than $$$ on middling FA talent like Diekman and other dreck.

 

Bloom's focus to this point has been more on the long term goal, strengthening the farm system, more so than it's been on the present. Not to say that he hasn't given us contending teams for the present at the same time. But with that being the case, perhaps once he has the farm system where it is at a sustainable level, he will be more willing to spend on a big contract.

 

With all that being said, I disagree with the idea that you sign several big contracts and that you use your farm to supplement the holes. You build your core with your farm system, and you use free agency to supplement the holes. The large contracts should be very few and far between. Those large contracts only become viable if you have several cost-controlled players to offset them.

[Kimmi]

Out of curiosity, I have to ask what you think is a fair contract for Devers?

 

My idea of fair is somewhere around $240M for 8 years. That is what I would offer this offseason, meaning that the contract includes buying out his last year of control. Will that be enough? Probably not.

 

For Xander, I'd go a little better than the Story contract. Maybe $27M a year for 5 years, with and option or two. That probably won't get it done either.

[Kimmi]

Handing the pen and the contract over to Devers.

 

Sometimes, you scare me.

[mvp 78]

Brandon Walter for Bell…

 

Bell is a bad 1b. I'd trade for Cron.

[mvp 78]

Bloom's focus to this point has been more on the long term goal, strengthening the farm system, more so than it's been on the present. Not to say that he hasn't given us contending teams for the present at the same time. But with that being the case, perhaps once he has the farm system where it is at a sustainable level, he will be more willing to spend on a big contract.

 

With all that being said, I disagree with the idea that you sign several big contracts and that you use your farm to supplement the holes. You build your core with your farm system, and you use free agency to supplement the holes. The large contracts should be very few and far between. Those large contracts only become viable if you have several cost-controlled players to offset them.

Right, with Betts/Raffy/Xander. That's the core.

[Kimmi]

Right, with Betts/Raffy/Xander. That's the core.

 

Yes, and they've been a fine core. Then sadly, there will likely come a time when you need to let them walk. And you have a new core.

[mvp 78]

Yes, and they've been a fine core. Then sadly, there will likely come a time when you need to let them walk. And you have a new core.

 

Yeah, about 10 years from now.

[oldtimer]

The Sox might go for a longer deal than the Story deal. Heck, they might even bite the bullet and sign Devers to a $300M, 10 year deal, though I would be strongly against that. If the Sox are going to make a big commitment to any player, it should be Devers, IMO.

 

I agree that Devers should be the number 1 target. I also dislike contracts spanning as long at 10 years, but it may take that to keep Devers. He is still just approaching his prime years so if we don't do it for him, who would we ever do it for?

[oldtimer]

My idea of fair is somewhere around $240M for 8 years. That is what I would offer this offseason, meaning that the contract includes buying out his last year of control. Will that be enough? Probably not.

 

For Xander, I'd go a little better than the Story contract. Maybe $27M a year for 5 years, with and option or two. That probably won't get it done either.

 

I mentioned the front office coming up with some sort of pyramid scheme for paying players. Pay your best up the middle players and two starting pitchers the most and then scaling down payments based upon the criticality of position. it is also clear that such a scheme requires a regular influx of prospects such that the budget for salary average stays below the penalty free number. Some flexibility is required but there should be a long term plan to optimize team performance year to year. Do Devers at $30M and Bogey at $27 fit that scenario? There is also the risk analysis involved in any business plan and long term commitments have the greatest associated risk. We already have Sale signed at big bucks for the end of a long term contract. To date that signing has not worked to the team's interest. Let's hope he can return and give us at least some value for the large contract we gave His contract just demonstrates how risky things can get.

[moonslav59]

Why would the Orioles - 2 games out of a wild card slot - consider selling?

 

Say that again in 3 weeks,

[Bellhorn04]

Say that again in 3 weeks,

 

They're playing pretty well.

[moonslav59]

Brandon Walter for Bell…

 

I don't think it will take that much, despite BTV's opinion.

 

I'd like to see us part with 2-3 players that will be on the 40 man roster/Rule 5 bubble, this winter. We have ab out 10 players for about 6-7 slots, depending on how many FAs we add or re-sign.

 

DHern

PValdez

JGroome

Seabold

Crawford

Downs

Danish

Cordero

Ort

 

Rule 5 Bubbles:

Kole Cottam

Durbin Feltman

Gilberto Jimenez

Jake Thompson

Eddison Paulino

 

Rule 5 Probably don't need to protect:

Angel Bastardo

Brainer Bonaci (was he misted on the "names" thread?)

Cameron Cannon

Nick Decker

Ryan Fitzgerald

Devlin Granberg

David Hamilton

Brandon Howlett

Christian Koss

Victor Santos

Noah Song

T Ward

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Every time I see Brasier I die a little. Sale was throwing BB's, didn't expect that velocity on his fastball. So short term loss but perhaps a long term win last night.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, about 10 years from now.

 

The goal is to build a strong and sustainable farm so that there are always players ready to take over for leaving free agents. There should not be a 10 year gap if the farm is strong.

[Kimmi]

I agree that Devers should be the number 1 target. I also dislike contracts spanning as long at 10 years, but it may take that to keep Devers. He is still just approaching his prime years so if we don't do it for him, who would we ever do it for?

 

I don't disagree with this. It will likely take 10 years to keep Devers. I'm not sure the Sox will do that, but if you're going to do it, he's the guy. I am against going that long on Devers, but at the same time, if the Sox did give Devers that kind of contract, I would be very happy to have him on the team for a long time.

[Kimmi]

I mentioned the front office coming up with some sort of pyramid scheme for paying players. Pay your best up the middle players and two starting pitchers the most and then scaling down payments based upon the criticality of position. it is also clear that such a scheme requires a regular influx of prospects such that the budget for salary average stays below the penalty free number. Some flexibility is required but there should be a long term plan to optimize team performance year to year. Do Devers at $30M and Bogey at $27 fit that scenario? There is also the risk analysis involved in any business plan and long term commitments have the greatest associated risk. We already have Sale signed at big bucks for the end of a long term contract. To date that signing has not worked to the team's interest. Let's hope he can return and give us at least some value for the large contract we gave His contract just demonstrates how risky things can get.

 

Good post Oldtimer. Even the thought of giving Devers and Bogaerts those types of contracts makes me cringe a little, but I concede that anything less than that would feel like lowball offers. Philosophically, I think you and I are on the same page when it comes to big contracts and long term planning.

[Kimmi]

Say that again in 3 weeks,

 

A lot can happen in 3 weeks. Right now they are looking pretty good, as are the Mariners. The Sox are struggling. We'll see how things look in 3 weeks.

[Kimmi]

Every time I see Brasier I die a little. Sale was throwing BB's' date=' didn't expect that velocity on his fastball. So short term loss but perhaps a long term win last night.[/quote']

 

In the bigger picture, you have to walk away feeling good about the way Sale looked. Outside of that, last night's game was a debacle. We handed that game to the Rays on a silver platter.

 

I just hope Story is okay. Hand injuries can be tricky and pesky. Our defense cannot afford that kind of hit.

[moonslav59]

I don't disagree with this. It will likely take 10 years to keep Devers. I'm not sure the Sox will do that, but if you're going to do it, he's the guy. I am against going that long on Devers, but at the same time, if the Sox did give Devers that kind of contract, I would be very happy to have him on the team for a long time.

 

At Devers age, a 10 year deal is not the same as one for say, Bogey.

 

Sweeten the pie with a nice signing bonus and or lower the AVV by adding another year.

[Kimmi]

At Devers age, a 10 year deal is not the same as one for say, Bogey.

 

Sweeten the pie with a nice signing bonus and or lower the AVV by adding another year.

 

Yikes. Sometimes, you scare me.

[moonslav59]

Yikes. Sometimes, you scare me.

 

Losing Devers scares the hell out of me!

 

He's a unique talent.

There is no "book on him."

He's just entering peak prime, now.

He's a Yankee killer. (I know that's your soft spot.)

 

Instead of $290M/10, just go $300M/11.

[Bellhorn04]

5 straight losses to the Rays, outscored 32-13. Yikes.

 

These last 3 games prove that there's no such thing as momentum in MLB. The Sox came into this series off two comeback wins over the Yankees. The Rays came in off getting swept by the Reds.

[mvp 78]

Jarren Duran last 10 games:

.143 AVG

411 OPS

13 wRC+

36.8 K%

 

Previous 12 games:

.354 AVG

987 OPS

176 wRC+

13.5 K%

 

Seems like the book is getting around on him again, maybe?

[notin]

Jarren Duran last 10 games:

.143 AVG

411 OPS

13 wRC+

36.8 K%

 

Previous 12 games:

.354 AVG

987 OPS

176 wRC+

13.5 K%

 

Seems like the book is getting around on him again, maybe?

 

Maybe.

 

But it’s also just 38PA, the overwhelming bulk of which have been against two pretty good pitching staffs…

[mvp 78]

Maybe.

 

But it’s also just 38PA, the overwhelming bulk of which have been against two pretty good pitching staffs…

 

K% 2021 35.7 in 112 PA

 

His 2022 k rate in AAA looks an awful lot like his 2021 AAA k rate. IDK. At the very least, the 176 wRC+ is an abberation. He's not going to be a 13.5% k rate hitter. Maybe he can sustain the 25% rate going forward in MLB?

[mvp 78]

Losing Devers scares the hell out of me!

 

He's a unique talent.

There is no "book on him."

He's just entering peak prime, now.

He's a Yankee killer. (I know that's your soft spot.)

 

Instead of $290M/10, just go $300M/11.

 

@PeteAbe

David Ortiz on a pre-Hall Induction Zoom: “We gotta keep Devers.”