Red Sox Copium: Can An MLB Team Fire Its Manager and Still Make the Playoffs?

My Saturday morning started great. I woke up early, biked to the gym, and bought a new grill at my local hardware store. It felt like a productive start to the day, yet something felt off. My intuition proved right. After the Boston Red Sox pounded the Orioles in a 17-1 win, Craig Breslow abruptly fired manager Alex Cora and five members of their coaching staff.

Look, it was obvious the Red Sox needed a semblance of change. They’ve gotten off to one of the worst starts in franchise history. The offense is tepid and can’t hit fastballs if their lives depended on it. But it’s atypical to see almost the entire team’s coaching staff let go early in the season. At the very least, my money was on just hitting coach Pete Fatse getting sacked.

Baseball is full of bizarre storylines. (In recent years, the recurring theme for the Red Sox is petty drama.) Alas, some teams have parted ways with their managers and still reached the playoffs. Let’s take a look at them.

2022 Toronto Blue Jays

On July 13, 2022, the Blue Jays let go of Charlie Montoyo and handed the keys to bench coach John Schneider for the interim. Overall, the team held a 46-42 record and the third wild-card berth, but they started July with a lackluster 3-9 record. Toronto finished the season with a 45-29 record (ranked third in the American League) and held onto its wild-card berth, snapping a six-year postseason drought. Schneider was promoted to full-time manager in October 2022. 

2022 Philadelphia Phillies

On June 3, 2022, the Phillies fired Joe Girardi. At the time, things looked dire for the Phillies. They were third in the National League East with a 22-29 record and 5.5 games behind a wild-card berth. Led by former bench coach Rob Thomson, the team finished the season with an 87-75 record (third in their division). They clinched the final NL wild-card spot and danced to their first World Series appearance since 2009. Like Schneider, Thomson took over as full-time manager in October. 

2009 Colorado Rockies

On May 29, 2009, the Rockies parted ways with Clint Hurdle. Colorado was 14.5 games behind the Dodgers with an 18-28 record (fifth in the National League West). Hurdle’s replacement was bench coach Jim Tracy, the father of the Red Sox’s new skipper, Chad Tracy. The senior Tracy pulled the Rockies out of the basement. They ended the season with a 92-70 record, ranked second in their division. To this day, the Rockies’ 2009 record stands as the best in the franchise’s 33-year history. The team reached the National League Division Series. Come November, Tracy was named full-time manager.

2008 Brewers

On September 15, 2008, the Brewers fired Ned Yost. The team held an 83-67 record and were tied with the Phillies for the wild-card, which sounds fine, except they entered September with a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies and were 3-11 in the first two weeks. Third base coach Dale Sveum managed the team for the remaining 12 games and the postseason. They lost to the Phillies (who went on to win the World Series) in the National League Division Series. Sveum’s managerial stint with the Brewers was short, but he’d later manage the Cubs.

Could the Red Sox sneak into the postseason this year? History says so, but there’s a fundamental difference in the aforementioned teams and the 2026 Red Sox. Managers do their best with the rosters that the front office hands them. The 2022 Blue Jays had four All-Stars. The 2022 Phillies had Bryce Harper, fresh off his 2021 MVP season. J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola were still in their prime. The 2009 Rockies had Troy Tulowitzki just reaching his peak and a future Hall of Famer in Todd Helton. The 2008 Brewers had two All-Stars and a core of burgeoning young talent. The 2026 Red Sox will be lucky to have more than one player represent the team at the All-Star Game in Philadelphia.

Cora wasn’t given the optimal roster to manage. President of Baseball Operations Craig Breslow repeatedly echoed that the team needed a power bat, but neglected to sign any marquee free agents, instead trading for 33-year-old veteran Willson Contreras. To Contreras’ credit, he’s done well in Boston, but more often than not, there’s nobody on base when he goes deep. Despite the team’s surplus of outfielders, none of them were traded in the offseason, leaving Cora to juggle all five. The bullpen was the red-headed stepchild of the offseason. Breslow traded workhorse reliever Brennan Bernardino for Braiden Ward, a speedy outfielder, who profiled as redundant given that the team already had utility player Nate Eaton stashed away in Worcester.

Cora himself wasn’t perfect. Like most people, he falls into the ambiguous grey area. At his worst, he played favorites, his bullpen usage was questionable, he was a slave to the platoon, players seemed to lack fundamentals, the defense committed egregious errors, and runners looked lost on the basepaths. I’m saying this as a huge Cora fan.

Astute leaders don’t surround themselves with yes-men. They recognize the importance of healthy tension and constructive criticism. They understand there isn’t one way to solve a problem. They learn from their mistakes. Breslow hasn’t demonstrated any of these qualities.

In the wake of the Rafael Devers trade last June, Breslow acknowledged, “We want people to feel valued. We want people to feel like the work that they’re doing matters, that their voices are heard. And I think there’s an opportunity for me to do a better job making sure that everybody in this organization knows that.”

Sunday morning, after Cora was fired, Breslow addressed the clubhouse in a brief “five or six” minute meeting. Players didn’t have the chance to, in Breslow’s words, “have their voices heard.” Reliever Garrett Whitlock told reporters, “They made it very clear that we get paid to play baseball, and we need to just focus on playing baseball.”

That same morning, Breslow and President Sam Kennedy held a press conference where Breslow emphasized the human element of the game:

“On a human level, on a personal level, it's incredibly difficult. These are people that you build close relationships over multiple years. They are really, really good people, good fathers, good husbands. You know, I think we tend to think about only the professional aspect of this, but you know, the human side makes it just unbelievably difficult. You know, you wrestle with these things. But when you get to the point where you feel like this is the best decision for the organization and the best decision for the players, no matter how difficult you have to do it.”

For someone with a Mensa-level EQ, Breslow has a strange way of showing that he’s attuned to the human side of baseball operations. The Red Sox reportedly didn’t offer Alex Bregman a full no-trade clause – which was a reasonable ask – considering the organization’s history.

Since 2018, the Red Sox front office has been a revolving door, but I took comfort in knowing that the team had one of the best managers. Cora had a feel for the game, something Breslow seems to lack despite spending 12 years in the majors. Breslow seemingly cares more about his computer models being correct than what’s actually unfolding on the field. He doesn’t recognize what leadership looks like. Why? Because it can’t be quantified.

George Washington took the green French officer, Marquis de Lafayette, under his wing during the Revolutionary War. Plato tutored Aristotle. Gandalf guided Bilbo and Frodo through Middle Earth. David Ortiz mentored Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. The Red Sox could’ve had their leader in Bregman, Kyle Schwarber, or Pete Alonso. Maybe Breslow’s model advised him not to overpay them. Roman Anthony is only 22 years old, and he’s expected to carry the weight of the team on his back and address the media when veteran players refuse to.

I know it’s early, and there’s a lot of baseball to be played, but the odds aren’t in the Red Sox’s favor. PECOTA projects that the team has a 15.1% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.0% chance of winning the division. Teams that pulled off an in-season managerial change had front offices that constructed rosters that were worth saving. Right now, the Red Sox are a sinking ship.