A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

Big picture please.

 

The Red Sox under Henry have had one of the highest payrolls year in and year out and have won 4 championships.

 

Pretty unlikely they would have won any without some of the high priced talent we've had.

 

No doubt.

 

No Manny- No Rings. (Also among others, Damon & Foulke in '04 and Drew & Dice-K in '07)

 

No Lackey, Vic & others no 2013 ring.

 

No JD, Price & others in 2018- no ring.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber does seem like a good fit for the Sox. Hope we keep him.

[moonslav59]

Schwarber does seem like a good fit for the Sox. Hope we keep him.

 

The guy can flat out hit!

 

Not only has he averaged 38 HRs every 620 PAs over his career, he has a decent .337 career OBP.

 

He had one of baseball’s most incredible HR rampages ever, and it was this year!

 

He hit 12 HRs in a 10 game stretch and 16 in 18 games!!!

 

Can people stop saying Bloom did nothing at the deadline and realise this guy pulled a groin muscle that delayed his start with the team?

[Bellhorn04]

The guy can flat out hit!

 

Not only has he averaged 38 HRs every 620 PAs over his career, he has a decent .337 career OBP.

 

He had one of baseball’s most incredible HR rampages ever, and it was this year!

 

He hit 12 HRs in a 10 game stretch and 16 in 18 games!!!

 

Can people stop saying Bloom did nothing at the deadline and realise this guy pulled a groin muscle that delayed his start with the team?

 

Yeah, we've been too busy moaning and groaning to appreciate that this guy is on the borderline of being a premier hitter.

[oldtimer]

Yeah, we've been too busy moaning and groaning to appreciate that this guy is on the borderline of being a premier hitter.

 

What I have read from fans is they like Schwaber for 2022 provided we can keep him. The issue was he was injured so couldn't play during a stretch when we were losing our lead and he also was not a solution for our 1st base issues.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

What I have read from fans is they like Schwaber for 2022 provided we can keep him. The issue was he was injured so couldn't play during a stretch when we were losing our lead and he also was not a solution for our 1st base issues.

 

Absolutely. The other consideration is if he wasn't sidelined at the deadline, if other contenders with their wealth of better, more-valued prospects would've outbid us...

[notin]

Big picture please.

 

The Red Sox under Henry have had one of the highest payrolls year in and year out and have won 4 championships.

 

Pretty unlikely they would have won any without some of the high priced talent we've had.

 

So the big picture is still just Red Sox teams?

 

Since 2014, the average place in their division for the top 5 payrolls in MLB is 2.5. The average finish of the bottom 5 is 3.4.

 

So it’s “better”, but the correlation between heavy spending and winning isn’t as strong as the post implied…

[Hugh2]

The guy can flat out hit!

 

Not only has he averaged 38 HRs every 620 PAs over his career, he has a decent .337 career OBP.

 

He had one of baseball’s most incredible HR rampages ever, and it was this year!

 

He hit 12 HRs in a 10 game stretch and 16 in 18 games!!!

 

Can people stop saying Bloom did nothing at the deadline and realise this guy pulled a groin muscle that delayed his start with the team?

 

How much did the groin pull delay his recovery? Because it didn’t really seem to delay him at all, maybe a day.

 

Schwarber is now #1 on the Sox in OPS. Anyone who says they didn’t do anything significant isn’t even worthy of a response at this point.

[Hugh2]

So the big picture is still just Red Sox teams?

 

Since 2014, the average place in their division for the top 5 payrolls in MLB is 2.5. The average finish of the bottom 5 is 3.4.

 

So it’s “better”, but the correlation between heavy spending and winning isn’t as strong as the post implied…

 

Hey, one place can be the difference between October baseball and golfing in Florida.

 

I think the Sox success is due to their blend of spending and constraint. They’re a top payroll team, but they’re unwilling to consistently go above that threshold like LA. They’ve avoided big contracts and embraced them, they’ve hoarded prospects and emptied them out for people like Chris Sale.

 

People can say what they want, cry all day, and whine because we didn’t outbid the world for a player or because we don’t want to top the Dodgers in spending but what MLB team has had more success than Boston in the 21st century?

 

You can’t argue with two decades of results.

[oldtimer]

The Sox had obvious problems fairly early on in 2021. Two of those were we were not performing offensively at first base and our lineup had only two left handed bats who were competitive at the ML level. Our brain trust, consisting of Cora, Bloom, the front office and our coaching and other resources had reached into the reject bin to get us Gonzalez, Santana and Cordero who were either switch or left handed hitters and who had a possibility of playing first base. I suppose they hoped to find lightning in a bottle. The results were not good with Gonzalez DFA, Santana oft injured and not providing offense when healthy and Cordero back in the minors after two bad stints on the team. Meanwhile, we waited a long time to bring up Duran who was touted as the CF of the future. He was held back saying he was not ready at over 24 years old and with the best speed on the team should he come up. He did everything in the minors a guy could do. Given the earlier bad choices by our so called brain trust, how much credence could you place in their evaluation of Duran. To date he has done fine in the outfield and struggled at the plate, as many rookies do. His offense has improved as they work with him to put more balls in play and use his speed once on base.

 

The irony for 2022 is that we could have 5 players in the starting lineup by mid 2022. Since about 75 percent of starting pitchers are right handed, that would be an interesting feature for the team. If we sign Schwaber and bring Casas up mid season we could have Devers, Verdugo, Schwaber, Duran and Casas. With our existing quality right handed batters, Cora would have a great opportunity to mix and match based on the pitching we face. More on that later.

[Bellhorn04]

So the big picture is still just Red Sox teams?

 

Since 2014, the average place in their division for the top 5 payrolls in MLB is 2.5. The average finish of the bottom 5 is 3.4.

 

So it’s “better”, but the correlation between heavy spending and winning isn’t as strong as the post implied…

 

The teams that have been winning it all since 2016 have had pretty hefty payrolls.

 

And teams like Pittsburgh and Miami have no chance.

 

The success stories of low-payroll teams are the Rays and the A's. And you have to respect what they've been doing, absolutely. It takes a lot of smarts to overcome the payroll deficiencies.

[notin]

The teams that have been winning it all since 2016 have had pretty hefty payrolls.

 

And teams like Pittsburgh and Miami have no chance.

 

The success stories of low-payroll teams are the Rays and the A's. And you have to respect what they've been doing, absolutely. It takes a lot of smarts to overcome the payroll deficiencies.

 

Stop.

 

You cannot argue there is any randomness at all in the postseason and then follow up here like this. The disparity between Dodgers and the Rays in 2020 alone shows this. The 2016 Guardians - the back end of the time frame you chose - were 24th in MLB in payroll and took the World Series to extra innings in game seven. You don't get to ignore that one off simply because they didn't win. It's not like the difference was whether or not they spent a few more dollars.

 

Meanwhile the Giants (pre-2021) and Phillies have been hanging out near the top of the MLB payroll for years and shown no hint of even making the postseason...

[Bellhorn04]

Stop.

 

You cannot argue there is any randomness at all in the postseason and then follow up here like this.

 

Huh?

[notin]

Huh?

 

The premise of the post was "payroll = parades", basically. That teams only win because they spend so much money. And this does run counter to any notion of the randomness of the postseason, or at least it has to if you define success as World Series Champion and nothing else.

 

Here's the issue

 

1. Plenty of small market and low payroll teams do extremely well, and plenty of high payroll teams do not.

 

2. Your definition of the "big picture" was exactly the opposite - a rather small one where we focus on the Sox teams that won. Well, the Sox teams that won in 2016 through 2018 were steps on an inevitable path to the teams in 2019 and 2020. THAT is the problem with spending heavy; it leads to short term success (occasionally) and long term failure (always). Especially when it's the only thing the GM can do.

[Bellhorn04]

The premise of the post was "payroll = parades", basically.

 

Here's the issue

 

1. Plenty of small market and low payroll teams do extremely well, and plenty of high payroll teams do not.

 

2. Your definition of the "big picture" was exactly the opposite - a rather small one where we focus on the teams that won. Well, the Sox teams that won in 2016 through 2018 were steps on an inevitable path to the teams in 2019 and 2020. THAT is the problem with spending heavy; it leads to short term success (occasionally) and long term failure (always). Especially when it's the only thing the GM can do.

 

So this is all about Dombrowski. OK.

[notin]

So this is all about Dombrowski. OK.

 

So now you're side-stepping?

 

I also mentioned the (pre-2021) Giants and Phillies by name. The Giants have never had anything to do with Dombrowski and the Phillies association is a little too recent to blame him for their high payroll flops of recent years...

[Bellhorn04]

So now you're side-stepping?

 

I also mentioned the (pre-2021) Giants and Phillies by name. The Giants have never had anything to do with Dombrowski and the Phillies association is a little too recent to blame him for their high payroll flops of recent years...

 

Sure, but you devoted your whole last paragraph to Dombrowski.

[notin]

Sure, but you devoted your whole last paragraph to Dombrowski.

 

Yes, because it was a prime inevitability. If you like, Cherington also showed the issues with spending. He got a short term victory, but then the team fell apart due to spending especially spending that prohibited other spending. But at least most of the deals he signed were short...

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, because it was a prime inevitability. If you like, Cherington also showed the issues with spending. He got a short term victory, but then the team fell apart due to spending especially spending that prohibited other spending. But at least most of the deals he signed were short...

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't you been somewhat critical of the Red Sox for not spending more this year, for deciding to stay under the tax threshold after re-setting last year?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, because it was a prime inevitability. If you like, Cherington also showed the issues with spending. He got a short term victory, but then the team fell apart due to spending especially spending that prohibited other spending. But at least most of the deals he signed were short...

 

Except in the infamous 2014-15 offseason...

[moonslav59]

What I have read from fans is they like Schwaber for 2022 provided we can keep him. The issue was he was injured so couldn't play during a stretch when we were losing our lead and he also was not a solution for our 1st base issues.

 

There is a much better chance he can learn and play 1B by 2022.

 

Fearing someone coming off a groin injury and learning to play 1B in about a week is a bit different.

 

I do think they’d want him to DH, but not if JD is here. If they sign Kyle to 3+ years it might be a down the road thought, or we roll the dice and play JD or Schwarber in a short corner OF position while the other DHs, but I’ve seen enough of JD in the field.

 

Could we play JD at 1B not OF? There were board suggestions of that, last winter.

 

I, for one, really want Schwarber back and was thrilled we traded for one of the best bats on the market.

 

[moonslav59]

How much did the groin pull delay his recovery? Because it didn’t really seem to delay him at all, maybe a day.

 

Schwarber is now #1 on the Sox in OPS. Anyone who says they didn’t do anything significant isn’t even worthy of a response at this point.

 

It’s hard to know how many days the new groin injury delayed his first start with the Sox, but I do think it seriously delayed his use at 1B to the point he may not p,ay there at all, this year, even though that was the stated plan.

 

Had we been able to play Kyle at 1B v RHPs and DH or corner OF v LHPs, the plan looks a lot better, even if his 1B D was worse than the already poor 1B D we’ve had all season.

[moonslav59]

The Sox had obvious problems fairly early on in 2021. Two of those were we were not performing offensively at first base and our lineup had only two left handed bats who were competitive at the ML level. Our brain trust, consisting of Cora, Bloom, the front office and our coaching and other resources had reached into the reject bin to get us Gonzalez, Santana and Cordero who were either switch or left handed hitters and who had a possibility of playing first base. I suppose they hoped to find lightning in a bottle. The results were not good with Gonzalez DFA, Santana oft injured and not providing offense when healthy and Cordero back in the minors after two bad stints on the team. Meanwhile, we waited a long time to bring up Duran who was touted as the CF of the future. He was held back saying he was not ready at over 24 years old and with the best speed on the team should he come up. He did everything in the minors a guy could do. Given the earlier bad choices by our so called brain trust, how much credence could you place in their evaluation of Duran. To date he has done fine in the outfield and struggled at the plate, as many rookies do. His offense has improved as they work with him to put more balls in play and use his speed once on base.

 

The irony for 2022 is that we could have 5 players in the starting lineup by mid 2022. Since about 75 percent of starting pitchers are right handed, that would be an interesting feature for the team. If we sign Schwaber and bring Casas up mid season we could have Devers, Verdugo, Schwaber, Duran and Casas. With our existing quality right handed batters, Cora would have a great opportunity to mix and match based on the pitching we face. More on that later.

 

I’m not sure why so much hope is being placed on a 2022 Casas. It seems he has quite a bit to work on. His number aren’t close to Dalbec & Durans minor numbers.

 

I’m not saying he can’t or won’t help, but how is wishing he helps any different than wishing just on of these 4 guys came through, this year:

Dalbec

Marwin

Santana

Cordero

 

Between the four combined, the odds looked pretty good, and we had Duran, too.

[oldtimer]

I’m not sure why so much hope is being placed on a 2022 Casas. It seems he has quite a bit to work on. His number aren’t close to Dalbec & Durans minor numbers.

 

I’m not saying he can’t or won’t help, but how is wishing he helps any different than wishing just on of these 4 guys came through, this year:

Dalbec

Marwin

Santana

Cordero

 

Between the four combined, the odds looked pretty good, and we had Duran, too.

 

i believe we still want to be patient with Dalbec, but in more of a platoon situation. Cordero, Santana and Gonzalez were people who other teams didn't want where Casas is a top Red Sox draft choice, a left hander who also happens to be a first baseman. he has really good power and has an advanced hit took according to scouting reports. I think there is a word of difference between Casas and the other 3. The question of whether he can be ready by mid 2022 is a legitimate one. Duran is an example of a rookie finding his way in the majors.

[moonslav59]

2]i believe we still want to be patient with Dalbec, but in more of a platoon situation. Cordero, Santana and Gonzalez were people who other teams didn't want where Casas is a top Red Sox draft choice, a left hander who also happens to be a first baseman. he has really good power and has an advanced hit took according to scouting reports. I think there is a word of difference between Casas and the other 3. The question of whether he can be ready by mid 2022 is a legitimate one. Duran is an example of a rookie finding his way in the majors.[/size][/b]

 

Of course there is a world of difference between Casas and the mix of players I mentioned, and maybe he’ll be up and contributing before you even expect it, but it’s all conjecture.

 

Counting on him by not acquiring at least a one year signee at 1B could mean another year of 1B trouble.

 

To me, a guy like Schwarber offers a perfect so,union, assuming he shows he can play 1B without looking like a fool. If Dalbec and or Casas come through, Schwarber moves on to more of an Of/DH role.

[notin]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't you been somewhat critical of the Red Sox for not spending more this year, for deciding to stay under the tax threshold after re-setting last year?

 

Yes, assuming they find a good deal. But going over for a couple months is not in the same league as guaranteeing 6 or 7 years and $250 million to some 30+ vet just because the owner let you…

Edited August 21, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Except in the infamous 2014-15 offseason...

 

 

And I was ripping the Sandoval deal before it was even finalized. I did like the Hanley deal, and didn’t know what to think about Castillo…

[moonslav59]

And I was ripping the Sandoval deal before it was even finalized. I did like the Hanley deal, and didn’t know what to think about Castillo…

 

Same here. I also thought they had signed HRam to play 3B, which might have worked out better.

 

I respected the plan to wait until the next years winter to sign a pitcher, but in hindsight, signing Scherzer not this trio would have changed everything for Ben & Co.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, assuming they find a good deal. But going over for a couple months is not in the same league as guaranteeing 6 or 7 years and $250 million to some 30+ vet just because the owner let you…

 

Now that's something the Red Sox have never done, at least.

[Kimmi]

Building a better team for less has become an obsession with a lot of folks. I am sure the billionaire owners appreciate that. I blame Money Ball.

 

It's not like the Red Sox are penny pinchers though. Yes, they have seemingly been so the last year and this (Thanks Dave!), but that's because they have to rebuild. In theory, they could exceed the tax limit every year. In reality, that's not going to happen. Besides, it's smart to try to build a better team with less money. What's wrong with that idea?