9/22 Mets @ SOX 7:10PM

[mvp 78]

Oh, I'm not saying the Sox share my SS defense bias.

 

I do think they traded for OCab to seriously upgrade SS D.

 

They also had Reese, Cora, Alex Gonzalez and a few other good defensive SSs, some times.

 

Renteria was supposed to be a plus defender, but was injured the year we had him.

 

They had Reese in 2004. He could have just slid over if they wanted to.

 

They saw that Nomar was going to be out 50% of the time down the stretch in 2004. They needed to move on and found a more complete SS. I don't think it was solely due to defense. If Nomar wasn't injured, they would have stuck it out with him.

[mvp 78]

You want to pay Bogey more money, and add 2 more years until

He’s 36? I don’t think the Sox will do that, and no more opt outs in contracts, and no Devers would not take 6/120, because he would make more through arbitration.

 

The Sox may not want to do that. I would do it though.

 

Devers won't make more in arbitration. He only made 4.5M this year and only has two arb years left. They aren't bumping him up to 20M.

[mvp 78]

Betts didn't get 20M in arbitration until after his 10 fWAR season.

 

I love Raffy, but he's a 5 fWAR guy and will probably get about 10M per year in arb the next 2 seasons.

[Old Red]

The Sox may not want to do that. I would do it though.

 

Devers won't make more in arbitration. He only made 4.5M this year and only has two arb years left. They aren't bumping him up to 20M.

 

They go up pretty fast in arbitration, and he may get 20M, or lose to after this year.

[Maxbialystock]

You want to pay Bogey more money, and add 2 more years until

He’s 36? I don’t think the Sox will do that, and no more opt outs in contracts, and no Devers would not take 6/120, because he would make more through arbitration.

 

I'm inclined to agree on both points. I very much want to keep both Bogey and Raffie, but consider $30M/year for 7 or more years to be insane if only because all that money is guaranteed regardless of injury or diminished performance.

 

Indeed, MLB teams--and I think the current Dodgers are a great example of this--survive and/or thrive on players who have not yet reached free agency but who are already performing, in some cases, exceptionally well. Mike Trout notwithstanding, my impression is that almost every $300M contract is wasted money. Nevertheless, those contracts can be affordable in the right market and provided other players on that team are paid a whole lot less--those still under team control.

[mvp 78]

They go up pretty fast in arbitration, and he may get 20M, or lose to after this year.

 

He's not getting 20M this offseason. No way. Bellinger got 12 after an MVP season. Raffy is not that guy.

[Maxbialystock]

Betts didn't get 20M in arbitration until after his 10 fWAR season.

 

I love Raffy, but he's a 5 fWAR guy and will probably get about 10M per year in arb the next 2 seasons.

 

I agree Raffy might be a 5 fWAR guy, but disagree about Betts. Yes, he got $20M after his 10.7 WAR year in 2018, but he also had a 9.5 WAR year in 2016, after which he was paid $950K in 2017.

[Old Red]

I'm inclined to agree on both points. I very much want to keep both Bogey and Raffie, but consider $30M/year for 7 or more years to be insane if only because all that money is guaranteed regardless of injury or diminished performance.

 

Indeed, MLB teams--and I think the current Dodgers are a great example of this--survive and/or thrive on players who have not yet reached free agency but who are already performing, in some cases, exceptionally well. Mike Trout notwithstanding, my impression is that almost every $300M contract is wasted money. Nevertheless, those contracts can be affordable in the right market and provided other players on that team are paid a whole lot less--those still under team control.

 

Agree 100%. I know I’m in the minority, but I would not give out a 300M contract to anybody. The Dodgers won last year, but I think they still would have won without Mookie, and Mookie certainly has not earned his big contract this year, and yes he has been injured, but will break down even more as he gets older.

[mvp 78]

I agree Raffy might be a 5 fWAR guy, but disagree about Betts. Yes, he got $20M after his 10.7 WAR year in 2018, but he also had a 9.5 WAR year in 2016, after which he was paid $950K in 2017.

 

The 950k was a pre arb salary.

[Maxbialystock]

The Sox may not want to do that. I would do it though.

 

Devers won't make more in arbitration. He only made 4.5M this year and only has two arb years left. They aren't bumping him up to 20M.

 

Agree. No way he gets $20M in arbitration. That said, I still think he is the best hitter on this team and that he has pretty good range at 3b. The problem is with the errors--also, potentially, with his weight, which this year is 240 lbs at 6 feet tall.

[Bellhorn04]

Agree. No way he gets $20M in arbitration. That said, I still think he is the best hitter on this team and that he has pretty good range at 3b. The problem is with the errors--also, potentially, with his weight, which this year is 240 lbs at 6 feet tall.

 

The much maligned JD Martinez is the best hitter on the team, career-wise.

 

Career OPS/OPS+

 

JD 882/134

Devers 843/119

 

And Bogaerts is the best hitter on the team this year.

[Maxbialystock]

The 950k was a pre arb salary.

 

True. But the fact that he had already had one big WAR year gave his agent additional leverage for 2019. In his seven full seasons to date, Mookie's WAR's have been 6 in 2015, 9.6 in 2016, 6.4 in 2017, 10.9 in 2018, 6.8 in 2019, an astounding 3.4 (in just 55 games) in 2020, and 4.6 this year. Good as those are, those numbers are nowhere near as good as Mike Trout's.

[mvp 78]

True. But the fact that he had already had one big WAR year gave his agent additional leverage for 2019. In his seven full seasons to date, Mookie's WAR's have been 6 in 2015, 9.6 in 2016, 6.4 in 2017, 10.9 in 2018, 6.8 in 2019, an astounding 3.4 (in just 55 games) in 2020, and 4.6 this year. Good as those are, those numbers are nowhere near as good as Mike Trout's.

 

Ok, but the question was if Raffy would get 20M in arbitration or not. I say no.

[mvp 78]

Agree. No way he gets $20M in arbitration. That said, I still think he is the best hitter on this team and that he has pretty good range at 3b. The problem is with the errors--also, potentially, with his weight, which this year is 240 lbs at 6 feet tall.

 

He's a good player. I think they should offer him 6/120.

[Maxbialystock]

The much maligned JD Martinez is the best hitter on the team, career-wise.

 

Career OPS/OPS+

 

JD 882/134

Devers 843/119

 

And Bogaerts is the best hitter on the team this year.

 

Meh. My fear is that JDM's best years are behind him.

 

As for this year, Devers has the most total bases on the Sox, 292 (Bogey has 258), the most rbi's (105 to 79), and the most dingers (34 to 23). Bogey has the higher OPS, .889 to .879, which to my eye is a pretty small difference. Granted, Devers has played more games than Bogey, 147 vs. 135, but I think more games is a legitimate factor in comparing hitters.

 

Interestingly, Bogey's overall WAR is 4.9 to Devers' 3.3. That's mostly because Bogey's DWAR is +.1 and Raffy's is -.7. Devers has more range, but also 21 errors to Bogaerts' 8 and despite Bogaerts having 496 total chances to Devers 416.

Edited September 23, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

The much maligned JD Martinez is the best hitter on the team, career-wise.

 

Career OPS/OPS+

 

JD 882/134

Devers 843/119

 

And Bogaerts is the best hitter on the team this year.

 

I really don't get why JD has been so maligned, this year. I get how he has not hit like the 2018 JD, but he's still a pro among pros.

 

I can see him exploding in the playoffs, but don't confuse that with me saying he has clutch skills. LOL

[moonslav59]

Meh. My fear is that JDM's best years are behind him.

 

As for this year, Devers has the most total bases on the Sox, 292 (Bogey has 258), the most rbi's (105 to 79), and the most dingers (34 to 23). Bogey has the higher OPS, .889 to .879, which to my eye is a pretty small difference. Granted, Devers has played more games than Bogey, 147 vs. 135, but I think more games is a legitimate factor in comparing hitters.

 

Being worse than Devers and Bogey is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

He's better than Dalbec and Renfroe- two guys you praise often.

[Old Red]

I really don't get why JD has been so maligned, this year. I get how he has not hit like the 2018 JD, but he's still a pro among pros.

 

I can see him exploding in the playoffs, but don't confuse that with me saying he has clutch skills. LOL

 

JD is a pro, but I guess he’s got more criticism this year, because his numbers even though he will get 100 rbi aren’t quite as good as previous years, and not counting 2020. I hope he does get hot in the playoffs.

[Bellhorn04]

Meh. My fear is that JDM's best years are behind him.

 

As for this year, Devers has the most total bases on the Sox, 292 (Bogey has 258), the most rbi's (105 to 79), and the most dingers (34 to 23). Bogey has the higher OPS, .889 to .879, which to my eye is a pretty small difference. Granted, Devers has played more games than Bogey, 147 vs. 135, but I think more games is a legitimate factor in comparing hitters.

 

Meh.

 

Devers has an OPS of .725 since August 18.

 

Talksox wisdom says that means he should be on the bench.

[mvp 78]

Meh. My fear is that JDM's best years are behind him.

 

As for this year, Devers has the most total bases on the Sox, 292 (Bogey has 258), the most rbi's (105 to 79), and the most dingers (34 to 23). Bogey has the higher OPS, .889 to .879, which to my eye is a pretty small difference. Granted, Devers has played more games than Bogey, 147 vs. 135, but I think more games is a legitimate factor in comparing hitters.

 

Xander WRC+ 137

Devers WRC+ 131

[Old Red]

I agree Raffy might be a 5 fWAR guy, but disagree about Betts. Yes, he got $20M after his 10.7 WAR year in 2018, but he also had a 9.5 WAR year in 2016, after which he was paid $950K in 2017.

 

Speaking of Betts does the trade look worse this year than it did a year ago at this time? Verdugo hasn’t had the year he had last year, and Downs only hit about 170 in the minors.

[mvp 78]

Meh.

 

Devers has an OPS of .725 since August 18.

 

Talksox wisdom says that means he should be on the bench.

 

Dalbec to 3b confirmed.

[mvp 78]

Speaking of Betts does the trade look worse this year than it did a year ago at this time? Verdugo hasn’t had the year he had last year, and Downs only hit about 170 in the minors.

 

Yes.

 

Verdugo has taken a small step back or at least slightly underperformed. Verdugo is still a starting regular, but he's not a potential All Star going forward. Downs and Wong haven't shown much at all to this point.

[Bellhorn04]

Speaking of Betts does the trade look worse this year than it did a year ago at this time? Verdugo hasn’t had the year he had last year, and Downs only hit about 170 in the minors.

 

OTOH Betts has missed a lot of games this year with an assortment of minor injuries.

 

To answer your question I don't think it looks any better or worse.

 

Betts is still a great player and 12 years is still a hell of a long time.

 

Trout missing most of the season is another reminder of the crazy amount of risk in this deals.

 

(All of which has more to do with the extension than the trade.)

[moonslav59]

JD is a pro, but I guess he’s got more criticism this year, because his numbers even though he will get 100 rbi aren’t quite as good as previous years, and not counting 2020. I hope he does get hot in the playoffs.

 

It really shouldn't have to do with expectations, though. I know why it does.

 

Right now, JD is slightly below Devers and Bogey in OPS, but it's been in flux, all year. With OBP counting more than SLG, Bogey has been our best hitter, but not by a whole lot.

 

TB/PA

292/624 Devers .468

281/600 JD (even with Devers per PA) .468

256/564 Bogey (close) .454

244/535 Renfroe (close and better than Bogey).456

[Bellhorn04]

I really don't get why JD has been so maligned, this year.

 

Because he swings at those low outside breaking balls all the time!

[moonslav59]

XBH

 

71 Devers

69 JD

61 Renfroe

58 Bogey

56 Kike

49 Dalbec

46 Verdugo

 

LD%

30 Bogey

28 JD

25 Kike

24 Verdugo

24 Devers

23.8 League average

23.5 dalbec

22.2 Vaz

 

Hard hit%

51 Devers

49 JD

48 Dalbec

45 Renfroe

43 Verdugo

43 Kike

42 Bogey

39.2 league

31.3 Vaz

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Because he swings at those low outside breaking balls all the time!

 

Recently, yes, and some for nice hits!

 

[Maxbialystock]

Oh, I'm not saying the Sox share my SS defense bias.

 

I do think they traded for OCab to seriously upgrade SS D.

 

They also had Reese, Cora, Alex Gonzalez and a few other good defensive SSs, some times.

 

Renteria was supposed to be a plus defender, but was injured the year we had him.

 

I think Bogaerts is the ideal Sox shortstop because of his solid hitting and low error rate and despite his lack of range.

 

Sox management has been more than happy to get rid of good fielding shortstops, who almost never last more than a season or so. See, for example, Orlando Cabrera, Jose Iglesias, and Alex Gonzalez. Or even Stephen Drew.

[mvp 78]

Because he swings at those low outside breaking balls all the time!

 

He's a 2.6 fWAR guy who struggles in the field. He also makes a lot of money and could be leaving after this year. Sox fans just don't see him as a long term fit. He's a hired gun.