A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

In RF at Fenway? Absolutely.

 

I’m also hoping that Pham can bounce back offensively, assuming he can manage to go all off-season without getting stabbed…

 

Boston does have an exciting history with professional players being stabbed and/or murdering someone.

[mvp 78]

Rodon, Pham and Iggy…

 

For me I chose Suzuki because he could have a great long term impact on this club. Pham and Rodon are just stopgaps that will need to be replaced in 2023 or 2024.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s funny to look at a rotation with to may health question marks and think Rodon is a solution and not another part of the problem…

 

But barring a trade for something actually reliable, he's the best option of someone who might sign for less than the dreaded longterms... and there's no doubt that Rodon is definitely good. He's more of a sure thing than Wacha, Hill or Pivetta (who had some good games), or one of Whitlock or Houck, who we think could be good.

 

As for Sale, let's all hope he takes some different vitamins next season, to prevent getting Covid a third time.

[mvp 78]

But barring a trade for something actually reliable, he's the best option of someone who might sign for less than the dreaded longterms... and there's no doubt that Rodon is definitely good. He's more of a sure thing than Wacha, Hill or Pivetta (who had some good games), or one of Whitlock or Houck, who we think could be good.

 

As for Sale, let's all hope he takes some different vitamins next season, to prevent getting Covid a third time.

 

He's a sure thing, but not in terms of health. If healthy, he's better than those 3. Including injury?

[notin]

For me I chose Suzuki because he could have a great long term impact on this club. Pham and Rodon are just stopgaps that will need to be replaced in 2023 or 2024.

 

 

Will Suzuki have a great long term impact like Hideki Matsui? Or like Kaz Matsui?

 

It’d be great if we knew he was Ichiro 2.0 and not just another Fukudome…

[mvp 78]

Will Suzuki have a great long term impact like Hideki Matsui? Or like Kaz Matsui?

 

It’d be great if we knew he was Ichiro 2.0 and not just another Fukudome…

 

You know me, I'm a very optimistic person.

 

He's going to put up Sadaharu Oh numbers at Fenway.

[notin]

You know me, I'm a very optimistic person.

 

He's going to put up Sadaharu Oh numbers at Fenway.

 

 

Sadaharuh Oh circa 1966 or the present day version?

[mvp 78]

Sadaharuh Oh circa 1966 or the present day version?

 

At worst 1975 Oh.

[harmony]

You know me, I'm a very optimistic person.

 

He's going to put up Sadaharu Oh numbers at Fenway.

Playing for the Seattle Mariners.

 

Or not.

[dgalehouse]

We know that this guy is going to be good because of his name. It's the Jeter Downs system of scouting. Works every time.

[Nick]

Interesting that some believe 2022 rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha has greater health concerns than 2021 rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Erod, Richards and Perez. I don't see much difference when you consider E Rod did not pitch in 2020.

[moonslav59]

Interesting that some believe 2022 rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha has greater health concerns than 2021 rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Erod, Richards and Perez. I don't see much difference when you consider E Rod did not pitch in 2020.

 

Neither did Sale. Richards was even worse.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Does anyone realistically think the current Red Sox starting rotation for 2022 is good enough for a contender? Without even considering the bullpen -- which is still incomplete, according to the CBO -- here are the starters we know we can count upon: Eovaldi. An argument can be made that Pivetta peaked in October, and will be a solid #3 if he can stay consistent. Some may expect a fully-healed Sale to reclaim past glory, but first he has to show he can excel again against good teams in big moments; he did neither in his '21 rehab. Wacha and Hill were both rejected by Tampa, the smaahtest organization in the AL...

 

We're all intrigued by seeing either Whitlock or Houck as a full-time starter, but not at the expense of an already weak bullpen. It would be great if a young guy like Winckowski or Groome suddenly evolves into a phenom and wins a job in Spring Training... but that may be cancelled due to lack of fun.

[notin]

Interesting that some believe 2022 rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha has greater health concerns than 2021 rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Erod, Richards and Perez. I don't see much difference when you consider E Rod did not pitch in 2020.

 

Sale wasn’t even expected to be part of that rotation until late in the year.

 

But then no one was excited about that rotation through last March, not because of the health, but because the consensus was it just wasn’t any good.

 

This year’s rotation looks kind of questionable, but we do have some late season depth (Paxton) and the off-season isn’t over yet. I’d like to see Rodon added to the mix, despite the obvious risks that I normally don’t like. But part of the reason I like Rodon is he reportedly is looking for a short deal, and also because they already have enough pitchers to field a rotation so anything from him would be a bonus…

[mvp 78]

Does anyone realistically think the current Red Sox starting rotation for 2022 is good enough for a contender? Without even considering the bullpen -- which is still incomplete, according to the CBO -- here are the starters we know we can count upon: Eovaldi. An argument can be made that Pivetta peaked in October, and will be a solid #3 if he can stay consistent. Some may expect a fully-healed Sale to reclaim past glory, but first he has to show he can excel again against good teams in big moments; he did neither in his '21 rehab. Wacha and Hill were both rejected by Tampa, the smaahtest organization in the AL...

 

We're all intrigued by seeing either Whitlock or Houck as a full-time starter, but not at the expense of an already weak bullpen. It would be great if a young guy like Winckowski or Groome suddenly evolves into a phenom and wins a job in Spring Training... but that may be cancelled due to lack of fun.

 

I think a lot relies on Sale coming back to form. If he still pitches like 2021, they're in trouble.

 

If all breaks right:

Sale is dominant ace (2.50 ERA and 200 innings)

Eovaldi is top #2 in the game (3.75 ERA and 180 innings)

Hill is solid for a #3 (3.75 ERA and 150 innings)

Pivetta is good enough for a #4 (4.50 ERA and 160 innings)

Whitlock is the #5 (4.00 ERA and 150 innings)

Wacha is the #6.

 

I can see it working out. I can also see Chris Sale not pitching to pre surgery levels, Eovaldi getting injured, Hill missing half of the season and Whitlock's transition not working.

[mvp 78]

Sale wasn’t even expected to be part of that rotation until late in the year.

 

But then no one was excited about that rotation through last March, not because of the health, but because the consensus was it just wasn’t any good.

 

This year’s rotation looks kind of questionable, but we do have some late season depth (Paxton) and the off-season isn’t over yet. I’d like to see Rodon added to the mix, despite the obvious risks that I normally don’t like. But part of the reason I like Rodon is he reportedly is looking for a short deal, and also because they already have enough pitchers to field a rotation so anything from him would be a bonus…

 

If Whitlock is moved to the rotation, they'll still need to manage his innings this year. Hill typically doesn't pitch a full year. Paxton will definitely have a role if he's healthy enough to go. I would like them to add McHugh to the mix.

[moonslav59]

Does anyone realistically think the current Red Sox starting rotation for 2022 is good enough for a contender? Without even considering the bullpen -- which is still incomplete, according to the CBO -- here are the starters we know we can count upon: Eovaldi. An argument can be made that Pivetta peaked in October, and will be a solid #3 if he can stay consistent. Some may expect a fully-healed Sale to reclaim past glory, but first he has to show he can excel again against good teams in big moments; he did neither in his '21 rehab. Wacha and Hill were both rejected by Tampa, the smaahtest organization in the AL...

 

We're all intrigued by seeing either Whitlock or Houck as a full-time starter, but not at the expense of an already weak bullpen. It would be great if a young guy like Winckowski or Groome suddenly evolves into a phenom and wins a job in Spring Training... but that may be cancelled due to lack of fun.

 

For what it's worth, I felt much worse about our rotation in March 2021.

 

Here's my early take...

 

Eovaldi: The guy has become a horse, when his history was almost the opposite until maybe 2020. There is no reason to think he will decline, significantly or get injured. I'd expect close to what we saw in 2021.

 

Sale: I'm optimistic, here. I'm expecting 160-170+ IP, so that alone, could be a big boost, even if he doesn't come to close to the "old Sale." I do think this guys is a fierce competitor, and if that means anything, he could come close to his prior form.

 

Pivetta: I've been a big believer in this guy. He has some nasty stuff. He's had some ups and downs, but he seemed to come into his own, overall. He still has a serious issue with BBs, and his 3.8 BB/9 was higher than his career 3.5 mark. (9.8 BB% vs 9.0% career) Gotta like his ERA+ with the Sox in 165 IP from 2020-2021.

 

Paxton: I'm setting my sights on 2022 for him. Anything we get from him, late in the season, might be icing on the cake (or lipstick on a pig.)

 

Wacha: I'm not impressed, but apparently he showed signs of turning things around, late in the season. I'm thinking things often turn both ways. I'm trying to be hopeful but finding it hard, here.

 

Hill: This guy can pitch. He may pitch until he's 50. With him, it has been and always will be about his health. Here are his IP over the last 5 years:

136 (2017) 125 ERA+

132 (2018) 106

59 (2019) 169

39 (2020) 143

159 (2021) 103

 

Others: Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski, Seabold- lots of promise here.

[Bellhorn04]

Does anyone realistically think the current Red Sox starting rotation for 2022 is good enough for a contender? Without even considering the bullpen -- which is still incomplete, according to the CBO -- here are the starters we know we can count upon: Eovaldi. An argument can be made that Pivetta peaked in October, and will be a solid #3 if he can stay consistent. Some may expect a fully-healed Sale to reclaim past glory, but first he has to show he can excel again against good teams in big moments; he did neither in his '21 rehab. Wacha and Hill were both rejected by Tampa, the smaahtest organization in the AL...

 

We beat Tampa when it mattered, and their opinion of Wacha and Hill doesn't concern me.

[mvp 78]

We beat Tampa when it mattered, and their opinion of Wacha and Hill doesn't concern me.

 

Hill was traded mid season when they were ready to call up some younger arms. Hill was just a placeholder, as he is for us.

 

Wacha is a bullpen arm IMO.

[moonslav59]

Hill was traded mid season when they were ready to call up some younger arms. Hill was just a placeholder, as he is for us.

 

Wacha is a bullpen arm IMO.

 

I could see Hill being viewed as a "placeholder" for Paxton.

 

I think Wacha will be given a chance in ST'ing to earn the 5 slot.

 

Winckowski, Seabold and maybe Crawford will be in the mix, too.

 

The take on Whitlock and Houck is up in the air.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hill was traded mid season when they were ready to call up some younger arms. Hill was just a placeholder, as he is for us.

 

Wacha is a bullpen arm IMO.

 

Agreed on Wacha; he's this year's Andriese, another ex-Ray to fill roles as needed until replaced on the midseason roster by better options.

 

I like this one, sooner rather than later:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/red-sox-trade-pitcher-sean-124100002.html

 

ps. probably more available and will cost less than Montas...

[mvp 78]

Agreed on Wacha; he's this year's Andriese, another ex-Ray to fill roles as needed until replaced on the midseason roster by better options.

 

I like this one, sooner rather than later:

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/red-sox-trade-pitcher-sean-124100002.html

 

I think Bloom is probably looking into all the options available in the A's fire sale. The only problem is that every other team knows the A's are trying to deal off parts too. They may not be in a hurry to move those guys.

[Nick]

Neither did Sale. Richards was even worse.

 

You missed my point. Sale was NOT in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2021. Read carefully.

[Nick]

Sale wasn’t even expected to be part of that rotation until late in the year.

 

But then no one was excited about that rotation through last March, not because of the health, but because the consensus was it just wasn’t any good.

 

This year’s rotation looks kind of questionable, but we do have some late season depth (Paxton) and the off-season isn’t over yet. I’d like to see Rodon added to the mix, despite the obvious risks that I normally don’t like. But part of the reason I like Rodon is he reportedly is looking for a short deal, and also because they already have enough pitchers to field a rotation so anything from him would be a bonus…

 

Does Sale's name appear in 2021 rotation in my post? I'm comparing 2021 vs 2022 projected rotation in April. At worst, its a draw in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

You missed my point. Sale was NOT in the starting rotation at the beginning of 2021. Read carefully.

 

Yes. I was responding to your point about ERod not pitching in 2020. That's why I said "neither did Sale." Both did not pitch in 2020.

 

I responded to this, where it was not mentioned Sale did not pitch in 2020- only ERod:

 

Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post

 

Interesting that some believe 2022 rotation of Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill and Wacha has greater health concerns than 2021 rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta, Erod, Richards and Perez. I don't see much difference when you consider E Rod did not pitch in 2020.

Edited December 16, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Agreed on Wacha; he's this year's Andriese, another ex-Ray to fill roles as needed until replaced on the midseason roster by better options.

 

I like this one, sooner rather than later:

 

 

Andriese made $2.1M. Wacha is making $7M.

 

You may end up being right about him being replaced mid-season, but he was not signed to fill a role similar to Andriese.

 

Andriese was never viewed as a starter.

 

$7M is a lot to spend on a fill-in/ throw-away.

[notin]

Hill was traded mid season when they were ready to call up some younger arms. Hill was just a placeholder, as he is for us.

 

Wacha is a bullpen arm IMO.

 

 

I don’t think they signed Wacha to be a $7mill middle reliever. He’s likely penned (not penciled) into a rotation spot right now…

[mvp 78]

I don’t think they signed Wacha to be a $7mill middle reliever. He’s likely penned (not penciled) into a rotation spot right now…

 

Maybe they envision him starting the year in the rotation and Paxton taking over for him mid year?

 

IDK. I never said I agreed with or liked the signing.

 

Even if he has a large contract, he can pitch himself out of that rotation spot pretty quickly.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe they envision him starting the year in the rotation and Paxton taking over for him mid year?

 

IDK. I never said I agreed with or liked the signing.

 

Even if he has a large contract, he can pitch himself out of that rotation spot pretty quickly.

 

He did in Tampa just a few months ago... and all the new starters were unproven rookies. In the ALDS, we saw what an offense like Boston can do to him in relief. He doesn't have to face Devers anymore, but now there's a guy like Wander Franco...

[moonslav59]

Maybe they envision him starting the year in the rotation and Paxton taking over for him mid year?

 

IDK. I never said I agreed with or liked the signing.

 

Even if he has a large contract, he can pitch himself out of that rotation spot pretty quickly.

 

No doubt.

 

He may also end up being released like Andriese was, but I think Bloom has higher expectations for Wacha than he did for Andriese. Perhaps much higher.