2021 MLB draft

[jacksonianmarch]

For a team that has not drafted/IFA signed and developed an ace since Lester, I think the prospects of getting one of the two Vandy boys is too much to pass up

[Hugh2]

For a team that has not drafted/IFA signed and developed an ace since Lester, I think the prospects of getting one of the two Vandy boys is too much to pass up

 

Maybe, but maybe a terrible track record for developing pitchers is an argument for drafting a hitter and developing him. If your system is loaded with hitting prospects you can always trade for pitching. I mean, if you count Buccholz the Sox haven't drafted a viable starter since 2005. To at least some extent, one has to think that's luck, and I'm sure the personnel in the Sox system is different today than it was 10 years ago because when it comes down to it you should trust your scouting and development personnel.

 

I think they go BPA, hard to pass up a high school shortstop if you think they will be the next Manny Machado. I think if one of Mayer, Lawler, or House makes it to Boston there is a decent chance they go for the upside there.

 

Couldn't be too upset with one of the Vandy boys though, both could be middle of the rotation starters relatively soon in the majors with a chance to be slightly better.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but maybe a terrible track record for developing pitchers is an argument for drafting a hitter and developing him.

 

Our new head of ops is a pitching savant, though.

[moonslav59]

Our new head of ops is a pitching savant, though.

 

Exactly, the mistakes made by past organizational leaders should not be held against Bloom & Co.

[Hugh2]

Our new head of ops is a pitching savant, though.

 

I never really bought into the ideal that we don't draft pitchers because they're risky and we had a bad track record. If you feel you're scouting, and developing pitchers poorly compared to other teams the solution isn't to draft hitters but rather make changes to your scouting and development department.

 

While I've always thought a lot of the problem was just bad luck (developing pitchers is hard), I've always found it tough to assess. It could take you 4-6 years to develop a guy to a point to where he's an everyday contributor so any time you're looking at a lack of pitching depth it's really an indictment from the organization's past.

 

I would honestly be ok with a hitter or a pitcher, I feel like one of the top college arms is going to fall to us, and I won't be upset if it was Kumar or Leiter. Interesting to see what Bloom does, not just with the 4th pick but with the depth in this draft.

[moonslav59]

I never really bought into the ideal that we don't draft pitchers because they're risky and we had a bad track record. If you feel you're scouting, and developing pitchers poorly compared to other teams the solution isn't to draft hitters but rather make changes to your scouting and development department.

 

While I've always thought a lot of the problem was just bad luck (developing pitchers is hard), I've always found it tough to assess. It could take you 4-6 years to develop a guy to a point to where he's an everyday contributor so any time you're looking at a lack of pitching depth it's really an indictment from the organization's past.

 

I would honestly be ok with a hitter or a pitcher, I feel like one of the top college arms is going to fall to us, and I won't be upset if it was Kumar or Leiter. Interesting to see what Bloom does, not just with the 4th pick but with the depth in this draft.

 

Good points all around.

 

Hopefully, Bloom & Co. we have turned the corner on finding and developing good pitchers. That doesn’t mean we should take one at number 4, but there is less fear than before. It’s always a gamble, and I trust the Sox will take the best player available at #4.

 

Who we take in the later rounds may be just as important, so it’s nice to be picking 4th every round.

[jacksonianmarch]

Every mock of late has the Vandy boys dropping. Mayo has House going to the sox and Leiter/Rocker going 5 and 6 in the draft. I just highly, highly doubt the sox would pass on either with a system in need of pitching and both of those guys are rapid riser candidates.

 

I also continue to see the Yanks mocked to pitchers. I do love having a deep pitching system, but when you are so overweight pitchers and underweight hitters, you run into the issue we had last year where you cannot protect them all. Whitlock, in prior years, would have been a 100% protect player, but with all the high octane arms in the system, they left him exposed and the sox benefited from that. Last year was the first year we went offense first with our first pick. Typically, the Yanks select a pitcher who can start that they think can tick up velo (ie not a high octane arm out of the amateur ranks) or they draft a position player who is a high character guy with a good glove and questionable hit tool. I would love to see one of the bashers fall to NY. Of all the late 1st round profiles, I like the kid from MA the best, Josh Baez. Most power in the entire draft, cold weather HS player with an absolute cannon (97mph off the mound).

[Hugh2]

It sounds more like guys are rising rather than other players are dropping. It makes sense, Covid changes a lot and scouting departments have been playing catch up all spring.

[Hugh2]

Good points all around.

 

Hopefully, Bloom & Co. we have turned the corner on finding and developing good pitchers. That doesn’t mean we should take one at number 4, but there is less fear than before. It’s always a gamble, and I trust the Sox will take the best player available at #4.

 

Who we take in the later rounds may be just as important, so it’s nice to be picking 4th every round.

 

Someone over on the Soxprospects forum went back and looked at top 5 picks for a couple of decades and found only two players who did reach the MLB level.

 

This high in the draft, busts are unlikely (if you judge boom/bust by a player being a big leaguer). Personally, I'd prefer someone who is a little bit more than that picking so high.

[moonslav59]

Someone over on the Soxprospects forum went back and looked at top 5 picks for a couple of decades and found only two players who did reach the MLB level.

 

This high in the draft, busts are unlikely (if you judge boom/bust by a player being a big leaguer). Personally, I'd prefer someone who is a little bit more than that picking so high.

 

I saw that, but one point is that top players taken in the last 1-4 or even 5 years might still amount to something decent of even special. I'd look back at the 5 to 15 years ago sample.

[Hugh2]

I saw that, but one point is that top players taken in the last 1-4 or even 5 years might still amount to something decent of even special. I'd look back at the 5 to 15 years ago sample.

 

You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.

[moonslav59]

You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.

 

To definitively grade a draft going back 5-15 years is still not enough.

 

I'd say when a player's team control runs out, he's ready to be graded as a draft pick. That is more than 5 years back.

[mvp 78]

Every mock of late has the Vandy boys dropping. Mayo has House going to the sox and Leiter/Rocker going 5 and 6 in the draft. I just highly, highly doubt the sox would pass on either with a system in need of pitching and both of those guys are rapid riser candidates.

 

I agree.

[Hugh2]

You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.

 

Oh I'm sorry, what I meant to say was you have to go back 5-10 years until you can even start looking. If I want to see how good the "top 5" picks are, I'll start in 2016 and start working my way backwards.

[moonslav59]

Recently updated mock drafts (July 13):

 

MLB.com

1. Mayer HS

2. Lawlar HS

3. Davis Louisville

4. House HS

5. Leiter Vandy

6. Rocker Vandy

 

Baseball America

1. Lawlar

2. Mayer

4. Leiter

7. Rocker

 

Prospects.live

1. Lawlar

2. Leiter

3. Mayer

4. Rocker

5. Jobe

6. Davis

7. House

 

mymlbdraft.com

1. Leiter

2. Lawlar

3. Rocker

4. Mayer

5. House

6. Davis

 

 

Fueldedbysports.com

1. Leiter

2. Rocker

3. Lawlar

4. Mayer

5. House

6. Madden

7. Davis

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I am still of the belief that if one of the two starters fall to Boston that there is now way they pass on them. Not a chance

[moonslav59]

I am still of the belief that if one of the two starters fall to Boston that there is now way they pass on them. Not a chance

 

I have to agree, but if Bloom & Co. pick a HS shortstop or Henry Davis, I'm going to trust they know what they are doing.

 

As most here know, I'm a huge Cora/Bloom fan, but I have to point out that Bloom did not always have a great drafting history with the Rays. It's not really what he is "known for."

[notin]

I am still of the belief that if one of the two starters fall to Boston that there is now way they pass on them. Not a chance

 

I agree. I just think the chances of one falling to Boston are negligible...

[moonslav59]

One thing in our favor, assuming getting Leiter or Rocker is in our favor, is that the teams picking before us may be taking a longer look and have no issues taking a HS player over a college player that may bring help sooner rather than later.

 

I'm not sure anyone drafts with that in mind, though.

[Hugh2]

I am still of the belief that if one of the two starters fall to Boston that there is now way they pass on them. Not a chance

 

That's a pretty good guess as they're two of the best prospects in this entire draft, it would be hard to pass on them there. But, I do think the Sox are going to take BPA, and that could easily be Lawler or Mayer if they fall there, and maybe even Brady and house too.

[Hugh2]

I agree. I just think the chances of one falling to Boston are negligible...

 

Maybe not, a lot of people have the Rangers and Pirates nabbing the top HS short stops at the top, if that happens one of Leiter and Rocker would fall to the Sox. We could see guys cut a deal at the top too, so someone like House could go off the board too.

 

I think there's a very good chance at least one of them is still there.

[Hugh2]

One thing in our favor, assuming getting Leiter or Rocker is in our favor, is that the teams picking before us may be taking a longer look and have no issues taking a HS player over a college player that may bring help sooner rather than later.

 

I'm not sure anyone drafts with that in mind, though.

 

I'm fairly certain MLB drafts are 100% BPA, with that said some teams might be more comfortable with College Bats over HS bats etc etc.

[moonslav59]

Maybe not, a lot of people have the Rangers and Pirates nabbing the top HS short stops at the top, if that happens one of Leiter and Rocker would fall to the Sox. We could see guys cut a deal at the top too, so someone like House could go off the board too.

 

I think there's a very good chance at least one of them is still there.

 

It looks that way, but it's so hard to know.

 

The NBA is much easier. The NFL is somewhat easier to project than MLB.

[Hugh2]

It looks that way, but it's so hard to know.

 

The NBA is much easier. The NFL is somewhat easier to project than MLB.

 

This year I think is harder to project than other years. There doesn't seem to be that one stand out guy at the top, there are 5-7 guys who conceivably could go #1, also Covid really screwed things up for players and scouting departments, but I think that may play out more in the back of the first round which may end up being ever harder to project.

[Hugh2]

But even in a normal year I think the MLb is a little tougher to project.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm fairly certain MLB drafts are 100% BPA, with that said some teams might be more comfortable with College Bats over HS bats etc etc.

 

They typically are, but if there is a certain weak spot in your system and the BPA's are close, you go where there is a need in terms of position

[notin]

They typically are, but if there is a certain weak spot in your system and the BPA's are close, you go where there is a need in terms of position

 

I doubt anyone drafts for position if need. No one what they’ll need 3-4 years down the line, and a huge chunk of players switch positions in the minors. Pitching vs hitting? Sure, they might divide players up that way. But no point in taking a 3b early because it’s a weakness in the system, only to wait 3 years to find out the guy you drafted mid-first round fits better in RF, and also cannot hit inside breaking pitches.

 

I think teams are more prone to draft with “likeliness of making MLB” in mind. They can work out the positions later...

[Hugh2]

They typically are, but if there is a certain weak spot in your system and the BPA's are close, you go where there is a need in terms of position

 

I mean, if all else was equal maybe, but I'd suspect most of the time, particularly at the top of the draft you have player A ranked over player B.

 

The draft is such a crapshoot, and unlike other sports, you're not getting everday value out of these guys for 4-6 years. The team doesn't draft on need, nor do most.

 

I think when you get to the bottom of the draft, and with undrafted free agents you see teams filling in rosters for their affiliates, otherwise, you can always trade hitting for pitching.

[Hugh2]

It all comes down to who the Sox like. I think there's a decent chance they get a Leiter/Rocker, but they could easily like a guy like House, or maybe even Davis if they really believe in the bat. If they think Davis would be a better MLB hitter one day than those guys would be a pitcher......then you'd draft the hitter.

[moonslav59]

They typically are, but if there is a certain weak spot in your system and the BPA's are close, you go where there is a need in terms of position

 

I think it has to be dead even to look at position.