A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

It’s hard enough to predict how well journeymen RPers will do in any given year in MLB, but I have to think they have better odds in Japan, unless they have serious adjustment to culture problems.

 

I think he will be fine, but the transition to Japan and the k league there has been unpredictable. We’ve seen mediocre MLB players like Randy Bass going over there and become superstars who threatened league records and also MLB All Stars like Dave Nilsson just turn into complete flops that lasted less than one season…

[notin]

How the 2022 roster projects today

 

C: Vazquez

1b: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2b: K Hernandez (vs RHP), Arroyo (vs LHP)

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley (vs RHP), K Hernandez (vs LHP)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Arauz, OF?

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta, Wacha

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez, Davis

 

 

So as you can see, there should be some activity once transactions resume. Heck the only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is a Jeisson Rosario…

Edited December 26, 2021 by notin

[moonslav59]

How the 2022 roster projects today

 

C: Vazquez

1b: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2b: K Hernandez (vs RHP), Arroyo (vs LHP)

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley (vs RHP), K Hernandez (vs LHP)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Arauz, OF?

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta, Wacha

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez, Davis

 

 

So as you can see, there should be some activity once transactions resume. Heck the only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is a Jeisson Rosario…

 

Big if, but if Arroyo stays healthy, he may play 2B full time as Duran sits vs LHPs and maybe even vs RHPs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How the 2022 roster projects today

 

C: Vazquez

1b: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2b: K Hernandez (vs RHP), Arroyo (vs LHP)

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley (vs RHP), K Hernandez (vs LHP)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Arauz, OF?

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta, Wacha

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez, Davis

 

 

So as you can see, there should be some activity once transactions resume. Heck the only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is a Jeisson Rosario…

 

So far, the Red Sox' MLB roster has lost its 2021 top winner from the starting rotation, its top OPS man from the batting order, and its top righthanded HR bat.

 

So far, Boston has added Hill, Wacha and Bradley -- a trio with a combined '21 WAR of -0.1.

[Bellhorn04]

So far, the Red Sox' MLB roster has lost its 2021 top winner from the starting rotation, its top OPS man from the batting order, and its top righthanded HR bat.

 

Nicely mixed and matched.

[harmony]

How the 2022 roster projects today

 

C: Vazquez

1b: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2b: K Hernandez (vs RHP), Arroyo (vs LHP)

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley (vs RHP), K Hernandez (vs LHP)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Arauz, OF?

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta, Wacha

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez, Davis

 

 

So as you can see, there should be some activity once transactions resume. Heck the only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is a Jeisson Rosario…

At what point does Triston Casas make his MLB debut?

 

Casas is 44 days older today than Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic was when the latter made his MLB debut on May 13, 2021.

 

Casas has played nine of his 208 minor league games at the Triple A level. When he made his MLB debut Kelenic had played six of his 179 minor league games at the Triple A level (although Kelenic was later sent down for another 24 games with Tacoma).

 

In 2021 Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 77 games at Double A and a wRC+ 0f 130 in nine games at Triple A. In 2019 Kelenic posted a wRC+ of 133 in 21 games at Double A and in 2021 posted a wRC+ of 143 in 30 games at Triple A.

 

Kelenic posted a dreadful .151/.236/.272/.507 line in his first 64 MLB games before posting a .248/.331/.524/.854 line in his final 29 games. Fielding metrics and the naked eye gave his outfield defense negative marks.

 

Steamer projects Casas with a 2022 WAR of 0.3 and wRC+ of 110 in 32 games (.258/.337/.450/.787) while projecting Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.6 and a wRC+ of 103 in 131 games (.232/.307/.424/.731). ZiPS has not released its 2022 Red Sox projections but projects Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.1 and OPS+ of 101 (.229/.297/.432/.729).

 

Marcel offers no projection for Casas but projects Kelenic with a 2022 line of .211/.293/.382/.675 in 389 plate appearances.

 

Casas and Kelenic are lefthanded hitters taken out of high school with the 26th and sixth picks of the 2018 MLB draft. Their development should be interesting to follow.

[mvp 78]

A guy like Joe Kelly makes sense: throws 100 mph, has AL East experience. It's unclear whether he'd want to leave his west coast again, but due to climate change, the northeast isn't really so bad in comparison weather-wise any more...

 

Solid disagree.

[mvp 78]

How the 2022 roster projects today

 

C: Vazquez

1b: Dalbec (and eventually Casas)

2b: K Hernandez (vs RHP), Arroyo (vs LHP)

3b: Devers

SS: Bogaerts

LF: Duran

CF: Bradley (vs RHP), K Hernandez (vs LHP)

RF: Verdugo

DH: Martinez

 

BN: Plawecki, Arauz, OF?

 

SP: Sale, Eovaldi, Hill, Pivetta, Wacha

BP: Houck, Whitlock, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Sawamura, D Hernandez, Davis

 

 

So as you can see, there should be some activity once transactions resume. Heck the only other outfielder on the 40 man roster is a Jeisson Rosario…

 

They are going to get another RH OFer. Bloom will add a goulash of relievers. Unsure about starting pitching though.

[mvp 78]

So far, the Red Sox' MLB roster has lost its 2021 top winner from the starting rotation, its top OPS man from the batting order, and its top righthanded HR bat.

 

So far, Boston has added Hill, Wacha and Bradley -- a trio with a combined '21 WAR of -0.1.

 

Top right handed OPS:

Motter 1.262

Whitlock 1.000

Iglesias .915

Wong .896

JD .867

Bogaerts .863

Renfroe .816

Dalbec .792

Kiké .786

 

Schwarber was only a partial year fill in. I'm not sold that his 41 games isn't something the Sox couldn't add again next deadline.

 

What is the fixation on Renfroe's HR and RBI total? He was an ok hitter and a poor fielder. He's a very flawed player that the Sox got for cheap and dealt for prospects.

 

It's harder to even care about starting pitcher wins in 2021. ERod had 13 wins. That's it. Who cares? Was his season better than Eovaldi's? His WHIP was worse than Nasty Nate, Pivetta and even a rough version of Sale. ERod had the same ERA+ as Martin Perez. Either Houck or Whitlock could be as good as ERod in the rotation in 2022.

[mvp 78]

Nicely mixed and matched.

 

It's a lie though. Their top OPS man was either Taylor Motter (all batters) or Devers (qualified batters).

[mvp 78]

At what point does Triston Casas make his MLB debut?

 

Casas is 44 days older today than Seattle outfielder Jarred Kelenic was when the latter made his MLB debut on May 13, 2021.

 

Casas has played nine of his 208 minor league games at the Triple A level. When he made his MLB debut Kelenic had played six of his 179 minor league games at the Triple A level (although Kelenic was later sent down for another 24 games with Tacoma).

 

In 2021 Casas posted a wRC+ of 142 in 77 games at Double A and a wRC+ 0f 130 in nine games at Triple A. In 2019 Kelenic posted a wRC+ of 133 in 21 games at Double A and in 2021 posted a wRC+ of 143 in 30 games at Triple A.

 

Kelenic posted a dreadful .151/.236/.272/.507 line in his first 64 MLB games before posting a .248/.331/.524/.854 line in his final 29 games. Fielding metrics and the naked eye gave his outfield defense negative marks.

 

Steamer projects Casas with a 2022 WAR of 0.3 and wRC+ of 110 in 32 games (.258/.337/.450/.787) while projecting Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.6 and a wRC+ of 103 in 131 games (.232/.307/.424/.731). ZiPS has not released its 2022 Red Sox projections but projects Kelenic with a 2022 WAR of 1.1 and OPS+ of 101 (.229/.297/.432/.729).

 

Marcel offers no projection for Casas but projects Kelenic with a 2022 line of .211/.293/.382/.675 in 389 plate appearances.

 

Casas and Kelenic are lefthanded hitters taken out of high school with the 26th and sixth picks of the 2018 MLB draft. Their development should be interesting to follow.

 

I'm always confused as to why a Sox player has to equate with a Mariner's player.

 

Casas will probably be up in June. He'll split time with Dalbec from June - Sept unless he outright wins the position.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's a lie though. Their top OPS man was either Taylor Motter (all batters) or Devers (qualified batters).

 

Hey, no politics on the board! Regarding Schwarber, many Sox noted they were boosted by both his bat and the intangibles you alluded to. For the record, I think Renfroe and ERod were both overrated, but not as much as the contributions some are counting on from Hill and Wacha, based on the word of Bloom.

[notin]

Hey, no politics on the board! Regarding Schwarber, many Sox noted they were boosted by both his bat and the intangibles you alluded to. For the record, I think Renfroe and ERod were both overrated, but not as much as the contributions some are counting on from Hill and Wacha, based on the word of Bloom.

 

Is Renfroe really that much better off an overall player than your frequently-omitted JBJ?

[notin]

They are going to get another RH OFer. Bloom will add a goulash of relievers. Unsure about starting pitching though.

 

I expect either a starting 2b or LF and maybe a corner platoon option for Bradley instead of using Arroyo in a moonslav-style defensive game of musical chairs.

 

I think they won’t add any more starters and it’s more likely that instead of additions, we see Whitlock and/or Houck in the rotation. So, yeah, relievers are probably coming…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is Renfroe really that much better off an overall player than your frequently-omitted JBJ?

 

I didn't omit JBJ intentionally; he's the best outfielder from the best Sox outfield I've ever seen in my old-scrooged memory and new-schooled fandom. I guess I've just never considered him a replacement for Renfroe, but a cost to Bloom to acquire two decent prospects.

 

Put it this way, if Bloom really wanted to pay Bradley this much, wouldn't he have signed him a year ago? This surely isn't his way of admitting a mistake (not when a guy he let go hits a buck-sixty).

[mvp 78]

Hey, no politics on the board! Regarding Schwarber, many Sox noted they were boosted by both his bat and the intangibles you alluded to. For the record, I think Renfroe and ERod were both overrated, but not as much as the contributions some are counting on from Hill and Wacha, based on the word of Bloom.

 

I think ERod and Renfroe are easily replaced. Schwarber gave the Sox a much needed sparkplug down the stretch. I'd like to see Schwarber back, but I don't know if there's a good fit for him. He'd be my starting LFer.

[mvp 78]

Is Renfroe really that much better off an overall player than your frequently-omitted JBJ?

 

Depends on the year. If JBJ can bounce back with his bat, it's pretty close.

[mvp 78]

I expect either a starting 2b or LF and maybe a corner platoon option for Bradley instead of using Arroyo in a moonslav-style defensive game of musical chairs.

 

I think they won’t add any more starters and it’s more likely that instead of additions, we see Whitlock and/or Houck in the rotation. So, yeah, relievers are probably coming…

 

I like Kiké as starting CFer and JBJ as 4th OFer. I think the Sox could find someone relatively cheap to take over at 2b. If Downs didn't have a shitshow season, the roster would be a little more clear. 2b FA options aren't all that thrilling. Maybe they just trying bringing Iggy back.

[mvp 78]

I didn't omit JBJ intentionally; he's the best outfielder from the best Sox outfield I've ever seen in my old-scrooged memory and new-schooled fandom. I guess I've just never considered him a replacement for Renfroe, but a cost to Bloom to acquire two decent prospects.

 

Put it this way, if Bloom really wanted to pay Bradley this much, wouldn't he have signed him a year ago? This surely isn't his way of admitting a mistake (not when a guy he let go hits a buck-sixty).

 

For Bloom: he didn't want to pay this much, but it's worth it to him if you include the 2 prospects.

 

I'm not sure the prospects have high upside, but in order to have a successful farm system you really need to go with a grab bag of prospects and just bring in any and all talent you can.

[moonslav59]

I expect either a starting 2b or LF and maybe a corner platoon option for Bradley instead of using Arroyo in a moonslav-style defensive game of musical chairs.

 

I think they won’t add any more starters and it’s more likely that instead of additions, we see Whitlock and/or Houck in the rotation. So, yeah, relievers are probably coming…

 

Kike playing musical chairs between CF and 2B was the reality of 2021. I’m not sure it’s a stretch to imagine it happening in 20222.

 

For the record, and you should know this, I want Kike in CF full time.

[Bellhorn04]

I think ERod and Renfroe are easily replaced.

 

I'm not sure a player with a 3.8 fWAR like E-Rod is "easily" replaced.

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure a player with a 3.8 fWAR like E-Rod is "easily" replaced.

 

What about his 1.9 bWAR (100th in pitching)?

 

Whitlock 2.9

Pivetta 2.6

Houck 1.6 (partial season)

Sale 1 (only 9 starts)

 

That could be easily replaced by FA Collin McHugh who also had a 1.9 bWAR or Danny Duffy's 2.1 bWAR.

[Bellhorn04]

What about his 1.9 bWAR (100th in pitching)?

 

Whitlock 2.9

Pivetta 2.6

Houck 1.6 (partial season)

Sale 1 (only 9 starts)

 

That could be easily replaced by FA Collin McHugh who also had a 1.9 bWAR or Danny Duffy's 2.1 bWAR.

 

I thought you were a Fangraphs guy.

[notin]

Kike playing musical chairs between CF and 2B was the reality of 2021. I’m not sure it’s a stretch to imagine it happening in 20222.

 

For the record, and you should know this, I want Kike in CF full time.

 

 

You also do have an affinity for making platoons out of players across two or more positions

[notin]

I thought you were a Fangraphs guy.

 

He’s bi-curious with his saber metrics…

[Old Red]

I like Kiké as starting CFer and JBJ as 4th OFer. I think the Sox could find someone relatively cheap to take over at 2b. If Downs didn't have a shitshow season, the roster would be a little more clear. 2b FA options aren't all that thrilling. Maybe they just trying bringing Iggy back.

 

I don’t think Bloom is going to add starting pitching from the Bargain basement, and then add JBJ, and his $10M+ contract to be a 4th outfielder. He never would have paid JBJ the contract he got from the Brewers, but now he’s he going to pay him that for 2 years anyway after a 160 year?

[harmony]

I'm always confused as to why a Sox player has to equate with a Mariner's player.

Casas will probably be up in June. He'll split time with Dalbec from June - Sept unless he outright wins the position.

Analytical evidence has some predictive value.

 

Anecdotal evidence, such as a comparison of Triston Casas and Jarred Kelenic, is offered for entertainment value only.

[mvp 78]

I thought you were a Fangraphs guy.

 

I like Fangraphs website more, but I think there's value in using both bWAR and fWAR.

[mvp 78]

He’s bi-curious with his saber metrics…

 

If there was a third version of WAR, I'd look into that too. I'm relatively nondenominational. My statistic preferences are basically Morrissey, I guess.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think Bloom is going to add starting pitching from the Bargain basement, and then add JBJ, and his $10M+ contract to be a 4th outfielder. He never would have paid JBJ the contract he got from the Brewers, but now he’s he going to pay him that for 2 years anyway after a 160 year?

 

Seems like it!