A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

Going the other way should be part of any good hitters approach

 

Ted Williams notwithstanding, I agree with you.

[Bellhorn04]

Ted Williams notwithstanding, I agree with you.

 

You can't just say "Ted Williams notwithstanding" LOL

[Bellhorn04]

I feel so badly for Chavis. He came back up after losing weight' date=' he wants it so badly, but it's just not working. I saw him mentioned in trades but I question if he has any value.[/quote']

 

Chavis did have an outstanding game in the second game against the Jays, especially on defense.

[Maxbialystock]

Oh I remember how the pen went in 2018. We all saw the set up men pitch far better in the post season than what we saw for 5 months. That still amazes me. But that 2018 team was far better than this one' date=' they could overcome a bad post season by Kimbrel. Barns is very good, no doubt, but he's not as dominant as most WS closers from where I sit.[/quote']

 

I completely agree the 2018 team was better than this one. I also think that's irrelevant to how good Barnes is. I thought Uehara was fantastic in the 2013, but also think the Sox clutch hitting, especially by Ortiz and Victorino, and some pretty good starts by Lester and Lackey were at least as important as the great (and he was great) Uehara. Same goes for Papelbon in 2007 and Foulke in 2004.

 

Indeed, Kimbrel's disastrous 2018 postseason--at least as far as the Sox in the John Henry era are concerned--is overwhelming proof that really good closers are not the sine qua non for postseason success.

[Kimmi]

His whole game looked effortless. That's why people were down on him.

 

Exactly.

 

Which leads me back to my favorite scouting report about JD Drew, which turned out to be so true. And I'm paraphrasing a bit.

 

JD will easily get to balls that Trot Nixon had to dive for, and he will be criticized for it.

[Kimmi]

Porcello was 19th best in fWAR from 2009 - 2020. Over 293 pitchers had over 500 innings during that time period. He's in the top 10% of those guys. I guess that's "very good."

 

There is a lot of value in being able to eat innings and take the ball every 5th day. I think that value is often overlooked. Not to mention that his results did not do any justice to his actual pitching. I would do the Porcello contract over again in a heartbeat.

[Maxbialystock]

You can't just say "Ted Williams notwithstanding" LOL

 

The more I look at his stats and read about him, the more I am convinced he was just different from the other guys. He was intelligent and a student of the game and virtually his entire focus was on hitting. He had great eyesight and reflexes. He came to MLB when day games, in which hitters prosper more than pitchers, were normal and later decried the emphasis on night baseball.

 

I think David Ortiz was somewhat like Williams--a lefty hitter who definitely preferred to pull the ball, even at Fenway with the deep right field. His career OPS was a terrific .931, and, outdoing Williams in just one respect, his final season, 2016, age 40 (his 41st birthday was in November), his OPS was an unbelievable 1.021. He think he was helped by his willingness to learn how to hit to the opposite field. Reportedly, Adrian Gonzalez worked with him.

[moonslav59]

Williams, arguably the best ever, was a dead pull hitter.

 

Ted was a freak.

 

Of course I'm not thinking he needs to change his approach, but most hitters are better if they can go the other way.

 

If trying to do so would mess them up, then learn to BUNT, for god's sake!

[Kimmi]

Everything is coming up roses right now. And the Yankees are dejected , demoralized and defeated. Pour it on. Sweep them away.

 

Unfortunately, with the Yankees win last night, they now have some renewed hope. I'm not concerned about the Red Sox losing that game, but I hate that we were not able to deliver that crushing blow to the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

Ted was a freak.

 

Of course I'm not thinking he needs to change his approach, but most hitters are better if they can go the other way.

 

If trying to do so would mess them up, then learn to BUNT, for god's sake!

 

I don't think bunting is that easy either. Lots of bad things happen on bunt attempts. I'd like to see some stats on that, actually.

 

Ortiz did it a few times and we all loved it when he did. But he didn't did it more than a few times.

[Bellhorn04]

Unfortunately, with the Yankees win last night, they now have some renewed hope. I'm not concerned about the Red Sox losing that game, but I hate that we were not able to deliver that crushing blow to the Yankees.

 

It was just one game though. We're 9-3 against them, and we have 7 more to go. And tons against the Devil Rays. Still a wild ride ahead of us.

[Maxbialystock]

There is a lot of value in being able to eat innings and take the ball every 5th day. I think that value is often overlooked. Not to mention that his results did not do any justice to his actual pitching. I would do the Porcello contract over again in a heartbeat.

 

Perhaps his contract was OK. Eating innings every 5th day is the best thing I've read on this thread about Porcello, and I agree that has value.

 

And in fact he ate the most innings among the Sox rotation in 2018, probably the best season in Sox history. He was also decent--3 starts, 1 win, 15.1 innings, ERA 3.52--in the 2018 postseason. Meanwhile, Price went 26 innings, ERA 3.45, Eovaldi 22.1 innings ERA 1.61, and Sale 15.1 innings, ERA 4.11).

[Bellhorn04]

Perhaps his contract was OK. Eating innings every 5th day is the best thing I've read on this thread about Porcello, and I agree that has value.

 

And in fact he ate the most innings among the Sox rotation in 2018, probably the best season in Sox history. He was also decent--3 starts, 1 win, 15.1 innings, ERA 3.52--in the 2018 postseason. Meanwhile, Price went 26 innings, ERA 3.45, Eovaldi 22.1 innings ERA 1.61, and Sale 15.1 innings, ERA 4.11).

 

Porcello was excellent in the 2018 postseason. 2 of those appearances were late inning relief in close games.

[Maxbialystock]

It was just one game though. We're 9-3 against them, and we have 7 more to go. And tons against the Devil Rays. Still a wild ride ahead of us.

 

Bette Davis (as Margo Channing in All About Eve): fasten your seat belts; it's going to be a bumpy night.

 

That describes this season and a big chunk of the games and game threads.

[Nick]

Exactly.

 

Which leads me back to my favorite scouting report about JD Drew, which turned out to be so true. And I'm paraphrasing a bit.

 

JD will easily get to balls that Trot Nixon had to dive for, and he will be criticized for it.

 

 

I coach. I'm blessed with terrific athletes. Their movements are very efficient and effortless. People often correlate that to 'not working hard enough'.

[moonslav59]

I don't think bunting is that easy either. Lots of bad things happen on bunt attempts. I'd like to see some stats on that, actually.

 

Ortiz did it a few times and we all loved it when he did. But he didn't did it more than a few times.

 

Bunting is not easy, but it can be learned.

 

Usually players bunt to a normal field, but bunting to a side of the IF with nobody there has to increase your odds of getting a hit.

 

You have to be a good enough bunter to make your odds better than just swinging away, but is anyone good even trying to learn how to bunt, anymore?

[Bellhorn04]

Bunting is not easy, but it can be learned.

 

Usually players bunt to a normal field, but bunting to a side of the IF with nobody there has to increase your odds of getting a hit.

 

You have to be a good enough bunter to make your odds better than just swinging away, but is anyone good even trying to learn how to bunt, anymore?

 

Ironically it seems like pitchers are better than average bunters.

[Nick]

Morning everyone. Not sure if I am remembered, I was a regular in 2018 but life got in the way. Forgot my password and for some reason could not get approved when I tried to register with another name. But this old man finally figured it out.

 

Anyway I don't pretend to be as knowledgeable as you folks, I do not understand all the advanced stats posted here but I have enjoyed reading the threads and thought I'd finally participate. A few observations:

 

I woke up still pissed as that loss last night. The Yankees were done but a bloop double by Stanton changed the game.

 

Even before last night I was going to post my concerns with Ottavino. He has really good numbers and will be counted on in pressure situations in the post season but he never seems to have a clean inning. There is always traffic that he usually wriggles out of. That's not a good recipe for playoff success.

 

If I never see Marwin Gonzales take another at bat in a Red Sox uniform I'd be fine with that. He got way too many at bats this season, obviously due to injuries, and it was painful to witness.

 

Can you imagine this lineup if Verdugo and Dalbec had played close to expectations? I'm still fine with Bobby in the lineup, it's too soon to judge, but man.....

 

The pen has been really good and a big reason for the turnaround. However I'm not sold on Barnes. I read someone say a top closer is not necessary but I can't remember too many World Series teams that didn't have one. I'm fascinated to see what Cora does with Whitlock, what a weapon he has at his disposal. With Tanner and Sale perhaps the rotation will be good enough in October but I have my doubts.

 

For that last reason I don't expect a big run in October. But this year has been a blast. I live in Maryland so never got all the Sox games, until I subscribed to the MLB Network in 2018, and I did it again. Best money I have spent in a while, really enjoying this year.

 

 

I would go to my local bar to watch Sox games. I'd usually spend $25-30, not a lot but can add up. If I did this say 30 times a year, it's approaching $1000. I got smarter and subscribed to MLB.tv. for $125. I did not use to watch other teams but I seem to have more spare time. Best money I've spent.

[moonslav59]

Ironically it seems like pitchers are better than average bunters.

 

It makes sense for crappy hitters to learn to bunt, but if you are getting burned by the shift, it makes sense for those guys, too.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you imagine this lineup if Verdugo and Dalbec had played close to expectations? I'm still fine with Bobby in the lineup, it's too soon to judge, but man.....

 

That's baseball, right? Overall we've been very fortunate with health and performance by our hitters. JD, Bogey and Devers all staying healthy and performing up to their standards has been huge. Here's hoping that continues.

[Bellhorn04]

It makes sense for crappy hitters to learn to bunt, but if you are getting burned by the shift, it makes sense for those guys, too.

 

So next question - which of our hitters are getting burned by the shift.

 

Verdugo is the guy who seems best going to all fields, and of our top hitters, he's been struggling more than anyone by far.

[Nick]

Luxury Tax...revisited

 

If the goal is to go over by less than $20M, then the penalties maybe insignificant.

 

Penalties

$4.0M 20%

$6.0M 30%

$8.5M 40%

 

If you look at the penalties relative to total luxury tax payroll, than the penalty amounts look insignificant. Even at 40%, $8.5M on $230M payroll is less than 4% of the total. Assuming we're not hurt by nonfinancial penalties associated with going over the limit, than I'm with those not concerned about it.

 

Yes, I've changed my my.

 

Staying below $210M makes no sense.

 

Bigger question is can we make a meaningful addition without giving up the future? I'm definitely opposed to trading player such as Bello.

[iortiz]

Please explain.

 

If HR% is mostly a fluke, then how is HR/FB not mostly a fluke?

 

Sure.

 

A pitcher probably could have a bad month or even a year in terms of HR/FB, but not an awful career rate like Porcello.

 

i.e. In large samples if your HR/FB is awful, then it is not a fluke, you simply suck.

[Bellhorn04]

At worst Porcello was an average pitcher, as his career ERA+ of 99 would suggest. So I guess the average ML pitcher sucks.

[iortiz]

At worst Porcello was an average pitcher, as his career ERA+ of 99 would suggest. So I guess the average ML pitcher sucks.

 

I didn’t say that. I said he was all-in-all a mediocre/average pitcher (a No. 4 in my book), BUT regarding his HR/FB rate, he certainly sucked and very hard.

 

If his HR/FB rate had been at least average (around 9%), he probably could have been a No 3 pitcher. But again, his command of his pitches, specially the sinker wasn’t good hence that awful career HR/FB.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn’t say that. I said he was all-in-all a mediocre/average pitcher (a No. 4 in my book), BUT regarding his HR/FB rate, he certainly sucked and very hard.

 

If his HR/FB rate had been at least average (around 9%), he probably could have been a No 3 pitcher. But again, his command of his pitches, specially the sinker wasn’t good hence that awful career HR/FB.

 

A #3 starter is an average starter in a 5 man rotation.

[iortiz]

A #3 starter is an average starter in a 5 man rotation.

 

A No 3 pitcher in my book is not average. He is a good pitcher. A pitcher who sports something around 3.5 - 4.0 ERA. That’s the definition of a No. 3 pitcher to me.

[Bellhorn04]

A No 3 pitcher in my book is not average. He is a good pitcher. A pitcher who sports something around 3.5 - 4.0 ERA. That’s the definition of a No. 3 pitcher to me.

 

You're making up your own definition of average, then.

 

1+2+3+4+5 = 15. 15/5 = a 3 average.

 

Simple math.

[Nick]

Dear God

 

Please make them stop!

[iortiz]

You're making up your own definition of average, then.

 

1+2+3+4+5 = 15. 15/5 = a 3 average.

 

Simple math.

LOL it doesn’t work that way in ERA and run prevention estimators charts, bell.

 

This is my chart:

 

Under 3 — No. 1 (Ecxellent)

3-3.5 — No.2 (Very Good)

3.5-4 No. 3 (Good)

4-4.5 No. 4 (Average/Mediocre)

Above 4.5 (Bums)

 

Based on the above, Porcello was an Average/Mediocre pitcher.

 

Fangraphs’ chart is something similar

 

3.2 Excellent

3.5 Great

3.8 Above Average

4.2 Average

4.4 Below Average

4.7 Poor

5.00 Awful

 

Based on the above, Fangraphs sees Porcello as a Below Average pitcher.