2022 Prospects

[mvp 78]

@brendan_camp

November 19, 2022:

 

Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Breilin Arredondo to a minor league contract.

 

Assigned to DSL Red

[notin]

@brendan_camp

November 19, 2022:

 

Boston Red Sox signed free agent RHP Breilin Arredondo to a minor league contract.

 

Assigned to DSL Red

 

Is BA right in this guy is 5’ 151lbs?

 

Or is that a typo?

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has him at 5-11 and 151.

[Larry Cook]

We have a lot of middle infield prospects in our system and very light on quality outfielder and pitching prospects.

[moonslav59]

We have a lot of middle infield prospects in our system and very light on quality outfielder and pitching prospects.

 

Rafaela and Abreu are about it for the OF, unless Duran makes a comeback (lol).

 

With Kike's time up after 2023, that is certainly an area we could add a longterm solution to.

[Hugh2]

While depth in the outfield might not be the system strong suit, the only 5-tool 8 ceiling prospect we have is a guy named Miguel Bleis.

 

The way scouts talk about him remind me of Xander Bogaerts, when even at 17, 18 years old in the lower minors every one raved about him as being different and special.

 

If everything breaks right, Bleis is a Mike Trout type of player. True 5 tools. GG defense, will steal bases, throw guys out, hit like a machine and hit it over the wall.

[moonslav59]

While depth in the outfield might not be the system strong suit, the only 5-tool 8 ceiling prospect we have is a guy named Miguel Bleis.

 

The way scouts talk about him remind me of Xander Bogaerts, when even at 17, 18 years old in the lower minors every one raved about him as being different and special.

 

If everything breaks right, Bleis is a Mike Trout type of player. True 5 tools. GG defense, will steal bases, throw guys out, hit like a machine and hit it over the wall.

 

Indeed. I should have mentioned him but was thinking only of ML ready prospects.

[Hugh2]

Indeed. I should have mentioned him but was thinking only of ML ready prospects.

 

I figured that’s where you were going. Which is a very fair stance to make. Bleis is very far away. Even if he’s a phenom who flys through the system like Devers/Bogaerts/Betts we don’t see him until 2025z

[moonslav59]

I figured that’s where you were going. Which is a very fair stance to make. Bleis is very far away. Even if he’s a phenom who flys through the system like Devers/Bogaerts/Betts we don’t see him until 2025z

 

I’m really excited about so many ML or near ML ready prospects but also some highly promising prospects not due for 2, 3 or more years from now. We seem to finally be set up for a constant flow of young talent- a far cry from the 5 year window from Devers to Bello/Casas.

[moonslav59]

Sox prospects came out with their 31-60 rankings.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/soxprospectscom-end-of-season-rankings.html

 

No Downs, so he must have stayed in the top 30.

 

Wong Graduated.

 

Tyler McDonough fell from 17 to 35

Gilberto Jimenez fell from 18 to 44.

Alex Binelas from 21 to 38.

Christian Koss from 22 to 36.

Juan Chacon from 41 to 54.

Jacob Wallace fell from 36 to 47.

David Hamilton from 26 to 33.

 

Stephen Scott rose from 55 to 45.

60> 31 Jedixson Paez

51> 32 Tyler Uberstine

48> 37 Freili Encarnacion

 

Risers:

Unranked to...

34 Luis Guerrero

41 Johnfrank Salazar

42 AJ Politi

43 Chase Meidroth

46 Taylor Broadway

48 Angel Bastardo

49 Juan Encarnacion

50 Noah Dean

51 Allan Castro

57 D McElveny

 

[Bellhorn04]

Two Encarnacions, I see.

[moonslav59]

It's weird that SP's had Wink graduate in Sept and Bello in October and promptly removed them from their ranking list, but just stated that Wong graduated. Like when? In November? He's still on their top 30 list at #11, but maybe they just decided to wait for the EOY update to remove him.

[moonslav59]

Here is an interesting question about the soon to be top 30 release.

 

They say Wong is now graduated, so who will take his place in the top 30?

 

Will it be someone who wasn't even ranked to start the season or one of these guys who are no longer in the new 31-60 range:

 

R Hern (previously 31)

 

Eduard Bazardo (previously 36)

 

Devlin Granberg (56)

 

Max Ferguson (59)

 

I could see RHern going from 31 to 30. Max Ferguson stole a mess of bases and was in the top 8 in BBs, but what did he do in the second half to jump from 59 to top 30? Eduard Bazardo? I know it's not Granberg.

 

Here is my updated top 30 with Wong removed:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Rafaela

5. Romero

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Paulino

9. Walter

10. Perales

11. Anthony

12. Wikelman

13. Valdez

14. Jordan

15. Lugo

16. Murphy

17. Bonaci

18. Hickey

19. Kavadas

20. T Ward

21. Abreu

22. Rodriguez-Cruz

23. Kelly

24. German

25. Coffey

26. Brannon

27. Drohan

28. Downs

29. Seabold

30. R Hern

 

[mvp 78]

Two Encarnacions, I see.

 

Unrelated. The pitcher was signed in 18. Freili was signed earlier this season.

[mvp 78]

I could see RHern going from 31 to 30. Max Ferguson stole a mess of bases and was in the top 8 in BBs, but what did he do in the second half to jump from 59 to top 30? Eduard Bazardo? I know it's not Granberg.

 

 

It's Ronaldo Hernandez.

 

Max hit 181 in Salem with no power. Even if he took a walk, that means very little at that level. His OPS was still only 618. 10 SB's in 50 games in A+ isn't a big deal. His overinflated 51 SB's over 64 games in A can be ignored.

 

Bazardo isn't even in the org anymore.

[mvp 78]

Interesting note on the detailed 60-31 SP list:

 

41. Johnfrank Salazar

Preseason Rank: Unranked

2022 Stats: 51 games, 205 PA, .297/.386/.394, 11 2B, 22 BB, 26 K @ FCL and Salem

-“El Capitan” has endeared himself to teammates and coaches with his leadership and strong play. He impressed at the plate in 2022, particularly in the FCL where he hit .327 while walking nearly twice as often as he struck out. The team was going to give him a look at catcher at the canceled 2022 Fall Performance Program.

[moonslav59]

It's Ronaldo Hernandez.

 

Max hit 181 in Salem with no power. Even if he took a walk, that means very little at that level. His OPS was still only 618. 10 SB's in 50 games in A+ isn't a big deal. His overinflated 51 SB's over 64 games in A can be ignored.

 

Bazardo isn't even in the org anymore.

 

He rises by attrition, and not by producing well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Interesting note on the detailed 60-31 SP list:

 

41. Johnfrank Salazar

Preseason Rank: Unranked

2022 Stats: 51 games, 205 PA, .297/.386/.394, 11 2B, 22 BB, 26 K @ FCL and Salem

-“El Capitan” has endeared himself to teammates and coaches with his leadership and strong play. He impressed at the plate in 2022, particularly in the FCL where he hit .327 while walking nearly twice as often as he struck out. The team was going to give him a look at catcher at the canceled 2022 Fall Performance Program.

 

This is the kind of player where there's no stat that can measure total worth to a ballclub. Don't be surprised if another franchise specifically requests him in a trade soon.

[mvp 78]

He rises by attrition, and not by producing well.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/soxprospectscom-end-of-season-rankings_0147498655.html

 

30-21 posted.

 

28. Ronaldo Hernandez

Preseason Rank: 28

2022 Stats: 105 games, 439 PA, .261/.298/.451, 17 HR, 21 BB, 92 @ Worcester

Hernandez is ranked 28th, exactly where he was at the start of the season.

[moonslav59]

I do wonder a little why SPs still clings to such a high value for Downs (only dropped from 13th to 24th.) I know there is still hope for him, and his defense is good enough, but I'd have put him below #30.

 

I also think Seabold should be lower than 22nd (dropped from #14,) as he is 26 years old. I guess his .656 OPS Against in 87 IP at AAA kept him afloat.

 

Wilyer Abreu was ranked 26th, when we acquired him and Bello, Wink and Wong all graduated since the trade, so his drop to #29 is actually like a 6 slot drop. RHern staying at #28 is sort of like a drop, too.

 

 

Ward slid slightly from #20 to #23, but all the others from 21-30 rose up in the rankings:

 

NR> 21 Coffey +39 or more

 

NR> 30 Brannon +30 or more

 

52> 26 Drohan +26

 

35> 25 German +10

 

37> 27 Kelly +10

 

Players not listed in the 21-30 rankings who were there before the re-sort are:

 

22 Kavadas

25 Rodriguez-Cruz

 

I'm assuming they take Wong and Ward's slots in the top 20, as they should.

 

[mvp 78]

I do wonder a little why SPs still clings to such a high value for Downs (only dropped from 13th to 24th.) I know there is still hope for him, and his defense is good enough, but I'd have put him below #30.

 

 

 

Downs is sill higher because of proximity. He's close enough to at least be a utility guy going forward. Other guys around him may never make it at all. The position player right after Downs is Abreu, which makes sense as they don't really see him as an everyday MLB guy either. The pitchers right below Downs are generally pretty far away or are relievers. The other position players nearby are Ronaldo at 32 and Binelas at 33. I'd have Downs much higher than either of those guys too.

[mvp 78]

I also think Seabold should be lower than 22nd (dropped from #14,) as he is 26 years old. I guess his .656 OPS Against in 87 IP at AAA kept him afloat.

 

You were the big Seabold proponent last season. If his "stuff" comes back to 2020 levels, he's a top 10 prospect. I think he's high just because he has starter upside. He's behind a guy like Murphy as he's lost a lot of luster, but there's still an outside shot of him doing something.

[mvp 78]

Wilyer Abreu was ranked 26th, when we acquired him and Bello, Wink and Wong all graduated since the trade, so his drop to #29 is actually like a 6 slot drop. RHern staying at #28 is sort of like a drop, too.

 

Abreu's drop makes sense as he's played worse since coming here.

 

OPS

AA Corpus Christi 858

AA Portland 784

AFL Scottsdale 479

[mvp 78]

 

NR> 21 Coffey +39 or more

 

NR> 30 Brannon +30 or more

 

It's not that these guys "jumped" it's that they weren't even in the system as they were just drafted.

[moonslav59]

All good points, MVP.

[mvp 78]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/soxprospectscom-end-of-season-rankings_066849077.html

 

20-11 was posted.

 

Kavadas

ERC

Hickey

Valdez

Bonaci

Jordan

Lugo

Murphy

Wikelman

Paulino

[moonslav59]

http://news.soxprospects.com/2022/11/soxprospectscom-end-of-season-rankings_066849077.html

 

20-11 was posted.

 

Kavadas

ERC

Hickey

Valdez

Bonaci

Jordan

Lugo

Murphy

Wikelman

Paulino

 

My 11-20 was...

 

11. Anthony

12. Wikelman

13. Valdez

14. Jordan

15. Lugo

16. Murphy

17. Bonaci

18. Hickey

19. Kavadas

20. T Ward

 

This means Anthony went top 10- maybe #10: something like this:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Rafaela

5. Romero

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Walter

9. Perales

10. Anthony

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com comes out with their top 10 list, today. Some questions:

 

1. How high will Perales rise? (He was slotted 15th in the mid season rankings but is not in the 11-20 list.)

 

2. Will they drop Yorke much due to his not-so-great season? (He was ranked 5th, mid season and 3rd at the start of '22.)

 

3. How high will they slot Romero (7th midseason) and Anthony (10th)?

 

This is what I think they will present:

 

1. Mayer

2. Casas

3. Bleis

4. Rafaela

5. Romero

6. Mata

7. Yorke

8. Walter

9. Perales

10. Anthony

 

I might put Perales higher. Mine might look like this:

 

1. Mayer

2. Bleis

3. Casas

4. Rafaela

5. Perales

6. Mata

7. Romero

8. Yorke

9. Walter

10. Anthony

[mvp 78]

My guess

 

Mayer

Casas

Bleis

Rafaela

Yorke

Mata

Romero

Perales

Walter

Anthony

[moonslav59]

Until we sign someone major, there isn't too much to talk about without rehashing old debates. Here is something to ponder and possibly respond to:

 

If we go back and add all graduated prospects from mid 2021 to today, what would be your rankings?

 

Add: Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Wong, Winckowski & Duran

 

Here is my list:

 

1. Whitlock

2. Mayer

3. Bello

4. Houck

5. Bleis

6. Casas

7. Rafaela

8. Romero

9. Perales

10. Mata

11. Yorke

12. Walter

13. Paulino

14. Anthony

15. Wikelman

16. Wong

17. Valdez

18. Jordan

19. Lugo

20. Hickey

21. Kavadas

22. Crawford

23. Rodriguez-Cruz

24. Murphy

25. Bonaci

26. Abreu

27. Winckowski

28. Kelly

29. German

30. T Ward

31. Coffey

32. Brannon

33. Drohan

34. Wallace

35. Salazar

36. Uberstine

37. Hamilton

38. Binelas

39. J Paez

40. RHern/Koss/Politi/R Fernandez