Wild Card GAME

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Something to consider while searching ESPN previews for continuous replays of Brock Freakin Holt hitting for the cycle at the Stadium, in the most recent playoffs this century between Boston and NY:

 

Red Sox who should pitch: Eovaldi starts and goes a strong 5 or 6, and is relieved in some order by the following ('21 BA/OPS and games pitched vs. NY included) -- Braiser .125/.250, 2; Houck .170/.461, 4; Whitlock .154/.404, 6; Robles .083/.298, 4.

 

Who shouldn't pitch: Ottavino .308/.996, 8.

 

Yankee bullpen vs. Boston: Loaisiga .400/.919, 5; Green .300/.877 6; Luetge .280/.785 7; Chapman .200/.853 7... Peralta .143/.330 4.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure I'd pitch Ottavino in any meaningful innings going forward.

[mvp 78]

@GlobeChadFinn

Sox-Yankees wild card game airs on ESPN at 8 p.m. Tuesday, so … A-Rod. There will be an alternate Statcast-driven broadcast on ESPN2 with @jasonbenetti, @PerezEd, and @mike_petriello on the call.

 

Choose your fighter...

[notin]

I'm not sure I'd pitch Ottavino in any meaningful innings going forward.

 

As many feel the same about Barnes and Richards, the best be that the Sox play an awful lot of meaningless innings late in games from here on out…

[oldtimer]

Our best hitters have been Schwaber, Devers and Verdugo so the Yankees may be doing us a favor starting a right hander. With all the pitching available, I expect the winner will have to hold down the opponents run production. With luck we will get a couple of runs early and Eovaldi will hold the Yankees to 5 or 6 scoreless innings. The pressure of being behind late on either team will be enormous.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yanks are gonna be on the attack early with their bashers and if Eovaldi weathers the early storm, they’ll start grinding ABs. Eovaldi going 5 is gonna be more like it. My bigger concern for the Yanks is that Cole has been limited since his injury and I don’t want Boone to think Cole is some rock solid ace who cannot be touched. I’d have a guy stretching from the opening pitch and if vintage Cole shows up, bonus

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yanks are gonna be on the attack early with their bashers and if Eovaldi weathers the early storm, they’ll start grinding ABs. Eovaldi going 5 is gonna be more like it. My bigger concern for the Yanks is that Cole has been limited since his injury and I don’t want Boone to think Cole is some rock solid ace who cannot be touched. I’d have a guy stretching from the opening pitch and if vintage Cole shows up, bonus

 

Geez, this is quite the sober take on the SECOND RANKED STAR in the playoffs, according to MLB.com's objective writers (the ones who predicted New York to win 850 games this season). Of course, Judge was ranked 4th, and even Stanton was rated ahead of Boston's top player, Devers. Eovaldi, the All-Star pitcher who led the AL in Fielding Independent Pitching, was nowhere to be found in the top 50... but Joey Gallo was #37 because "we all want to see those homers."

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton has been nails in September and when he gets hot, he carries a team. He also murders Fenway for his career. I'd have him higher than anyone on the Yanks for Tuesday's game. For Cole, it really all depends on if he is fully healed. If he is, awesome, roll out there. If he isnt then use the pen to your advantage and get a few innings of high octane cheese out of him. I would tell every pitcher on the team that, if you are given the ball, leave it all out there every pitch. Do not pitch for tomorrow. If you start and only give 3, then give us the best three you can give.

[jacksonianmarch]

Two divergent paths here.

 

For the Sox, they need to hope the offense gets to Cole early and that Eovaldi lasts late.

 

For the Yanks, they need to try to tie or lead by the time Eovaldi leaves. No need to try to blow the sox out early, use the pen difference to your advantage. Getting Eovaldi out early will increase the chances of winning

[mvp 78]

Even when you include his last horrible start, Eovaldi has a 81 tOPS+, 1.102 WHIP, 5.91 k/bb vs the Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even when you include his last horrible start, Eovaldi has a 81 tOPS+, 1.102 WHIP, 5.91 k/bb vs the Yankees.

 

Like I said, we need to get Eovaldi out early.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi's starts against NYY this season:

 

6/04 6 IP, 1 ER, 7k, 0bb

6/26 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 6k, 0bb

7/17 5 IP, 1 ER, 7 k, 1 bb

7/24 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 k, 0 bb

8/17 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 k, 1 bb

9/24 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 0 k, 2 bb

 

I'm not sure I'd have much to complain about if he repeated any of his first 5 starts this year vs the NYY.

[moonslav59]

Eovaldi is the clear cut best starter we could have starting vs the Yanks in an elimination game.

 

While Cole seems like the clear best for the Yanks, we have gotten to him, this year by more than NYY has gotten to big Nate.

 

Sox vs Cole in 2021:

 

5IP 8H 5ER 2BB 6K

6IP 5H 1ER 2BB 11K

5IP 6H 3ER 2BB 8K

6IP 5H 3ER 3BB 6K

 

Total:

4.91 ERA (6.19 at Fenway)

1.500 WHIP (1.625 at Fenway)

.852 OPS Against (.964 at Fenway)

 

Eovaldi

3.71 ERA

1.235 WHIP

.744 OPS Against

 

Of course, past or recent past performance is not always an indicator of what will happen going forward, but I feel good about this match up. It's not going to be a cakewalk, but we have a legit shot at a win.

[mvp 78]

Pete Abraham:

 

Kicking around some Red Sox roster ideas. They can do without a few relievers for one game. Could use an extra infielder with Iglesias ineligible. Maybe bring Duran back to pinch run? Would they want a third catcher? Martinez’s status is a factor.

 

The one-game thing is weird. Sale doesn’t need to be on the roster. Maybe you drop Rodriguez because he pitched yesterday and would start Thursday if they win. Lots of ways to get creative. Arroyo hasn’t played 9 innings since 8-26. Given his injury issues, they’ll need an INF.

 

Don’t be surprised if somebody out of the blue like Arauz ends up active. They really need to keep Hernández in center. Dalbec taking grounders at 2B lately seems more like a “break glass in case of emergency” thing than something they’d want to do. It’ll be interesting.

 

Roster construction could look pretty interesting. I think Arauz and Duran make sense. Plawecki can swing the bat fairly well as a backup, so I'm not sure you'd need the 3rd catcher. Probably not have Sale/ERod active and load up on bench bats. Now that you have the 3 batter rule, it doesn't make too much sense to have 13 relievers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Two divergent paths here.

 

For the Sox, they need to hope the offense gets to Cole early and that Eovaldi lasts late.

 

For the Yanks, they need to try to tie or lead by the time Eovaldi leaves. No need to try to blow the sox out early, use the pen difference to your advantage. Getting Eovaldi out early will increase the chances of winning

 

If the Yankees' bullpen is indeed a difference-maker, it just may be because it gives the edge to Boston. Go back and look at the season stats in the first post of this thread. The Sox have gotten to four of NY's five top relievers. Loaisiga has been hot lately, but Chapman has given up either extra base hits or walks to a third of the Sox batters he's faced.

 

The key of the game could very well be the way the Red Sox use their own pen. Cora can and should stay completely away from combustibles like Richards, Ottavino and Barnes -- who will have the Bombers salivating -- and only throw relievers who've been consistently stingy vs. the Yanks: Whitlock, Braiser, Robles, and hopefully Houck.

 

But no one should be one bit surprised if Cora brings back Pivetta, ERod, Perez or even Sale in late and close situations.

[YastrzemskI]

We need to get off to better starts. As entertaining and dramatic as these come from behind wins are, it is quite a task to expect consistent success that way. It would be nice to get to Cole early and put up 3 or 4. Get him shook at Fenway and then Cora can earn his money the rest of the way. He’s proven that he knows what he’s doing and he does it all calmly and collectively. No worries there. Hope this doesn’t come back to bite me.

[bkzwhitestrican]

This is going to be super stressful. To either knock out or be knocked out of the playoffs by your worst enemy, elation or despair, good (Yankees of course ) vs. evil.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is going to be super stressful. To either knock out or be knocked out of the playoffs by your worst enemy, elation or despair, good (Yankees of course ) vs. evil.

 

Win or lose (and I'm not conceding anything), this match-up of the heavy preseason favorite vs. last year's doormat should benefit Red Sox fans in the short run. Either way it will put national spotlight back on the rivalry, fuel the fanbase and hopefully, ownership's appetite to get things done this winter to ensure Boston is better in 2022.

[mvp 78]

This is going to be super stressful. To either knock out or be knocked out of the playoffs by your worst enemy, elation or despair, good (Yankees of course ) vs. evil.

 

The road to the WS could be:

 

Beat your arch rival

Beat the ******* no-name Rays whose stadium is filled up by your own fans

Beat the cheating no-good Astros

Beat those dirty Dodgers who are buying titles (5 of the 6 highest team payrolls ever are LAD)

[redsox87871]

Dj Lemahieu out vs. Nathan Eovaldi. .526 .526 .737 1.263 this season.

[Maxbialystock]

Our best hitters have been Schwaber, Devers and Verdugo so the Yankees may be doing us a favor starting a right hander. With all the pitching available, I expect the winner will have to hold down the opponents run production. With luck we will get a couple of runs early and Eovaldi will hold the Yankees to 5 or 6 scoreless innings. The pressure of being behind late on either team will be enormous.

 

Good stuff.

[Maxbialystock]

Yanks are gonna be on the attack early with their bashers and if Eovaldi weathers the early storm, they’ll start grinding ABs. Eovaldi going 5 is gonna be more like it. My bigger concern for the Yanks is that Cole has been limited since his injury and I don’t want Boone to think Cole is some rock solid ace who cannot be touched. I’d have a guy stretching from the opening pitch and if vintage Cole shows up, bonus

 

You are no doubt right about the hitting. It certainly worked last time vs. Eovaldi.

 

As for Cole, the other reason not to leave him in is the depth of the Yankees bullpen. Huge win yesterday vs the Rays--who had just taken the first two games--thanks to the Yankees bullpen going 5.2 scoreless innings.

[Maxbialystock]

Geez, this is quite the sober take on the SECOND RANKED STAR in the playoffs, according to MLB.com's objective writers (the ones who predicted New York to win 850 games this season). Of course, Judge was ranked 4th, and even Stanton was rated ahead of Boston's top player, Devers. Eovaldi, the All-Star pitcher who led the AL in Fielding Independent Pitching, was nowhere to be found in the top 50... but Joey Gallo was #37 because "we all want to see those homers."

 

jacksonianmarch is normally very balanced in his take on both teams. Who cares about those other commentators?

 

Before the first pitch, this is a really great game, given the decades-old rivalry and the ups and downs of this season.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Yeah Duran makes a lot of sense, just in case the Red Sox need one of those Dave Roberts moments. And if Sale and E-Rod can't pitch, why bother putting them on the roster.

 

It is interesting that Ottavino is on the outs (a 7.00 ERA in Sept) -- the same exact thing happened when he was a Yankee. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Yankees lost confidence in Ottavino and didn't want to use him in a big game. At least Ottavino is consistent.....

 

The Yankees won the Ottavino trade--he hasn't been a good enough pitcher for the money and Frank German sucks.

Edited October 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah Duran makes a lot of sense, just in case the Red Sox need one of those Dave Roberts moments. And if Sale and E-Rod can't pitch, why bother putting them on the roster.

 

It is interesting that Ottavino is on the outs (a 7.00 ERA in Sept) -- the same exact thing happened when he was a Yankee. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the Yankees lost confidence in Ottavino and didn't want to use him in a big game. At least Ottavino is consistent.....

 

The Yankees won the Ottavino trade--he hasn't been a good enough pitcher for the money and Frank German sucks.

 

Yanks figured out in 2019 that Frank German wasn't starter material. The fact that the sox keep trying him in the rotation is why he sucks. He's got enormous potential, it just will be in the pen

[Maxbialystock]

Two divergent paths here.

 

For the Sox, they need to hope the offense gets to Cole early and that Eovaldi lasts late.

 

For the Yanks, they need to try to tie or lead by the time Eovaldi leaves. No need to try to blow the sox out early, use the pen difference to your advantage. Getting Eovaldi out early will increase the chances of winning

 

Don't put too much into the Yankees slaughtering the Sox, especially Eovaldi, 8-10 days ago at Fenway.

 

With Whitlock back and Cora willing to use his other starters in the bullpen, I think the pitching will be pretty even. I do think Cole is better than Eovaldi, but he wasn't so hot last time out and September this year has been his worst ERA (5.13) month. In his last three starts (Toronto, Boston, Cleveland) he has gone 17.2 innings, which is good, but given up 15 earned runs, which isn't.

[mvp 78]

Yanks figured out in 2019 that Frank German wasn't starter material. The fact that the sox keep trying him in the rotation is why he sucks. He's got enormous potential, it just will be in the pen

 

Amount of relief appearances for German in Yankees in 2019: 1.

 

Amount of relief appearances for German in Red Sox in 2021: 6.

 

After the Yankees had him come out in relief, THEY WENT BACK AND HAD HIM FINISH THE YEAR WITH 7 MORE STARTS.

[jacksonianmarch]

Amount of relief appearances for German in Yankees in 2019: 1.

 

Amount of relief appearances for German in Red Sox in 2021: 6.

 

After the Yankees had him come out in relief, THEY WENT BACK AND HAD HIM FINISH THE YEAR WITH 7 MORE STARTS.

 

They wouldn't have dealt him for nothing if they thought he was any good. Info on him from the time he was drafted was that he was a reliever in waiting. Yanks spent 2019 trying to get him to start. He failed. My bet is, if he stayed in the Yankee system, he would have been a pen arm

[Maxbialystock]

Rather than start a separate thread, here is my Sox postseason 26 player roster: 13 position players, 13 pitchers.

 

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe

Devers

Bogaerts

Arroyo

Dalbec

Vazquez

Schwarber

Plawecki

Duran

Shaw

JDM (or Santana if JDM can't play)

 

Eovaldi

Sale

ERod

Pivetta

Houck

Whitlock

Brasier

Robles

Sawamura

Hernandez

Barnes

Ottavino

Perez

[moonslav59]

With a day off, one game, day off, 2 games, day off, 2 games, day off, one game, I'm not sure why 13 pitchers are needed, but my guess is that is what will happen.

 

Is Davis still on the IL? I'd prefer him to Perez.

 

Is Iggy ineligible? Even with an injury to someone?