The 2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[moonslav59]

Really hoping Hang’em Chaim can set the sights a little higher.

 

He'll grab the best off the scrap heap or take on some salary for something better, maybe.

[moonslav59]

Given the crowded Seattle outfield, the righthanded bat of right fielder Steven Souza Jr. could be available after the nearly 33-year-old veteran pounded his third homer of spring Monday.

 

Or not.

 

BTV allowed the M's to clear their OF with this trade:

 

Dalbec & Lugo

 

for

 

Haniger & Sewald

[notin]

Given the crowded Seattle outfield, the righthanded bat of right fielder Steven Souza Jr. could be available after the nearly 33-year-old veteran pounded his third homer of spring Monday.

 

Or not.

 

 

Souza is so fragile that he could get injured just by being traded…

[harmony]

Could be just the type Bloom swoops on.

In 2015-17 Steven Souza Jr. posted 6.1 fWAR in three seasons with a Tampa Bay Ray club that had Chaim Bloom as vice president for baseball operations.

 

BTV allowed the M's to clear their OF with this trade:

 

Dalbec & Lugo

 

for

 

Haniger & Sewald

Thank goodness BTV does not run the Seattle Mariners.

 

Souza is so fragile that he could get injured just by being traded…

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Tampa traded Meadows for a young back-up infielder and a draft pick. Paredes had a few cups of decaf where he batted .215 with a .592 OPS. Meadows received AL MVP votes the past two full seasons.

 

Giving up both a prospect and a pick probably make such a deal prohibitive in Boston, but isn't that a reasonable cost to add a 26-year-old All-Star outfielder to a core of a future sustained contender? If not, what is?

[Bellhorn04]

Tampa traded Meadows for a young back-up infielder and a draft pick. Paredes had a few cups of decaf where he batted .215 with a .592 OPS. Meadows received AL MVP votes the past two full seasons.

 

Giving up both a prospect and a pick probably make such a deal prohibitive in Boston, but isn't that a reasonable cost to add a 26-year-old All-Star outfielder to a core of a future sustained contender? If not, what is?

 

The ability to trade a pick is new, right?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The ability to trade a pick is new, right?

 

I believe so. Tigers reportedly gave up a "Competitive Balance Round B" pick. The infielder is the equivalent of maybe Arauz, so it has to be all about the pick for Tampa.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe so. Tigers reportedly gave up a "Competitive Balance Round B" pick. The infielder is the equivalent of maybe Arauz, so it has to be all about the pick for Tampa.

 

Leave it to the Rays to be the first to jump on it.

[notin]

I believe so. Tigers reportedly gave up a "Competitive Balance Round B" pick. The infielder is the equivalent of maybe Arauz, so it has to be all about the pick for Tampa.

 

It is possible that Isaac Paredes, whose minor league OPS is some .100 better than Arauz, was considered the better of the two by Tampa…

[notin]

Also if Tampa had a chance to trade for quality prospects, then a deal with Boston makes more sense. It allows them to better their future while simultaneously weakening Boston’s (if only a little). But this looks like a straight salary dump, so why help Boston at all?

[moonslav59]

In 2015-17 Steven Souza Jr. posted 6.1 fWAR in three seasons with a Tampa Bay Ray club that had Chaim Bloom as vice president for baseball operations.

 

 

Thank goodness BTV does not run the Seattle Mariners.

 

 

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

LOL

 

Why does BTV have Souza worth 0?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Also if Tampa had a chance to trade for quality prospects, then a deal with Boston makes more sense. It allows them to better their future while simultaneously weakening Boston’s (if only a little). But this looks like a straight salary dump, so why help Boston at all?

 

I thought about that, and most teams want to avoid helping intra-division rivals... but these are the Rays, who are so confident they're ahead of all dinosaur systems that they won't hesitate to do anything and deal with anyone to keep the machine churning and the industry reeling.

 

ps. they did once give up a hitting prospect/catcher to Boston for a pitcher who threw a 500-foot homer off Acuna's bat... what did the Rays know that Bloom didn't?

Edited April 5, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[mvp 78]

LOL

 

Why does BTV have Souza worth 0?

 

2018: -0.4 fWAR, 84 wRC+

2019: did not pay

2020: 0.1 fWAR, 59 wRC+

2021 -0.2 fWAR, 51 wRC+

 

On a one year deal for 1M.

 

Seems like at age 33, that's a 0 guy to me.

[moonslav59]

2018: -0.4 fWAR, 84 wRC+

2019: did not pay

2020: 0.1 fWAR, 59 wRC+

2021 -0.2 fWAR, 51 wRC+

 

On a one year deal for 1M.

 

Seems like at age 33, that's a 0 guy to me.

 

I wanted to hear harmony's spin.

[mvp 78]

Souza's 2017 skews his career numbers.

 

Of his career fWAR, 69% comes from 2017.

 

42% of all his HR's and 38% of all his SB's were in 2017.

 

The only year his OPS exceeded 720 was 2017.

 

I don't see a fit for him here. Would he even be an upgrade over Refsnyder at this point in his career?

[mvp 78]

I wanted to hear harmony's spin.

 

BTV accepts:

 

Kelenic

Souza

Suarez

White

 

for

 

Dalbec

Duran

[harmony]

LOL

 

Why does BTV have Souza worth 0?

Perhaps because Steven Souza Jr.'s consensus projected 2022 WAR of 0.0.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/steven-souza-jr/5667/stats?position=OF

[harmony]

BTV accepts:

 

Kelenic

Souza

Suarez

White

 

for

 

Dalbec

Duran

Why would the Mariners trade for two players who would be stuck at Triple A Tacoma?

 

ZiPS projects Jarred Duran and Bobby Dalbec with 2022 WAR of 1.1 and 1.0, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

ZiPS projects 16 Seattle hitters with at least 1.1 WAR in 2022:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=11&lg=all&players=

[mvp 78]

Why would the Mariners trade for two players who would be stuck at Triple A Tacoma?

 

ZiPS projects Jarred Duran and Bobby Dalbec with 2022 WAR of 1.1 and 1.0, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

ZiPS projects 16 Seattle hitters with at least 1.1 WAR in 2022:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=11&lg=all&players=

 

BTV accepted the trade.

[harmony]

BTV accepted the trade.

Baseball Trade Values provides entertainment but does not always reflect reality, in part because the site does not take into consideration each team's needs.

 

BTV is generous in its valuations of Bobby Dalbec, who turns 27 in June, and Jarred Duran, who turns 26 in September.

[mvp 78]

Baseball Trade Values provides entertainment but does not always reflect reality, in part because the site does not take into consideration each team's needs.

 

BTV is generous in its valuations of Bobby Dalbec, who turns 27 in June, and Jarred Duran, who turns 26 in September.

 

BTV accepted the trade.

[notin]

Why would the Mariners trade for two players who would be stuck at Triple A Tacoma?

 

ZiPS projects Jarred Duran and Bobby Dalbec with 2022 WAR of 1.1 and 1.0, respectively:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=

 

ZiPS projects 16 Seattle hitters with at least 1.1 WAR in 2022:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips&team=11&lg=all&players=

 

ZIPS also lists the number one comp for Ty France as Paul Konerko, so maybe an occasional grain of salt is needed…

[mvp 78]

ZIPS also lists the number one comp for Ty France as Paul Konerko, so maybe an occasional grain of salt is needed…

 

I mean... If you look at fWAR and wRC+...

[harmony]

ZIPS also lists the number one comp for Ty France as Paul Konerko, so maybe an occasional grain of salt is needed…

FWIW Paul Konerko posted a wRC+ of 118 and 24.0 fWAR in 2,349 career games while Ty France has posted a wRC+ of 121 and 4.5 fWAR in 264 career games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/paul-konerko/242/stats?position=1B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ty-france/17982/stats?position=1B

[notin]

FWIW Paul Konerko posted a wRC+ of 118 and 24.0 fWAR in 2,349 career games while Ty France has posted a wRC+ of 121 and 4.5 fWAR in 264 career games.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/paul-konerko/242/stats?position=1B

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ty-france/17982/stats?position=1B

 

So France is as good as Kinerko was after age and decline set in?

 

That he kept a similar pace for just over 10% of the same duration doesn’t make them equal. Jose Iglesias had a 6 game hitting streak last year. Does that mean he is comparable to Joe DiMaggio?

[harmony]

So France is as good as Kinerko was after age and decline set in?

 

That he kept a similar pace for just over 10% of the same duration doesn’t make them equal. Jose Iglesias had a 6 game hitting streak last year. Does that mean he is comparable to Joe DiMaggio?

That's a question for ZiPS.

 

FWIW Paul Konerko had an OPS+ of 121 through his age 36 season -- including OPS+ of 160, 141 and 130 in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons -- before the decline set in with an OPS+ of 77 over his age 37 and 38 seasons.

Edited April 5, 2022 by harmony

[notin]

That's a question for ZiPS.

 

FWIW Paul Konerko had an ERA+ of 121 through his age 36 season -- including ERA+ of 160, 141 and 130 in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons -- before the decline set in with an ERA+ of 77 over his age 37 and 38 seasons.

 

Apparently he was a better pitcher than I remember…

[notin]

I mean... If you look at fWAR and wRC+...

 

Unless you compare ages and offensive and defensive components of fWAR…

[mvp 78]

Unless you compare ages and offensive and defensive components of fWAR…

 

Konerko had only 2 seasons that were better than France's 2021 and both of those were less than 10% better than France's 2021.

[harmony]

Apparently he was a better pitcher than I remember…

Thank you for the correction.