A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[a700hitter]

This shows the change in the pen from 2020’s IP totals from those not here anymore or expected not to pitch much and those expected to pitch a lot in 2021:

 

Returning in 2021 & expected to pitch a lot:

25 Brasier

23 Barnes

20 Brice

8 DHern

7 Taylor

(30 Valdez)

(26 Brewer)

 

Added:

Ottavino

Andries

Sawamura

Houck or Pivetta

Seabold & others

 

Gone

43 Weber

30 mazza

29 godley

20 Springs

16 osich

14 Covey&Kickham

13 Stock&Walden

11 Hart

10 Hembree

9 Hall

8 Triggs

7 Workman

5 Lever

4 Tapia

246 innings! +56 Brewer & Valdez is over 75% of the pen IP in 2020!

it is still a bucket of spit.

[notin]

That is on Bloom.

 

Technically it's on Cora...

[notin]

I am hopeful about Sawamura, but he looked bad again today. Darwinzon still needs to learn to throw strikes more consistently. We had him last year, so he was not an addition to last years pig pen. Is Ottavino an improvement over a Workman?

 

Hernandez threw 8 IP last year. I'm expecting a vast increase in that total...

[moonslav59]

it is still a bucket of spit.

 

It will be about average.

[jacksonianmarch]

It will be about average.

 

Average is a strange expectation. I also doubt it will be. With limited starting pitching depth and questionable durability/performance of said squad, your pen will be leaned on rather heavily. Even the worst staffed pen, given low utilization, will outperform their norms. But a pen that you know will be stretched and lacks upper level talent, you’re facing headwinds. The Sox do have some talented pieces, but no true headliner with high consistent performance. I’m expecting the Sox pen to be in the upper reaches of the bottom third in baseball, somewhere around 21-24th

[mvp 78]

Average is a strange expectation. I also doubt it will be. With limited starting pitching depth and questionable durability/performance of said squad, your pen will be leaned on rather heavily. Even the worst staffed pen, given low utilization, will outperform their norms. But a pen that you know will be stretched and lacks upper level talent, you’re facing headwinds. The Sox do have some talented pieces, but no true headliner with high consistent performance. I’m expecting the Sox pen to be in the upper reaches of the bottom third in baseball, somewhere around 21-24th

 

They were 17th in pen ERA and 19th in WHIP in 2019. I think they'll be around there again this season. It's not that much of a stretch to say they could be "average" (13th - 17th in MLB).

[notin]

Average is a strange expectation. I also doubt it will be. With limited starting pitching depth and questionable durability/performance of said squad, your pen will be leaned on rather heavily. Even the worst staffed pen, given low utilization, will outperform their norms. But a pen that you know will be stretched and lacks upper level talent, you’re facing headwinds. The Sox do have some talented pieces, but no true headliner with high consistent performance. I’m expecting the Sox pen to be in the upper reaches of the bottom third in baseball, somewhere around 21-24th

 

Ottavino is 12th in MLB (discounting Felipe Vazquez, who ain't coming back) in fWAR among relievers with 3.4 along with a 2.61 ERA over the past 3 seasons. He's a pretty underrated reliever...

[Bellhorn04]

They were 17th in pen ERA and 19th in WHIP in 2019. I think they'll be around there again this season. It's not that much of a stretch to say they could be "average" (13th - 17th in MLB).

 

Sure seems like a reasonable take.

[mvp 78]

Ottavino is 12th in MLB (discounting Felipe Vazquez, who ain't coming back) in fWAR among relievers with 3.4 along with a 2.61 ERA over the past 3 seasons. He's a pretty underrated reliever...

 

Where does Ottavino rank in blown saves over that time period? Hint: it's the same as Barnes.

[mvp 78]

Where does Ottavino rank in blown saves over that time period? Hint: it's the same as Barnes.

 

And before anyone gets too worked up over blown saves, note that Baseball Reference doesn't track blown saves, but does track this: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mgr_overturn_count_career.shtml

[notin]

Where does Ottavino rank in blown saves over that time period? Hint: it's the same as Barnes.

 

Blown Saves is an overrated stat, because it is misunderstood by some. It has nothing to do with 9th inning traditional closer work. Pitchers can get Blown Saves in situations where they were very unlikely to ever get the actual save itself (i.e. in the 6th and 7th innings) and were just in line for a Hold...

[notin]

And before anyone gets too worked up over blown saves, note that Baseball Reference doesn't track blown saves, but does track this: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mgr_overturn_count_career.shtml

 

BR does track Blown Saves on the Game Logs...

[mvp 78]

Blown Saves is an overrated stat, because it is misunderstood by some. It has nothing to do with 9th inning traditional closer work. Pitchers can get Blown Saves in situations where they were very unlikely to ever get the actual save itself (i.e. in the 6th and 7th innings) and were just in line for a Hold...

 

Then why are the all time leaders in blown saves garbage players like Richard Gossage, L. Arthur Smith, Howard Sutter and Roland Fingers?

[mvp 78]

BR does track Blown Saves on the Game Logs...

 

Game logs shmame logs.

[notin]

Where does Ottavino rank in blown saves over that time period? Hint: it's the same as Barnes.

 

Yes Ottavino has converted his 72 of his 87 "save" opportunities (83%) in the last 3 seasons with 8 saves and 64 holds, and Barnes has converted 68 of his 83 opportunities (82%) with 13 saves and 55 holds. So they are similar to each other, along with being just behind Kenley Jansen (85%), Liam Hendricks (85%) and Josh Hader (86%). Some other elite relievers are not so far off, including Brad Hand (89%), Edwin Diaz (87%), and Aroldis Chapman (89%). From what I can see, the conversion leader since 2018 appears to be Kirby Yates (95%)...

[notin]

Then why are the all time leaders in blown saves garbage players like Richard Gossage, L. Arthur Smith, Howard Sutter and Roland Fingers?

 

They all pitched before the 9th inning closer specialization, and are all among the all time leaders in games played. Holds were barely worth recording then, because those guys would come in in the 7th inning and just finish the game up...

[mvp 78]

They all pitched before the 9th inning closer specialization, and are all among the all time leaders in games played. Holds were barely worth recording then, because those guys would come in in the 7th inning and just finish the game up...

 

I see somebody else is now being paid by the Arthur Rhodes lobby... Shame.

[notin]

I see somebody else is now being paid by the Arthur Rhodes lobby... Shame.

 

I think it's the anti-Rhodes lobby. And Rhodes was barely a contemporary of those pitchers.

 

Much like saves, holds and blown saves have been back-filled by a lot of these sites.

 

No one even used the term until 1952, when it only meant you finished the game regardless of score. It was not given actual criteria beyond that until 1961, and not made a stat until 1969. And it was re-defined a few times in the following seasons.

 

Yet I can pull up the stats for the 1903 Red Sox (technically the "Boston Americans") and see that Cy Young and Bill Dineen each recorded two saves.

 

And the Holds thing is even more recent than that....

[moonslav59]

Average is a strange expectation. I also doubt it will be. With limited starting pitching depth and questionable durability/performance of said squad, your pen will be leaned on rather heavily. Even the worst staffed pen, given low utilization, will outperform their norms. But a pen that you know will be stretched and lacks upper level talent, you’re facing headwinds. The Sox do have some talented pieces, but no true headliner with high consistent performance. I’m expecting the Sox pen to be in the upper reaches of the bottom third in baseball, somewhere around 21-24th

 

1.what criteria are we using?

I’d say maybe average out WAR, OPS against, xFIP and maybe ERA+

 

2. Certainly #21-24 is highly possible, maybe even likely, but I look at other teams pens and see a lot the are worse than ours- on paper and assuming decent health. Even with a starter down all year long, we may be able to use Houck or Pivetta in the pen.

 

3. I’ll project #13-19.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs projects our pen at #16 in WAR- Just 0.2 from 12th place.

[Bellhorn04]

LeBron James is now a part owner of the Red Sox...

[mvp 78]

LeBron James is now a part owner of the Red Sox...

 

Disgusting.

[jad]

Disgusting.

 

? Why? Not a big LB fan, but I sure prefer him to most professional sports team owners.

[mvp 78]

? Why? Not a big LB fan, but I sure prefer him to most professional sports team owners.

 

https://twitter.com/rashadalaiyan/status/1296487284691304449

 

But also, it was a joke.

[a700hitter]

LeBron James is now a part owner of the Red Sox...

Has an active athlete ever had an ownership interest in a professional sports franchise?

[Bellhorn04]

Has an active athlete ever had an ownership interest in a professional sports franchise?

 

Excellent question.

[guinness22]

Mario Lemieux with the Penguins I believe. They couldn’t afford his contract when they were broke and gave him a piece of the team while he was still playing IIRC. And deferred a bunch of money. Didn’t look it up though so I may be making it up LOL. Edited March 16, 2021 by guinness22

[a700hitter]

Mario Lemieux with the Penguins I believe. They couldn’t afford his contract when they were broke and gave him a piece of the team while he was still playing IIRC. And deferred a bunch of money. Didn’t look it up though so I may be making it up LOL.

I think you are right about that.

[Bellhorn04]

Mario Lemieux with the Penguins I believe. They couldn’t afford his contract when they were broke and gave him a piece of the team while he was still playing IIRC. And deferred a bunch of money. Didn’t look it up though so I may be making it up LOL.

 

Also, this goes in the 'what might have been' file, but I believe that the Bruins offered Bobby Orr a piece of the franchise when he became a free agent, but Orr's agent, the weaselly Al Eagleson, didn't disclose this to Orr because he wanted him to sign with Chicago.

[notin]

Has an active athlete ever had an ownership interest in a professional sports franchise?

 

Didn't Michael Jordan take a partial ownership role in the Washington Wizards and then come out of retirement and play for the Wizards?