2021 MLB draft

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it has to be dead even to look at position.

 

I know, for a fact, that the Yanks have picked previously with system depth in mind. Not usually first round, though

[Hugh2]

Keith Law's first mock:

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)

3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School

8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School

9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

 

 

Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.

[Hugh2]

Callis has.

 

1.Marcello Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS

2. Jack Leiter, RHP Vanderbilt

3. Jordan Lawlar, SS Jesuit Prep HS

4. Henry Davis, C, Lousville

5. Brady House, SS, Windor-Barrow HS

6. Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt

7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS

8. Jacson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS

9. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

10. Sal Fredrick, OF, Boston College.

 

There's been some talk of teams in the top 10 cutting deals and saving money to spread around in the later rounds. Someone above the Sox is bound to do that so it's highly probable that not only one of the top college pitchers from Vanderbilt, but also the top college bat or one of the top 2 HS SS will fall to us at #4. If the Sox cut a deal, I think they go college bat, I'm not sure if Davis would take slot or slightly under but they could like Fredrick at #4.

 

I'd be happy with anyone from the Davis/Lawlar/Mayer/Rocker/Leiter/House list as that seems to be the top tier on most boards.

[moonslav59]

I know, for a fact, that the Yanks have picked previously with system depth in mind. Not usually first round, though

 

That may be rare, but I was talking about first round, and especially top 5-10 picks.

[moonslav59]

Law & Callis both have Davis gone before our pick but having a choice between House, Rocker & Leiter in one mock is a nice.

 

The Rocker- House one is not bad either.

 

Who knows? Maybe, Davis, Leiter and Rocker all fall to our pick.

 

I still wish teams could trade draft picks. The excitement would grow.

[jacksonianmarch]

Keith Law's first mock:

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)

3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School

8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School

9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

 

 

Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.

 

I would be shocked if the O's selected another catcher with Rutschmann in the minors already.

[Hugh2]

I would be shocked if the O's selected another catcher with Rutschmann in the minors already.

 

This is the highest anyone has House, one has to wonder why Law put him there. Good chance he's being scouted by teams and there's some talk of him cutting a deal there.

[mvp 78]

Keith Law's first mock:

 

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville

2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX)

3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School

 

4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt

The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them.

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt

7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School

8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School

9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS

10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA

 

 

Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.

 

I thought Leiter's lineage was supposed to give him the inside track in this draft?

[Hugh2]

Keep in mind cathers take longer to develop, and Ford is a high school catcher. By the time Ford is MLB ready Rutschmann could be close to a FA, he also could get injured, Ford is also an elite athlete who scouts say could play other positions. With a very strong arm and a 1.8 pop time I don't think the O's would let Rutschmann stop them from taking Ford. If, they're interested in Ford, I'm assuming Law isn't just throwing darts at a board. It could very well be that the O's have guys who they would take there but have a deal in place for a guy like Ford if the draft doesn't develop how they'd like.

[jacksonianmarch]

Keep in mind cathers take longer to develop, and Ford is a high school catcher. By the time Ford is MLB ready Rutschmann could be close to a FA, he also could get injured, Ford is also an elite athlete who scouts say could play other positions. With a very strong arm and a 1.8 pop time I don't think the O's would let Rutschmann stop them from taking Ford. If, they're interested in Ford, I'm assuming Law isn't just throwing darts at a board. It could very well be that the O's have guys who they would take there but have a deal in place for a guy like Ford if the draft doesn't develop how they'd like.

 

I would also be downright shocked if they pass on Leiter or Rocker should they fall. The Orioles have hitters in their system, but their pitching prospects suck

[Hugh2]

I thought Leiter's lineage was supposed to give him the inside track in this draft?

 

Maybe at one point, at this point there's been so many eyes on these guys at the top of the draft his name means nothing. He's where he is because he has real talent.

[Hugh2]

I would also be downright shocked if they pass on Leiter or Rocker should they fall. The Orioles have hitters in their system, but their pitching prospects suck

 

Personally, I think there's very little chance that two fall that far, but admittedly I know nothing. I read what guys say who talk to scouts who for all we know has an opinion not in line with the head decision-maker come draft day. These boards change every week too.

 

Still, I don't think any team would be unhappy with a top catching prospect in their organization, even if it was another top catching prospect.

[mvp 78]

Personally, I think there's very little chance that two fall that far, but admittedly I know nothing. I read what guys say who talk to scouts who for all we know has an opinion not in line with the head decision-maker come draft day. These boards change every week too.

 

Still, I don't think any team would be unhappy with a top catching prospect in their organization, even if it was another top catching prospect.

 

You're not supposed to admit that on here. Just pretend you have all the answers and have figured it all out backwards and forwards like the rest of us.

[mvp 78]

Maybe at one point, at this point there's been so many eyes on these guys at the top of the draft his name means nothing. He's where he is because he has real talent.

 

Leiter and Rocker were the marquee names going into the season. Without 2020 scouting, it was hard to determine who else would get a bump. The change in their standing is most likely due to increased eyeballs on all of these other guys.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Maybe at one point, at this point there's been so many eyes on these guys at the top of the draft his name means nothing. He's where he is because he has real talent.

 

As far as pitching prospects, Leiter and Rocker have been consistently projected to go 1-2 or 2-1, with not much separating either since the past winter. Having a father who was an MLB pitcher vs. an NFL defensive lineman has to be a consideration for some baseball minds. Anyone who thinks that is impossible probably also thinks that every single front office employee for every single franchise graduated from the same analytics school.

[moonslav59]

The amount of sons and brothers of MLB players in MLB over the years is way higher than the norm, so I do think the name "Leiter" carries some weight or may be the "tie-breaker" for one team.

[Hugh2]

Call it a difference of opinion but I don't think name means a thing at the top of the draft. Maybe in later rounds.

 

You see that stuff happen in the later rounds, where a team drafts a scouts son, or something like that. That certainly happens, but not at the top.

 

In terms of all else being equal, for me if all else was equal I'd go with Rocker because of the physique. His body just screams starting pitcher while Leiters makes you wonder if he can pitch 32 games a year for the long haul.

[Hugh2]

Leiter and Rocker were the marquee names going into the season. Without 2020 scouting, it was hard to determine who else would get a bump. The change in their standing is most likely due to increased eyeballs on all of these other guys.

 

The impression I've been getting from what I've read is just that. It's not that Leiter or Rocker have done anything to hurt their prospect status but rather other guys have pushed themselves up into that top tier. That's good for the Sox picking #4.

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure teams all have players ranked by some measurement system.

 

It's possible they have two players very closely rated and ranked- maybe even tied.

 

Who know what they use for a tie-breaker?

 

Positional needs 4-6 years down the road is hard to project.

 

Strength of the program they are coming from and the opps they faced in college?

 

Genealogy?

 

Size, injury history or likelihood?

[moonslav59]

The impression I've been getting from what I've read is just that. It's not that Leiter or Rocker have done anything to hurt their prospect status but rather other guys have pushed themselves up into that top tier. That's good for the Sox picking #4.

 

Yes. For a while, i was thinking the consensus was there were 3 easy picks, then a drop from #3 to #4.

 

That does not seem to be the case, anymore, and even if Rocker, Leiter and Lawlar are all gone by #4, I feel much better about us getting Davis, House or a HS shortstop.

[Hugh2]

I'm pretty sure teams all have players ranked by some measurement system.

 

It's possible they have two players very closely rated and ranked- maybe even tied.

 

Who know what they use for a tie-breaker?

 

Positional needs 4-6 years down the road is hard to project.

 

Strength of the program they are coming from and the opps they faced in college?

 

Genealogy?

 

Size, injury history or likelihood?

 

If I was a team, and I genuinely saw two guys equal and needed a tie-breaker, I'm drafting the player who I think I can sign for less money.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

By my count, in the first half-century of the baseball draft, there were 11 players picked in the first round that became Hall of Famers.

 

None of them were pitchers...

[Hugh2]

By my count, in the first half-century of the baseball draft, there were 11 players picked in the first round that became Hall of Famers.

 

None of them were pitchers...

 

Flip a coin, theres' a 50/50 chance we're getting a future stud with the #4 pick. Interestingly #5 picks almost ALWAYS make the big leagues, it's extremely rare that they do not. Now that could come in the form of drafting Jeffery Clement over Ryan Zimmerman, but they can't all be winners now.

[moonslav59]

If I was a team, and I genuinely saw two guys equal and needed a tie-breaker, I'm drafting the player who I think I can sign for less money.

 

That is certainly a factor, and maybe a guy like Leiter would not want to sign for "less."

[moonslav59]

By my count, in the first half-century of the baseball draft, there were 11 players picked in the first round that became Hall of Famers.

 

None of them were pitchers...

 

You mean first pick not first round, right?

[Hugh2]

You mean first pick not first round, right?

 

Money certainly comes into the equation in the draft. I actually find it interesting for all the (teams draft BPA, not for need) talk that we don't bring up the money more often. The frequent exception to BPA is often a guy who takes less money and NOT need.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You mean first pick not first round, right?

 

Zero pitchers chosen in the first round in the first 25 years of the June draft made the Hall of Fame.

 

edited: Mussina 1990 (good thing I checked; I read an article posted before he made it).

Edited May 28, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

Zero pitchers chosen in the first round in the first 25 years of the June draft made the Hall of Fame.

 

edited: Mussina 1990 (good thing I checked; I read an article posted before he made it).

 

You could bump that up to nearly 30 years. The next HOF pitcher taken in the first round was Roy Halladay in 1995...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You could bump that up to nearly 30 years. The next HOF pitcher taken in the first round was Roy Halladay in 1995...

 

Ya, I saw Roy in there, too. And obviously -- barring scandal -- Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer will also be in Cooperstown someday. But that's still, what -- 5 in 50 years, so an average of one Hall of Fame pitcher drafted in the first round per decade.

 

Could this be the year of the decade for Boston???

[notin]

Ya, I saw Roy in there, too. And obviously -- barring scandal -- Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer will also be in Cooperstown someday. But that's still, what -- 5 in 50 years, so an average of one Hall of Fame pitcher drafted in the first round per decade.

 

Could this be the year of the decade for Boston???

 

Halladay is also one of 3 first round picks to throw a perfect game. For a little trivia, name the other two...