The Official 2021 ALDS Thread

[YastrzemskI]

The Red Sox have eliminated the Yankees!!! We are off to the races vs Tampa. The Rays are no joke and we have a very steep hill to climb. Let’s discuss what some of the keys to victory are. Boy Nathan Eovaldi showed some heart tonight. Definitely took be back to game three of the World Series in 2018. Him and Plawecki have it going on and we need that to continue.

 

GO SOX!!!! WOOOO HOOOOOO!!!!!!

[iortiz]

As I said, we will win against TB. We are going to play way better than we did recently against them. I have no doubts.

 

Let’s go!

[d-money]

Any idea on our starting rotation for this series? Will they pivetta in the first game or sale? Sale for game 2?

[YastrzemskI]

Any idea on our starting rotation for this series? Will they pivetta in the first game or sale? Sale for game 2?

 

Sale scares me right now…

[Sox75]

$10 says Moon trumps you with "Realistic View 2021 part IV, PART V, Part VI....

 

LOL :0

 

I guess jumping the shark might be...

Over the Moon?

[oldtimer]

$10 says Moon trumps you with "Realistic View 2021 part IV, PART V, Part VI....

 

LOL :0

 

I guess jumping the shark might be...

Over the Moon?

 

Moon is prolific but I appreciate his contributions, however he chooses to make them.

[YastrzemskI]

Sale scares me right now…

 

He had such a bizarre start last time around. Got smacked around a bit but struck out how many? 7? Then that pirouette on the mound? Thank God he didn’t get himself hurt.

[moonslav59]

He had such a bizarre start last time around. Got smacked around a bit but struck out how many? 7? Then that pirouette on the mound? Thank God he didn’t get himself hurt.

 

Yes! 7 Ks out of 7 outs!

 

The 3 BBs were a season high, and 4 hits made it 7 men on base in 14 PAs.

 

We need better than that in his next start (Friday?)

[vegasbob]

Keys to victory over the Rays ? We saw some of them last night

1. Command/control pitching, minimal free passes.

2. Power hitting by the top 5 in the lineup

3. Bullpen success--no starter will get 6 innings complete

4. JDM, can he hit/run effectively. I'm guessing he will be marginal through Sunday. It will be a gut call to roster him

5. Error free defense and baserunning

6. Some contribution from bottom 3 in the order , Vaz/Plawecki, Dalbec, Arroyo

 

Not much to ask for but that assemblage could beat the Rays and just about anyone else

[notin]

Keys to victory over the Rays ? We saw some of them last night

1. Command/control pitching, minimal free passes.

2. Power hitting by the top 5 in the lineup

3. Bullpen success--no starter will get 6 innings complete

4. JDM, can he hit/run effectively. I'm guessing he will be marginal through Sunday. It will be a gut call to roster him

5. Error free defense and baserunning

6. Some contribution from bottom 3 in the order , Vaz/Plawecki, Dalbec, Arroyo

 

Not much to ask for but that assemblage could beat the Rays and just about anyone else

 

 

This is the big question.

 

Now, the Sox have an obvious fallback option with Schwarber at DH, Verdugo in LF, Hernanadez in CF and Arroyo at 2B. The Rays do have three potential LHP (NcClanahan, Yarbourough, Fleming) to start against the Sox, which creates the need to bump Verdugo from the lineup, and this might be the problem. Who would replace him in LF? Even if they move Schwarber to LF, if the bench bats are the same ones for the WC game - Duran (left--handed), Shaw (also left-handed), Arauz (not much of a hitter), Wong, and Plawecki are the platoon options.

 

Hopefully JD is ready to go...

[YastrzemskI]

Keys to victory over the Rays ? We saw some of them last night

1. Command/control pitching, minimal free passes.

2. Power hitting by the top 5 in the lineup

3. Bullpen success--no starter will get 6 innings complete

4. JDM, can he hit/run effectively. I'm guessing he will be marginal through Sunday. It will be a gut call to roster him

5. Error free defense and baserunning

6. Some contribution from bottom 3 in the order , Vaz/Plawecki, Dalbec, Arroyo

 

Not much to ask for but that assemblage could beat the Rays and just about anyone else

 

ZERO walks allowed by the Sox last night! Zero free passes which was one of the keys to the game and sunk the Yankees. If they can keep this mentality throughout and execute it?? They’ll be a tough out in the post season. Everything counts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is the big question.

 

Now, the Sox have an obvious fallback option with Schwarber at DH, Verdugo in LF, Hernanadez in CF and Arroyo at 2B. The Rays do have three potential LHP (NcClanahan, Yarbourough, Fleming) to start against the Sox, which creates the need to bump Verdugo from the lineup, and this might be the problem. Who would replace him in LF? Even if they move Schwarber to LF, if the bench bats are the same ones for the WC game - Duran (left--handed), Shaw (also left-handed), Arauz (not much of a hitter), Wong, and Plawecki are the platoon options.

 

Hopefully JD is ready to go...

 

... or we hope Verdugo is locked into another level, like he claimed he was after last night's swings. If JD is out, we lose our top hitter with 2 Outs, RISP: .349.

 

Our next best batter with 2 Outs, RISP is Verdugo, at .321.

[moonslav59]

This is the big question.

 

Now, the Sox have an obvious fallback option with Schwarber at DH, Verdugo in LF, Hernanadez in CF and Arroyo at 2B. The Rays do have three potential LHP (NcClanahan, Yarbourough, Fleming) to start against the Sox, which creates the need to bump Verdugo from the lineup, and this might be the problem. Who would replace him in LF? Even if they move Schwarber to LF, if the bench bats are the same ones for the WC game - Duran (left--handed), Shaw (also left-handed), Arauz (not much of a hitter), Wong, and Plawecki are the platoon options.

 

Hopefully JD is ready to go...

 

If Schwarber plays LF, Dugo is the bench bat- and a good one!

[moonslav59]

... or we hope Verdugo is locked into another level, like he claimed he was after last night's swings. If JD is out, we lose our top hitter with 2 Outs, RISP: .349.

 

Our next best batter with 2 Outs, RISP is Verdugo, at .321.

 

How much of Dugo's great numbers come vs LHPs?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How much of Dugo's great numbers come vs LHPs?

 

BB-ref doesn't differentiate arms in 2 Outs, RISP (at least, I couldn't find it)... but here are Verdugo's overall career splits: .299 vs RHP, .271 vs LHP.

 

He may be worse vs. bullpen specialists, since here are his career splits vs. starters: .285 vs. RHP, .300 vs. LHP (granted, the latter is in half as many ABs, but it's still a stat worth reconsidering as far as starting him).

[moonslav59]

BB-ref doesn't differentiate arms in 2 Outs, RISP (at least, I couldn't find it)... but here are Verdugo's overall career splits: .299 vs RHP, .271 vs LHP.

 

He may be worse vs. bullpen specialists, since here are his career splits vs. starters: .285 vs. RHP, .300 vs. LHP (granted, the latter is in half as many ABs, but it's still a stat worth reconsidering as far as starting him).

 

The career OPS differential is more telling:

 

.847 v .674

 

Even more so, the RBI numbers:

 

102 v RHP in 897 PAs

25 v LHPs in 416 PAs

 

(Much due to the HR variance: 28 to 5)

 

I'd love having Dugo as a late inning PH'er vs a righty, and with the 3 batter rule, managers now know there can't be a pitching change, soemtimes.

[oldtimer]

The career OPS differential is more telling:

 

.847 v .674

 

Even more so, the RBI numbers:

 

102 v RHP in 897 PAs

25 v LHPs in 416 PAs

 

(Much due to the HR variance: 28 to 5)

 

I'd love having Dugo as a late inning PH'er vs a righty, and with the 3 batter rule, managers now know there can't be a pitching change, soemtimes.

 

This season his OPS vs RH Pitching .893 and LHP .558. Such a marked difference may have him sit tomorrow. If JDM is not available, there aren't many choices.

[mvp 78]

This season his OPS vs RH Pitching .893 and LHP .558. Such a marked difference may have him sit tomorrow. If JDM is not available, there aren't many choices.

 

Vaz starts at C. Plawecki is DH?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This season his OPS vs RH Pitching .893 and LHP .558. Such a marked difference may have him sit tomorrow.

 

Maybe, but sometimes you just gotta ride the hot hand -- like in the first century of organized baseball before Earl Weaver invented analytics (he kept track of individual stats vs. each pitcher and team).

 

I won't get into concepts like "crunch-time" or "rising to the occasion", but managers have been sticking with guys on hot streaks (until they cool off) forever. There's never an uproar when they leave a hot batter up in a statistically "bad" match-up... but how many of us just hate it when a skipper benches someone who only the day before went 4-for-4 or slugged 2 HRs?

[kenmeister]

There's no way JDM could get over a sprained ankle that fast. I can't see him playing in the Tampa games of this series. When it happened to me a couple decades ago, I was on crutches for the first 3 days.

[YastrzemskI]

There's no way JDM could get over a sprained ankle that fast. I can't see him playing in the Tampa games of this series. When it happened to me a couple decades ago, I was on crutches for the first 3 days.

 

Not necessarily. It all depends if it’s a reoccurring injury, how severe, how it responds to treatment. JD was a game time decision for the WC game so what does that tell you? My guess is that if he is not in the lineup for game one.. he will be available for game two. Obviously this is pure speculation.

[moonslav59]

Vaz starts at C. Plawecki is DH?

 

 

I don't think Plawecki's .673 career OPS vs LHPs or even his .794, this year is enough to start him over Dugo.

[notin]

There's no way JDM could get over a sprained ankle that fast. I can't see him playing in the Tampa games of this series. When it happened to me a couple decades ago, I was on crutches for the first 3 days.

 

And I remember you didn’t play any games in the ALDS that year. You also didn’t play in the ALCS either, right?

[moonslav59]

Since the WC playoff system started in 1995, no AL team has ever made the ALCS 5 years in a row.

 

The Astros have a chance, this year. They play CWS round one.

 

(The Braves did it in the NL- I think the first 5 years.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The career OPS differential is more telling:

 

.847 v .674

 

Even more so, the RBI numbers:

 

102 v RHP in 897 PAs

25 v LHPs in 416 PAs

 

(Much due to the HR variance: 28 to 5)

 

I'd love having Dugo as a late inning PH'er vs a righty, and with the 3 batter rule, managers now know there can't be a pitching change, soemtimes.

 

I'm not trying to be too old school here, but batting average means as much to me as OPS when it comes to actually hitting with men on base. Of course I see the value in extra base hits clearing the bases, and I'm not faulting anyone for keeping a rally going by taking a walk. But there's also value in comparing batting averages when a guy actually puts the ball in play.

 

Is Joey Gallo a better "hitter" than Kike, because he has a better OPS, .808 to .786? Gallo batted .199, Hernandez .250. In about the same amount of at bats, Gallo has over a hundred more strikeouts. Kike has 40 less walks, but 28 more hits.

 

The old adage "walks are as good as hits" is a fallacy, because baserunners can only move up one bag on bases on balls. But a lot of guys can go first to third or second to home on singles.

[moonslav59]

I'm not trying to be too old school here, but batting average means as much to me as OPS when it comes to actually hitting with men on base. Of course I see the value in extra base hits clearing the bases, and I'm not faulting anyone for keeping a rally going by taking a walk. But there's also value in comparing batting averages when a guy actually puts the ball in play.

 

Is Joey Gallo a better "hitter" than Kike, because he has a better OPS, .808 to .786? Gallo batted .199, Hernandez .250. In about the same amount of at bats, Gallo has over a hundred more strikeouts. Kike has 40 less walks, but 28 more hits.

 

The old adage "walks are as good as hits" is a fallacy, because baserunners can only move up one bag on bases on balls. But a lot of guys can go first to third or second to home on singles.

 

Walks with men on base are better than outs, so when 2 guys have a .300 BA but one has a .300 OBP and the other .400, who do you want up late in a game with men on base? The guy who makes an out 70% of the time or 60%?

 

Do you want a guys singling or doubling?

 

It matters.

[dgalehouse]

ALDS predictions : Red Sox over Rays. White Sox over Astros. ALCS prediction: BoSox over ChiSox. Red Sox go to the Fall Classic.

[moonslav59]

ALDS predictions : Red Sox over Rays. White Sox over Astros. ALCS prediction: BoSox over ChiSox. Red Sox go to the Fall Classic.

 

Bolder than bold.

[dgalehouse]

Bolder than bold.

 

I am definitely not one of those who thinks the Sox overachieved , nor I am thrilled just to make it this far. This is a very good team. The Rays are good , but they always seem to come up a little short . The Astros and White Sox are good , but definitely beatable.

[iortiz]

ALDS predictions : Red Sox over Rays. White Sox over Astros. ALCS prediction: BoSox over ChiSox. Red Sox go to the Fall Classic.

 

I said BOS vs SFG in the WS and BOS wins in 6.