A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Kiké had a 110 WRC+. Should he not be the leadoff hitter?

 

 

I loved the .372 OBP after June 19th.

 

(not directed at you, MVP)

[Bellhorn04]

Because of April/March. He had 4 so-so months and showing clearly, that he is declining.

 

He is not an elite 3-4 bat anymore.

 

May - Oct:

806 OPS, 111 WRC+

 

He was Anthony Rizzo for the remainder of the season. Ok?

 

I thought JD's 2021 postseason line of 344/447/688 was acceptable.

[moonslav59]

I thought JD's 2021 postseason line of 344/447/688 was acceptable.

 

So, if you add that to his May-OCT numbers, he'd be pretty damn good!

[moonslav59]

Now you're mixing up posts about JD and the Jays.

 

LOL. Distracted.

 

I think JD will do fine, and the Jays win the AL East. (Sox 2nd)

[mvp 78]

I thought JD's 2021 postseason line of 344/447/688 was acceptable.

 

Ended his season with 0-10, 6 K, 3 L's. Clearly in decline!

 

Also, that bum got on base zero times in a do or die situation against NYY in the WC play in. Pffft...

[iortiz]

I don't predict good numbers for JD this year. Hopefully I'm dead wrong though.

[moonslav59]

I don't predict good numbers for JD this year. Hopefully I'm dead wrong though.

 

He might see some normal age decline, but are you thinking he'll be under .800 for the season?

[mvp 78]

I don't predict good numbers for JD this year. Hopefully I'm dead wrong though.

 

The lowest prediction for JD this year is ZiPS at:

 

342/482/824, WRC+ 117, 2.3 fWAR

 

Bo Bichette last year: 343/484/827

[moonslav59]

Here's what the best 3 teams in MLB had for their 3-5 slot hitters' OPS:

 

SFG

3. 817

4. 813

5. 879

 

TBR

3. 645

4. 833

5. 722

 

LAD

3. 905

4. 765

5. 746

 

JD .867 (.883 3rd and .945 5th. He was .352 4th in just 35 PAs)

.815 from June 2nd.

.815 since July 6th.

.838 from Aug 3rd.

.899 from Aug 28th.

(not counting the 1.135 playoff OPS in 32 ABs)

Edited March 30, 2022 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

He might see some normal age decline, but are you thinking he'll be under .800 for the season?

 

Something around 780, yes. His velocity in his swing is clearly not there anymore. Not sure how he can fix this.

[iortiz]

The lowest prediction for JD this year is ZiPS at:

 

342/482/824, WRC+ 117, 2.3 fWAR

 

Bo Bichette last year: 343/484/827

 

Hopefully they are right.

[moonslav59]

Something around 780, yes. His velocity in his swing is clearly not there anymore. Not sure how he can fix this.

 

How is it so "clear?" Can you see the slowed bat speed?

 

How did he hit so well at the end of the season, the playoffs and the season as a whole, with such a reduced bat speed?

 

Are you assuming his bat speed with keep slowing down?

[moonslav59]

Something around 780, yes. His velocity in his swing is clearly not there anymore. Not sure how he can fix this.

 

.780 is better than most 3 and 4 hitters.

[iortiz]

How is it so "clear?" Can you see the slowed bat speed?

 

How did he hit so well at the end of the season, the playoffs and the season as a whole, with such a reduced bat speed?

 

Are you assuming his bat speed with keep slowing down?

 

It's a gift I got. The Eyes Chico, they never lie LOL

 

I think his bat speed has been a fair concern that has been discussed here and there.

 

Assuming Devers, Xander and Story won't leadoff, JD shouldn't hit above them in my book.

[iortiz]

.780 is better than most 3 and 4 hitters.

 

I expect Xander, Devers, Story and even Kike, posting above 800 this year.

[Bellhorn04]

How is it so "clear?" Can you see the slowed bat speed?

 

How did he hit so well at the end of the season, the playoffs and the season as a whole, with such a reduced bat speed?

 

Are you assuming his bat speed with keep slowing down?

 

I remember when Papi lost his bat speed forever, in 2009 I think it was...

[notin]

Because of April/March. He had 4 so-so months and showing clearly, that he is declining.

 

He is not an elite 3-4 bat anymore.

 

 

His .847 OPS in September was “so so”?

[moonslav59]

I remember when Papi lost his bat speed forever, in 2009 I think it was...

 

I remember softlaw wanting him demoted, then he blasted me for suggesting we move him down to the 6 or 7 slot, until he worked through his issues.

[moonslav59]

I expect Xander, Devers, Story and even Kike, posting above 800 this year.

 

My fearless predictions will be coming out soon. (spoiler alert: JD will be over .825)

[mvp 78]

Something around 780, yes. His velocity in his swing is clearly not there anymore. Not sure how he can fix this.

 

JD ended at 789 for those keeping track at home.

 

iOrtiz: 1

ZiPS/Steamer: 0

[mvp 78]

The 2021 Rotation vs the 2022 Rotation by GS'd

 

Possibility:

 

GS 2021>2022

 

32 Eovaldi 32

31 ERod > *(+10 Sale, +10 Houck, +9 Whitlock,+2 Pivetta= 32)

30 Pivetta 32*

22 Richards 22 Wacha

22 Perez 22 Hill

13 Houck 23*

9 Sale 19*

3 Peacock/Seabold/Craford combined> 12 Whitlock*

 

Of course, we almost certainly will see some starts by one of more of these guys or someone I did not mention: Crawford, Seabold, Winckowski, Bello.

 

 

Biggest changes to this forecast were Sale -19, Houck -19 and Eovaldi -10. That's a lot of starts to hand over to Winckowski +14, Crawford +12, Bello +11 and Seabold +5.

[mvp 78]

Can we cut Wacha now and save him the humiliation?

 

Good call, he could have latched onto a team that didn't end up in last and the Sox could have gotten a better draft pick since their rotation would have been even worse.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Dave Bush tells @jcmccaffrey that the Sox are open to spreading out the high leverage relief innings over multiple guys, playing match-ups, and being open-minded about who's pitching at the end of games. Thinks it'll be a benefit in the long run.

 

Might have to have some sort of committee for people that could close?

 

This did not work as planned.

[harmony]

Stanford professor Carolyn Bertozzi, a co-laureate of this year's Nobel Prize in chemistry, is a Red Sox fan:

 

 

It was not a bad year for everybody.

[a700hitter]

This did not work as planned.

Unless the plan was to suck. Then it worked out perfectly.

[mvp 78]

Unless the plan was to suck. Then it worked out perfectly.

 

They sucked enough to get the fanbase upset, but not enough to get another top pick like Mayer. If you're going to suck, you go all out. That's why I was all in on trading JD, Vaz, Eovaldi and others in the offseason or early on in the year.

[Bellhorn04]

They sucked enough to get the fanbase upset, but not enough to get another top pick like Mayer. If you're going to suck, you go all out. That's why I was all in on trading JD, Vaz, Eovaldi and others in the offseason or early on in the year.

 

That would have been the smart move. And it would also have completely contradicted the mission statement of "competing while rebuilding".

[mvp 78]

That would have been the smart move. And it would also have completely contradicted the mission statement of "competing while rebuilding".

 

That mission statement in itself is a contradiction, or at least such a tight rope to walk that is near impossible to do year in and year out.

[moonslav59]

That mission statement in itself is a contradiction, or at least such a tight rope to walk that is near impossible to do year in and year out.

 

Most of us thought the opening day roster was competitive enough to make the playoffs, "while we were rebuilding."

 

I agree, once it became clear that were were not going to win a ring, this year, and to me, it was a long shot to even make the playoffs before the deadline, we should have done, at minimum, just enough to reset the tax.

 

Keeping the fans from becoming irate was the tightrope walk, but I think it was worth the try, and for me, this is NOT hindsight talk.

 

Probably, trading everyone not nailed down was the best move. Bite the bullet on fan disgust, but then produce a winning team in 2023 and a system set up to keep winning, and the fans would shut up real quickly- like they did in 2013.

[notin]

That mission statement in itself is a contradiction, or at least such a tight rope to walk that is near impossible to do year in and year out.

 

It’s been done before. Epstein, when he took over…