Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, let's start garnering placeholders for Yorke and Lugo. Why wait until they play in Greenville? No point in stalling...

 

Watch out for those baby Bosox in 2025. Reserve your first round wildcard elimination umpteenth-seed showdown tickets now.

[mvp 78]

Chad De La Guerra!! Pencil him in!!

 

Not a Cam Cannon fan?

[moonslav59]

Our ML ready or near ML ready OF prospects are rather thin, to put it mildly.

 

Age OF'er (soxprospects.com ranking/projected 2021 level)

24 Duran (#4 AAA)

24 Wilson (#31 ML Bubble)

23 Cannon (#25 A at 2B)

21 Rosario (#11 AA)

21 Decker (#24 A-)

20 Jimenez (#7 A+)

 

[harmony]

Our ML ready or near ML ready OF prospects are rather thin, to put it mildly.

 

Age OF'er (soxprospects.com ranking/projected 2021 level)

]24 Duran (#4 AAA)

24 Wilson (#31 ML Bubble)

23 Cannon (#25 A at 2B)

21 Rosario (#11 AA)

21 Decker (#24 A-)

20 Jimenez (#7 A+)

 

Jarren Duran's ceiling might be Jake Fraley, who in his age 24 season made 10 starts, including nine in center field, for a 94-loss Seattle club in 2019.

 

Or not.

 

Compare their minor league stats:

 

JD DOB 9-5-96, B:L, T:R, 199 G, .322/.376/.446/.823, 70 SB, 23 CS

JF DOB 5-25-95, B:L, T:L, 250 G, .286/.362/.480/.842, 70 SB, 28 CS

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jar

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=fraley000jak

[notin]

Not a Cam Cannon fan?

 

Despite the name, Cannon lacks the arm to be a shortstop...

[mvp 78]

Jarren Duran's ceiling might be Jake Fraley, who in his age 24 season made 10 starts, including nine in center field, for a 94-loss Seattle club in 2019.

 

Or not.

 

Compare their minor league stats:

 

JD DOB 9-5-96, B:L, T:R, 199 G, .322/.376/.446/.823, 70 SB, 23 CS

JF DOB 5-25-95, B:L, T:L, 250 G, .286/.362/.480/.842, 70 SB, 28 CS

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jar

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=fraley000jak

 

Fraley is graded as 55/55 speed, Duran is 70/70. I'll disagree with you on this "ceiling."

[notin]

Jarren Duran's ceiling might be Jake Fraley, who in his age 24 season made 10 starts, including nine in center field, for a 94-loss Seattle club in 2019.

 

Or not.

 

Compare their minor league stats:

 

JD DOB 9-5-96, B:L, T:R, 199 G, .322/.376/.446/.823, 70 SB, 23 CS

JF DOB 5-25-95, B:L, T:L, 250 G, .286/.362/.480/.842, 70 SB, 28 CS

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=duran-000jar

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=fraley000jak

 

Aren't Fraley's numbers a bit inflated a bit by playing in the notoriously hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, where he had an .886 OPS in 168 PA?

[harmony]

Fraley is graded as 55/55 speed, Duran is 70/70. I'll disagree with you on this "ceiling."

And Jarren Duran and Jake Fraley are/were both graded an overall future value of 40:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

[notin]

And Jarren Duran and Jake Fraley are/were both graded an overall future value of 40:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jarren-duran/sa3006786/stats?position=OF

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

The problem with saying Duran is the Second Coming of Jake Fraley is no one knows what type of player Fraley is. His career right now is 70 plate appearances. He could fall anywhere in between Shane Victorino and Shane Robinson. This isn't like when you compared a young Will Middlebrooks to an established veteran in Mark Reynolds.

 

So sure, I'll bite. Duran is the next Fraley. But what is Fraley?

[harmony]

Aren't Fraley's numbers a bit inflated a bit by playing in the notoriously hitter friendly Pacific Coast League, where he had an .886 OPS in 168 PA?

That same year Jake Fraley posted his best numbers (OPS .925) at the Double A Texas League in 259 plate appearances with the Arkansas Travelers, who play in the pitcher-friendly Dickey-Stephens Park:

 

https://www.milb.com/news/gcs-66868822

[mvp 78]

The problem with saying Duran is the Second Coming of Jake Fraley is no one knows what type of player Fraley is. His career right now is 70 plate appearances. He could fall anywhere in between Shane Victorino and Shane Robinson. This isn't like when you compared a young Will Middlebrooks to an established veteran in Mark Reynolds.

 

So sure, I'll bite. Duran is the next Fraley. But what is Fraley?

 

He didn't say that. He said Duran's ceiling was Fraley. Just LOL. That's not what a ceiling is.

[harmony]

The problem with saying Duran is the Second Coming of Jake Fraley is no one knows what type of player Fraley is. His career right now is 70 plate appearances. He could fall anywhere in between Shane Victorino and Shane Robinson. This isn't like when you compared a young Will Middlebrooks to an established veteran in Mark Reynolds.

 

So sure, I'll bite. Duran is the next Fraley. But what is Fraley?

I thought of Ben Gamel independently before finding this March 2020 scouting blurb at FanGraphs:

 

"Fraley is officially in tweenersville. He plays a fine center field but he’s not such a black hole that it makes up for his lack of power on offense and enables him to profile. Perhaps plus corner defense with a slightly better hit tool than I’ve projected means Fraley can be a platoon 45 FV, but I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style, luxury bench outfielder."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-seattle-mariners/

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The problem with saying Duran is the Second Coming of Jake Fraley is no one knows what type of player Fraley is. His career right now is 70 plate appearances. He could fall anywhere in between Shane Victorino and Shane Robinson. This isn't like when you compared a young Will Middlebrooks to an established veteran in Mark Reynolds.

 

So sure, I'll bite. Duran is the next Fraley. But what is Fraley?

 

Dyslexic, late SNL comedian?

[notin]

I thought of Ben Gamel independently before finding this March 2020 scouting blurb at FanGraphs:

 

"Fraley is officially in tweenersville. He plays a fine center field but he’s not such a black hole that it makes up for his lack of power on offense and enables him to profile. Perhaps plus corner defense with a slightly better hit tool than I’ve projected means Fraley can be a platoon 45 FV, but I think enough puzzle pieces with power are floating around that he ends up a Ben Gamel style, luxury bench outfielder."

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-seattle-mariners/

 

But again, that's saying what they expect him to be, not what he is. What he is right now is an unknown commodity.

 

Bear in mind these same people making comparisons also thought Ben would be by far the lesser of the Gamel brothers...

[moonslav59]

Dyslexic, late SNL comedian?

 

LOL!

 

Good one!

[Larry Cook]

Would the astros be interested in replacing springer with Bradley?

[harmony]

Would the astros be interested in replacing springer with Bradley?

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. will land with the Houston Astros:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

[moonslav59]

MLB Trade Rumors predicts that free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. will land with the Houston Astros:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html

 

It would be nice to see him play down here.

 

I would not pay the projected cost for JBJ. We need more money for pitching, pitching, pitching.

[oldtimer]

It would be nice to see him play down here.

 

I would not pay the projected cost for JBJ. We need more money for pitching, pitching, pitching.

 

If Bradley projects at 2/12 would you pull the trigger and if not what do you see 1/4? What can you get for that?

[notin]

If Bradley projects at 2/12 would you pull the trigger and if not what do you see 1/4? What can you get for that?

 

THe projections have Bradley going for 2 /$16 to Houston and Kolten Wong for for 2 / $16 to Boston.

 

So per the projections, the Sox can afford him. But which player is the bigger need (in your eyes)?

 

Both play vacated positions. Both are Gold Glove winning defensive wizards. Bradley plays a position of one of the better upper level prospects, but there is no guarantee with that player anyway. Wong plays a position currently manned by a couple utility infielders, albeit one with a really good pedigree. Bradley is a known commodity. Wong is a much better hitter.

 

The age difference between the two is 6 months...

[Bellhorn04]

THe projections have Bradley going for 2 /$16 to Houston and Kolten Wong for for 2 / $16 to Boston.

 

So per the projections, the Sox can afford him. But which player is the bigger need (in your eyes)?

 

Both play vacated positions. Both are Gold Glove winning defensive wizards. Bradley plays a position of one of the better upper level prospects, but there is no guarantee with that player anyway. Wong plays a position currently manned by a couple utility infielders, albeit one with a really good pedigree. Bradley is a known commodity. Wong is a much better hitter.

 

The age difference between the two is 6 months...

 

Bradley can be replaced by the cheaper and possibly undervalued Pillar. There seem to be better bargains available for Bradley's position, for whatever reason.

[notin]

One could argue that since the Sox are one of the fe teams positioned to spend this off-season, and if there is any truth to avoiding players with Qualifying Offers, that the Sox are positioned to go after the best non-QO free agent out there in Marcell Ozuna, This does leave some tricky alignment in the OF, since none is really a true CF anymore.

 

The biggest and most obvious need is pitching. But if the Sox are not going after any free agents with a QO, exactly who is there for them to sign? The top (re:most expensive) starters on the market without a QO are Masahio Tanaka and Jke Odirizzi. Tanaka figures to be available and Odirizzi is not exactly expected to break the bank, assuming he is worthy at all.

 

But the Sox do have to spend. They made sure of that with the Reset Button tweet. And sicne the starting pitchers are not exactly worth going after and more of a case of "spending for the sake of spending", so should we all extend an early welcome to Marcell Ozuna?

 

And Brad Hand?

[notin]

Bradley can be replaced by the cheaper and possibly undervalued Pillar. There seem to be better bargains available for Bradley's position, for whatever reason.

 

And not at 2B?

 

I would not expect Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez or Jonathan Villar to be that much pricier than Pillar. And i fact, I like all of them easily as much as Pillar.

 

Maybe the Sox can get both Pillar and Villar! And only sign players with rhyming names!

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue that since the Sox are one of the fe teams positioned to spend this off-season, and if there is any truth to avoiding players with Qualifying Offers, that the Sox are positioned to go after the best non-QO free agent out there in Marcell Ozuna, This does leave some tricky alignment in the OF, since none is really a true CF anymore.

 

The biggest and most obvious need is pitching. But if the Sox are not going after any free agents with a QO, exactly who is there for them to sign? The top (re:most expensive) starters on the market without a QO are Masahio Tanaka and Jke Odirizzi. Tanaka figures to be available and Odirizzi is not exactly expected to break the bank, assuming he is worthy at all.

 

But the Sox do have to spend. They made sure of that with the Reset Button tweet. And sicne the starting pitchers are not exactly worth going after and more of a case of "spending for the sake of spending", so should we all extend an early welcome to Marcell Ozuna?

 

And Brad Hand?

 

Quintana

Walker

Morton

Hand

Rosenthal

 

And I can't resist:

Lester

Porcello

[Bellhorn04]

And not at 2B?

 

I would not expect Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez or Jonathan Villar to be that much pricier than Pillar. And i fact, I like all of them easily as much as Pillar.

 

Maybe the Sox can get both Pillar and Villar! And only sign players with rhyming names!

 

Tommy La Stella has the coolest name though. I'd go with him. (I'm not kidding, that's how little I know about some of these guys.)

[notin]

Quintana

Walker

Morton

Hand

Rosenthal

 

And I can't resist:

Lester

Porcello

 

And not one of those guys will break the bank. Not one of them will make you say “Wow. Resetting in 2020 was worth it now that we have [insert random mediocre pitching veteran name here].”

 

I’m not saying avoid those guys. But if the Sox are going to pass on QO free agents, fine. But you do need to make a splash. And it better be bigger than a Rick Porcello-sized splash...

[Bellhorn04]

And not one of those guys will break the bank. Not one of them will make you say “Wow. Resetting in 2020 was worth it now that we have [insert random mediocre pitching veteran name here].”

 

I’m not saying avoid those guys. But if the Sox are going to pass on QO free agents, fine. But you do need to make a splash. And it better be bigger than a Rick Porcello-sized splash...

 

Porcello is no longer a splash name, for sure. But his ability to eat innings as a back-end guy might have merit, especially in view of the question marks surrounding other key members of the rotation.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the price of a decent second baseman is the same as JBJ, I'd have to think Cora would prefer his man, Jackie. But a lot of that has to do with how much Bradley is looking forward to leaving Boston -- which returns us to the which-came-first, the Mookie or the Betts question.

 

Also, if analytics continue to drive the rebuild, and market trends, then we already know that a gifted regular second baseman like Pedroia is now just a commodity. Shifts and platoons are in style, and Cora won big with no regular there in '18, while the Sox have had musical second-sackers since Machado's take-out slide, which will be four years ago next April.

[notin]

Tommy La Stella has the coolest name though. I'd go with him. (I'm not kidding, that's how little I know about some of these guys.)

 

La Stella is a good-hit, weak glove. Villar is a good glove but weak hitter.

 

Cesar Hernandez is actually a really good player and just won a Gold Glove. He’s been a speedy leadoff hitter as well. But for some reason struggles every year to get a contract. And never gets a multi year one. No idea why a player who can hit, field and run struggles every season this way. Two possibilities I can think of are:

 

1) Hernandez is a phenomenal *******.

2) All the other teams’ GM’s think like I do and operate on the assumption Hernandez is a phenomenal *******.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And not one of those guys will break the bank. Not one of them will make you say “Wow. Resetting in 2020 was worth it now that we have [insert random mediocre pitching veteran name here].”

 

I’m not saying avoid those guys. But if the Sox are going to pass on QO free agents, fine. But you do need to make a splash. And it better be bigger than a Rick Porcello-sized splash...

 

This is why I don't necessarily believe Gammons. Cora was a splish, compared to a Bauer or Springer splash that would best serve the Sox in the standings and ratings. But if they're not going to risk losing an invaluable draft pick for such a signing, then fans better brace for a big-time trade.