Schwarber pulls groin

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Schwarber is an ideal fit for DH in 2022, but the more that JD slumps, the greater likelihood he returns for one more year so he can collect 20 million. I think the odds of JD returning are a little better than 50-50, meaning that Scharber will probably need to play 1b in 2022 (while JD plays out the last year of his contract) and then Schwarber switches to DH in 2023 (with Casas taking over 1b).

[Bellhorn04]

Schwarber is an ideal fit for DH in 2022, but the more that JD slumps, the greater likelihood he returns for one more year so he can collect 20 million.

 

JD is having the kind of "slump" great hitters have. After his 4 for 5 performance yesterday his OPS sits at .888. His career OPS is .884.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Does an .800 OPS get Martinez a 3 year 45 mil dollar contract? Take away his April, and Martinez has been an .800 OPS guy this year. Sure, better than garbage like Dalbec, but worth 45 mil? I have to admit, I suck at figuring out player contract values, but I wouldn't want to pay an 800 OPS guy 45 million to do nothing but hit, especially an aging player like Martinez who has demonstrated the worst strikezone judgment of his career. Edited August 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Bellhorn04]

Does an .800 OPS get Martinez a 3 year 45 mil dollar contract? Take away his April, and Martinez has been an .800 OPS guy this year. Sure, better than garbage like Dalbec, but worth 45 mil? I have to admit, I suck at figuring out player contract values, but I wouldn't want to pay an 800 OPS guy 45 million to do nothing but hit. If Martinez could field above average, an 800 OPS would be sufficient and he would be a valuable player.

 

You can't take away his April though. These guys have major hot and cold streaks. Mookie was going on at a pedestrian level most of the season, and then suddenly he went on a tear that lifted his OPS 100 points in a week or so.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

You can't take away his April though. These guys have major hot and cold streaks. Mookie was going on at a pedestrian level most of the season, and then suddenly he went on a tear that lifted his OPS 100 points in a week or so.

 

True, but for an aging player it becomes a little more problematic: a big April and then the rest of the season spent in the low 800 OPS range. That's not ideal and might have some predictive value going forward.

 

But we don't know what the rest of the season will bring. If JD has a big Sept., I think he will look much more appealing to teams in free agency and has a better chance to land that multi-year contract.

 

For the Red Sox, I think the best scenario would be: JD declining the option and becoming a free agent, save 20 mil, move Schwarber to DH (after extending him) and then find a starting 1b for one season.

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s not wrong. Aging players who have rough second halves get creamed on the market.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He’s not wrong. Aging players who have rough second halves get creamed on the market.

 

I would be as shocked if JD opted out as I would if Bloom extended him.

[notin]

Josh Reddick got released. He has 5 career games totaling 6.2 innings at 1b. That’s better than Schwarber!!

 

Of course his .755 OPS vs RHP, while better than Dalbec, is far worse than Schwarber…

[a700hitter]

Josh Reddick got released. He has 5 career games totaling 6.2 innings at 1b. That’s better than Schwarber!!

 

Of course his .755 OPS vs RHP, while better than Dalbec, is far worse than Schwarber…

How does that .755 OPS stack up against Schwarber’s OPS for games that he has been on the DL?

[moonslav59]

How does that .755 OPS stack up against Schwarber’s OPS for games that he has been on the DL?

 

Infinitely worse.

 

(Or better.)

[Nick]

I don't get why anyone would opt out of $19.375M contract to earn $15M for 3 years. I would pay JD $26M for two years beginning 2023 assuming he's healthy.

 

I don't get the math on opting out.

 

If I'm JD, I'd roll the dice on becoming an free agent for 2023 season.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't get why anyone would opt out of $19.375M contract to earn $15M for 3 years. I would pay JD $26M for two years beginning 2023 assuming he's healthy.

 

I don't get the math on opting out.

 

If I'm JD, I'd roll the dice on becoming an free agent for 2023 season.

 

Last big contract. At his age, he can lost it at any time. You take the guaranteed money.

[jacksonianmarch]

See when I saw JD's contract, I thought his final opt out was after year 3. I didn't know his deal was actually a 4 yr deal with a 5th year player option. If JD finishes this year with a similar OPS, he is declining his option. In the age of the dead baseball, a guy with a near .900OPS is gonna be worth a pretty penny. While I don't think he hits the AAV, he will likely get 3 yrs at $12-$15 mil a year.

[notin]

I don't get why anyone would opt out of $19.375M contract to earn $15M for 3 years. I would pay JD $26M for two years beginning 2023 assuming he's healthy.

 

I don't get the math on opting out.

 

If I'm JD, I'd roll the dice on becoming an free agent for 2023 season.

 

At this stage of his career, JD might be prioritizing years over money…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At this stage of his career, JD might be prioritizing years over money…

 

True. Many of us would pay good money to have more years...

[jacksonianmarch]

He’s one bad season away from getting a minor league deal at his age. So yeah, he could just take the higher AAV and roll the dice, but the smarter play at this stage is to maximize guaranteed money no matter the AAV

[moonslav59]

He’s one bad season away from getting a minor league deal at his age.

 

You can't be serious.

 

How bad? A .489 OPS?

 

He'll have just turned 35 at the end of 2022. He's been healthy and works super hard to stay on top of his game.

 

He's not 39.

[jacksonianmarch]

35 post steroid era is similar. Listen, he rolls the dice and comes out posting what he did in 2020 across an injury plagued 2022 and he’ll be either an MiLB deal or a very low base with incentives deal kinda guy

[moonslav59]

35 post steroid era is similar. Listen, he rolls the dice and comes out posting what he did in 2020 across an injury plagued 2022 and he’ll be either an MiLB deal or a very low base with incentives deal kinda guy

 

His 2020 sample size was 237 PAs. I doubt GMs see that as an age-related decline after he put up these 2021 numbers.

 

No, I more than doubt it. I'm sure of it.

 

He'd have to suffer a debilitating injury between now and the end of 2022 to be even close to only getting a minor league offer.

 

Have you seen what much worse 1B/DH types have been getting, recently? Yes, maybe not $45M/3, but also no where near minor league offers, and many have never had numbers even close to JD's recent numbers.

[Bellhorn04]

His 2020 sample size was 237 PAs. I doubt GMs see that as an age-related decline after he put up these 2021 numbers.

 

No, I more than doubt it. I'm sure of it.

 

He'd have to suffer a debilitating injury between now and the end of 2022 to be even close to only getting a minor league offer.

 

Have you seen what much worse 1B/DH types have been getting, recently? Yes, maybe not $45M/3, but also no where near minor league offers, and many have never had numbers even close to JD's recent numbers.

 

Nelson Cruz might be a good comp. He's older than JD but keeps putting up .900ish OPS.

[notin]

Nelson Cruz might be a good comp. He's older than JD but keeps putting up .900ish OPS.

 

Also they were late bloomers. And they’re both into leather…

[Bellhorn04]

Also they were late bloomers. And they’re both into leather…

 

But not so much on their left hands.

[mvp 78]

Also they were late bloomers. And they’re both into leather…

 

[notin]

 

No way in Hell am I clicking that…

[mvp 78]

No way in Hell am I clicking that…

 

It's safe for work. I'm no Dutchy.

[notin]

Reportedly the Padres will be moving Fernando Tatis Jr. to the outfield due to his shoulder issues, thus answering 5Gold’s questions about the last time a player changed positions to a totally new one in the middle of a pennant race…

[mvp 78]

Reportedly the Padres will be moving Fernando Tatis Jr. to the outfield due to his shoulder issues, thus answering 5Gold’s questions about the last time a player changed positions to a totally new one in the middle of a pennant race…

 

He's terrible at SS, so this is probably done with a nod to his future.

[dgalehouse]

Say what you will; The J.D. Martinez signing was a whole lot better that the Giancarlo Stanton one.

[notin]

Say what you will; The J.D. Martinez signing was a whole lot better that the Giancarlo Stanton one.

 

The Stanton signing wasn’t so bad. He won an MVP on that deal for the team that signed him. Now the Stanton trade is another matter…

[notin]

He's terrible at SS, so this is probably done with a nod to his future.

 

Possibly.

 

Counting Machado, the Padres have incredible depth at shortstop…