Blue Jays Sign Springer

[Thunder]

Springer said he wanted to be closer to home (New Britain, CT). I guess terrorizing the Yankees and Red Sox in their own ballparks 20 times a year counts as being closer to home.

[mvp 78]

@mlbtraderumors

Astros To Re-Sign Michael Brantley

[a700hitter]

And the Blue Jays have just signed Brantley:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/blue-jays-sign-michael-brantley.html

MLB Trade Rumors with fake news.

[moonslav59]

Astros re-sign Brantley

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/astros-to-re-sign-michael-brantley.html

[Kimmi]

Sox should just get better with JD and Beni returning to form. I think the Sox struggled out of the gate and were never able to catch up in 2020. I think that if they played 162 games last year that they would have wound up closer to .500 than where they were. If ERod is healthy, Houck pitches like 2020 and one new rotation add gives them quality innings, this team will be in the hunt.

 

This is my kind of post.

[Kimmi]

Every team has many "ifs."

 

I'm not disagreeing with your point. We seemed to have more than our fair share of injuries and "bad years" from too many players. Expecting a return to the norm is something that is probable not just wishful.

 

We are also not done setting our opening day roster. I'm convinced we will make some significant additions. We should easily pass the O's (no biggie) and come closer to the rest of the AL East than we were in 2020. Only the Jay s seem to have improved by more than us, on paper, so far. The Yanks appear to want to stay under the tax line, so they have much less "budget space" than we do- going forward. They also lost Tanaka, Paxton & Happ. We lost JBJ.

 

The sky is not falling on Sox Nation.

 

Unfortunately, the media thinks the sky is falling.

 

Some of them are really in top form today.

[Kimmi]

Springer is a nice addition for the Jays. They will have a good offense (or offence).

 

I wouldn't have given him that long of a deal though.

[Bellhorn04]

MLB Trade Rumors with fake news.

 

Yikes - can you imagine if they did that with a significant, reported Red Sox signing?

[notin]

Astros re-sign Brantley

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/astros-to-re-sign-michael-brantley.html

 

Everyone is signing Brantley today.

 

Everyone except Bloom..

[Kimmi]

Yikes - can you imagine if they did that with a significant, reported Red Sox signing?

 

This is one of the reasons why the offseason drives me crazy. You usually don't get a false report that a player has actually signed somewhere, but the false reports that say the Sox are the favorite to sign someone or that the Sox are nearing a deal with someone are bad enough.

[Thunder]

This is one of the reasons why the offseason drives me crazy. You usually don't get a false report that a player has actually signed somewhere, but the false reports that say the Sox are the favorite to sign someone or that the Sox are nearing a deal with someone are bad enough.

 

"Multiple reports confirm that the Red Sox are emerging favorites to sign David Ortiz out of retirement, age him in reverse by 20 years, and then start him at DH in 2021"

[notin]

This is one of the reasons why the offseason drives me crazy. You usually don't get a false report that a player has actually signed somewhere, but the false reports that say the Sox are the favorite to sign someone or that the Sox are nearing a deal with someone are bad enough.

 

Well, those might not be false reports. Favorites don't always win. Close deals sometimes fall through...

[moonslav59]

Everyone is signing Brantley today.

 

He'll be the first player, ever, to get paid by 2 teams.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB Trade Rumors with fake news.

 

The Red Sox won in a landslide last year!

[mvp 78]

We can all blame old friend Hazel Mae for reporting the Springer deal in error.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale and ERod gave us zero in 2020, so they can't really get worse, unless they both pitch at a 5.50 ERA or worse.

 

Losing JBJ and gaining Renroe looks to be a minus, but who knows how well or poorly JBJ will do in 2021.

 

Let's have this conversation after we add a few more players.

 

It is an academic conversation. The sox could muster their way into the POs in a 50 game season if it started July 1 and went to Oct 1. Lots more variability with a shorter sample size, higher chance they have Sale and Erod from the rip. But for a 162? Is it even worth saying the sox "should be better". The sox suck right now. The process of rebuilding the franchise doesnt include top tier FAs and the farm capital isnt there to rebuild AND support a major trade. So whether the sox go from a .400 team to a .450 team is entirely academic.

 

Also, one of your major upgrades is an FA after 2021 in ERod. Very strong chance he isnt around for the whole season because he is donning another uniform.

[jacksonianmarch]

How are the Rays and Yanks better, as of right now? At worse, we gained slightly on both, so far, even if by getting worse by less.

 

To me, they have gotten worse by more than us replacing JBJ with Renfroe.

 

The Yanks replaced Tanaka, Paxton & Happ with a guy coming off a major injury- Kluber.

 

The Rays lost Snell.

 

We will be spending over $20-25M, soon. They are both about done spending.

 

The Jays improved but lack a solid rotation, even if they all do as well as can be expected.

 

I think you are overlooking one TJS recovery while touting the return of your own. Severino is a top notch starting pitcher who was the victim of our training staff then a victim of s*** luck with his UCL giving way. He also didnt show a loss of velocity in his time between the teres injury and the elbow exploding. We also get German back, who won 19 games in 2019. I do not intend to guess what his mind set will be, but he is an effective starter with lights out stuff with big league experience. Montgomery gets another year away from his TJS and his peripherals were pretty solid in 20. The kids on the farm, while not playing a minor league season, did get major league exposure and two blue chippers have graduated to the bigs in Schmidt and Garcia (who looked really good in his debut last year). The loss of Tanaka will hurt, but his biggest accomplishments weren't dominant starter. It was steady eddy middle of the rotation starter who had two good post seasons. His FIP's the last 4 seasons have all been in the 4's with WAR's topping out at 3.3 in 19, but averaging 2.5 in 17-18. So yes, his durability will be missed (30+ starts 3 of the last 4 full seasons) and his steadiness will be missed, but he doesnt carry a lot of upside. His production can easily be replaced by a healthy Montgomery, who's rookie season WAR would have been Tanaka's second best of the last 4 seasons. I would have liked to see a true #2 starter come in. I would have liked to see a deal with Morton, who has been better in the postseason. But we got Kluber. If he is healthy and can return to his pre2019 durability, then we have struck gold. If he cannot, then we have the pieces for a deal and the MiLB depth to at least throw a blue chipper on the mound. Most teams do not have the luxury of a big league ready top 100 prospect to slide into the rotation should someone get hurt. We have 2

Edited January 21, 2021 by jacksonianmarch

[Bellhorn04]

We can all blame old friend Hazel Mae for reporting the Springer deal in error.

 

C'mon man, you're better than this.

[notin]

I think you are overlooking one TJS recovery while touting the return of your own. Severino is a top notch starting pitcher who was the victim of our training staff then a victim of s*** luck with his UCL giving way. He also didnt show a loss of velocity in his time between the teres injury and the elbow exploding. We also get German back, who won 19 games in 2019. I do not intend to guess what his mind set will be, but he is an effective starter with lights out stuff with big league experience. Montgomery gets another year away from his TJS and his peripherals were pretty solid in 20. The kids on the farm, while not playing a minor league season, did get major league exposure and two blue chippers have graduated to the bigs in Schmidt and Garcia (who looked really good in his debut last year). The loss of Tanaka will hurt, but his biggest accomplishments weren't dominant starter. It was steady eddy middle of the rotation starter who had two good post seasons. His FIP's the last 4 seasons have all been in the 4's with WAR's topping out at 3.3 in 19, but averaging 2.5 in 17-18. So yes, his durability will be missed (30+ starts 3 of the last 4 full seasons) and his steadiness will be missed, but he doesnt carry a lot of upside. His production can easily be replaced by a healthy Montgomery, who's rookie season WAR would have been Tanaka's second best of the last 4 seasons. I would have liked to see a true #2 starter come in. I would have liked to see a deal with Morton, who has been better in the postseason. But we got Kluber. If he is healthy and can return to his pre2019 durability, then we have struck gold. If he cannot, then we have the pieces for a deal and the MiLB depth to at least throw a blue chipper on the mound. Most teams do not have the luxury of a big league ready top 100 prospect to slide into the rotation should someone get hurt. We have 2

 

But what is better? Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ? Or Kluber, German and Garcia? And by how much?

[moonslav59]

I think you are overlooking one TJS recovery while touting the return of your own. Severino is a top notch starting pitcher who was the victim of our training staff then a victim of s*** luck with his UCL giving way. He also didnt show a loss of velocity in his time between the teres injury and the elbow exploding. We also get German back, who won 19 games in 2019. I do not intend to guess what his mind set will be, but he is an effective starter with lights out stuff with big league experience. Montgomery gets another year away from his TJS and his peripherals were pretty solid in 20. The kids on the farm, while not playing a minor league season, did get major league exposure and two blue chippers have graduated to the bigs in Schmidt and Garcia (who looked really good in his debut last year). The loss of Tanaka will hurt, but his biggest accomplishments weren't dominant starter. It was steady eddy middle of the rotation starter who had two good post seasons. His FIP's the last 4 seasons have all been in the 4's with WAR's topping out at 3.3 in 19, but averaging 2.5 in 17-18. So yes, his durability will be missed (30+ starts 3 of the last 4 full seasons) and his steadiness will be missed, but he doesnt carry a lot of upside. His production can easily be replaced by a healthy Montgomery, who's rookie season WAR would have been Tanaka's second best of the last 4 seasons. I would have liked to see a true #2 starter come in. I would have liked to see a deal with Morton, who has been better in the postseason. But we got Kluber. If he is healthy and can return to his pre2019 durability, then we have struck gold. If he cannot, then we have the pieces for a deal and the MiLB depth to at least throw a blue chipper on the mound. Most teams do not have the luxury of a big league ready top 100 prospect to slide into the rotation should someone get hurt. We have 2

 

Rosy outlook, indeed.

 

Somehow, if the Sox had lost 3 of their best pitchers over the past 2 years and replaced them with Kluber, prospects & head cases, you'd be singing a different tune.

[mvp 78]

C'mon man, you're better than this.

 

You know that is not the case.

[Bellhorn04]

But what is better? Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ? Or Kluber, German and Garcia? And by how much?

 

Only men with crystal balls can say.

[notin]

Only men with crystal balls can say.

 

Is that some new Canadian venereal disease?

[Thunder]

Only men with crystal balls can say.

 

What if we have iron balls?

[notin]

What if we have iron balls?

 

Don't go swimming...

[Thunder]

Don't go swimming...

 

Talk about being hung...

[jacksonianmarch]

But what is better? Paxton, Tanaka, and Happ? Or Kluber, German and Garcia? And by how much?

 

You kinda have to remove Paxton from the equation since he is gone and gave us nothing in 2020. You could replace what Paxton gave us in 2020, lol. I guess we will see. Kluber, if healthy, will outperform Tanaka or Happ. Then again, he is 36 and coming off two major arm injuries, so the likelihood is low. The highest upside of anyone not named Kluber of the 6 you mention is Garcia, but he is only 21 years old. German has the most power of the bunch. Tanaka and Happ are steady mid rotation (Tanaka) or back of rotation (Happ) performers. Upside is with the last 3, reliability is with the first group sans Paxton.

[Bellhorn04]

What if we have iron balls?

 

They might make you a tough guy, but are useless for seeing the future.

[jacksonianmarch]

Rosy outlook, indeed.

 

Somehow, if the Sox had lost 3 of their best pitchers over the past 2 years and replaced them with Kluber, prospects & head cases, you'd be singing a different tune.

 

Paxton did nothing in 2020. Happ is suddenly one of our best pitchers? Interesting, since he has been kicked out of the rotation so many times for sucking (I am sure you rubbed that in) but now he is a big loss? Tanaka is gonna hurt, I don't doubt that. But the idea that he was a co-ace with Cole is a fallacy. The guys we lost are losses. But we do gain two pitchers with 2020 in the rear view. So the question is, does a second year Garcia improve on himself? Can German outperform Happ? Can Kluber stay healthy enough to outperform Tanaka of 2020? And can Severino return and show the top of the rotation form of 17-18? There is certainly a chance Kluber is on the 60 day, Severino has a setback, Garcia has a second year pull back and German is sitting in a jail cell and the rotation is a mess. But discounting the time lapse giving us 2 pitchers back is also red sox pink hat territory, especially when touting Sale's return. The best possible scenario for the Yanks is Severino comes back throwing smoke and Kluber and Cole stay healthy. That would create a top 3 that would be unrivaled in the AL

[notin]

I'm going to go all harmony on you here.

 

ZIPS is projecting the following for 2021

Paxton - 2.7 fWAR

Tanaka - 2.3 fWAR

Happ - 1.6 fWAR

 

These 3 combined for 1.7 fWAR in 2020, but in a 60 game season, not really all that good for comparisons.

 

Zips also projects

Kluber - 2.5

German - 2.1

Garcia - 2.1

 

So the Yankees gave up 6.6 fWAR and replaced it with 6.7 fWAR.

 

I'd say all is equal here according to ZIPS...