what's left.... if any moves at all?

[harmony]

Astros, Phillies and Red Sox.

 

I do think the Sox are the least likely of the three...

Dark horse: Seattle Mariners, who days ago signed another Scott Boras client in James Paxton.

 

Seattle reportedly was in the market for a left hand-hitting outfielder to complement Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger. The M’s have a projected 2021 payroll under $100 million. FWIW the Mariners last year had the highest percentage of African-Americans of any team.

 

The drawback is that the Mariners, teeming with highly regarded young outfielders, would want Jackie Bradley Jr. on a short-term contract.

 

FWIW in 2014 Bradley and his wife vacationed in Seattle:

 

http://www.playerwives.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/jackie-bradley-jr-wife-erin-bradley/

Edited February 16, 2021 by harmony

[notin]

Dark horse: Seattle Mariners, who days ago signed another Scott Boras client in James Paxton.

 

Seattle reportedly was in the market for a left hand-hitting outfielder and still has a projected 2021 payroll under $100 million. FWIW the Mariners last year had the highest percentage of African-Americans of any team.

 

The drawback is that the Mariners, teeming with highly regarded young outfielders, would want Jackie Bradley Jr. on a short-term contract.

 

FWIW in 2014 Bradley and his wife vacationed in Seattle:

 

http://www.playerwives.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/jackie-bradley-jr-wife-erin-bradley/

 

Well, I did not know he vacationed there 7 years ago!! That changes everything!

 

The problem with the Mariners is they have a talented young CF in Kyle Lewis. And Bradley is not an "outfielder." He is a "centerfielder". Playing him in either corner is misusing him...

[moonslav59]

After Sawamura at $3M/2, I think we trade for a 2Bman or CF'er.

 

I doubt we add any more pitchers until the deadline, assuming we are in the race.

 

(I'd sure like to replace Brice with almost anyone, but I'm not sure that happens.)

 

Our opening day 13 man pitching staff (Sale on the 60-day IL):

 

ERod

Eovaldi

Richards

Pivetta

Perez

 

Ottavino

Barnes

DHern

Brasier

Sawamura

Andriese (no options)

Brice (no options)

Whitlock (rule 5)

 

AAA: Houck, Taylor, Valdez, Mata, Seabold, Brewer, Bazardo

 

If we want Houck on the 26 man roster, we have to DFA Brice or trade someone.

 

[notin]

After Sawamura at $3M/2, I think we trade for a 2Bman or CF'er.

 

I doubt we add any more pitchers until the deadline, assuming we are in the race.

 

(I'd sure like to replace Brice with almost anyone, but I'm not sure that happens.)

 

Our opening day 13 man pitching staff (Sale on the 60-day IL):

 

ERod

Eovaldi

Richards

Pivetta

Perez

 

Ottavino

Barnes

DHern

Brasier

Sawamura

Andriese (no options)

Brice (no options)

Whitlock (rule 5)

 

AAA: Houck, Taylor, Valdez, Mata, Seabold, Brewer, Bazardo

 

If we want Houck on the 26 man roster, we have to DFA Brice or trade someone.

 

 

Trade what?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox made no more additions. I will be disappointed, but I won't be surprised...

[moonslav59]

Trade what?

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Sox made no more additions. I will be disappointed, but I won't be surprised...

 

I doubt it takes much to get Adam Frazier.

 

I'd give Chavis, but who knows what his value is to other GMs. BTV says he's worth more than Frazier. I doubt it.

 

I might give Chavis and some low prospect.

[Thunder]

I doubt it takes much to get Adam Frazier.

 

I'd give Chavis, but who knows what his value is to other GMs. BTV says he's worth more than Frazier. I doubt it.

 

I might give Chavis and some low prospect.

 

Not sure we can get much out of Chavis until he gets the K rate down on the high fastball

[Thunder]

Dark horse: Seattle Mariners, who days ago signed another Scott Boras client in James Paxton.

 

Seattle reportedly was in the market for a left hand-hitting outfielder to complement Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger. The M’s have a projected 2021 payroll under $100 million. FWIW the Mariners last year had the highest percentage of African-Americans of any team.

 

The drawback is that the Mariners, teeming with highly regarded young outfielders, would want Jackie Bradley Jr. on a short-term contract.

 

FWIW in 2014 Bradley and his wife vacationed in Seattle:

 

http://www.playerwives.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/jackie-bradley-jr-wife-erin-bradley/

 

I'd move to Seattle just to see Erin at the ballpark... Damn

[notin]

I doubt it takes much to get Adam Frazier.

 

I'd give Chavis, but who knows what his value is to other GMs. BTV says he's worth more than Frazier. I doubt it.

 

I might give Chavis and some low prospect.

 

Well, the GM of the Pirates did draft Chavis in the first round.

[notin]

Not sure we can get much out of Chavis until he gets the K rate down on the high fastball

 

moon's proposed deal is a salary dump for the Pirates, who could actually use Chavis at 1B where they only seem to have LHH Colin Moran, who is not exactly a contact machine himself (26% K rate).

 

And Pitt GM Ben Cherington apparently liked Chavis enough at one point to take him in the first round...

[Thunder]

moon's proposed deal is a salary dump for the Pirates, who could actually use Chavis at 1B where they only seem to have LHH Colin Moran, who is not exactly a contact machine himself (26% K rate).

 

And Pitt GM Ben Cherington apparently liked Chavis enough at one point to take him in the first round...

 

Well, we of all people should know that Ben Cherington's judgment is, at best, foggy.

 

I'm not opposed to a deal. I just think we can get more back for him in a year or so. I think he'll come around offensively.

[harmony]

Well, I did not know he vacationed there 7 years ago!! That changes everything!

 

The problem with the Mariners is they have a talented young CF in Kyle Lewis. And Bradley is not an "outfielder." He is a "centerfielder". Playing him in either corner is misusing him...

Kyle Lewis was projected as a corner outfielder before impressing in center field last year. Lewis could move off center field ala Alex Verdugo and Andrew Benintendi.

Edited February 16, 2021 by harmony

[notin]

Well, we of all people should know that Ben Cherington's judgment is, at best, foggy.

 

I'm not opposed to a deal. I just think we can get more back for him in a year or so. I think he'll come around offensively.

 

Whether you like his judgement or not, he is the guy making the calls in Pittsburgh...

[notin]

Kyle Lewis was projected as a corner outfielder before impressing in center field last year.

 

You're only proving my point...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

moon's proposed deal is a salary dump for the Pirates, who could actually use Chavis at 1B where they only seem to have LHH Colin Moran, who is not exactly a contact machine himself (26% K rate).

 

And Pitt GM Ben Cherington apparently liked Chavis enough at one point to take him in the first round...

 

Back to the K rate: just wondering if you have stats for the average MLBer -- '20, maybe include '19 since it was an actual season? Reason I'm wondering is the reason I'm skeptical of the new Sox semi-regulars touted for the batting order. And also why a guy like LaStella (I think it was you who cited his above-avg contact) would have literally helped more to change the swing-and-miss culture contagious in Boston.

[vegasbob]

Why did JBJr and Boras think Jackie would be getting good offers on multi-year contracts at the $10MM AAV range? Especially in a pre CBA year with all kinds of other revenue (fans in the stands) unknowns ? This was a bad time to reach FA. Despite adding another year's age, JBJr may be best served with a one year + player option deal , and try again in 2022.

[moonslav59]

Not sure we can get much out of Chavis until he gets the K rate down on the high fastball

 

The plus for PIT would be years of team control, but if they don't want Chavis, I can understand why.

 

For what it's worth, BTV has Frazier valued at 4.5. He has 2 years of team control, which might overlap with Downs, but we could alsways trade him, once we know Downs is for real and ML ready. (Word is LH's RP'er Brault ison the market, too at a 1.8 value)

 

Here are some possible combinations of values that would come close to 4.5:

 

6.6 Chavis (in theory could get Frazier and Brault- maybe throw in Brice or Taylor)

 

6.0 Lugo

 

5.2 Groome

 

4.6 Song

 

3.7 Wong

3.6 Murphy

3.1 Decker

2.9 Bonaci,Potts & Jordan

2.5 Arauz

2.2 Lopez & Gonzalez

2.1 Ramirez

2.0 Bello, Cannon, Cacon, Rafaela

 

I'd give 2 from Decker, Arauz & Murphy for 2 years of Frazier and 3 years of Brault.

 

I'd give Arauz & Cannon for Frazier.

 

[moonslav59]

Why did JBJr and Boras think Jackie would be getting good offers on multi-year contracts at the $10MM AAV range? Especially in a pre CBA year with all kinds of other revenue (fans in the stands) unknowns ? This was a bad time to reach FA. Despite adding another year's age, JBJr may be best served with a one year + player option deal , and try again in 2022.

 

Now that the Mets signed Pillar, what is left for JBJ?

 

I doubt the Astros go more than $16M/2, and even that is an overpay, IMO.

 

My guess is, he takes a 1 year deal and tries to show 2020 was not an outlier. Big risk, though.

[mvp 78]

Back to the K rate: just wondering if you have stats for the average MLBer -- '20, maybe include '19 since it was an actual season? Reason I'm wondering is the reason I'm skeptical of the new Sox semi-regulars touted for the batting order. And also why a guy like LaStella (I think it was you who cited his above-avg contact) would have literally helped more to change the swing-and-miss culture contagious in Boston.

 

23.44% for 2020

22.96% for 2019

22.26% for 2018

[mvp 78]

I don't know what to think of the Phillies. They are projecting to have CJ Chatham on the opening day roster. They have Jankowski as a NRI and Herrera in AAA eating $10M. Two 1st round picks Mickey Moniak 2016 and Cornelius Randolph 2015 ard also sitting in AAA.

 

I could see them not grabbing JBJ and it just being between the Astros and the Sox.

 

@destiny_lugardo

Phillies have invited Odubel Herrera to spring training.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23.44% for 2020

22.96% for 2019

22.26% for 2018

 

Thanks. Here's what I found for individual careers...

 

New guys: Cordero 34.9%, Renfroe 28.0%, Hernandez 20.8%, Gonzalez 20.2%.

 

Old guys: Dalbec 42.4%, Chavis 32.8%, JD 24.2%, Devers 21.7%, Vazquez 18.8%, Bogie 18.2%, Verdugo 15.8%.

 

Gone guys: JBJ 25.2%, Beni 19.0%, Betts 13.0%.

 

Perspective guys:

Wily Mo Pena 30.3%

Manny 18.6%

Ortiz 17.3%

Rice 15.7%

 

Yaz 10.0%

Pedroia 9.7%

Williams 7.2%

Boggs 6.9%

[mvp 78]

Thanks. Here's what I found for individual careers...

 

New guys: Cordero 34.9%, Renfroe 28.0%, Hernandez 20.8%, Gonzalez 20.2%.

 

Old guys: Dalbec 42.4%, Chavis 32.8%, JD 24.2%, Devers 21.7%, Vazquez 18.8%, Bogie 18.2%, Verdugo 15.8%.

 

Gone guys: JBJ 25.2%, Beni 19.0%, Betts 13.0%.

 

Perspective guys:

Wily Mo Pena 30.3%

Manny 18.6%

Ortiz 17.3%

Rice 15.7%

 

Yaz 10.0%

Pedroia 9.7%

Williams 7.2%

Boggs 6.9%

 

Buckner had a 4.5% k rate. He often noted that he'd do his best to choke up and protect the k zone with 2 strikes. He said that he probably would've been much more of a power hitter if he didn't care about striking out.

[Nick]

Now that the Mets signed Pillar, what is left for JBJ?

 

I doubt the Astros go more than $16M/2, and even that is an overpay, IMO.

 

My guess is, he takes a 1 year deal and tries to show 2020 was not an outlier. Big risk, though.

 

If that's a big risk for JBJr, then why in the hell would the Sox sign him to a multi year deal as some of you insist?

 

Pass, pass, pass....If I have to read about another prolonged slump, I will puke.

[moonslav59]

If that's a big risk for JBJr, then why in the hell would the Sox sign him to a multi year deal as some of you insist?

 

Pass, pass, pass....If I have to read about another prolonged slump, I will puke.

 

I've been a big JBJ supporter, but I am not for bringing him back. I doubt he'd take a $5M/1 deal, so NO CHANCE!

[dgalehouse]

JBJ : We all know his limitations as a hitter. No need to keep repeating that. But Jackie is a good player , a popular player , an exciting and sometimes spectacular player . Stop the penny pinching and give him a nice , two year deal . He has earned that . If he refuses , move on. But at least try to give us a few remnants of the championship team to root for .

[mvp 78]

JBJ : We all know his limitations as a hitter. No need to keep repeating that. But Jackie is a good player , a popular player , an exciting and sometimes spectacular player . Stop the penny pinching and give him a nice , two year deal . He has earned that . If he refuses , move on. But at least try to give us a few remnants of the championship team to root for .

 

He's a capable CFer for now. Re-signing him would be throwing a bone to the fans. There is a big hole in CF. The only reason not to do it is $$$.

[moonslav59]

According to cots, we have about $5.6M to spend after Sawamura.

 

I seriously doubt we choose to go over the tax line for JBJ.

 

Had we signed Pillar at $5M, we'd have had nothing for any mid-season deals. Even Adam Frazier at $4.6M would be cutting it too close.

 

$5.6M seems like about the number you want to keep for a possible summer deal(s). If we can get someone by adding just $1-3M, we may do it, but JBJ is not coming back to Boston.

[notin]

According to cots, we have about $5.6M to spend after Sawamura.

 

I seriously doubt we choose to go over the tax line for JBJ.

 

Had we signed Pillar at $5M, we'd have had nothing for any mid-season deals. Even Adam Frazier at $4.6M would be cutting it too close.

 

$5.6M seems like about the number you want to keep for a possible summer deal(s). If we can get someone by adding just $1-3M, we may do it, but JBJ is not coming back to Boston.

 

Although there is absolutely no harm in going over thr tax limit...

[mvp 78]

Although there is absolutely no harm in going over thr tax limit...

 

Especially since you can get back under it fairly easily.

[moonslav59]

Although there is absolutely no harm in going over thr tax limit...

 

I disagree. It's no so much about paying a small tax for going over in 2021, but if we plan on spending very large in 2022 or 2023, starting the yearly tax clock in 2021 sets the rates a year ahead going forward. That could amount to a big tax difference 2-3 years from now or necessitate an earlier reset at a time when we rate to be more competitive than 2021.

 

I just don't see JBJ as "that guy" we absolutely need to have for 2021.

[moonslav59]

Especially since you can get back under it fairly easily.

 

With so many one year deals and options for 2022, we can easily get under, next winter, but if we are heading towards a better and better roster, going forward, why sacrifice a later year for 2021?