Sox signing Wacha

[notin]

I seem to recall reports at the trade deadline that Scherzer wanted to go the West Coast -- where he went and thrived. If LA offers him $50M for two years, would Max instead sign with NY for $51? I dunno, but I never thought he'd be a realistic candidate for Bloom because of both cost and age.

 

As for Semien, his "most money" goal rules out Boston for sure. Maybe that explains why the Sox are one of three finalists for Baez -- as rumored today. The other clubs are the Tigers and Mets...

 

Detroit is reportedly in on Baez because they don't want to spend $300M on Correa or Seager. But if Boston really wanted him, think of the pitch: "Would you rather play with the Mets -- who just signed three other position players; the Tigers -- to play behind ERod; or the Red Sox -- where you can reunite with Alex Cora? Which team is closest to the World Series?"

 

 

Scherzer’s trade requests mean nothing with regards to his free agent negotiations; his money wasn’t going to change.

 

Apparently Scherzer has lived in Arizona since his days on the Diamondbacks. So clearly he does not let his location influence where he pitches, what with him living in Arizona these past seven years while pitching in DC.

 

So yes, if the Mets offered $51 mill, he’d take out. He has to. It’s the only way he could be taken seriously as a board member for MLBPA…

[moonslav59]

I’m never going to consider settling arb year pricing with the backup catcher should be a “major move.”

 

But that the list has only 3 moves out of 9 that cost more than $3.1 mill really says a lot about the budget he’s working with.

 

Indeed.

 

One could say our highest 5 paid players plus Whitlock, and we're at 3 for 6.

 

That wasn't meant as a knock.

[moonslav59]

You think Tampa made a mistake signing Kluber over Whack a then?

 

Like I said, it was close.

 

The incentive part of the deal helps make it look better than had they just paid him $9-10M/1.

 

I wouldn't call anyone's choice between Kluber and Wacha a "mistake."

 

If the Sox are on a strict budget, I'd prefer Wacha. Again, it's close.

 

I'm not sure why you are making such a big deal out of this one signing and trying to draw me out into a position I'm not all that solid on to begin with- either way.

 

I like adding starter depth, and $7M seems like the going rate. If we do very little, this winter, then I'll be upset, but I seriously doubt that will happen.

 

Word is, we are in the finals for Baez, so that tells me our winter budget is not real low.

[mvp 78]

1/7 is fine for Wacha. Sox need to add a better arm than that though.

[moonslav59]

1/7 is fine for Wacha. Sox need to add a better arm than that though.

 

It's looking more and more like that will have to be via trade.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-fill-out-rotation-with-intriguing-michael-wacha-addition/

 

Wacha succeeds or fails with his changeup. It allowed a .270 wOBA last year, and he’s thrown it over a quarter of the time in the last two seasons. It’s his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a SwStr% of 19.6%, though honestly, it’s his only swing-and-miss pitch; his fastball, cutter and curveball get whiffs less than 10% of the time. He throws his change in the upper 80s, about 7 mph off of his fastball, and with its decent arm-side movement plus an average amount of drop, it can be lethal below the knees to lefties. He throws it more than 25% of the time to righties as well, and its effectiveness only slightly drops against them (a .262 wOBA to lefties and .275 to righties).

 

But even Wacha’s nasty changeup isn’t immune to the long ball; its HR/FB rate last season was 24%, the worst of any of his pitches. Like most changeups, it leads to a lot of ground balls, but last year, it had a career-low GB% (49.5%), career-high FB% (24.8%), and career-high launch angle (8 degrees). A lot of this change in results, though, seems to have come from hitters being in better position to elevate balls in the lower third of the strike zone.

 

Beyond his changeup, the real issue for Wacha the last couple years has been his cutter. He’s increased its usage over the last two years, all the way up to 27.2% in 2020 and 24.8% in ’21. But hitters tore it apart last year to the tune of a .415 wOBA allowed, and according to our pitch value metric, it’s been a negative his entire career, with the lone exception being the 2018 season.

 

Wacha and the Rays seemed to have concluded that his cutter was a lost cause, because in mid-August, its usage dropped; from August 28 onward, he threw only a small handful. His performance during that cutter-less stretch, you ask? A 2.88 ERA and 3.29 FIP. That’s the stretch that earned him this contract, and it would seem obvious that his cutter will stay missing next season in Boston — or that might be premature, as Wacha stated recently that he plans on bringing it back.

 

Wacha looked like a completely different pitcher late in the season without his cutter, with its usage distributed to a newly developed sinker and his curveball; both of those pitches went from basically unused to each being thrown more than 10% of the time. The sinker is a logical replacement, given its low spin rate, and the early returns seemed positive, as it allowed a .333 wOBA. It’s hard to draw a sweeping conclusion on it after this limited sample, though, and the same can be said for his curveball, which was hit quite hard (.425 wOBA) in its limited run, though none of that came in the form of extra-base hits, and it had an absurd 71.4% ground-ball rate. It will be interesting to see what kind of arsenal he brings to the table in 2022 after an offseason of tinkering with these pitches and working with a new staff.

[mvp 78]

It's looking more and more like that will have to be via trade.

 

I think we kind of assumed they'd try to go that route anyway. None of the pitchers aside from Stroman really interest me and Stroman is a weird fit due to our piss poor IF defense.

[moonslav59]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-fill-out-rotation-with-intriguing-michael-wacha-addition/

 

Wacha succeeds or fails with his changeup. It allowed a .270 wOBA last year, and he’s thrown it over a quarter of the time in the last two seasons. It’s his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a SwStr% of 19.6%, though honestly, it’s his only swing-and-miss pitch; his fastball, cutter and curveball get whiffs less than 10% of the time. He throws his change in the upper 80s, about 7 mph off of his fastball, and with its decent arm-side movement plus an average amount of drop, it can be lethal below the knees to lefties. He throws it more than 25% of the time to righties as well, and its effectiveness only slightly drops against them (a .262 wOBA to lefties and .275 to righties).

 

But even Wacha’s nasty changeup isn’t immune to the long ball; its HR/FB rate last season was 24%, the worst of any of his pitches. Like most changeups, it leads to a lot of ground balls, but last year, it had a career-low GB% (49.5%), career-high FB% (24.8%), and career-high launch angle (8 degrees). A lot of this change in results, though, seems to have come from hitters being in better position to elevate balls in the lower third of the strike zone.

 

Beyond his changeup, the real issue for Wacha the last couple years has been his cutter. He’s increased its usage over the last two years, all the way up to 27.2% in 2020 and 24.8% in ’21. But hitters tore it apart last year to the tune of a .415 wOBA allowed, and according to our pitch value metric, it’s been a negative his entire career, with the lone exception being the 2018 season.

 

Wacha and the Rays seemed to have concluded that his cutter was a lost cause, because in mid-August, its usage dropped; from August 28 onward, he threw only a small handful. His performance during that cutter-less stretch, you ask? A 2.88 ERA and 3.29 FIP. That’s the stretch that earned him this contract, and it would seem obvious that his cutter will stay missing next season in Boston — or that might be premature, as Wacha stated recently that he plans on bringing it back.

 

Wacha looked like a completely different pitcher late in the season without his cutter, with its usage distributed to a newly developed sinker and his curveball; both of those pitches went from basically unused to each being thrown more than 10% of the time. The sinker is a logical replacement, given its low spin rate, and the early returns seemed positive, as it allowed a .333 wOBA. It’s hard to draw a sweeping conclusion on it after this limited sample, though, and the same can be said for his curveball, which was hit quite hard (.425 wOBA) in its limited run, though none of that came in the form of extra-base hits, and it had an absurd 71.4% ground-ball rate. It will be interesting to see what kind of arsenal he brings to the table in 2022 after an offseason of tinkering with these pitches and working with a new staff.

 

Sounds promising.

 

It seems so much of a pitcher's value seems tied to their most recent sample size.

 

Nobody expects April to June Barnes, next year.

[Old Red]

Sounds promising.

 

It seems so much of a pitcher's value seems tied to their most recent sample size.

 

Nobody expects April to June Barnes, next year.

 

Speaking of Barnes, but who’s the closer going to be?

[moonslav59]

Speaking of Barnes, but who’s the closer going to be?

 

I'm thinking Houck, but who knows who we add before now and opening day.

 

Certainly Barnes will have a shot. Apparently, MLB is going to come out with a pre-tacked ball. Maybe that will help.

 

I can't see anyone else, except maybe Whitlock, assuming he is not moved to the rotation.

 

I guess we could trade for a closer.

[Old Red]

I'm thinking Houck, but who knows who we add before now and opening day.

 

Certainly Barnes will have a shot. Apparently, MLB is going to come out with a pre-tacked ball. Maybe that will help.

 

I can't see anyone else, except maybe Whitlock, assuming he is not moved to the rotation.

 

I guess we could trade for a closer.

 

Barnes was extended to be the closer, so they need to get something out of him to earn that extension.

[mvp 78]

Barnes was extended to be the closer, so they need to get something out of him to earn that extension.

 

They can start by seeing if he can be an 8th inning guy first.

[moonslav59]

Barnes was extended to be the closer, so they need to get something out of him to earn that extension.

 

Need and will may not match up, here.

 

I'd like to see us add a solid starter, so we can keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen, but adding someone like Trivino (with Montas or one of their other salary dumps) might be nice, too.

[moonslav59]

They can start by seeing if he can be an 8th inning guy first.

 

If he looks great in ST'ing, he may open as the closer.

[mvp 78]

If he looks great in ST'ing, he may open as the closer.

 

Maybe. He must have sprained a finger when he signed that extension. I hope normal Barnes comes back.

[jacksonianmarch]

Barnes will do what he always does. Come out of ST firing seeds and then will fade with pressure and repetitive use.

[moonslav59]

Barnes will do what he always does. Come out of ST firing seeds and then will fade with pressure and repetitive use.

 

He has a career .695 OPS Against and a .709 OPS Against in Sep/Oct.

 

His August has been his worst month, by far, so you have a point.

 

.578 July

.902 August

.709 Sep/Oct

[Nick]

Barnes was extended to be the closer, so they need to get something out of him to earn that extension.

 

Now you're talking...I agree.

[Nick]

Barnes will do what he always does. Come out of ST firing seeds and then will fade with pressure and repetitive use.

 

Unfortunately that's his default position. He never exudes confidence. Face of enigma.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately that's his default position. He never exudes confidence. Face of enigma.

 

Good word choice.

 

It's hard to figure him out.

 

The numbers don't tell the story, either. For instance, he seems to wilt under pressure, but he has a career .695 OPS Against, but it's .677 Late & Close. He's supposed to be a better 6th, 7th and 8th inning guy than the 9th, but ...

 

.803 in 6th

.666 in 7th

.692 in 8th

.655 in 9th

 

I have less confidence in him now than I had over the last 4 years, but he is comin off his best career year, by the numbers. Of course, those numbers were fed by an amazing start to the season, but still.

 

Best WHIP Seasons:

2021: 1.116

2017: 1.220

2018: 1.265

 

Best K/BB

2021: 4.20

2018: 3.10

2017: 2.96

 

It's not even close!

 

Yes, "enigma" says it all!

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Hang’em Chaim is signing guys on short years as he waits for the minor league team to start cranking out guys yearly.

[mvp 78]

Hang’em Chaim is signing guys on short years as he waits for the minor league team to start cranking out guys yearly.

 

I think it's mainly to minimize the risk from a long term guy providing diminished returns at a high AAV.

[moonslav59]

I think it's mainly to minimize the risk from a long term guy providing diminished returns at a high AAV.

 

I think Bloom will sign the right player at the right cost to a multi-year deal, but he just has not won a bid or has not found "that guy," yet.

 

Maybe 2023 is the "splurge year." Maybe we won't see another splurge under Henry.

 

I do think we'll always be near the tax line, at least, under him.

[Hugh2]

I think Bloom will sign the right player at the right cost to a multi-year deal, but he just has not won a bid or has not found "that guy," yet.

 

Maybe 2023 is the "splurge year." Maybe we won't see another splurge under Henry.

 

I do think we'll always be near the tax line, at least, under him.

 

Blooms entire tenure in Boston to date (which has been short) has been while this team has been in transition and with the mandate to get under the tax limit to reset. He did that while putting together an ALCS contender. I don't think anyone here can rightfully say they know how Bloom is going to operate the next few years with ownership presumably willing to go over the luxury tax limit.

[moonslav59]

Blooms entire tenure in Boston to date (which has been short) has been while this team has been in transition and with the mandate to get under the tax limit to reset. He did that while putting together an ALCS contender. I don't think anyone here can rightfully say they know how Bloom is going to operate the next few years with ownership presumably willing to go over the luxury tax limit.

 

Yes, and it will be interesting to see what he would do with a big winter budget- assuming someday he gets one.

 

Next winter, we lose a lot of salary, and he'll have some big shoes to fill, so even if the directive is to keep the salary more or less the same, he'll have a lot to spend.

[Hugh2]

Yes, and it will be interesting to see what he would do with a big winter budget- assuming someday he gets one.

 

Next winter, we lose a lot of salary, and he'll have some big shoes to fill, so even if the directive is to keep the salary more or less the same, he'll have a lot to spend.

 

This is why I think we're going to add salary somewhere this winter. The Sox over the long term have shown time and time again they're completely comfortable with having one of baseball's highest payroll and going over the luxury tax limit. What they do NOT do, is live over it like LA has. They reset last year, and with more money coming off the books over the next few years they have the ability to go over by a decent amount this year and still have the capacity to get back under if they needed to or wanted to.

[moonslav59]

This is why I think we're going to add salary somewhere this winter. The Sox over the long term have shown time and time again they're completely comfortable with having one of baseball's highest payroll and going over the luxury tax limit. What they do NOT do, is live over it like LA has. They reset last year, and with more money coming off the books over the next few years they have the ability to go over by a decent amount this year and still have the capacity to get back under if they needed to or wanted to.

 

Exactly.

 

I think we stayed under the lux tax 3 years in a row, one time under Henry. already and 2 years once or twice more. This isn't new.

 

I think they look at the trend of the team and decide when spending big maximizes our chance at a ring. It has worked well. Only the 2013 team won without being a major spending season. We did well in 2021 while staying under, too.

 

My guess is, we will try to keep Devers and then replace the lost salaries, next winter, with some big signings.

 

I thought (maybe more hoped) they might view this winter as a splurge winter, because we have a one year window with Bogey, Kike, Eovaldi and others, but it does not look that way, as of now.