2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[mvp 78]

Earlier this year FanGraphs failed to rank Deivy Grullon among the Top 39 prospects in a weak Philadelphia farm system:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-philadelphia-phillies/

 

Grullon and Seattle's Luis Torrens were among potential backup catchers dealt at this year's trade deadline. Here is one comp with ZiPS projections:

 

DG DOB 2-27-96, 6-1, 180, B:R, T:R, international free agent signed on July 2, 2012, ZiPS 2021 0.3 WAR, 2022 0.6 WAR

LT DOB 5-2-96, 6-0, 175, B:R, T:R, international free agent signed on July 2, 2012, ZiPS 2021 0.8 WAR, 2022 0.7 WAR

 

Grullon made one start after the trade while Torrens made 16 starts for Seattle. Offseason moves could change depth charts but at this point Torrens would back up Tom Murphy, Seattle's expected starting catcher.

 

Grullon has six years of team control while Torrens has five years of team control.

 

Ok, and he was a 22 year old that OPS'd 825 in AA and a 23 year old that OPS'd 850 in AAA. Seems kinda good for a backup catcher! If you think of offensive first back up catchers we have had in the past, Doug Mirabelli didn't OPS above 750 until he was 25.

 

Nobody is saying he's a future star, just that he could be a valuable bench piece (especially with the value of pitch framing going away once the robot overlords take over).

[oldtimer]

I think you are confusing me with someone else.

 

I wanted Dalbec promoted earlier than he was. I wanted Ockimey to get some PAs, this year. I was on board with calling Devers up, when many did not. I was JBJ's biggest fan, since the minors, and wanted him called up before he was. When he started out poorly, I defended him staying on the big club. Way back, I wanted Lynn and Rice called up earlier than late 1974.

 

I don't think Duran is ready, and although I doubt his bat is ML ready, it's not about PAs. The kid is just learning CF. He was an infielder his whole life.

 

Duran is no Tatis, so that was an unfair comp.

 

You clearly understood where i was coming from as it was all about Duran's readiness for promotion to the roster. He has exceptional speed and has been praised for his hitting improvements. Yes, he needs to work on going back on balls but that speed could reduce any ill effects while he accommodates to the CF position. I would invite him to Spring Training and use that to evaluate if he is worth trying in center. I would change that view if they signed JBJ to a 2 year team friendly contract. The team does need to continue to promote solid prospects so they use their budget for pitching and other weak positions, like LF.

[moonslav59]

You clearly understood where i was coming from as it was all about Duran's readiness for promotion to the roster. He has exceptional speed and has been praised for his hitting improvements. Yes, he needs to work on going back on balls but that speed could reduce any ill effects while he accommodates to the CF position. I would invite him to Spring Training and use that to evaluate if he is worth trying in center. I would change that view if they signed JBJ to a 2 year team friendly contract. The team does need to continue to promote solid prospects so they use their budget for pitching and other weak positions, like LF.

 

I think he does get invited to ST'ing. He may be called up mid season. My point was about him not being on the opening day 26 man roster. He needs some more refinement and needs to play everyday. I'm not sure about his mental make-up, but I trust our management to know when he's physically and mentally ready for the bigs. We don't want to have him riding the bench in Boston, so he's in a tough spot. He may soon be ready as a 4th OF'er in the Bigs, but he needs to play to improve.

 

I'm not convinced his bat is ML ready, yet. ST'ing sample sizes don't tell much, either, so even if he looks great in ST'ing I may still not be suggesting he start in CF opening day. Yes his speed may adequately compensate for any defensive shortcomings in CF, but I don't see any reason to force the issue.

 

Even if Bloom think Duran is ML ready, we're still going to add/sign a CF'er.

 

[notin]

You clearly understood where i was coming from as it was all about Duran's readiness for promotion to the roster. He has exceptional speed and has been praised for his hitting improvements. Yes, he needs to work on going back on balls but that speed could reduce any ill effects while he accommodates to the CF position. I would invite him to Spring Training and use that to evaluate if he is worth trying in center. I would change that view if they signed JBJ to a 2 year team friendly contract. The team does need to continue to promote solid prospects so they use their budget for pitching and other weak positions, like LF.

 

They do, and I have been saying that.

 

I think Duran tarts the season in the minors. And the Sox open the season with some stopgap CF type like Marisnick or Pillar and hope to finish the season with Duran.

 

But Duran is going to have to improve dramatically on his .634 OPS in AA to make that happen.

 

Worst case for Duran is the Sox acquire Kiermaier so that they can increase a pitching return from Tampa, since Kiermaier is signed for two very pricey seasons. But the Sox might also acquire someone like Ender Inciarte (1 yr / $9mill) from Atlanta or Lorenzo Cain (1 yr / $18 mill) from KC in the same type of trade and use him as the stopgap bridge to Duran....

[mvp 78]

But Duran is going to have to improve dramatically on his .634 OPS in AA to make that happen.

 

Yeah, probably!

 

He seemed to have worked out some new swing mechanics this year with a drastic increase in power. He had to retool his swing completely after playing at Long Beach State where they force the same hitting style on each player.

[notin]

Yeah, probably!

 

He seemed to have worked out some new swing mechanics this year with a drastic increase in power. He had to retool his swing completely after playing at Long Beach State where they force the same hitting style on each player.

 

Let's hope it sticks.

 

He'll get his shot st some point. Worst case scenario is the Sox have a new 4th outfielder/pinch runner...

[mvp 78]

Duran did OPS 806 over a 30 game stretch from 7/23 - 8/23 in 2019. He started off his promotion incredibly cold.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cora should have a good assessment of Duran before ST. The CF prospect was assigned to compete in the Winter League in Cora's hometown of Caguas, playing for Cora's coach, Ramon Vazquez.

[moonslav59]

I just don't see anything, other than off the charts speed, that demands jumping through hoops to promote him 2 levels.

 

If promoting him allows us to improve our pitching staff to make us contenders, then maybe, but we will almost certainly be acquiring an OF'er who can play CF.

[notin]

I just don't see anything, other than off the charts speed, that demands jumping through hoops to promote him 2 levels.

 

If promoting him allows us to improve our pitching staff to make us contenders, then maybe, but we will almost certainly be acquiring an OF'er who can play CF.

 

And now that Cora is on board, I am guessing it will be either Bradley or Marisnick...

[Larry Cook]

And now that Cora is on board, I am guessing it will be either Bradley or Marisnick...

 

Didn’t Cora play with Brantley?

[notin]

Didn’t Cora play with Brantley?

 

Brantley is not a guy you want in CF. Also, no. They were never teammates and Cora left Houston to manage Boston before Brantley arrived...

[moonslav59]

And now that Cora is on board, I am guessing it will be either Bradley or Marisnick...

 

I'm not sure how much pull Cora has in player acquisitions.

[oldtimer]

I'm not sure how much pull Cora has in player acquisitions.

Good point. How would we be able to tell, unless Cora and Bloom talk about it openly?

[notin]

I'm not sure how much pull Cora has in player acquisitions.

 

More than any of us yet we all make recommendations

 

And I am not so sure I'd say "pull", but he is probably part of the conversations. And since both of the starting CF's from the rings he has are available, I would expect a him to drop both names...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

More than any of us yet we all make recommendations

 

And I am not so sure I'd say "pull", but he is probably part of the conversations. And since both of the starting CF's from the rings he has are available, I would expect a him to drop both names...

 

This is why I think Springer and Correa will also be discussed by posters and actual employees of the Red Sox.

[notin]

This is why I think Springer and Correa will also be discussed by posters and actual employees of the Red Sox.

 

Correa is not a free agent. And probably a step down from Bogaerts, especialyl when you consider he cannot stay healthy anymore. He has not played as many as 111 games in a season since 2015. Hard, hard pass.

 

Springer received a QO and I am operating on the assumption that makes him a hard pass. Ozuna plus a draft pick on a lesser contract > Springer and his contract minus the draft pick...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Correa is not a free agent. And probably a step down from Bogaerts, especialyl when you consider he cannot stay healthy anymore. He has not played as many as 111 games in a season since 2015. Hard, hard pass.

 

Springer received a QO and I am operating on the assumption that makes him a hard pass. Ozuna plus a draft pick on a lesser contract > Springer and his contract minus the draft pick...

 

I'm not disagreeing on Ozuna, but Correa is a free agent after next season, so he's available and close to AC. He's also a better defensive shortstop than Bogaerts, comparable bat, and two years younger. Guaranteed he is a future option discussed by Cora. He may even be a guy who prefers playing for Cora and Boston. Of the upcoming Big Five free agent shortstops, I'd definitely rate Correa the most likely to become a Red Sox (even if Trevor Story is a better fit).

[notin]

I'm not disagreeing on Ozuna, but Correa is a free agent after next season, so he's available and close to AC. He's also a better defensive shortstop than Bogaerts, comparable bat, and two years younger. Guaranteed he is a future option discussed by Cora. He may even be a guy who prefers playing for Cora and Boston. Of the upcoming Big Five free agent shortstops, I'd definitely rate Correa the most likely to become a Red Sox (even if Trevor Story is a better fit).

 

Keep Bogaerts. He shows up for work everyday. Even if Correa is better, who will play shortstop for the 60 to 100 games he misses with his annual injury?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Keep Bogaerts. He shows up for work everyday. Even if Correa is better, who will play shortstop for the 60 to 100 games he misses with his annual injury?

 

I wouldn't trade Bogie. But I believe Bloom would.

 

I hope X is a Red Sox for life, but if he is, I expect him to play the second half of his career at a different position.

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't trade Bogie. But I believe Bloom would.

 

Isn't the mantra most people follow "Anyone can be traded if it makes the team better!" ?

 

Personally I like keeping guys like Bogie.

[moonslav59]

Isn't the mantra most people follow "Anyone can be traded if it makes the team better!" ?

 

Personally I like keeping guys like Bogie.

 

I'd like to keep him, too, and maybe with COVID, the opt out is less likely, but who knows?

 

As everyone knows, I'm a huge defense up the middle guy, and I've never been impressed with Bogey's D, but I do think that if management thinks he will opt out, he will likely be traded.

[Bellhorn04]

The opt out is after 2022, for anyone who doesn't know.

[moonslav59]

The opt out is after 2022, for anyone who doesn't know.

 

Yes, indeed, but if we think he will opt out, and our rebuild is geared more towards 2022 or 2023 than 2021, it would make sense to kick the tires on possible returns, now or next summer.

[dgalehouse]

Isn't the mantra most people follow "Anyone can be traded if it makes the team better!" ?

 

Personally I like keeping guys like Bogie.

 

A lot of those " anyone can be traded" folks are the first ones to complain when a player leaves for more money or a more preferred location. Sorry , it works both ways folks. There is no loyalty in business. And , as we know, baseball is big business.

[Kimmi]

A lot of those " anyone can be traded" folks are the first ones to complain when a player leaves for more money or a more preferred location. Sorry , it works both ways folks. There is no loyalty in business. And , as we know, baseball is big business.

 

I think players should show a little more loyalty to the team that drafted and developed them. But I agree that loyalty works both ways. The team should show a little more loyalty to their players as well, especially the home grown ones like Jon Lester. IMO, Mookie was shown that loyalty with a $300M + offer.

 

And though Bronson Arroyo wasn't home grown, I still haven't forgiven Theo for trading him.

[dgalehouse]

I think players should show a little more loyalty to the team that drafted and developed them. But I agree that loyalty works both ways. The team should show a little more loyalty to their players as well, especially the home grown ones like Jon Lester. IMO, Mookie was shown that loyalty with a $300M + offer.

 

And though Bronson Arroyo wasn't home grown, I still haven't forgiven Theo for trading him.

 

Especially after Bronson signed a " team friendly " contract. No loyalty in baseball ,or among guitar players apparently.

[notin]

Especially after Bronson signed a " team friendly " contract. No loyalty in baseball ,or among guitar players apparently.

 

Not since Bernie Williams anyway...

[Kimmi]

Especially after Bronson signed a " team friendly " contract. No loyalty in baseball ,or among guitar players apparently.

 

Exactly. I get that baseball is a business, but I don't like it. On either side.

[notin]

I wouldn't trade Bogie. But I believe Bloom would.

 

I hope X is a Red Sox for life, but if he is, I expect him to play the second half of his career at a different position.

 

Well, you can’t go by what he did in Tampa. He had no budget there.

 

Did Friedman clean house in LA? That’s the model to follow. Friedman didn’t trade Seager and sign Correa/Lindor/Baez. And he probably won’t.