2022 Bullpen Thread

[Old Red]

I understand where you're coming from. We all really hope we can keep Devers. For me, there is a limit to how much I would pay him. Also for me, the number of years is more important than the AAV. I cannot see offering more than 8 years, despite the advantage of lowering the AAV.

 

If the Sox do give Devers a 10 or 14 year contract, I will embrace Devers and happily welcome his long term stay with us. At the same time, I will shudder at the contract.

 

Moon is always pushing 12-14 yr contracts for the Red Sox knowing that is something JH will not do most likely.

[Kimmi]

But paying Devers just $20M, when he's worth nearly $30M for the first 8 years makes up for the last 6.

 

Miggy is not making $20M, and when you figure inflation and when Miggy was signed, this is apples to oranges.

 

There is a good chance that Devers would be worth the total value of the contract, with a significant part of that value coming in the first third of that long deal. But it's really, really hard to eat that kind of money for that many years if the deal should go south for the last 5 or 6 years. The value that we received in the first 8 years won't help the team any in the last 6 years.

 

Those are the kinds of deals that can lead to eventual cliffs.

[moonslav59]

I think you're a little too focused on AAV.

 

Have we not learned that having dead money on the books for a period of years is not a lot of fun?

 

I get that, really I do.

 

I'm thinking of a way to get Devers to stay, and I'm not si sure Devers will be a burden, like Miggy or Pujols were, because his AVV, even before figuring expected inflation will be much lower, and he will be younger than they were, when he hits the back-end of the contract.

 

We all know, the AVV and lux tax seems to matter more than actual dollars to Henry. (Dice-K, Rusney, Moncada...)

 

I understand the risk, but I think the low cost and AVV on the front end outweighs the back end risks.

 

This is not like signing a 31 year old pitchers to $31M x 7. It's signing a 25 year old everyday player to 14 and about 2/3 the cost per year- not counting inflation.

 

Who knows, maybe $22M will be chump change in $9 years.

 

 

 

[Kimmi]

Moon is always pushing 12-14 yr contracts for the Red Sox knowing that is something JH will not do most likely.

 

Yeah, it's fun to debate, but I think it's a moot point. There is virtually no chance the Sox will agree to that kind of contract.

[Old Red]

Yeah, it's fun to debate, but I think it's a moot point. There is virtually no chance the Sox will agree to that kind of contract.

 

Well said, and agree 100%.

[moonslav59]

There is a good chance that Devers would be worth the total value of the contract, with a significant part of that value coming in the first third of that long deal. But it's really, really hard to eat that kind of money for that many years if the deal should go south for the last 5 or 6 years. The value that we received in the first 8 years won't help the team any in the last 6 years.

 

Those are the kinds of deals that can lead to eventual cliffs.

 

To me, Devers is worth $320M/11 or 12, and would likely get that. I'm thinking $320M/14 is no more hurtful, and if Devers can still be a plus at years 12, 13 & 14, it's a better deal.

 

Teams sometimes spread out the payments beyond the contract years, so this is no different, except maybe Devers can still play at ages 36-38. Many players still produce at that age, and Devers is special. I think he cans till DH at those ages.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's fun to debate, but I think it's a moot point. There is virtually no chance the Sox will agree to that kind of contract.

 

Agreed, but while we still have him, I think we should think like that.

 

Saying that does not mean Henry and Bloom are listening and will agree with me, but I am not ready to start talking about trading Devers vs getting nothing for him. That talk can wait, IMO.

 

Talk of trading Bogey, at the deadline, or getting nothing is fair game.

[Bellhorn04]

I get that, really I do.

 

I'm thinking of a way to get Devers to stay, and I'm not si sure Devers will be a burden, like Miggy or Pujols were, because his AVV, even before figuring expected inflation will be much lower, and he will be younger than they were, when he hits the back-end of the contract.

 

We all know, the AVV and lux tax seems to matter more than actual dollars to Henry. (Dice-K, Rusney, Moncada...)

 

No, I don't think we do know that.

 

As I think you've noted, the biggest contracts he's ever given out pale beside some of the ones now being handed out by other owners.

[Kimmi]

To me, Devers is worth $320M/11 or 12, and would likely get that. I'm thinking $320M/14 is no more hurtful, and if Devers can still be a plus at years 12, 13 & 14, it's a better deal.

 

Teams sometimes spread out the payments beyond the contract years, so this is no different, except maybe Devers can still play at ages 36-38. Many players still produce at that age, and Devers is special. I think he cans till DH at those ages.

 

If we knew that Devers would still be a plus at the tail end of the contract, then I'd do the deal in a heartbeat.

 

Your deal is probably a lot closer to what Devers will actually get than the one I am suggesting.

[moonslav59]

No, I don't think we do know that.

 

As I think you've noted, the biggest contracts he's ever given out pale beside some of the ones now being handed out by other owners.

 

Ive tried very hard to separate what I think Bloom/Henry will do and what I think they should do.

 

I'm trying to show how a contract like $300M/14 to a 25 year old everyday player may be less risky than a $217M/7 deal to a 31 year old pitcher.

 

I, too, doubt Bloom will give anything above $220-240M/8, but I like to give my opinions.

 

[Kimmi]

Agreed, but while we still have him, I think we should think like that.

 

Saying that does not mean Henry and Bloom are listening and will agree with me, but I am not ready to start talking about trading Devers vs getting nothing for him. That talk can wait, IMO.

 

Talk of trading Bogey, at the deadline, or getting nothing is fair game.

 

Yes, the good thing with Devers is that we still have 2 more years to hopefully work something out.

 

I think Bogaerts is as good as gone.

[moonslav59]

If we knew that Devers would still be a plus at the tail end of the contract, then I'd do the deal in a heartbeat.

 

Your deal is probably a lot closer to what Devers will actually get than the one I am suggesting.

 

I'm just trying to think of creative ways to keep Devers. I don't think even $240M/8 will keep him here.

 

I want him here, so we have to either raise the AVV or lengthen the deal.

 

At Devers age, I'm thinking the length is a better gamble than the higher AVV.

 

More likely, he'll get somewhere in between- like $290-300M/10, and if you are willing to give that, how can $340M/14 be any worse vs that deal?

[Bellhorn04]

Ive tried very hard to separate what I think Bloom/Henry will do and what I think they should do.

 

I'm trying to show how a contract like $300M/14 to a 25 year old everyday player may be less risky than a $217M/7 deal to a 31 year old pitcher.

 

I, too, doubt Bloom will give anything above $220-240M/8, but I like to give my opinions.

 

 

I have no problem at all with your opinions. I'm just pointing out that Henry has not yet given out a contract higher than Price's 217 mill.

[Old Red]

Agreed, but while we still have him, I think we should think like that.

 

Saying that does not mean Henry and Bloom are listening and will agree with me, but I am not ready to start talking about trading Devers vs getting nothing for him. That talk can wait, IMO.

 

Talk of trading Bogey, at the deadline, or getting nothing is fair game.

 

Still talking about trading Bogey at the deadline when he has a NO TRADE. Bogey will stay to the end of the year.

[notin]

I have no problem at all with your opinions. I'm just pointing out that Henry has not yet given out a contract higher than Price's 217 mill.

 

And if he ever does it, I expect it to be an infrequent occurrence…

[notin]

Still talking about trading Bogey at the deadline when he has a NO TRADE. Bogey will stay to the end of the year.

 

 

If he’s as insulted as many are saying, why would he?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My point on the budget isn't how much is being spent but what we really argue about here (and at work, at home, pre-Covid bars, etc): who it is being spent on.

 

For Bloom's goal of continuing to build the farm, some strategies have to shift. Even if the Sox let all their free agents walk and they finish last again, the new draft lottery makes it even harder to land a gem like Mayer. So where will the truly top prospects come from, assuming Boston stays competitive? Maybe from other organizations...

 

... which can make trading high-priced commodities like Devers almost desirable.

[Old Red]

If he’s as insulted as many are saying, why would he?

 

He may be hurt, and pissed off at management, but he loves to play in Boston with the atmosphere, and the fans would be my guess.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If he’s as insulted as many are saying, why would he?

 

Bogey wouldn't be the first young pro athlete to accept a trade to a new team that has a chance to win and expresses a strong pitch to make him feel wanted.

[notin]

Bogey wouldn't be the first young pro athlete to accept a trade to a new team that has a chance to win and expresses a strong pitch to make him feel wanted.

 

At least the second, after Nate Eovaldi…

[moonslav59]

I have no problem at all with your opinions. I'm just pointing out that Henry has not yet given out a contract higher than Price's 217 mill.

 

Or 7 years.

 

I get it.

[notin]

He may be hurt, and pissed off at management, but he loves to play in Boston with the atmosphere, and the fans would be my guess.

 

I have my doubts Boston is his priority. A new well-paying contract? Absolutely he wants one. He hired Scott Boras as his representative. Players don’t hireBoras so they can take hometown discounts (although it has happened, including once by Bogaerts).

 

But now it looks like he wants a new deal on his terms and at the value he (and Scott) have determined. And if he won’t get it from Boston, he knows he can learn to love a new city with new fans and a new atmosphere…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At least the second, after Nate Eovaldi…

 

If only someone deems him worth the cost of a Jalen Beeks...

[notin]

If only someone deems him worth the cost of a Jalen Beeks...

 

The first two years of that contract did make it closer than it should have been…

[Old Red]

I have my doubts Boston is his priority. A new well-paying contract? Absolutely he wants one. He hired Scott Boras as his representative. Players don’t hireBoras so they can take hometown discounts (although it has happened, including once by Bogaerts).

 

But now it looks like he wants a new deal on his terms and at the value he (and Scott) have determined. And if he won’t get it from Boston, he knows he can learn to love a new city with new fans and a new atmosphere…

 

Boras was his agent when he signed his last contract. We disagree on Bogey wanting to stay in Boston. I have no doubt that is his top priority to stay there.

[Kimmi]

I'm just trying to think of creative ways to keep Devers. I don't think even $240M/8 will keep him here.

 

I want him here, so we have to either raise the AVV or lengthen the deal.

 

At Devers age, I'm thinking the length is a better gamble than the higher AVV.

 

More likely, he'll get somewhere in between- like $290-300M/10, and if you are willing to give that, how can $340M/14 be any worse vs that deal?

 

I get it. I don't agree with going that long on a contract, but I get wanting to keep a player like Devers on the team. I really hope that he and the Sox can work something out.

[Kimmi]

Still talking about trading Bogey at the deadline when he has a NO TRADE. Bogey will stay to the end of the year.

 

If the Sox are out of contention and he has the chance to go to a playoff bound team, he would likely jump at the chance.

 

If the Sox are in contention, I don't think they would want to trade him in the first place.

[Old Red]

If the Sox are out of contention and he has the chance to go to a playoff bound team, he would likely jump at the chance.

 

If the Sox are in contention, I don't think they would want to trade him in the first place.

 

If he is teed off enough at management you may be right, but that would be a bad ending as a RedSox. Of course walking out the door at the end of the season will too.

[notin]

Boras was his agent when he signed his last contract. We disagree on Bogey wanting to stay in Boston. I have no doubt that is his top priority to stay there.

 

Unlike you, I won’t speak for Xander. At best I can guess (and point it out as such).

 

But if you think Bogaerts wants Boston, why was there no counteroffer from his side? Whether or not he was insulted is immaterial. (Especially since Bogaerts was not likely there when Boston made the offer.) If Bogaerts wanted to stay, he would have already had a number in mind. Why not present it?

[dgalehouse]

I think the fans have an affinity for Boston, so we think the players do as well. That may not always be the case. If the grass looks greener elsewhere , they will leave Beantown. With a few exceptions of course.