A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

There is a difference between questioning a management decision and questioning a player performance...

 

No there isn't.

[notin]

Yes, but the opinion that Hernandez should not lead off is based on his performance and career OBP.

 

The opinion on Richards staying in the rotation is similar, in nature.

 

It is. And all off-season I was on board with questioning it. But right now, it's not what is not working, even with Hernandez sporting a truly horrific .284 OBP.

 

Eventually the team BABIP will normalize and the lineup will get re-arranged into something that (I think?) makes more sense...

[mvp 78]

Agreed. A manager sticking with an established player off to a slow start is different than sticking with a reclamation project. But like others have posted, the team has too much money invested in the spin-rate master to give up on him too soon. The organization won't move on from Richards this season, but may compromise at some point by sending him to Worcester to fine-tune his comeback.

 

It's true. Kiké's career 312 OBP shows that he should definitely be hitting leadoff.

[mvp 78]

It is. And all off-season I was on board with questioning it. But right now, it's not what is not working, even with Hernandez sporting a truly horrific .284 OBP.

 

Eventually the team BABIP will normalize and the lineup will get re-arranged into something that (I think?) makes more sense...

 

It's only working right now because some people have gotten extremely lucky. Why tempt fate and continue to put out lineups that could be improved upon?

 

I mean, you are saying that the lineups will be fixed at some point. Why not do that now?

[notin]

Should they maximize the potential of that lineup before they regress? Hell NO!

 

Maybe, but they won't.

 

A lot of baseball players are notoriously superstitious and do not like to change what is working. I have no idea if Cora is or not, but as he is a former player, it would not surprise me...

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but they won't.

 

A lot of baseball players are notoriously superstitious and do not like to change what is working. I have no idea if Cora is or not, but as he is a former player, it would not surprise me...

 

They won't, but they should.

 

Verdugo was great as leadoff/RF last year. They should have realized that players are notoriously superstitious and left him in those two spots for all of 2021.

[Nick]

As bad as Richards has been, it's still only 16 innings pitched. Thy can't just demote him to Worcester without exposing him to waivers, so a move to the bullpen is far more likely.

 

And right now, if anyone is going to Worcester, hopefully it's Taylor...

 

As a veteran, he can refuse minor league assignment. He becomes a free agent.

 

Most likely scenario is to put him on IR, and let him work it out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's true. Kiké's career 312 OBP shows that he should definitely be hitting leadoff.

 

What does that got to do with it? Cora doesn't want him on base, he wants him to hunt fastballs and hit leadoff homers.

[mvp 78]

What does that got to do with it? Cora doesn't want him on base, he wants him to hunt fastballs and hit leadoff homers.

 

And that should help the team about 10 times this year. I'd rather a guy that is more likely to get on base in front of JD/Xander/Raffy.

[notin]

It's only working right now because some people have gotten extremely lucky. Why tempt fate and continue to put out lineups that could be improved upon?

 

I mean, you are saying that the lineups will be fixed at some point. Why not do that now?

 

OK, let's optimize it.

 

Right now the biggest argument is who should bat leadoff instead of Hernandez, as his career indicated him to be an aggessive hitter and his OBP is curently under .300.

 

Right now, Hernandez is actually one of the lucky hitters. He is having a career high BABIP while also having a career low LD%. Who should hit leadoff over him?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And that should help the team about 10 times this year. I'd rather a guy that is more likely to get on base in front of JD/Xander/Raffy.

 

Of course. Maybe the problem is that it worked for AC with the best hitter in the AL in 2018, but Kike is not even a poor-man's (or a reluctant rich man's) Betts.

 

Another problem sure to hurt more when the offense levels off: the Sox three strikeout leaders basically hit in a row: Cordero, Dalbec, Kike.

[notin]

As a veteran, he can refuse minor league assignment. He becomes a free agent.

 

 

Yes, but that all happens once he is designated for assignment (i.e exposed to waivers).

 

The options are.

 

1. Let him work it out in the rotation. So far it is only 16 IP.

2. Move him to the bullpen. They can fill his rotation spot with Houck and demote Taylor (who has options) to WOO.

3. Put him on IL with some Fenway Fever and let him have his eventual rehab assignemt in WOO.

 

The last option is the least likely, because rehab assignments have limits. The first option will be the one they most likely go with for a while longer. The big question is, at what point do they make a change?

[notin]

Of course. Maybe the problem is that it worked for AC with the best hitter in the AL in 2018, but Kike is not even a poor-man's (or a reluctant rich man's) Betts.

 

Another problem sure to hurt more when the offense levels off: the Sox three strikeout leaders basically hit in a row: Cordero, Dalbec, Kike.

 

The Red Sox don't really have a guy that is ideal for the leadoff spot. To date, Bogaerts leads the team in OBP and Marwin Gonzalez leads the team in BB%. BUt I don;t really view either of them as ideal leadoff candidates either...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox don't really have a guy that is ideal for the leadoff spot. To date, Bogaerts leads the team in OBP and Marwin Gonzalez leads the team in BB%. BUt I don;t really view either of them as ideal leadoff candidates either...

 

And it's almost inevitable they'll put Duran there when he's called up... another high-K guy who they want to drive the ball more.

[notin]

They won't, but they should.

 

Verdugo was great as leadoff/RF last year. They should have realized that players are notoriously superstitious and left him in those two spots for all of 2021.

 

I prefer Verdugo in RF over CF, and he is probably my top choice on this team for a leadoff hitter, but is he the best option on this team. He did have success last year in 150 plate appearances.

 

I'm hoping that when the team grows tired of Kike and when the offense does need that eventual shake up, Verdugo becomes the new leadoff hitter. I'm just not one to force the change during a stretch of winning...

[notin]

And it's almost inevitable they'll put Duran there when he's called up... another high-K guy who they want to drive the ball more.

 

I can't make that call yet. It's been a long time since we've had actual regular season action with Duran, but he did last leave us with a .309 OBP in AA ball...

[moonslav59]

It is. And all off-season I was on board with questioning it. But right now, it's not what is not working, even with Hernandez sporting a truly horrific .284 OBP.

 

Eventually the team BABIP will normalize and the lineup will get re-arranged into something that (I think?) makes more sense...

 

Agreed, and Hernandez already has about a .333 OBP in his last week or two.

 

I also think we need to give Richards a chance to find a groove. The question is how much of a chance, IMO.

 

I also would not mind seeing Cora try someone else at leadoff, at some point. It is not likely EHern will ever get to over .350 on a consistent basis- he never has.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but that all happens once he is designated for assignment (i.e exposed to waivers).

 

The options are.

 

1. Let him work it out in the rotation. So far it is only 16 IP.

2. Move him to the bullpen. They can fill his rotation spot with Houck and demote Taylor (who has options) to WOO.

3. Put him on IL with some Fenway Fever and let him have his eventual rehab assignemt in WOO.

 

The last option is the least likely, because rehab assignments have limits. The first option will be the one they most likely go with for a while longer. The big question is, at what point do they make a change?

 

I actually think option 3 may be the best, but only after he gets 1-3 more starts and AAA is underway.

[moonslav59]

I prefer Verdugo in RF over CF, and he is probably my top choice on this team for a leadoff hitter, but is he the best option on this team. He did have success last year in 150 plate appearances.

 

I'm hoping that when the team grows tired of Kike and when the offense does need that eventual shake up, Verdugo becomes the new leadoff hitter. I'm just not one to force the change during a stretch of winning...

 

Verdugo would be nice at leadoff, but he's nice in the #2 slot, too.

 

Moving EHern down, shortens the line-up, in a sense.

 

Since the 3 slot is not supposed to have a great hitter, by the metrics, maybe putting Vaz there would work out. That, however, would weaken the 6 slot, which may be more important than the 3 slot.

 

(Is your head spinning, yet?)

[notin]

Verdugo would be nice at leadoff, but he's nice in the #2 slot, too.

 

Moving EHern down, shortens the line-up, in a sense.

 

Since the 3 slot is not supposed to have a great hitter, by the metrics, maybe putting Vaz there would work out. That, however, would weaken the 6 slot, which may be more important than the 3 slot.

 

(Is your head spinning, yet?)

 

Yeah it gets complicated when you look at the metrics.

 

 

I get the logic in devaluing the #3 slot, but I also think that it goes too far, since that player still comes up more often than the #5 or #6 hitter.

 

If the Sox tried a lineup of

 

Verdugo RF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3B

Martinez DH

Vazquez C

Hernandez CF

Arroyo 2B

Cordero/Renfroe LF

Dalbec 1B

 

... is that any better? I think the traditionalists would probably recommend moving Arroyo to second and sliding everyone else down a notch. And that is not a bad option either, while Arroyo is hot. I just prefer maximizing the PA of the top 4...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can't make that call yet. It's been a long time since we've had actual regular season action with Duran, but he did last leave us with a .309 OBP in AA ball...

 

I was thinking more like August, after he's played minors a few months, and with the parent club maybe sporting a middle-of-the-pack record... and in need of a transfusion (also, to maybe replace someone injured or traded at the deadline).

[notin]

I actually think option 3 may be the best, but only after he gets 1-3 more starts and AAA is underway.

 

Apparently he can be down there for up to 30 days on rehab.

 

But I think he gets a chance to straighten himself out against MLB hitters. And probably a longer one than many like...

[notin]

I was thinking more like August, after he's played minors a few months, and with the parent club maybe sporting a middle-of-the-pack record... and in need of a transfusion (also, to maybe replace someone injured or traded at the deadline).

 

Well, it's not like the Sox have Bonds-Griffey-Vlad out there in the OF. Or any better OF prospects in the minors.

 

I thin he comes up at some point this year. THAT is inevitable (barring injury). Whether or not he bats leadoff is another question entirely. Right now, the best leadoff option on paper is probably Verdugo. Do you think Duran makes more sense than Verdugo?

 

My thought - putting a guy with a sporadic minor league career at the plate into a role that will give him the most PA on the team is probably not a good idea...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, it's not like the Sox have Bonds-Griffey-Vlad out there in the OF. Or any better OF prospects in the minors.

 

I thin he comes up at some point this year. THAT is inevitable (barring injury). Whether or not he bats leadoff is another question entirely. Right now, the best leadoff option on paper is probably Verdugo. Do you think Duran makes more sense than Verdugo?

 

My thought - putting a guy with a sporadic minor league career at the plate into a role that will give him the most PA on the team is probably not a good idea...

 

Verdugo hit .304 with .362 OBP in 33 games (33 Ks, .804 OPS) as the leadoff batter in 2020. He's plenty capable, and actually looks to go opposite-field depending on the count, the pitch, etc.

 

But that doesn't mean the Sox' 21-man analytics dept. doesn't want to optimize his skills as one of the team's top hitters by keeping him in the fashionable #2 hole. Regarding Duran -- say he comes up and only hits .240 but mixes in some gappers and runs wild on the bases -- don't discount the value of energy and foe disruption to guys like Cora and his core lineup.

[notin]

Verdugo hit .304 with .362 OBP in 33 games (33 Ks, .804 OPS) as the leadoff batter in 2020. He's plenty capable, and actually looks to go opposite-field depending on the count, the pitch, etc.

 

But that doesn't mean the Sox' 21-man analytics dept. doesn't want to optimize his skills as one of the team's top hitters by keeping him in the fashionable #2 hole. Regarding Duran -- say he comes up and only hits .240 but mixes in some gappers and runs wild on the bases -- don't discount the value of energy and foe disruption to guys like Cora and his core lineup.

 

OK, but he first hs to actually hit those gappers and get on base befoe any of that matters.

 

Like I said, he is very likely to be on this team this year f he can stay healthy. But that doesn't make him the leadoff hitter right away. Right now, his MiLB career number have his offensive skillset somewhere between Jackie Bradley and Ryan Kalish...

[moonslav59]

Yeah it gets complicated when you look at the metrics.

 

 

I get the logic in devaluing the #3 slot, but I also think that it goes too far, since that player still comes up more often than the #5 or #6 hitter.

 

If the Sox tried a lineup of

 

Verdugo RF

Bogaerts SS

Devers 3B

Martinez DH

Vazquez C

Hernandez CF

Arroyo 2B

Cordero/Renfroe LF

Dalbec 1B

 

... is that any better? I think the traditionalists would probably recommend moving Arroyo to second and sliding everyone else down a notch. And that is not a bad option either, while Arroyo is hot. I just prefer maximizing the PA of the top 4...

 

I find it hard to believe the metrics that say the 4 and 5 slots are more important than the 3 slot and that even #6 is close to #3, but I do think it is right.

 

I like Devers 5th. JD seems like the perfect clean-up hitter. Since the 2 slot should be your best hitter- put Bogey there. That leaves Verdugo for the 1, 3 or 6 slot. I choose 1. So....

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey

3. Vaz

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Arroyo (for now, anyway)

7. Hernandez

8. Cordero/Renfroe

9. Dalbec

 

As the season goes on, maybe the 6-9 slots are juggled. Maybe Dalbec or Cordero/Renfroe move to the 3 slot, if Vaz slumps.

 

We don't really have 5 clear best hitters: we have 4, so one slot always seems to get short-changed.

[moonslav59]

OK, but he first hs to actually hit those gappers and get on base befoe any of that matters.

 

Like I said, he is very likely to be on this team this year f he can stay healthy. But that doesn't make him the leadoff hitter right away. Right now, his MiLB career number have his offensive skillset somewhere between Jackie Bradley and Ryan Kalish...

 

He had a .389 OBP in AAA (a bigger sample size than his MLB one.)

Overall, his MiLB OBP was .359. He has a .345 OBP in the bigs but has never really played near even 120 games in MLB a season.

 

JBJ came out of college and had a .366 AAA OBP and .340 overall- similar to Verdugo but not as good and at much older age periods by level.

 

Kalish had a .339 AAA OBP and .349 overall, but at least he started as an 18 year old.

 

I think Verdugo is for real, but I worry a little about him playing 154 games, or so.

[Maxbialystock]

Fascinating discussion on the batting order, so I hope I'm not disrupting things too much by pointing out that the current Sox lineup (actually, lineups) leads MLB in runs scored and OPS. In other words--and prepare yourselves for a shock--it's entirely possible that Hernandez leading off is a plus not a minus. Leadoff is always a tough slot, and I think moonslav has said the 2d thru 6th slots are more important than leadoff.

[moonslav59]

Fascinating discussion on the batting order, so I hope I'm not disrupting things too much by pointing out that the current Sox lineup (actually, lineups) leads MLB in runs scored and OPS. In other words--and prepare yourselves for a shock--it's entirely possible that Hernandez leading off is a plus not a minus. Leadoff is always a tough slot, and I think moonslav has said the 2d thru 6th slots are more important than leadoff.

 

I'm not sure the lead off slot is less important than the #3 or 6 slots. It has to help having a .370 to .380 guy up first over a .320 to .330 guy like Kike. That being said, over 600 PAs, .325 vs .375 is just 30 less times on base.

 

It's actually the 3 slot that has been over-rated by "traditionalists" not the #1 slot.

 

My point was that maybe the 2, 4, 5 and 6 slots should be filled by our top 4 hitters, and we only really have 4 clearly better hitters: Bogey, Devers, JD and Verdugo.

 

personally, and I think the metrics back me up, the 1 slot is more valuable than the 3 and 6 slots, so the best 4 hitters should be slotted somewhere in the 1, 2, 4 and 5 slots.

 

1. Verdugo

2. Bogey

3. ______ (Vaz?)

4. JD

5. Devers

6. _____ (Vaz?)

 

I'm not complaining about Cora's line-up, however. Putting Kike or Arroyo first, in a sense, lengthens the lineup by putting a top 4 hitter up 3rd or 6th not 1st. There is an advantage to that, despite the metrics showing the disadvantage outweighs the advantage.

 

I'm a huge Cora fan. I have some different opinions, but I don't see that as being critical of Cora. He knows what he's doing, and it's working.

 

I have complete confidence in our management team, and if things start going bad, I'm sure Cora will make adjustments, as needed.

 

Here's an example: maybe looking at Arroyo and his numbers, one could argue- "lead him off!" However, maybe Arroyo is doing so well, because Cora put him in a situation (lower slot) that did not have as much pressure on him, and allowed him to be so successful. Who are we to know better?

 

Now, if Kike keeps getting on base at .280-.333, and Arroyo gets on base at .350+, maybe we ease him into that slot. (He has batted there the two times Kike did not start and has a .300 OBP in those 10 PAs/ .250 career in 12 PAs.)

[mvp 78]

Fascinating discussion on the batting order, so I hope I'm not disrupting things too much by pointing out that the current Sox lineup (actually, lineups) leads MLB in runs scored and OPS. In other words--and prepare yourselves for a shock--it's entirely possible that Hernandez leading off is a plus not a minus. Leadoff is always a tough slot, and I think moonslav has said the 2d thru 6th slots are more important than leadoff.

 

They lead in runs because the BABIP is unsustainably high for some of the hitters. They don't lead in runs because Kiké hits a leadoff HR and then goes 4 AB's without getting on base.