2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[notin]

My point was more about Wache being better the 3rd time through than Eovaldi- career and 2021, yet who is the only guys they let o 3+?

 

Eovaldi and for a while, Pivetta.

 

Wacha has significantly better numbers than Nate.

 

I'm with you on Hill, but let's give Wacha a couple chances beyond the second time through.

 

I'm with you on Houck. Start him or make him the one inning closer.

 

Wacha was just an example of my point. That the rotation is doing better because they face the same hitters twice only. Will they do worse third time through? Absolutely.

 

However, will they be worse than the bullpen? I’m not so sure…

[notin]

I agree 100%, but that’s not the way that the nerds, or metrics says it should be done. I personally think pitch count is a bigger determinator than the 3rd time through the order. Any stats on pitch counts in relation to third time through the order?

 

Fatigue and exposure are the factors. Whichever one is more important, not sure. And probably varies from pitcher to pitcher…

[notin]

Does kind of make you wonder about fatigue being a factor. Is it possible that some of these guys just tire out? Maybe conditioning plays a role in all of this.

 

It’s not as simple as conditioning. They’re going to be more tired after throwing 80 pitches than after 0.

 

And the days of pitchers routinely throwing 140 pitches over 9 innings are over. Teams have too much money tied up in individual pitchers to risk them sitting out for a year or two.

 

There are plenty of people who’ve proposed Cora’s overuse of Sale (like chasing his 300th K in 2017) is a huge factor if not the primary cause in why he’s been all but missing the past 2 seasons…

[cp176]

It’s not as simple as conditioning. They’re going to be more tired after throwing 80 pitches than after 0.

 

And the days of pitchers routinely throwing 140 pitches over 9 innings are over. Teams have too much money tied up in individual pitchers to risk them sitting out for a year or two.

 

There are plenty of people who’ve proposed Cora’s overuse of Sale (like chasing his 300th K in 2017) is a huge factor if not the primary cause in why he’s been all but missing the past 2 seasons…

 

Since this isn't a political discussion, I am not forced in to taking a side. Compromise is still ok. There is a vast difference between 80 and 140 as well as the obvious 0 to 80. I get your point but making it this way doesn't register well for me. Probably just me. I'm going to go with conditioning and overall fitness still possibly playing a role. it works better for me than simply saying manager stupidity. If I were to hang my hat on the way you have stated things, i guess that I could take this discussion right back to the youth league level where kids who have not reached puberty are actually experiencing TJ surgery. Throwing a ball repetetively for 12 months might just being taking its toll in general. i'm going with if your bullpen is weak, maybe you ought to try to get just that one more inning and maybe 10-15 more pitches out of your starter.

[JDavis76]

Fatigue and exposure are the factors. Whichever one is more important, not sure. And probably varies from pitcher to pitcher…

 

But back in the day starters routinely went deeper into games and they certainly weren't in better condition than today's pitchers.

[moonslav59]

You use as much information that is available to help you do the best job that you can do but it seems to me that an extensive use of analytics to defend certain stances makes it look as though they are also being used to provide a crutch when things just don't work. Common sense and coaching means that on occasion you do what you think is the right thing to do. it is possible that a good decision might not be supported by analytics. Paralysis by analysis is a real thing.

Houck and Whitlock should be both used as starters at this point or relievers but jerking them around being used as both isn't going to help this situation. They are young guys who need to have clearly defined roles. It is kind of looking as though the real hitters on this team might be our big three - Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez. If these professional hitters are not going to be in our future, my choice would be to bring up the kids and see what they can do. What we are doing right now appears to be an exercise in colossal failure.

 

Well said, cp.

[moonslav59]

Wacha was just an example of my point. That the rotation is doing better because they face the same hitters twice only. Will they do worse third time through? Absolutely.

 

However, will they be worse than the bullpen? I’m not so sure…

 

I disagree on the term "absolutely" they will do worse. Some do not, or at worst, it's not so absolute..

[mvp 78]

Fatigue and exposure are the factors. Whichever one is more important, not sure. And probably varies from pitcher to pitcher…

 

And batter vs pitcher.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What has always bothered me as a fan or as a player is the obvious variable when taking out a starter who is "on" that night, especially with a relatively low pitch count: there is no guarantee the reliever will also be good... or the next reliever... or the next reliever...

 

And don't blame Cora for maxing out Sale in 2017 -- except maybe in the playoffs, when Cora's Astros crushed Sale.

[moonslav59]

We all know, sometimes pitchers have it, and sometimes the don't. Great pitchers do well enough when they don't, but can we let our starters go just a little longer, when they do?

 

I don't think this is an extreme idea.

[Bellhorn04]

"The strategy of hooking starters early only works when the bullpen is really good." - Cap'n Obvious.

[cp176]

"The strategy of hooking starters early only works when the bullpen is really good." - Cap'n Obvious.

 

correcto!!!

[notin]

"The strategy of hooking starters early only works when the bullpen is really good." - Cap'n Obvious.

 

A big part of the reason Houck and Whitlock should have been left there…

[notin]

I disagree on the term "absolutely" they will do worse. Some do not, or at worst, it's not so absolute..

 

No. It’s absolute. It’s just immediate.

 

Nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching…

[Bellhorn04]

A big part of the reason Houck and Whitlock should have been left there…

 

I get your point. But I'm not sure they should keep Whitlock in the pen simply because there's so much dreck there. What you're saying probably would make the most sense for 2022. But in the long view Whitlock should be a starter.

[mvp 78]

Nothing ruins a baseball fan more than watching baseball.

[mvp 78]

I get your point. But I'm not sure they should keep Whitlock in the pen simply because there's so much dreck there. What you're saying probably would make the most sense for 2022. But in the long view Whitlock should be a starter.

 

Whitlock is probably the 2nd best pitcher on the team. He should be a starter.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock is probably the 2nd best pitcher on the team. He should be a starter.

 

Maybe even the best. Yes, he should start, IMO.

 

I'd send Houck to be the one inning closer. Define his role, too.

[notin]

Whitlock is probably the 2nd best pitcher on the team. He should be a starter.

 

My argument for Whitlock in the pen:

 

1. He’s only topped 73 IP once in his career and the following season was cut short for TJ. A 120-150 IP role is probably not a good idea just yet.

2. In the pen they can have him affect more games with his (probable) 90-110 IP limit.

3. I’d rather watch Whitlock preserve leads for multiple starters than watch multiple relievers blow his leads.

4. Hopefully a moderate workload increase this year can put him in line for a full time rotation spot in 2023.

 

I like the idea of Houck in a high leverage/closer role. But if you limit him to 1 IP and change in each outing, this team is going to need some multi-inning relief arms…

[moonslav59]

My argument for Whitlock in the pen:

 

1. He’s only topped 73 IP once in his career and the following season was cut short for TJ. A 120-150 IP role is probably not a good idea just yet.

2. In the pen they can have him affect more games with his (probable) 90-110 IP limit.

3. I’d rather watch Whitlock preserve leads for multiple starters than watch multiple relievers blow his leads.

4. Hopefully a moderate workload increase this year can put him in line for a full time rotation spot in 2023.

 

I like the idea of Houck in a high leverage/closer role. But if you limit him to 1 IP and change in each outing, this team is going to need some multi-inning relief arms…

 

Maybe Seabold?

 

Davis has gone longer than 1 inning twice and Robles 3 times. I would not use Crawford in that role, anymore. Is Valdez a choice?

[moonslav59]

My argument for Whitlock in the pen:

 

1. He’s only topped 73 IP once in his career and the following season was cut short for TJ. A 120-150 IP role is probably not a good idea just yet.

2. In the pen they can have him affect more games with his (probable) 90-110 IP limit.

3. I’d rather watch Whitlock preserve leads for multiple starters than watch multiple relievers blow his leads.

4. Hopefully a moderate workload increase this year can put him in line for a full time rotation spot in 2023.

 

I like the idea of Houck in a high leverage/closer role. But if you limit him to 1 IP and change in each outing, this team is going to need some multi-inning relief arms…

 

You made a good case for Whitlock.

 

I will add that much of what you said about Whitlock could be said about Houck, too. Even counting the minors, Houck has only gone more than 83 innings once (back in 2019.)

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe Seabold?

 

Davis has gone longer than 1 inning twice and Robles 3 times. I would not use Crawford in that role, anymore. Is Valdez a choice?

 

Valdez was a possible choice, but recent outings have been less encouraging.

[moonslav59]

Valdez was a possible choice, but recent outings have been less encouraging.

 

Indeed. He looked real good in his first 6 games, the real bad his next 2.

[mvp 78]

My argument for Whitlock in the pen:

 

1. He’s only topped 73 IP once in his career and the following season was cut short for TJ. A 120-150 IP role is probably not a good idea just yet.

2. In the pen they can have him affect more games with his (probable) 90-110 IP limit.

3. I’d rather watch Whitlock preserve leads for multiple starters than watch multiple relievers blow his leads.

4. Hopefully a moderate workload increase this year can put him in line for a full time rotation spot in 2023.

 

I like the idea of Houck in a high leverage/closer role. But if you limit him to 1 IP and change in each outing, this team is going to need some multi-inning relief arms…

 

He's already on pace for 132 innings. I think he's going to be around 140 or so max this year. I think that's the goal.

[JDavis76]

My argument for Whitlock in the pen:

 

1. He’s only topped 73 IP once in his career and the following season was cut short for TJ. A 120-150 IP role is probably not a good idea just yet.

2. In the pen they can have him affect more games with his (probable) 90-110 IP limit.

3. I’d rather watch Whitlock preserve leads for multiple starters than watch multiple relievers blow his leads.

4. Hopefully a moderate workload increase this year can put him in line for a full time rotation spot in 2023.

 

I like the idea of Houck in a high leverage/closer role. But if you limit him to 1 IP and change in each outing, this team is going to need some multi-inning relief arms…

 

I would say that makes a lot of sense.

[moonslav59]

He's already on pace for 132 innings. I think he's going to be around 140 or so max this year. I think that's the goal.

 

If he finishes the season with 90-10o by going to a 1 inning closer role, is that better than him getting 132 in a long man/spot starter role?

 

To me, it's not an easy choice, and I think Houck is better suited for one inning stints.

[notin]

Indeed. He looked real good in his first 6 games, the real bad his next 2.

 

I still trust him more than I’d trust Barnes and maybe even Brasier…

[mvp 78]

I get the distrust of Brasier, but he's been ok. The only worrying thing is that the ball is getting hit hard off him (bottom 1% in the league).

 

Maybe it'll be his turn to pay the piper next.

[notin]

He's already on pace for 132 innings. I think he's going to be around 140 or so max this year. I think that's the goal.

 

That seems like too many IP to me, but:

 

1. I’m really not as close to the situation as the Sox are, and

2. Nobody on this planet cares about my medical opinion and quite often with good reason…

[moonslav59]

I get the distrust of Brasier, but he's been ok. The only worrying thing is that the ball is getting hit hard off him (bottom 1% in the league).

 

Maybe it'll be his turn to pay the piper next.

 

It's close, but as of now, I trust Brasier more than Barnes, too.

 

The fact is, we just don't have trustworthy arms in the pen. With Whitlock starting and Houck locked into 1 specific relief role every 5 games, the only guy I half-way trust is Strahm. Robles and Davis have moved up by attrition.